Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction

Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North Atlantic Oscillation have not yet proven sufficient to enable satisfactorily skilful dynamical seasonal forecasts. The winter-time circulations of the stratosphere and troposphere are highly coupled. It is therefore possible that additional seasonal forecasting skill may be gained by including a realistic stratosphere in models. In this study we assess the ability of five seasonal forecasting models to simulate the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter-time stratospheric circulation. Our results show that all of the models have a polar night jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to re-analysis data. It is shown that the models underestimate the number, magnitude and duration of periods of anomalous stratospheric circulation. Despite the poor representation of the general circulation of the stratosphere, the results indicate that there may be a detectable tropospheric response following anomalous circulation events in the stratosphere. However, the models fail to exhibit any predictability in their forecasts. These results highlight some of the deficiencies of current seasonal forecasting models with a poorly resolved stratosphere. The combination of these results with other recent studies which show a tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, demonstrates a real prospect for improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.     

Foreign Direct Investment in the Czech Republic

Children are considered particularly important in debates about the possibilities and dangers of information and communication technologies (ICT). Discourses on ICT contain paradoxical representations of childhood. On the one hand, unlike most other understandings of child/adult relations, these discourses assume children to be equally, if not more, technologically competent than adults. On the other hand, children’s very competence at using ICT is alleged to be putting them “at risk” of abuse or corruption. This paper addresses these moral panics about children and ICT by exploring to what extent and why parents are concerned about their children’s safety in on-line space. In doing so the paper reflects on the extent to which anxieties about children in cyberspace replicate concerns about public outdoor space and the way networked computers emerge as different tools in different households.     

Groundwater recharge sources in semiarid irrigated mountain fronts

High-elevation mountains often constitute for basins important groundwater recharge sources through mountain-front recharge processes. These processes include streamflow losses and subsurface inflow from the mountain block. However, another key recharge process is from irrigation practices, where mountain streamflow is distributed across the irrigated piedmont. In this study, coupled groundwater fluctuation measurements and environmental tracers (¹⁸O, ²H, and major ions) were used to identify and compare the natural mountain-front recharge to the anthropogenically induced irrigation recharge. Within the High Atlas mountain front of the Ourika Basin, Central Morocco, the groundwater fluctuation mapping from the dry to wet season showed that recharge beneath the irrigated area was higher than the recharge along the streambed. Irrigation practices in the region divert more than 65% of the stream water, thereby reducing the potential for in-stream groundwater recharge. In addition, the irrigation areas close to the mountain front had greater water table increases (up to 3.5 m) compared with the downstream irrigation areas (<1 m increase). Upstream crops have priority to irrigation with stream water over downstream areas. The latter are only irrigated via stream water during large flood events and are otherwise supplemented by groundwater resources. These changes in water resources used for irrigation practices between upstream and downstream areas are reflected in the spatiotemporal evolution of the stable isotopes of groundwater. In the upstream irrigation area, the groundwater stable isotope values (δ¹⁸O: −8.4‰ to −7.4‰) reflect recharge by the diverted stream water. In the downstream irrigation area, the groundwater isotope values are lower (δ¹⁸O: −8.1‰ to −8.4‰) due to recharge via the flood water. In the nonirrigation area, the groundwater has the highest stable isotope values (δ¹⁸O: −6.8‰ to −4.8‰). This might be due to recharge via subsurface inflow from the mountain block to the mountain front and/or recharge via local low altitude rainfall. These findings highlight that irrigation practices can result in the dominant mountain-front recharge process for groundwater.     

Traces of volcanic ash from the Mediterranean,Iceland and North America in a Holocene record from south Wales,UK

A tephra record is presented for a sediment core from Llyn Llech Owain, south Wales, spanning the early- to mid-Holocene. Seven cryptotephra deposits are discovered with three thought to correlate with known eruptions and the remaining four considered to represent previously undocumented events. One deposit is suggested to correlate with the ~6.9 cal ka bp Lairg A tephra from Iceland, whereas more distant sources are proposed as the origin for two of the tephra deposits. A peak of colourless shards in early-Holocene sediments is thought to tentatively correlate with the ~9.6 cal ka bp Fondi di Baia tephra (Campi Flegrei) and a second cryptotephra is tentatively correlated with the ~3.6 cal ka bp Aniakchak (CFE) II tephra (Alaska). The Fondi di Baia tephra has never been recorded beyond proximal sites and its discovery in south Wales significantly extends the geographical distribution of ash from this eruption. The remaining four cryptotephra deposits are yet to be correlated with known eruptions, demonstrating that our current understanding of widespread tephra deposits is incomplete. This new tephra record highlights the potential for sites at more southerly and westerly locations in northwest Europe to act as repositories for ash from several volcanic regions.     

