Long-Term Variability of Volume and Heat Transport in the Nordic Seas: A Model Study

This article presents results from a model study of interannual and decadal variability in the Nordic Seas. Fifty years of simulations were conducted in an initial condition ensemble mode forced with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. We studied two major events in the interannual and interdecadal variability of the Nordic Seas during the past fifty years: the Great Salinity Anomaly in the 1960s and early 1970s and the warming of the Arctic and subarctic oceans in the late 1990s.

Previous studies demonstrated that the Great Salinity Anomaly observed in the subarctic ocean in 1960 was originally generated by intensified sea-ice and freshwater inflow from the Arctic Ocean. Our model results demonstrate that the increase in the transport of fresh and cold waters through Fram Strait in the 1960s was concurrent with a reduction in the meridional water exchange over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. The resulting imbalance in salinity and heat fluxes through the strait and over the ridge also contributed to the freshening of the water masses of the Nordic Seas and intensified the Great Salinity Anomaly in the Nordic Seas.

The warming of the Atlantic Waters in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean during the past two decades had an important impact on the variability of these two ocean basins. Some previous observational and model studies demonstrated that the warming of the subpolar Atlantic Ocean in the late 1990s and the meridional transport of the Atlantic Water mass (AW) into the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean contributed to this process. At the same time, observations show that the warming of the AW in the Nordic Seas started in the 1980s (i.e., earlier than the warming of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean). Our model results suggest that this process was triggered by an imbalance in the lateral heat fluxes through Fram Strait and over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. In the late 1980s the AW transport over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge was stronger than normal while the exchange through Fram Strait was close to normal. The related imbalance in the lateral heat fluxes through the strait and over the ridge warmed the Nordic Seas and caused an increase in the temperature of the AW inflow to the Arctic Ocean in the late 1980s (i.e., about a decade earlier than the warming of the source of the AW in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean). Thus the model results suggest that the imbalance in lateral heat and salinity fluxes through the strait and over the ridge connecting the Nordic Seas to the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans could amplify the interannual variability in the subarctic ocean.

[Traduit par la rédaction] Cet article présente les résultats d'une étude par modèle de la variabilité interannuelle et décennale dans les mers nordiques. Nous avons effectué des simulations sur une période de cinquante ans en mode d'ensemble de conditions initiales forcé avec les réanalyses des NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction). Nous avons étudié deux événements majeurs survenus dans la variabilité interannuelle et décennale des mers nordiques au cours des cinquante dernières années : la grande anomalie de salinité des années 1960 et du début des années 1970 et le réchauffement des océans Arctique et subarctique vers la fin des années 1990.

Des études précédentes ont démontrées que la grande anomalie de salinité observée dans l'océan subarctique en 1960 a été causée par une intensification de l'apport de glace de mer et d'eau douce depuis l'océan Arctique. Les résultats que nous avons obtenus du modèle montrent que l'accroissement du transport d'eau douce et froide à travers le détroit de Fram dans les années 1960 s'est produit en même temps qu'une réduction dans l’échange méridien d'eau au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse. Le déséquilibre résultant dans les flux de salinité et de chaleur à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête a aussi contribué à l'adoucissement des masses d'eau des mers nordiques et a intensifié la grande anomalie de salinité dans les mers nordiques.

