Performance of constitutive models in predicting behavior of remolded clay

The performance of several soil constitutive models was evaluated by comparing experimental results and simulated behavior of a medium plasticity clay. Input parameters for the soil constitutive models were obtained from triaxial compression and extension tests on normally and overconsolidated medium plasticity clay. The soil models employed for this study were the Cam Clay, Modified Cam Clay, 3-SKH, and S-CLAY1 models. In order to investigate the influence of some of the input parameters on the performance of the models, sensitivity analyses were also performed. The comparisons demonstrate that the Cam Clay model was able to predict the normally consolidated compressive behavior of medium plasticity clay. Both 3-SKH and Cam Clay models were able to produce acceptable predictions for stress?Cstrain and stress path behavior for overconsolidated compression of the soil. The 3-SKH model did not perform satisfactorily for predicting pore pressure variations, while the Cam Clay model demonstrated fairly acceptable predictions. For the normally consolidated reduced extension test, the Modified Cam Clay and S-CLAY1 models performed better than the Cam Clay and 3-SKH models in predicting the stress?Cstrain curve, pore pressure variations, and stress path.     

On the Tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate Model

Most of the current coupled general circulation models show a strong warm bias in the eastern Tropical Atlantic. In this paper, various sensitivity experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) are described. A largely reduced warm bias and an improved seasonal cycle in the eastern Tropical Atlantic are simulated in one particular version of KCM. By comparing the stable and well-tested standard version with the sensitivity experiments and the modified version, mechanisms contributing to the reduction of the eastern Atlantic warm bias are identified and compared to what has been proposed in literature. The error in the spring and early summer zonal winds associated with erroneous zonal precipitation seems to be the key mechanism, and large-scale coupled ocean?Catmosphere feedbacks play an important role in reducing the warm bias. Improved winds in boreal spring cause the summer cooling in the eastern Tropical Atlantic (ETA) via shoaling of the thermocline and increased upwelling, and hence reduced sea surface temperature (SST). Reduced SSTs in the summer suppress convection and favor the development of low-level cloud cover in the ETA region. Subsurface ocean structure is shown to be improved, and potentially influences the development of the bias. The strong warm bias along the southeastern coastline is related to underestimation of low-level cloud cover and the associated overestimation of surface shortwave radiation in the same region. Therefore, in addition to the primarily wind forced response at the equator both changes in surface shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation contribute significantly to reduction of the warm bias from summer to fall.     

What future for the voluntary carbon offset market after Paris? An explorative study based on the Discursive Agency Approach

The Paris Agreement heralds a new era in international climate governance. Yet, the Agreement's implementation rulebook is still under negotiation. During this transition, from the Kyoto Protocol to the new regime under the Paris Agreement, many non-state actors are facing a high level of uncertainty. In particular, actors in the voluntary carbon market are struggling to define their new role. The business model of producing carbon credits in developing countries and selling them elsewhere is threatened. Although its financial significance and achieved emission reductions are limited, the voluntary market's role as an incubator for innovation has made it a prominent representative of non-state mitigation mechanisms. Therefore, we ask: What effects will the regime change to the Paris Agreement have on the voluntary carbon offset market (VCM) and how does it react to these effects?

This study analyses perceptions of, and reactions to, the new regulatory environment within the VCM. We apply the Discursive Agency Approach to scrutinize the institutions, discourses and influential agents involved in the VCM, and the strategic practices they apply to manage the transition towards the Paris regime. We find two dominant coping strategies: to align the voluntary offsetting mechanism with the Paris Agreement, and to re-invent its overall purpose as a tool to deliver sustainable development rather than solely emission reductions. Based on these results, we outline ‘thought spaces’ for a future VCM: (1) voluntary and non-party offsetting beyond nationally determined contributions (NDCs), (2) results-based financing for emission reductions and sustainable development, and (3) private climate action under international oversight.

Key policy insights

• The Paris Agreement threatens the VCM's business model, prompting market agents to frame and legitimize their work in new ways.

• The voluntary market's viability depends on the future accounting rules for emission reductions under Paris Agreement Article 6. Discursive struggles surround the risks of double counting and NDC ambitions.

• Based on an understanding of the past, we can draw lessons from agents’ attempts to re-legitimize their role under the new Paris Agreement; their future visions will shape the debates about this nascent regime.