Influence of Geo-environmental and Chemical Factors on Thermotolerant Coliforms and <Emphasis Type="Italic">E.coli</Emphasis> in the Groundwater of Central Kerala

Geo-environmental studies in parts of Ernakulam district (Kerala, India) were carried out. The study area comprises of sedimentary (Limestone, sandstone, Clay and Lignite) and crystalline (Charnockite and gneisses) rocks. The sedimentary terrain is characterized by confined and unconfined aquifers. In hard crystalline formations groundwater occurs under phreatic conditions in the shallow weathered portions and under semi confined to confined conditions in the deep-seated fractures. The study area is demarcated into five areas based on soil types. Climate is hot humid to hot summer with heavily raining monsoon. Two major rivers Periyar and Muvattupuzha drain through the area. Agricultural and industrial activities are prevalent in Ernakulam district. The major cause of pollution in the study area is due to the presence of coliforms. Detailed investigations carried out to identify the coliforms indicated spatial and seasonal changes in the distribution pattern. Monsoon and post monsoon showed significantly high total coliforms compared to pre-monsoon. Thermo-tolerant coliforms is high during monsoon season. This seasonal change could be due to the effect of rainfall, overland flow, nutrient load and temperature change. Wide variations in the coliform counts are observed in wells situated near rivers, canals, paddy fields and in water bodies lying close to pilgrimage center, fertilizer industry, and public places. It is noticed that the chemical characteristics of the groundwater influence the coliform survival. pH, nitrite, bicarbonate, hardness, and alkalinity play a significant role in controlling coliform count. At the outset, the study highlighted the impact of anthropogenic activities on ground water in a coastal district of Kerala state.     

Measurement of soluble reactive phosphorus concentration profiles and fluxes in river-bed sediments using DET gel probes

DET (diffusive equilibrium in thin films) gel probes were used for sampling river-bed sediment porewaters, to characterise in situ soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentration profiles and fluxes. DET probes were deployed in three contrasting rural streams: (1) a headwater ‘pristine’ stream, with minimal P inputs from low intensity grassland and no point sources, (2) an intensively cultivated arable catchment, and (3) a stream subject to high P loadings from sewage effluent and intensive arable farming. The DET results showed highly enriched porewater SRP concentrations of between ca. 400 and 5000 μg-P l⁻¹ in the sewage-impacted stream. In contrast, the arable and pristine streams had porewater SRP concentrations <70 μg-P l⁻¹ and <20 μg-P l⁻¹, respectively. Porewater SRP concentration profiles in both the sewage-impacted and arable-impacted streams showed well-defined vertical structure, indicating internal sources and sinks of SRP within the sediment. However, there was little variability in porewater SRP concentrations in the pristine stream. The DET porewater profiles indicated net diffusion of SRP (a) from the overlying river water into the surface sediment and (b) from subsurface sediment upwards towards the sediment–water interface. A mass balance for the sewage-impacted site showed that the influx of SRP into the surface sediments from the overlying river water was small (ca. 1% of the daily river SRP load). The DET results indicated that, in the arable and sewage-impacted streams, the surface ‘cap’ of fine sediment may play an important role in inhibiting upward movement of SRP from subsurface porewaters into the overlying river water, under steady-state, low-flow conditions.     