Le réchauffement des eaux atlantiques dans les mers nordiques et dans l'océan Arctique au cours des deux dernières décennies a eu un impact important sur la variabilité de ces deux bassins océaniques. Des études observationnelles et par modèle précédentes ont établi que le réchauffement de l'océan Atlantique subpolaire dans les années 1990 et le transport méridien de la masse d'eau atlantique dans les mers nordiques et dans l'océan Arctique ont contribué à ce processus. En même temps, les observations montrent que le réchauffement des eaux atlantiques dans les mers nordiques a commencé dans les années 1980 (c.–à–d. plus tôt que le réchauffement de l'océan Nord-Atlantique subpolaire). Les résultats du modèle suggèrent que ce processus a été déclenché par un déséquilibre dans les flux de chaleur latéraux à travers le détroit de Fram et au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse. À la fin des années 1980, le transport des eaux atlantiques au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse était plus fort que la normale alors que l’échange à travers le détroit de Fram était près de la normale. Le déséquilibre résultant dans les flux de chaleur latéraux à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête a réchauffé les mers nordiques et causé une augmentation de la température des eaux atlantiques parvenant à l'océan Arctique à la fin des années 1980 (c.-à-d. environ une décennie avant le réchauffement de la source d'eaux atlantiques dans l'océan Nord-Atlantique subpolaire). Donc, les résultats du modèle suggèrent que le déséquilibre dans les flux de chaleur et de salinité latéraux à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête reliant les mers nordiques à l'Atlantique Nord et à l'Arctique pourrait amplifier la variabilité interannuelle dans l'océan subarctique.     

Paleoenvironmental records of water level and climatic changes from the middle to late Holocene at a Lake Erie coastal wetland, Ontario, Canada

Pollen and diatom assemblages, and peat stratigraphies, from a coastal wetland on the northern shore of Lake Erie were used to analyze water level and climatic changes since the middle Holocene and their effects on wetland plant communities. Peat deposition began 4700 cal yr B.P. during the Nipissing II transgression, which was driven by isostatic rebound. At that time, a diatom-rich wild rice marsh existed at the site. Water level dropped at the end of the Nipissing rise at least 2 m within 200 yr, leading to the development of shallower-water plant communities and an environment too dry for most diatoms to persist. The sharp decline in water level was probably driven primarily by outlet incision, but climate likely played some role. The paleoecological records provide evidence for post-Nipissing century-scale transgressions occurring around 2300, 1160, 700 and 450 cal yr B.P. The chronology for these transgressions correlates with other studies from the region and implies climatic forcing. Peat inception in shallow sloughs across part of the study area around 700 cal yr B.P. coincides with the Little Ice Age. These records, considered alongside others from the region, suggest that the Little Ice Age may have resulted in a wetter climate across the eastern Great Lakes region.     

Distribution,sediment magnetism and geochemistry of the Saksunarvatn (10 180 ± 60 cal. yr BP) tephra in marine,lake, and terrestrial sediments,northwest Iceland

In 1997, seismic surveys in the troughs off northwest and north Iceland indicated the presence of a major, regional sub‐bottom reflector that can be traced over large areas of the shelf. Cores taken in 1997, and later in 1999 on the IMAGES V cruise, penetrated through the reflector. In core MD99‐2269 in Húnaflóaáll, this reflector is shown to be represented by a basaltic tephra with a geochemical signature and radiocarbon age correlative with the North Atlantic‐wide Saksunarvatn tephra. We trace this tephra throughout northwest Iceland in a series of marine and lake cores, as well as in terrestrial sediments; it forms a layer 1 to 25 cm thick of fine‐ to medium‐grained basaltic volcanic shards. The base of the tephra unit is always sharp but visual inspection and other measurements (carbonate and total organic carbon weight %) indicate a more diffuse upper boundary associated with bioturbation and with sediment reworking. Off northwest Iceland the Saksunarvatn tephra has distinct sediment magnetic properties. This is evident as a dramatic reduction in magnetic susceptibility, an increase in the frequency dependant magnetic susceptibility and ‘hard’ magnetisation in a −0.1T IRM backfield. Geochemical analyses from 11 sites indicate a tholeiitic basalt composition, similar to the geochemistry of a tephra found in the Greenland ice‐core that dates to 10 180 ± 60 cal. yr BP, and which was correlated with the 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP Saksunarvatn tephra. We present accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C dates from the marine sites, which indicate that the ocean reservoir correction is close to ca. 400 yr at 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP off northwest Iceland. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A continuous tephrostratigraphic record from the Labrador Sea spanning the last 65 ka

