Reconstructions of spring/summer precipitation for the Eastern Mediterranean from tree-ring widths and its connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation

This study represents the first large-scale systematic dendroclimatic sampling focused on developing chronologies from different species in the eastern Mediterranean region. Six reconstructions were developed from chronologies ranging in length from 115 years to 600 years. The first reconstruction (1885–2000) was derived from principal components (PCs) of 36 combined chronologies. The remaining five, 1800–2000, 1700–2000, 1600–2000, 1500–2000 and 1400–2000 were developed from PCs of 32, 18, 14, 9, and 7 chronologies, respectively. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1931–2000 show good levels of skill for all reconstructions. The longest period of consecutive dry years, defined as those with less than 90% of the mean of the observed May–August precipitation, was 5 years (1591–1595) and occurred only once during the last 600 years. The longest reconstructed wet period was 5 years (1601–1605 and 1751–1755). No long term trends were found in May–August precipitation during the last few centuries. Regression maps are used to identify the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on regional precipitation. In general, tree-ring indices are influenced by May–August precipitation, which is driven by anomalous below (above) normal pressure at all atmospheric levels and by convection (subsidence) and small pressure gradients at sea level. These atmospheric conditions also control the anomaly surface air temperature distribution which indicates below (above) normal values in the southern regions and warmer (cooler) conditions north of around 40°N. A compositing technique is used to extract information on large-scale climate signals from extreme wet and dry summers for the second half of the twentieth century and an independent reconstruction over the last 237 years. Similar main modes of atmospheric patterns and surface air temperature distribution related to extreme dry and wet summers were identified both for the most recent 50 years and the last 237 years. Except for the last few decades, running correlation analyses between the major European-scale circulation patterns and eastern Mediteranean spring/summer precipitation over the last 237 years are non-stationary and insignificant, suggesting that local and/or sub-regional geographic factors and processes are important influences on tree-ring variability over the last few centuries.     

Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment

The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.     

Graben width controlling syn-rift sedimentation: the Palaeogene southern Upper Rhine Graben as an example

Eocene to Early Oligocene syn-rift deposits of the southern Upper Rhine Graben (URG) accumulated in restricted environments. Sedimentation was controlled by local clastic supply from the graben flanks, as well as by strong intra-basinal variations in accommodation space due to differential tectonic subsidence, that in turn led to pronounced lateral variations in depositional environment. Three large-scale cycles of intensified evaporite sedimentation were interrupted by temporary changes towards brackish or freshwater conditions. They form three major base level cycles that can be traced throughout the basin, each of them representing a stratigraphic sub-unit. A relatively constant amount of horizontal extension (ΔL) in the range of 4–5 km has been estimated for the URG from numerous cross-sections. The width of the rift (L _f ), however, varies between 35 and more than 60 km, resulting in a variable crustal stretching factor between the bounding masterfaults. Apart from block tilting, tectonic subsidence was, therefore, largely controlled by changes in the initial rift width (L ₀). The along-strike variations of the graben width are responsible for the development of a deep, trough-like evaporite basin (Potash Basin) in the narrowest part of the southern URG, adjacent to shallow areas in the wider parts of the rift such as the Colmar Swell in the north and the Rhine Bresse Transfer Zone that delimits the URG to the south. Under a constant amount of extension, the along-strike variation in rift width is the principal factor controlling depo-centre development in extensional basins.     

New insights into the P- and S-wave velocity structure of the D" discontinuity beneath the Cocos plate

Broad-band P - and S -waves from earthquakes in South America recorded at Californian network stations are analysed to image lateral variations of the D"-discontinuity beneath the Cocos plate. We apply two array processing methods to the data set: a simplified migration method to the P -wave data set and a double-array method to both the P - and S -wave data sets, allowing us to compare results from the two methods. The double-array method images a dipping reflector at a depth range from 2650 to 2700 km in the southern part of the study area. We observe a step-like topography of 100 km to a shallower reflector at about 2600 km depth to the north, as well as evidence for a second (deeper) reflector at a depth range from 2700 to 2750 km in the north. Results from the simplified migration agree well with those from the double-array method, similarly locating a large step in reflector depth in a similar location (about 2650 km depth in the south and about 2550 km in the north) as well as the additional deeper reflector at the depth of about 2750 km in the north. Waveform modelling of the reflected waves from both methods suggests a positive velocity contrast for S waves, but a negative velocity contrast for P waves for the upper reflector in agreement with predictions from mineral physical calculations for a post-perovskite phase transition. The data also show some evidence for the existence of another deeper reflector that could indicate a double intersection of the geotherm with the post-perovskite stability field, that is, the back-transformation of post-perovskite to perovskite close to the core–mantle boundary.     

