GGOS-D: homogeneous reprocessing and rigorous combination of space geodetic observations

In preparation of activities planned for the realization of the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS), a group of German scientists has carried out a study under the acronym GGOS-D which closely resembles the ideas behind the GGOS initiative. The objective of the GGOS-D project was the investigation of the methodological and information-technological realization of a global geodetic-geophysical observing system and especially the integration and combination of the space geodetic observations. In the course of this project, highly consistent time series of GPS, VLBI, and SLR results were generated based on common state-of-the-art standards for modeling and parameterization. These series were then combined to consistently and accurately compute a Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF). This TRF was subsequently used as the basis to produce time series of station coordinates, Earth orientation, and troposphere parameters. In this publication, we present results of processing algorithms and strategies for the integration of the space-geodetic observations which had been developed in the project GGOS-D serving as a prototype or a small and limited version of the data handling and processing part of a global geodetic observing system. From a comparison of the GGOS-D terrestrial reference frame results and the ITRF2005, the accuracy of the datum parameters is about 5?C7?mm for the positions and 1.0?C1.5?mm/year for the rates. The residuals of the station positions are about 3?mm and between 0.5 and 1.0?mm/year for the station velocities. Applying the GGOS-D TRF, the offset of the polar motion time series from GPS and VLBI is reduced to 50 ??as (equivalent to 1.5?mm at the Earth??s surface). With respect to troposphere parameter time series, the offset of the estimates of total zenith delays from co-located VLBI and GPS observations for most stations in this study is smaller than 1.5?mm. The combined polar motion components show a significantly better WRMS agreement with the IERS 05C04 series (96.0/96.0???as) than VLBI (109.0/100.7???as) or GPS (98.0/99.5???as) alone. The time series of the estimated parameters have not yet been combined and exploited to the extent that would be possible. However, the results presented here demonstrate that the experiences made by the GGOS-D project are very valuable for similar developments on an international level as part of the GGOS development.     

Validation of IPCC AR4 models over the Iberian Peninsula

This paper reports analysis of the ability of 24 coupled global climate models that were used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to simulate the current monthly seasonal cycle of sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in the last two decades of the twentieth century. The period investigated runs from 1979 to 1998. In order to assess the performance of the models, averaged seasonal cycles and probability density functions (PDFs) calculated from model simulations are compared with the corresponding seasonal cycles, whilst PDFs are also obtained using the data from the ERA40 reanalysis and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. We found that simulated PDFs generally provided a better fit to actual PDFs than seasonal cycles do. This conclusion indicates that when evaluating model performance, the climate variability as measured by means of PDFs is not the only climatic element that should be tested. Regarding the comparison based on the seasonal cycle, results also show that the root mean square skill score is more useful than the r skill score. To rank the AR4 models, sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation variables were selected and a group of five AR4 models were identified as the models which best reproduce current climate in the area: MIROC3.2-HIRES, MPI-ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.1, BCCR-BCM2.0 and UKMO-HADGEM1. The rank obtained should not be understood in a hierarchical manner because there is a certain degree of internal variability in the model ensembles. Finally, it should be noted that these results are in good agreement with other classifications found in the scientific literature.     

Validation of a method to estimate direct normal irradiance of UVA and PAR bands from global horizontal measurements for cloudless sky conditions in Valencia, Spain, by a measurement campaign

A method is proposed to provide measurement of direct normal solar irradiance of bands with wavelength ranges (315?C400?nm, 400?C700?nm) from measurements of global horizontal band irradiance for cloudless sky conditions in Valencia. Global and normal direct irradiance data for every air mass were obtained by applying the SMART2 model to the atmosphere of Valencia. The direct normal to global irradiance ratio was parameterized versus the relative optical air mass. A measurement campaign of global horizontal and diffuse irradiance of UVA and PAR bands was carried out in Valencia, after which, the inferred direct normal irradiance was compared with those provided by the method. The result of the comparison shows that the method is acceptably accurate. The proposed model tends to underestimate the direct normal irradiance of the UVA band by 6%, although for values below 25?W/m² the model overestimates the direct irradiance by 6%, while for values above 25?W/m² the model underestimates it by 10%. The other two error estimators used ranging from 11% to 15% are similar in the defined interval measurements in relation to the whole UVA band. Regarding the PAR band, the model overestimates the direct normal irradiance of the PAR band by only 2.2%. With this, the results of the PAR band are more conclusive, as it has been found that for direct normal irradiance values higher than 280?W/m² the MBE error is almost zero and the other two estimator errors are small, about 5%.     