Volcanic ash preserved in marine sediment sequences is key for independent synchronization of palaeoclimate records within and across different climate archives. Here we present a continuous tephrostratigraphic record from the Labrador Sea, spanning the last 65–5 ka, an area and time period that has not been investigated in detail within the established North Atlantic tephra framework. We investigated marine sediment core GS16-204-22CC for increased tephra occurrences and geochemically analysed the major element composition of tephra shards to identify their source volcano(es). In total we observed eight tephra zones, of which five concentration peaks show isochronous features that can be used as independent tie-points in future studies. The main transport mechanism of tephra shards to the site was near-instantaneous deposition by drifting of sea ice along the East Greenland Current. Our results show that the Icelandic Veidivötn volcanic system was the dominant source of tephra material, especially between late Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 and early MIS 3. The Veidivötn system generated volcanic eruptions in cycles of ca. 3–5 ka. We speculate that the quantity of tephra delivered to the Labrador Sea was a result of variable Icelandic ice volume and/or changes in the transportation pathway towards the Labrador Sea.     

A land-use-based modelling chain to assess the impacts of Natural Water Retention Measures on Europe’s Green Infrastructure

This article details the process of integrating models to answer a specific policy-driven question: ‘What could be the impact of proposed Natural Water Retention Measures (NWRMs) on Europe’s Green Infrastructure (GI)?’ It describes the new Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP), now enabling a high spatial scale (100-m) and large coverage (pan-European), whereby several sector-specific models contribute to assessing the impact of regional-level policy on a given spatial topic of concern. The configuration (land claims and land allocations modules) and calibration (accessibility and biophysical suitability) of the LUMP are explained. Four NWRM scenarios (riparian areas, afforestation, grassland and baseline scenario) are configured to run the simulations. For the reference: year 2006, the spatial representation of GI is based on land-use features of a refined version of the CORINE Land Cover (CLC), and resumed as connected components made of nodes and links.

Mathematical morphological image processing and network graph theory model, available from the free software package GUIDOS (the Joint Research Center of the European Commission), enabled the measurement of the GI connectivity and identified most critical links. Results show that the competition for land claimed by different economic sectors, combined with policy-driven rule-sets for the implementation of different NWRMs, yields very different results for the 2030 land-use projections, and subsequently for the morphology of GI. Three indicators associated with the morphology of GI are computed in order to assess the model outputs for 2030. The indicators are computed to answer the following questions: (1) How is the quantity of GI affected by each of the NWRM, and what proportion of that GI is most valuable? (2) What is the location of the most critical nodes and connectors of GI, and what land-use conversions occur under these? (3) Are the average components getting larger or smaller?

Whereas the grassland measure results in the largest net increase of GI, the afforestation measure results in the overall largest number of hectares of key nodes and links within the network. Land conversions occur under the critical GI nodes and links, with a large increase in agricultural areas, especially for the riparian measure under critical nodes and the grassland measure under critical links. Also predominant is the swapping of land from pasture to forest under critical links with the afforestation measure. The riparian measure most increases the average size of GI components, and all three measures contribute to bridging two large components which were divided in the 2006 land-use map, thus increasing the size of the largest component by more than 50%.     

Isotopic mapping of groundwater perchlorate plumes

Analyses of stable isotope ratios of chlorine and oxygen in perchlorate can, in some cases, be used for mapping and source identification of groundwater perchlorate plumes. This is demonstrated here for large, intersecting perchlorate plumes in groundwater from a region having extensive groundwater perchlorate contamination and a large population dependent on groundwater resources. The region contains both synthetic perchlorate derived from rocket fuel manufacturing and testing activities and agricultural perchlorate derived predominantly from imported Chilean (Atacama) nitrate fertilizer, along with a likely component of indigenous natural background perchlorate from local wet and dry atmospheric deposition. Most samples within each plume reflect either a predominantly synthetic or a predominantly agricultural perchlorate source and there is apparently a minor contribution from the indigenous natural background perchlorate. The existence of isotopically distinct perchlorate plumes in this area is consistent with other lines of evidence, including groundwater levels and flow paths as well as the historical land use and areal distribution of potential perchlorate sources.     