     

Process-Driven Direction-Dependent Asymmetry: Identification and Quantification of Directional Dependence in Spatial Fields

Natural processes generate spatial fields which reflect their specific properties. In this paper the effect of the direction of processes on the resulting spatial fields is investigated. This is done by extending the concept of reversibility used for time series to space. A novel copula based measure of asymmetry is defined which is an indicator of directional dependence. Contrary to traditional geostatistics where all points separated by a vector are considered irrespective of its sign, in this study the direction of the vector is also taken into consideration, leading to differences in the dependence corresponding to the vector \({\mathbf {h}}\) and \({-}{\mathbf {h}}\). The concept of directional dependence and the corresponding measure of asymmetry are defined using spatial copulas, and are thus independent of the scale of measurement. The result is a bivariate directional third-order moment based measure which can identify the direction in which the processes generating the spatial field acted. A statistical test to find the statistical significance of the asymmetry indicating directional dependence is presented. The methodology is tested on a number of synthetic and observed cases. Precipitation and groundwater quality parameters obtained using numerical models are first investigated. Regular dense grids obtained by numerical simulations show good correspondence between properties of the modeled processes and the new measure introduced. Measured variables observed on sparse irregular networks show similar behavior to the theoretical examples. Mean flow directions in groundwater and advection directions of precipitation fields can be detected from single snapshots. As a further example, dominant wind directions in the Sahara are found by investigating the digital terrain model.     

Speleothems and pine trees as sensitive indicators of environmental pollution – A case study of the effect of uranium-ore mining in Hungary

Four decades of U ore production in Hungary provides an opportunity to study the possible environmental effects of mining. The study reveals significant changes in chemical composition of a stalagmite (cave deposit). The good fit between U content changes in the studied deposit and the U ore production rate support the assumption of the relationship with mining activity. An independent chemoenviromental archive, living pine (Pinus sylvestis) trees were also investigated. Data on pine tree cores collected from the same region show different levels of pollution (Cu, Zn, Mn, U) after the 1950s and 1960s, linked to the opening of mines and subsequent dust fallout around the site. Elevated concentrations of detritally derived elements (Si, Al, Th) coupled with a rise in U concentration and change in δ²³⁴U values of the stalagmite suggest increasing amounts of mine-derived dust from 1 to 3 km distance that settled and washed into the karst system. The combined usage of different proxies not only provides historic records for the anthropogenic impact in the environment, but also allows the timing of U concentration increases within the stalagmite and the identification of elemental behavior from the pollution. This study shows that complementary geochemical archives such as stalagmites and tree rings used together can enhance understanding of past environmental contamination.     

SO2 degassing from Turrialba Volcano linked to seismic signatures during the period 2008–2012

In 1996, after 150 years of relative calm, Turrialba Volcano was reawakening. A visible plume and serious damage to surrounding vegetation due to acid rain are the most obvious signals. As part of the Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change project, four gas-monitoring stations were initially installed on the west flank of the volcano with the purpose of measuring sulphur dioxide emissions during this period of increased activity using the scanning-differential optical absorption spectroscopy technique. We present here the results of semicontinuous gas flux measurements over a period of 5 years (from 2008 to 2012), providing a novel data set that documents a relatively rapid increase in SO₂ fluxes from around 350 t day^?1 to around 4,000 t day^?1 leading up to an eruptive period, followed by a gradual return to the former baseline values. Gas flux data were also compared with seismic data for selected periods of interest, providing insights into the link between degassing and seismicity. The most important result from this comparison is the identification of an inflexion point in the gas emissions followed by a clearly increasing trend in seismic activity, distinguishable 6 months prior to a phreatic eruptive event that occurred on 5 January 2010. This signal can be interpreted as a possible indicator of future eruptive events. Monitoring of SO₂ thus complements seismic monitoring as a forecasting tool for eruptive events. Such monitoring is critical considering the proximity of Turrialba to the Central Valley, an area inhabited by more than 50 % of Costa Rica’s population.     

Distribution of intact and core GDGTs in marine sediments

We conducted a survey of archaeal GDGT (glycerol dibiphytanyl glycerol tetraether) distributions in marine sediments deposited in a range of depositional settings. The focus was comparison of two pools presumed to have distinct geobiological significance, i.e. intact polar GDGTs (IP GDGTs) and core GDGTs (C GDGTs). The former pool has been suggested to be related to living communities of benthic archaea in marine sediments, while the latter is commonly interpreted to consist of molecular fossils from past planktonic archaeal communities that inhabited the surface ocean. Understanding the link between these two pools is important for assessment of the validity of current molecular proxies for sedimentary archaeal biomass and past sea surface temperatures. The relative distributions of GDGTs in the two pools in a core at a CH₄ rich site in the Black Sea provide evidence for in situ production of glycosidic IP GDGTs and their subsequent degradation to corresponding C GDGTs on timescales that are short in geological terms. In addition, we monitored the relationship between the IP GDGT and C GDGT pools in a sample set from various ocean basins with subseafloor depth from a few cm to 320 m and 0 to 4 Myr in age. Notable differences between the two pools can be summarized as follows: the GDGT with acyclic biphytanes, GDGT-0, and its analogues with two and three cyclopentane moieties (GDGT-2 and -3) are generally more abundant in the pool of IP GDGTs, while crenarchaeol tends to be more abundant in the C GDGT pool. Consequently, the ring index is generally higher for the C GDGTs while TEX₈₆, a molecular proxy ratio not considering the two major GDGTs, tends to be higher in the IP GDGT pool. These differences in the proportion of individual GDGTs in the two pools are probably due to in situ production of IP GDGTs with distributions differing from those of C GDGTs. Despite these differences, we observed significant correlation of these two ratios between the two pools. Specifically, in both pools TEX₈₆ is high in sediments from warm oceanic regimes and low in cold regimes. We discuss these relationships and suggest that recycling of core GDGTs by benthic archaea is an important mechanism linking both molecular pools.     