Statistical downscaling in the arid central Andes: uncertainty analysis of multi-model simulated temperature and precipitation

Statistical downscaling is a technique widely used to overcome the spatial resolution problem of General Circulation Models (GCMs). Nevertheless, the evaluation of uncertainties linked with downscaled temperature and precipitation variables is essential to climate impact studies. This paper shows the potential of a statistical downscaling technique (in this case SDSM) using predictors from three different GCMs (GCGM3, GFDL and MRI) over a highly heterogeneous area in the central Andes. Biases in median and variance are estimated for downscaled temperature and precipitation using robust statistical tests, respectively Mann?CWhitney and Brown?CForsythe's tests. In addition, the ability of the downscaled variables to reproduce extreme events is tested using a frequency analysis. Results show that uncertainties in downscaled precipitations are high and that simulated precipitation variables failed to reproduce extreme events accurately. Nevertheless, a greater confidence remains in downscaled temperatures variables for the area. GCMs performed differently for temperature and precipitation as well as for the different test. In general, this study shows that statistical downscaling is able to simulate with accuracy temperature variables. More inhomogeneities are detected for precipitation variables. This first attempt to test uncertainties of statistical downscaling techniques in the heterogeneous arid central Andes contributes therefore to an improvement of the quality of predictions of climate impact studies in this area.     

Five centuries of Southern Moravian drought variations revealed from living and historic tree rings

Past, present, and projected fluctuations of the hydrological cycle, associated to anthropogenic climate change, describe a pending challenge for natural ecosystems and human civilizations. Here, we compile and analyze long meteorological records from Brno, Czech Republic and nearby tree-ring measurements of living and historic firs from Southern Moravia. This unique paleoclimatic compilation together with innovative reconstruction methods and error estimates allows regional-scale May?CJune drought variability to be estimated back to ad 1500. Driest and wettest conditions occurred in 1653 and 1713, respectively. The ten wettest decades are evenly distributed throughout time, whereas the driest episodes occurred in the seventeenth century and from the 1840s onward. Discussion emphasizes agreement between the new reconstruction and documentary evidence, and stresses possible sources of reconstruction uncertainty including station inhomogeneity, limited frequency preservation, reduced climate sensitivity, and large-scale constraints.     

Regional climate simulations for the European Alpine Region��sensitivity of precipitation to large-scale flow conditions of driving input data

The MM5 modelling system has been used to perform regional climate simulations over Western Europe on a 45-km grid for the years 1971 to 2000. We focus our analysis on the impact of the driving input data on simulated precipitation in the Alpine area. Using ERA40 reanalysis data, the MM5 climatology of precipitation compares reasonably well with an observational climatology for the Alpine region. Switching to an ECHAM5 climate simulation as driving data induces excessive overprediction by up to 80% in the colder seasons there, primarily over the Alpine slopes. The large-scale flow provided by the global datasets revealed moderate differences indicating an increased number of low-pressure systems travelling from the Atlantic into the Alpine region for ECHAM5 compared with ERA40. Mean seasonal 700-hPa wind speeds correspondingly showed higher values for the ECHAM5 driven simulation in the central Alps. Partitioning three-hourly 700-hPa winds according to direction and speed in the central Alps specifically revealed a distinct shift to stronger westerly and north-westerly winds. Furthermore, aggregating three-hourly rainfall amounts to the same wind direction and wind speed intervals as for the wind statistics revealed strongly intensified precipitation due to the overly intense westerly winds, implying too intense orographic precipitation enhancement.     

Objective identification of synoptic meteorological patterns favouring African dust intrusions into the marine boundary layer of the subtropical eastern north Atlantic region

Synoptic geopotential height anomalies patterns favouring African dust outbreaks into the marine boundary layer (MBL) of the subtropical Eastern North Atlantic Region (SENAR) were objectively identified. The proportion of the total variance explained by each of these patterns was also calculated. Dust intrusions into the MBL of the SENAR were identified using total suspended particles (TSP) data at a rural background station in Tenerife Island (El Rio station, ER). Geopotential height anomalies at 1,000, 850, 700 and 500?hPa, respectively, in days of African dust intrusion in the period 1998?C2003 were grouped in monthly sets. Two different but complementary methods (K-means and Principal Components) were applied to daily geopotential height anomalies for each month and for each pressure level in case of African dust intrusion. Three principal geopotential height anomalies patterns were found. Type I consist on a high-pressure system over Europe that affects North Africa, occasionally giving rise to a ridge. The Canary Islands are in the south-west flank of this high-pressure system. This pattern is dominant throughout the whole year. Type II and type III patterns consist on a low located to the northeast and southeast of the Canary Islands, respectively, coupled with a high over the Mediterranean basin and/or North Africa. Two case analyses are presented, as well as a systematic validation of the meteorological pattern classification for all dust intrusions detected at ER station within the period 2004?C2007.     

Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment (PASE): dynamics and chemistry of the south Pacific tropical trade wind regime

The Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment (PASE) was a comprehensive airborne study of the chemistry and dynamics of the tropical trade wind regime (TWR) east of the island of Kiritibati (Christmas Island, 157º, 20?? W, 2º 52?? N). Christmas Island is located due south of Hawaii. Geographically it is in the northern hemisphere yet it is 6?C12º south of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) which places it in the southern hemisphere meteorologically. Christmas Island trade winds in August and September are from east south east at 3?C15 ms^?1. Clouds, if present, are fair weather cumulus located in the middle layer of the TWR which is frequently labeled the buffer layer (BuL). PASE provided clear support for the idea that small particles (80 nm) were subsiding into the tropical trade wind regime (TWR) where sulfur chemistry transformed them to larger particles. Sulfur chemistry promoted the growth of some of these particles until they were large enough to activate to cloud drops. This process, promoted by sulfur chemistry, can produce a cooling effect due to the increase in cloud droplet density and changes in cloud droplet size. These increases in particle size observed in PASE promote additional cooling due to direct scattering from the aerosol. These potential impacts on the radiation balance in the TWR are enhanced by the high solar irradiance and ocean albedo of the TWR. Finally because of the large area involved there is a large factional impact on earth??s radiation budget. The TWR region near Christmas Island appears to be similar to the TWR that persists in August and September, from southwest of the Galapagos to at least Christmas Island. Transport in the TWR between the Galapagos and Christmas involves very little precipitation which could have removed the aerosol thus explaining at least in part the high concentrations of CCN (??300 at 0.5% supersaturation) observed in PASE. As expected the chemistry of sulfur in the trade winds was found to be initiated by the emission of DMS into the convective boundary layer (BL, the lowest of three layers). However, the efficiency with which this DMS is converted to SO₂ has been brought into further question by this study. This unusual result has come about as result of our using two totally different approaches for addressing this long standing question. In the first approach, based on accepted kinetic rate constants and detailed steps for the oxidation of DMS reflecting detailed laboratory studies, a DMS to SO₂ conversion efficiency of 60?C73% was determined. This range of values lies well within the uncertainties of previous studies. However, using a completely different approach, involving a budget analysis, a conversion value of 100% was estimated. The latter value, to be consistent with all other sulfur studies, requires the existence of a completely independent sulfur source which would emit into the atmosphere at a source strength approximately half that measured for DMS under tropical Pacific conditions. At this time, however, there is no credible scientific observation that identifies what this source might be. Thus, the current study has opened for future scientific investigation the major question: is there yet another major tropical marine source of sulfur? Of equal importance, then, is the related question, is our global sulfur budget significantly in error due to the existence of an unknown marine source of sulfur? Pivotal to both questions may be gaining greater insight about the intermediate DMS oxidation species, DMSO, for which rather unusual measurements have been reported in previous marine sulfur studies. The 3 pptv bromine deficit observed in PASE must be lost over the lifetime of the aerosol which is a few days. This observation suggests that the primary BrO production rate is very small. However, considering the uncertainties in these observations and the possible importance of secondary production of bromine radicals through aerosol surface reactions, to completely rule out the importance of bromine chemistry under tropical conditions at this time cannot be justified. This point has been brought into focus from prior work that even at levels of 1 pptv, the effect of BrO oxidation on DMS can still be quite significant. Thus, as in the case of DMS conversion to SO₂, future studies will be needed. In the latter case there will need to be a specific focus on halogen chemistry. Such studies clearly must involve specific measurements of radical species such as BrO.     

Multidecadal changes in winter circulation-climate relationship in Europe: frequency variations, within-type modifications, and long-term trends

Using pressure fields classified by the SANDRA algorithm, this study investigates the changes in the relationship between North Atlantic/European sea level pressure (SLP) and gridded European winter (DJF) temperature and precipitation back to 1750. Important changes in the frequency of the SLP clusters are found, though none of them indicating significant long-term trends. However, for the majority of the SLP clusters a tendency toward overall warmer and partly wetter winter conditions is found, most pronounced over the last decades. This suggests important within-type variations, i.e. the temperature and precipitation fields related to a particular SLP pattern change their characteristics over time. Using a decomposition scheme we find for temperature and precipitation that within-type-related variations dominate over those due to changed frequencies of the SLP clusters: Approximately 70% (60%) of European winter temperature (precipitation) variations can be explained by within-type changes, most strongly expressed over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. This indicates that the current European winter warming cannot be explained by changed frequencies of the SLP patterns alone, but to a larger degree by changed characteristics of the patterns themselves. Potential sources of within-type variations are discussed.     

Analysis of the tropical climate variability in a two-column framework

This work examines the relevance of a classical two-column modeling framework of the tropical climate in terms of observed natural variability. A method is developed to analyze the observed tropical climate in a simple framework that features a moist, ascending column and a dry, subsiding one. This method is used to analyze the natural variability of the tropical climate in the ERA40 reanalysis and in ISCCP satellite data. It appears that the seasonal cycle of the tropic-wide sea surface temperature (SST) is almost linearly linked to the seasonal cycle of the relative area of the moist regions, as predicted by the sensitivity of the two-column models. A more detailed analysis shows that this link is the product of a complex interaction and adjustments between the moist and dry regions. The seasonal cycle of low-cloud cover in the dry regions also appears to interact with the SST seasonal cycle: the low-cloud cover influences the tropic-wide SST via its direct radiative forcing on the local SST and it appears to be controlled by the SST difference between moist and dry regions. By contrast, the SST interannual variability appears to be driven by the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with no significant impact from the changes in the relative area of the moist regions or in the low-cloud cover in the dry regions independently of the ENSO. ENSO-related changes in the area of moist regions and low-cloud cover constitute negative feedbacks on the ENSO-related SST variability.