Dissolved Humic Substances Can Directly Affect Freshwater Organisms

Direct effects of pure humic substance (BS1 FA) on three different aquatic organisms (Ceratophyllum demersum, Dreissena polymorpha, and Chaetogammarus ischnus) were demonstrated in this study. Exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations (0.5 mg/L) of this humic substance led to the activation of the microsomal and soluble glutathione S‐transferase (GST) in Ceratophyllum demersum. Exposure to 3‐chlorobiphenyl showed also an elevation of GST activity, which is due to the proposed detoxication metabolism of these chlorinated biphenyl. Coexposure to a mixture of 3‐chlorobiphenyl and BS1 FA showed a reduction of enzyme elevation, but still significant over an untreated control. The direct impact of humic substances seems not to be restricted to a specific class of organisms.     

Man-Made earthquakes Ein Weg zum Verständnis natürlicher seismischer Aktivität

The occurrence of earthquakes causing damage in regions, where no seismic activity had been observed previously, has confirmed the suspicion that the construction of high dams and pumped storage hydroelectric plants as well as the pressing of fluid into petroleum reservoirs and of waste water into deep boreholes will trigger the release of tectonic stresses in the earth's crust. A great number of examples indicates that a similar mechanism must be operative in all cases. Comparing the results of laboratory experiments to seismological observations, it is evident that the causes for the “loss of internal balance” must be sought in zones of low velocity and of relatively high energy absorption within the upper part of the earth's crust.     

An experimental study of illite dissolution kinetics as a function of ph from 1.4 to 12.4 and temperature from 5 to 50°C

Dissolution rates of natural illite (Illite du Puy) were measured from Si release rates during closed system experiments at pH ranging from 1.4 to 12.4 and temperatures ranging from 5 to 50°C. Experiments performed at 4<pH<11 exhibited reactive fluid Si/Al concentration ratios that were inconsistent with stoichiometric illite dissolution likely due to secondary phase precipitation. In contrast, after an initial preferential release of aluminum relative to silicon, the reactive fluid Si/Al concentration ratio evolution was consistent with stoichiometric illite dissolution for all experiments conducted at 4>pH>11. Si release rate decreased with time during all experiments; for those experiments performed at 4>pH>11 this observation can be attributed to either 1) changing reactive surface area; 2) the effect of initial fine particle dissolution; or 3) a negative order of the illite dissolution reaction with respect to aqueous Al and/or Si. Measured dissolution rates exhibited a typical variation with pH; rates decrease with increasing pH at acid conditions, minimize at near to neutral pH and increase with increasing pH at basic conditions. An empirical expression describing rates obtained in the present study is given by

     

Detailed observational study of a weak Echo region

High resolution 3-cm weather radar was used to observe the three dimensional structure of a weak echo region of a severe convective storm in northern Minnesota, U.S.A. Observations show that a seemingly steady-state updraft in the lower portion of the storm broke into an unsteady structure in the upper levels. This is interpreted as indicating that precipitation loading gradually decelerated the upper reaches of the updraft, resulting in periodic breakout of a new updraft core on the inflow side. This periodic behavior of the updraft may be related to hailstreaks and what has been termed the multi-celled storm.     

On the impact of salinity observations on state estimates in Ems Estuary

The hydrodynamics of Ems Estuary are dominated by tides and their interaction with buoyancy forcing. Such an environment is challenging for any effort to bring together observations and model results. In this study, we investigate how salinity measurements in the Ems Estuary affect the reconstruction of the salinity field. Similar to the traditional observing system experiments, the impact of specific observational arrays is simulated in the framework of statistical experiments. The experimental algorithm mainly relies on the model covariance matrix. Each experiment results in an estimate of the reconstruction error. The analysed observation configurations involve single and multiple, as well as stationary and non-stationary observing arrays. Generally, the reconstruction of the ocean state improves with increasing the density of observations. It appears that certain locations are more favourable for reconstruction than others. In fact, the regions separating the main dynamical realms resist strongest to the reconstruction effort. Extending the covariance matrix by the temporal cross-covariances between the model grid points enables to evaluate the impact of observations taken from a moving platform. This approach further improves the outcome of the experiments, resulting in reconstruction errors near zero with the exception of the tidal river. The cross-covariance information is able to tackle even the irregular dynamics arising on the border between the different physical regimes.