Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State

Climate strongly affects energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Washington State (WA). We evaluate potential effects of climate change on the seasonality and annual amount of PNW hydropower production, and on heating and cooling energy demand. Changes in hydropower production are estimated by linking simulated streamflow scenarios produced by a hydrology model to a simulation model of the Columbia River hydro system. Changes in energy demand are assessed using gridded estimates of heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) which are then combined with population projections to create energy demand indices that respond both to climate, future population, and changes in residential air conditioning market penetration. We find that substantial changes in the amount and seasonality of energy supply and demand in the PNW are likely to occur over the next century in response to warming, precipitation changes, and population growth. By the 2040s hydropower production is projected to increase by 4.7–5.0% in winter, decrease by about 12.1–15.4% in summer, with annual reductions of 2.0–3.4%. Larger decreases of 17.1–20.8% in summer hydropower production are projected for the 2080s. Although the combined effects of population growth and warming are projected to increase heating energy demand overall (22–23% for the 2020s, 35–42% for the 2040s, and 56–74% for the 2080s), warming results in reduced per capita heating demand. Residential cooling energy demand (currently less than one percent of residential demand) increases rapidly (both overall and per capita) to 4.8–9.1% of the total demand by the 2080s due to increasing population, cooling degree days, and air conditioning penetration.     

Desert environments: landscapes and stratigraphy

It is common to think of hot deserts, i.e. hot arid or dry lands, as areas of little rain situated in the middle parts of the world, that are simply 'just there'. However, most of the world's deserts have a long geological history, sometimes of 50 million years or more and ways have been developing for some time now, particularly from geomorphological studies, of not only erecting the law of superposition of strata for the desert but also 'absolute' dating. The authors have often worked commercially in deserts world-wide but their recent experiences in the Oman have brought home to them the excellent work that has been going on in the last two or three decades in evaluating the geological history of deserts. The Oman experience is described in a feature in the next issue.     

Surface displacements due to batter piles driven in cross‐anisotropic media

This article derives the closed‐form solutions for estimating the vertical surface displacements of cross‐anisotropic media due to various loading types of batter piles. The loading types include an embedded point load for an end‐bearing pile, uniform skin friction, and linear variation of skin friction for a friction pile. The planes of cross‐anisotropy are assumed to be parallel to the horizontal ground surface. The proposed solutions are never mentioned in literature and can be developed from Wang and Liao's solutions for a horizontal and vertical point load embedded in the cross‐anisotropic half‐space. The present solutions are identical with Wang's solutions when batter angle equals to 0^°. In addition, the solutions indicate that the surface displacements in cross‐anisotropic media are influenced by the type and degree of material anisotropy, angle of inclination, and loading types. An illustrative example is given at the end of this article to investigate the effect of the type and degree of soil anisotropy (E/E′, G′/E′, and ν/ν′), pile inclination (α), and different loading types (a point load, a uniform skin friction, and a linear variation of skin friction) on vertical surface displacements. Results show that the displacements accounted for pile batter are quite different from those estimated from plumb piles, both driven in cross‐anisotropic media. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrogeochemistry and environmental isotopes of ground water in Jeju volcanic island,Korea: implications for nitrate contamination

Ground water from springs and public supply wells was investigated for hydrochemistry and environmental isotopes of ³H, ¹⁸O and D in Jeju volcanic island, Korea. The wells are completed in a basaltic aquifer and the upper part of hydrovolcanic sedimentary formation. Nitrate contamination is conspicuous in the coastal area where most of the samples have nitrate concentrations well above 1 mg NO₃ N/l. Agricultural land use seems to have a strong influence on the distribution of nitrate in ground water. Comparison of stable isotopic compositions of precipitation and ground water show that ground water mostly originates from rainy season precipitation without significant secondary modification and that local recharge is dominant. ³H concentration of ground water ranged from nearly zero to 5 TU and is poorly correlated with vertical location of well screens. The occurrence of the ³H‐free, old ground water is due to the presence of low permeability layers near the boundary of the basaltic aquifer and the hydrovolcanic sedimentary formation, which significantly limits ground water flow from the upper basaltic aquifer. The old ground water exhibited background‐level nitrate concentrations despite high nitrate loadings, whereas young ground water had considerably higher nitrate concentrations. This correlation of ³H and nitrate concentration may be ascribed to the history of fertilizer use that has increased dramatically since the early 1960s in the island. This suggests that ³H can be used as a qualitative indicator for aquifer vulnerability to nitrate contamination. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Elasto‐plastic seepage‐induced stresses due to tunneling

When tunneling is carried out beneath the groundwater table, hydraulic boundary is altered, resulting in seepage entering into the tunnel. The development of flow into the tunnel induces seepage stresses in the ground and the lining is subjected to additional loads. This can often cause fine particles to move, which clog the filter resulting in the long‐term hydraulic deterioration of the drainage system. However, the effect of seepage force is generally not considered in the analysis of tunnel. While several elastic solutions have been proposed by assuming seepage in an elastic medium, stress solutions have not been considered for the seepage force in a porous elasto‐plastic medium. This paper documents a study that investigates the stress behavior, caused by seepage, of a tunnel in an elasto‐plastic ground and its effects on the tunnel and ground. New elasto‐plastic solutions that adopt the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion are proposed for a circular tunnel under radial flow conditions. A simple solution based on the hydraulic gradient obtained from a numerical parametric study is also proposed for practical use. It should be noted that the simple equation is useful for acquiring additional insight into a problem on a tunnel under drainage, because only a minimal computational effort is needed and considerable economic benefits can be gained by using it in the preliminary stage of tunnel design. The proposed equations were partly validated by numerical analysis, and their applicability is illustrated and discussed using an example problem. Comments on the tunnel analysis are also provided. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of moving storms on attainment of equilibrium discharge