Envisioning carbon capture and storage: expanded possibilities due to air capture,leakage insurance,and C-14 monitoring

In order to meet the challenge of climate change while allowing for continued economic development, the world will have to adopt a net zero carbon energy infrastructure. Due to the world’s large stock of low-cost fossil fuels, there is strong motivation to explore the opportunities for capturing the CO₂ that is produced in the combustion of fossil fuels and keeping it out of the atmosphere. Three distinct sets of technologies are needed to allow for climate neutral use of fossil fuels: (1) capture of CO₂ at concentrated sources like electric power plants, future hydrogen production plants and steel and cement plants; (2) capture of CO₂ from the air; and (3) the safe and permanent storage of CO₂ away from the atmosphere. A strong regime of carbon accounting is also necessary to gain the public’s trust in the safety and permanence of CO₂ storage. This paper begins with an extensive overview of carbon capture and storage technologies, and then presents a vision for the potential implementation of carbon capture and storage, drawing upon new ideas such as air capture technology, leakage insurance, and monitoring using a radioactive isotope such as C-14. These innovations, which may provide a partial solution for managing the risks associated with long-term carbon storage, are not well developed in the existing literature and deserve greater study.     

The price of spice: Ethnic minority livelihoods and cardamom commodity chains in upland northern Vietnam

The northern uplands of Vietnam are witness to rapidly developing commodity markets for a range of forest and agricultural products. Since the early 1990s the cultivation of black cardamom (Amomum aromaticum) has become a source of cash income for a growing number of ethnic minority households in these uplands. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork, and utilizing a commodity chain and livelihoods approach, this article investigates the contemporary dynamics surrounding the cultivation, harvesting and trade of dried cardamom fruit from Hmong cultivators in Lao Cai province to consumers elsewhere in Vietnam and beyond to China and the global market. We analyse the spatial and social structures of these commodity chains, drawing attention to a range of mechanisms of access. We find that these mechanisms are reliant upon specific ethnic relations as well as different forms of capital that together sustain economic advantages for particular actors. While focusing on the ethnic minority cultivators active in these commodity chains, we also call for more nuanced understandings of how the trade in forest products fits within local agricultural systems and household livelihood decision making processes in the Vietnam uplands.     

Biogeography of the deep-sea galatheid squat lobsters of the Pacific Ocean

We analyzed the distribution patterns of the galatheid squat lobsters (Crustacea, Decapoda, Galatheidae) of the Pacific Ocean. We used the presence/absence data of 402 species along the continental slope and continental rise (200–2000 m) obtained from 54 cruises carried out in areas around the Philippines, Indonesia, Solomon, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Wallis and Futuna and French Polynesia. The total number of stations was ca. 3200. We also used published data from other expeditions carried out in the Pacific waters, and from an exhaustive search of ca. 600 papers on the taxonomy and biogeography of Pacific species. We studied the existence of biogeographic provinces using multivariate analyses, and present data on latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of species richness, rate of endemism and the relationship between body sizes with the size of the geographic ranges. Latitudinal species richness along the Western and Eastern Pacific exhibited an increase from higher latitudes towards the Equator. Longitudinal species richness decreased considerably from the Western to the Central Pacific. Size frequency distribution for body size was strongly shifted toward small sizes and endemic species were significantly smaller than non-endemics. This study concludes that a clear separation exists between the moderately poor galatheid fauna of the Eastern Pacific and the rich Western and Central Pacific faunas. Our results also show that the highest numbers of squat lobsters are found in the Coral Sea (Solomon-Vanuatu-New Caledonia islands) and Indo-Malay-Philippines archipelago (IMPA). The distribution of endemism along the Pacific Ocean indicates that there are several major centres of diversity, e.g. Coral Sea, IMPA, New Zealand and French Polynesia. The high proportion of endemism in these areas suggests that they have evolved independently.     

On‐line Dangers?: Geographies of Parents’ Fears for Children's Safety in Cyberspace

Children are considered particularly important in debates about the possibilities and dangers of information and communication technologies (ICT). Discourses on ICT contain paradoxical representations of childhood. On the one hand, unlike most other understandings of child/adult relations, these discourses assume children to be equally, if not more, technologically competent than adults. On the other hand, children's very competence at using ICT is alleged to be putting them “at risk” of abuse or corruption. This paper addresses these moral panics about children and ICT by exploring to what extent and why parents are concerned about their children's safety in on‐line space. In doing so the paper reflects on the extent to which anxieties about children in cyberspace replicate concerns about public outdoor space and the way networked computers emerge as different tools in different households.