Using global node-based velocity in random walk particle tracking in variably saturated porous media: application to contaminant leaching from road constructions

Precise and efficient numerical simulation of transport processes in subsurface systems is a prerequisite for many site investigation or remediation studies. Random walk particle tracking (RWPT) methods have been introduced in the past to overcome numerical difficulties when simulating propagation processes in porous media such as advection-dominated mass transport. Crucial for the precision of RWPT methods is the accuracy of the numerically calculated ground water velocity field. In this paper, a global node-based method for velocity calculation is used, which was originally proposed by Yeh (Water Resour Res 7:1216–1225, 1981). This method is improved in three ways: (1) extension to unstructured grids, (2) significant enhancement of computational efficiency, and (3) extension to saturated (groundwater) as well as unsaturated systems (soil water). The novel RWPT method is tested with numerical benchmark examples from the literature and used in two field scale applications of contaminant transport in saturated and unsaturated ground water. To evaluate advective transport of the model, the accuracy of the velocity field is demonstrated by comparing several published results of particle pathlines or streamlines. Given the chosen test problem, the global node-based velocity estimation is found to be as accurate as the CK method (Cordes and Kinzelbach in Water Resour Res 28(11):2903–2911, 1992) but less accurate than the mixed or mixed-hybrid finite element methods for flow in highly heterogeneous media. To evaluate advective–diffusive transport, a transport problem studied by Hassan and Mohamed (J Hydrol 275(3–4):242–260, 2003) is investigated here and evaluated using different numbers of particles. The results indicate that the number of particles required for the given problem is decreased using the proposed method by about two orders of magnitude without losing accuracy of the concentration contours as compared to the published numbers.     

Nondestructive density determination on marine sediment cores from gamma-ray attenuation measurements

We describe an improved nondestructive technique for density measurement based on gamma-ray absorption that permits construction of high-resolution density profiles of marine sediment cores. The system is capable of resolving vertical density variations with a spatial resolution of 4 mm and absolute accuracy of ± 1%. Comparison with conventional density determination on samples confirms the absolute accuracy. In addition to standard vertical profiling, a core rotation option is included to measure density as a function of rotation angle. This allows the quantification of the variability of density within a layer and detection of inhomogenities like icerafted debris or biogenic structures.     

STAGES: the Space Telescope A901/2 Galaxy Evolution Survey

We present an overview of the Space Telescope A901/2 Galaxy Evolution Survey (STAGES). STAGES is a multiwavelength project designed to probe physical drivers of galaxy evolution across a wide range of environments and luminosity. A complex multicluster system at   z ∼ 0.165  has been the subject of an 80-orbit F606W Hubble Space Telescope (HST) /Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) mosaic covering the full     span of the supercluster. Extensive multiwavelength observations with XMM–Newton , GALEX, Spitzer , 2dF, Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope and the 17-band COMBO-17 photometric redshift survey complement the HST imaging. Our survey goals include simultaneously linking galaxy morphology with other observables such as age, star formation rate, nuclear activity and stellar mass. In addition, with the multiwavelength data set and new high-resolution mass maps from gravitational lensing, we are able to disentangle the large-scale structure of the system. By examining all aspects of an environment we will be able to evaluate the relative importance of the dark matter haloes, the local galaxy density and the hot X-ray gas in driving galaxy transformation. This paper describes the HST imaging, data reduction and creation of a master catalogue. We perform the Sérsic fitting on the HST images and conduct associated simulations to quantify completeness. In addition, we present the COMBO-17 photometric redshift catalogue and estimates of stellar masses and star formation rates for this field. We define galaxy and cluster sample selection criteria, which will be the basis for forthcoming science analyses, and present a compilation of notable objects in the field. Finally, we describe the further multiwavelength observations and announce public access to the data and catalogues.