Although rainfall is assumed spatially uniform in conventional hydrological modelling for rainfall–runoff simulations, moving storms have been shown to have substantial influence on flow hydrographs. In this study, criteria for attainment of the equilibrium discharge from watersheds subjected to moving storms were examined. Non-linear numerical kinematic-wave models were developed to simulate runoff from an overland plane and from a V-shaped catchment. Dimensional analysis was applied to obtain the independent variables to be used as control factors in performing a series of numerical tests. The results indicate that, for storms moving downstream, runoff can attain equilibrium discharge even though the storm length is shorter than the watershed length and the rainfall duration is less than the time to equilibrium of the watershed for stationary uniform storms. The phenomenon of attainment of equilibrium discharge from watersheds subjected to moving storms is contradictory to conventional hydrologic design, which assumes the storm duration must equal the time to equilibrium to attain the maximum discharge. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multivariate statistical analysis of underground gas storage caverns on groundwater chemistry in Korea

An understanding of groundwater flow and chemistry is important to operate underground storage caverns. Groundwater flow is mainly affected by cavern operating conditions. Groundwater chemistry is modified by disinfection activities for removing possible biological clogging and by mixing with cement pore water. It is important to discern these two effects, because wells affected by the disinfection activities may have hydrological connections with water curtains used to inject the disinfectant. However, it is difficult to separate these two effects using graphical methods because of their similar chemical characteristics. Instead, multivariate statistical analysis, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and factor analysis (FA), can be used. Groundwater samples for chemical analysis were obtained from four surveys in 1999–2000. Based on the results from PCA and FA, it appears that there were temporal variations of seepage water into the propane area when the cavern operation fluctuated, but we could not observe such variation in the butane area. These changes may occur mainly at depth, where water flow is slow and water renewal in the cavern surrounding is limited. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“Amount effect” of water isotopes and quantitative analysis of post‐condensation processes

A numerical model is proposed that describes the interaction between raindrops and water vapour near the planetary boundary layer to explain the “amount effect”. This model relates the intensity to the isotopic composition of precipitation. The model resolves raindrop sizes, and explicitly includes: (1) the isotopic equilibration time of raindrops that is drop‐size dependent; (2) raindrop transit times through the atmosphere; and (3) the evolution of the isotopic composition of vapour at various rain rates. At high rain rate, the precipitation through a layer is less equilibrated with the vapour because the isotopic equilibration time is long compared to the fast transit time, and there is a preponderance of large drops, which take longer to equilibrate. The δ¹⁸O of vapour in the lower atmosphere becomes lower as a result of the interaction with these raindrops of low δ¹⁸O, and the degree of depletion of ¹⁸O is higher when precipitation rates are high. The model reproduces time‐series observations of isotopic composition of precipitation in Japan, and a vapour replenishment rate is inferred by either advection or evaporation of about 5% of the precipitation rate. The results could be the basis for a new parameterization of the isotopic equilibration for different precipitation types and rates in General Circulation Models (GCMs). When the model is applied to a GCM, this parameterization is important for places where precipitation occurs at cold temperatures (<15 °C). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An analysis of mean transition time between flood and drought in the large river basin

 A soil moisture balance equation over large spatial regions is studied at seasonal and annual time scales for the Arkansas river basin. Interaction and feedback effects between land-surface and atmospheric moisture are studied in the parameterization for this basin. Due to the interaction between the land-surface and atmosphere at large scales, the surface hydrology of large land areas is susceptible to two distinct stable modes in the long-term probability density function: a dry and a wet state. In the soil moisture balance equation, stochastic fluctuations lead to separate preferred statistical stable states with transitions between these stable states induced by environmental fluctuations. On the basis of historical data, the soil moisture balance equation is calibrated for the Arkansas river basin. The transition times between the stable modes in the model are studied based on the stochastic representation of the physical processes and the calibrated model parameters. This study has implications for prediction of the transition times between stable modes or residence times, that is, the time the system spends in a given stable mode, since this would be equivalent to predicting the duration of droughts or wet conditions.     

The potential role of mucus in the depuration of copper from the mussels Perna viridis (L.) and Septifer virgatus (Wiegmann)

Experiments were conducted to measure the mucus secretion rate in two common mussels in Hong Kong, Perna viridis (L.) and Septifer virgatus (Wiegmann), when chronically exposed to Cu (50 μg l⁻¹). After a 3-month exposure period, the mucus production rate of P. viridis at 25°C in the metal treatment was 2.65 times that of the control (10.7 vs 4.0 mg g⁻¹ dry wt h⁻¹), while S. virgatus showed a 1.85 times difference (4.41 vs 2.38 mg g⁻¹ dry wt h⁻¹). Mucus secretion by P. viridis under acute Cu exposure (0.5 mg l⁻¹) was significantly higher in the metal treatment than the control (13.43 vs 9.16 mg g⁻¹ dry flesh wt). Metal contents of the mucus secreted was about 18 times those in the control and 6 times in the soft tissues. Therefore, mucus appears to be an effective agent for Cu depuration in the mussel. The significance of these results to the local distribution and abundance of the mussels is discussed.