Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?

Millions of people in the geopolitically important region of Central Asia depend on water from snow- and glacier-melt driven international rivers, most of all the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The riparian countries of these rivers have experienced recurring water allocation conflicts ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. Will climate change exacerbate water stress and thus conflicts? We have developed a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-runoff model for the Syr Darya to quantify impacts and show that climatic changes are likely to have consequences on runoff seasonality due to earlier snow-melt. This will increase water stress in unregulated catchments because less water will be available for irrigation in the summer months. Threats from geohazards, above all glacier lake outbursts, are likely to increase as well. The area at highest risk is the densely populated, agriculturally productive, and politically unstable Fergana Valley. Targeted infrastructural developments will be required in the region. If the current mismanagement of water and energy resources can be replaced with more effective resource allocation mechanisms through the strengthening of transboundary institutions, Central Asia will be able to successfully address these future climate-related challenges.     

Development of the mixed conifer forest in northern New Mexico and its relationship to Holocene environmental change

Chihuahueños Bog (2925 m) in the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico contains one of the few records of late-glacial and postglacial development of the mixed conifer forest in southwestern North America. The Chihuahueños Bog record extends to over 15,000 cal yr BP. An Artemisia steppe, then an open Picea woodland grew around a small pond until ca. 11,700 cal yr BP when Pinus ponderosa became established. C/N ratios, δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values indicate both terrestrial and aquatic organic matter was incorporated into the sediment. Higher percentages of aquatic algae and elevated C/N ratios indicate higher lake levels at the opening of the Holocene, but a wetland developed subsequently as climate warmed. From ca. 8500 to 6400 cal yr BP the pond desiccated in what must have been the driest period of the Holocene there. C/N ratios declined to their lowest Holocene levels, indicating intense decomposition in the sediment. Wetter conditions returned after 6400 cal yr BP, with conversion of the site to a sedge bog as groundwater levels rose. Higher charcoal influx rates after 6400 cal yr BP probably result from greater biomass production rates. Only minor shifts in the overstory species occurred during the Holocene, suggesting that mixed conifer forest dominated throughout the record.     

Pb and other ore metals in modern seafloor tectonic environments: Evidence from melt inclusions

Many modern seafloor tectonic environments are host to hydrothermal systems and associated polymetallic sulfide deposits. Metal transport and precipitation are controlled by magmatic processes such as pre-eruptive degassing and the hydrothermal cycle. The original availability of Pb and other ore metals in a given setting is dependent on concentrations in the original magmatic source or additional enrichment processes. We have examined the Pb budget of melt inclusions from nine modern seafloor settings representing back-arcs, mid-ocean ridges and seamounts. Melt inclusions provide information on the characteristics of parental magmas, including insights into metal budgets. Trace element data in melt inclusions hosted in plagioclase, olivine and pyroxene were obtained by laser-ablation inductively-coupled mass-spectrometry.Results from back-arcs emphasize the impact of slab-subduction and dehydration processes on the chemical characteristics of generated magmas. Volatile- and fluid-mobile element-rich melt inclusions at Manus basin and Okinawa trough reflect a robust contribution of elements from the subducting slab as evidenced by relatively low Ce/Pb ratios. At Bransfield strait, on the other hand, melt inclusions are volatile poor, and fluid-mobile element ratios are similar to mid-ocean ridge values indicating little or no contribution from the slab. High Cu concentrations at Manus basin and Okinawa trough can be explained by fluxing of ferric iron from the subducting slab benefiting the production of sulfate over sulfide.Metal budgets for seamounts located on and nearby the axis of mid-ocean ridge segments appear to be independent of any input of mantle plume material. Results from the southern Explorer ridge (strong lower mantle influence, transitional- and enriched-MORBs), Pito and Axial seamounts (moderate lower mantle influence, transitional-MORBs) and a Foundation near-ridge seamount (little to no mantle influence, normal-MORB) show that, despite similar tectonic environments and varying contributions of mantle plume material, Cu, Zn and Pb values do not vary significantly between the enriched and non-enriched magma components of a given setting.     

NIGHTGLOW: an instrument to measure the Earth’s nighttime ultraviolet glow—results from the first engineering flight

We have designed and built an instrument to measure and monitor the “nightglow” of the Earth’s atmosphere in the near ultraviolet (NUV). In this paper we describe the design of this instrument, called NIGHTGLOW. NIGHTGLOW is designed to be flown from a high altitude research balloon, and circumnavigate the globe. NIGHTGLOW is a NASA, University of Utah, and New Mexico State University project. A test flight took place from Palestine, Texas on July 5, 2000, lasting about 8 h. The instrument performed well and landed safely in Stiles, Texas with little damage. The resulting measurements of the NUV nightglow are compared with previous measurements from sounding rockets and balloons.     

Climate sensitivity to changes in land surface characteristics

Using a recently developed global vegetation distribution, topography, and shorelines for the Early Eocene in conjunction with the Genesis version 2.0 climate model, we investigate the influences that these new boundary conditions have on global climate. Global mean climate changes little in response to the subtle changes we made; differences in mean annual and seasonal surface temperatures over northern and southern hemispheric land, respectively, are on the order of 0.5°C. In contrast, and perhaps more importantly, continental scale climate exhibits significant responses. Increased peak elevations and topographic detail result in larger amplitude planetary 4 mm/day and decreases by 7–9 mm/day in the proto Himalayan region. Surface temperatures change by up to 18°C as a direct result of elevation modifications. Increased leaf area index (LAI), as a result of altered vegetation distributions, reduces temperatures by up to 6°C. Decreasing the size of the Mississippi embayment decreases inland precipitation by 1–2 mm/day. These climate responses to increased accuracy in boundary conditions indicate that “improved” boundary conditions may play an important role in producing modeled paleoclimates that approach the proxy data more closely.     

Large‐ion lithophile element fractionation during the early differentiation of Mars and the composition of the martian primitive mantle

Abstract— Basaltic shergottites display a systematic decrease in K/Th, K/U, and K/La ratios with increasing K content. These trends are interpreted as mixing lines between relatively young martian magmas derived from highly depleted mantle sources and an ancient large‐ion lithophile (LIL) element‐enriched crustal component. One implication of this is that a substantial fractionation of these ratios occurs during the early crustal differentiation on Mars. Isotopic evidence from SNC meteorites and compositional data from Pathfinder and orbital gamma ray spectroscopy suggest that in excess of 50% of the LIL element complement of Mars resides in the crustal reservoir. If so, the primitive mantle of Mars is significantly more volatile‐depleted (i.e., lower K/Th, K/U, K/La) than previously thought but probably (though not necessarily) still less volatile‐depleted than the primitive mantle of the Earth. The La/Th ratios of virtually all SNC meteorites are subchondritic, including those with the most severe LREE‐depletion. Extrapolation of the basaltic shergottite trend suggests that both the depleted mantle end member and the enriched crustal end member have subchondritic La/Th ratios. This is in contrast with the Earth where basalts from LIL element‐depleted sources such as MORB have superchondritic La/Th ratios, complementary to the subchondritic ratios of the continental crust. Accordingly, assuming that the refractory elements are in chondritic proportions for the Mars primitive mantle, an additional major geochemical reservoir must exist on Mars that may not yet have been sampled.