Engaging Los Angeles County subsistence anglers in the California marine protected area planning process

Ecosystem-based management is more successful when a great diversity of stakeholders is engaged early in a decision-making process. Implementation of the California Marine Life Protection Act (MLPA) has been stakeholder-based, coordinating the participation of a wide range of people including divers, fishermen, conservationists, local officials, business owners and coastal residents. Although commercial and recreational fishermen have actively participated throughout the MLPA implementation process, and research related to California’s sport and commercial fisheries has been integrated into the process, pier and shore anglers have been relatively unengaged as stakeholders. This study was completed to generate information about pier angler understanding and sentiment towards marine protected areas (MPAs), as well as to educate anglers on the MLPA implementation process in southern California and inform them on involvement opportunities. Of the 3030 pier anglers surveyed over 12 months, 78% only fish for subsistence from piers and from shore (never from boats); 84.6% are of non-White/Euro-American ethnicity and speak English as a second language; and 82% indicated that they were supportive of establishing a strong network of MPAs in southern California, specifically fully-protective no-take marine reserves. This study is an example of an alternative and customized method of outreach designed to reach a unique and previously unengaged stakeholder group, which stands to be affected by the implementation of the MLPA in California. Engaging such non-traditional stakeholders in public policy may be critical for decision makers to gauge all views from those standing to be affected by a policy—not just the views of those that regularly attend policy meetings—and for the ultimate success of policy implementation and community support.     

Climate change and mental health: an exploratory case study from Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada

As the impacts from anthropogenic climate change are increasing globally, people are experiencing dramatic shifts in weather, temperature, wildlife and vegetation patterns, and water and food quality and availability. These changes impact human health and well-being, and resultantly, climate change has been identified as the biggest global health threat of the 21st Century. Recently, research is beginning to indicate that changes in climate, and the subsequent disruption to the social, economic, and environmental determinants of health, may cause increased incidences and prevalence of mental health issues, emotional responses, and large-scale sociopsychological changes. Through a multi-year, community-led, exploratory case study conducted in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Labrador, Canada, this research qualitatively explores the impacts of climate change on mental health and well-being in an Inuit context. Drawing from 67 in-depth interviews conducted between January 2010 and October 2010 with community members and local and regional health professionals, participants reported that changes in weather, snow and ice stability and extent, and wildlife and vegetation patterns attributed to climate change were negatively impacting mental health and well-being due to disruptions in land-based activities and a loss of place-based solace and cultural identity. Participants reported that changes in climate and environment increased family stress, enhanced the possibility of increased drug and alcohol usage, amplified previous traumas and mental health stressors, and were implicated in increased potential for suicide ideation. While a preliminary case study, these exploratory findings indicate that climate change is becoming an additional mental health stressor for resource-dependent communities and provide a baseline for further research.     

Numerical Modeling of the Near‐Field Hydraulics of Water Wells

Numerical flow models can be a useful tool for dimensioning water wells and to investigate the hydraulics in their near‐field. Fully laminar flow can be assumed for all models calculated up to the screen. Therefore models can be used to predict—at least qualitatively, neglecting turbulent losses inside the well—the spatial distribution of inflow into the well and the overall hydraulic performance of different combinations of aquifer parameters and technical installations. Models for both horizontal (plan view) and vertical flow (cross section) to wells were calculated for a variety of setups. For the latter, this included variations of hydraulic conductivity of the screen, pump position, and aquifer heterogeneity. Models of suction flow control devices showed that they indeed can homogenize inflow, albeit at the cost of elevated entrance losses.