Serial dependence properties in multivariate streamflow simulation with independent decomposition analysis

Stochastic simulation of multivariate hydrologic variables has a key role in evaluating alternative designs and operation rules of hydrologic facilities. The recently developed decomposition analysis, Independent Component Analysis (ICA), allows us to apply the simple univariate time series model to each extracted component by: (1) decomposing multivariate time series into independent components with ICA; (2) modelling and generating each component independently; and (3) mixing the generated components to come back to observational domain. However, we illustrate in the current study that fitting a univariate time series model to each extracted component might end up with the underestimation of the serial dependence that the observation data might contain. A alternative for parameter estimation is suggested to preserve the serial dependence of the observation variable using the relationship between the observation variable and the decomposed variable. The case study of the Upper Colorado River basin shows that some improvement is made through the suggested alternative. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of stable water isotopes to assess sources and influences of slope groundwater on slope failure

This study employs stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes as natural tracers to assess the headwater of a landslide next to a drainage divide and the importance of the slope's headwater in the study area. The study is undertaken near Wu‐She Township in the mountains of central Taiwan. Because a reservoir is located on the other side of the divide, this study evaluates the relationship between the reservoir water and headwater of the landslide as well. Over a 1‐year period, water samples from September 2008 to September 2009, including local precipitation (LP), Wu‐She Reservoir's water (WSRW), slope groundwater (SGW), upper‐reach stream water (USTW), and down‐reach stream water (DSTW), were analysed for deuterium (δD) and oxygen (δ¹⁸O) stable isotopes. Results indicate that WSRW is the predominant component in SGW: approximately 70% of SGW originates from WSRW and 30% from LP based on a two end‐member mass‐balance mixing model for δ¹⁸O. The similar two end‐member mixing model is also employed to assess the contributions of USTW and SGW to DSTW. Model results indicate that SGW is the major source of DSTW with a contribution of about 67%. Accordingly, about 47% of DSTW sources from the WSRW. In short, owing to reservoir leakage, WSRW contributes the greater part of both SGW and DSTW. Plentiful WSRW in SGW threatens the stability of the slope in the divide area. To avoid subsequent continuous slope failure, necessary mitigation steps are required. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The cost of social vulnerability: an integrative conceptual framework and model for assessing financial risks in natural disaster management

Natural Hazards - Groups that are unable to prepare for disasters, or to recover from damage on their own, have a high dependency on government services, which inevitably leads to more government...     

Methylene blue transport in a sand-illite mixture and its implications for contaminant transport

Understanding contaminant transport in clay-containing soils is critical for accurate prediction of the travel distances of contaminants and for the design and implementation of corresponding remediation plans. This study examined the breakthrough behavior of methylene blue (MB) through sand-illite mixtures using laboratory soil-column experiments at five inlet concentrations, three flow rates, and five illite contents. Kinetic and equilibrium adsorption tests were performed to evaluate the maximum adsorption capacities of the sand and illite used in the soil-column experiments. In addition, the bed efficiency, MB saturation, and adsorption rate were calculated to quantitatively describe the observed breakthrough curves. The observed breakthrough curves, bed efficiencies, MB saturations, and adsorption rates in this study demonstrated the presence of a threshold illite content of ~10% for the adsorption efficiency of contaminants. This implies the need to evaluate the threshold clay content for accurate predictions of contaminant transport through gap-graded clay-containing soils.

     

The differentiated impact of emissions trading system based on company size

Most countries implementing an emissions trading system (ETS), such as EU member states, California in the US, or South Korea, are generally targeting large sized companies, which consume energy above a specific threshold. However, previous studies using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have analyzed climate policies without considering company size. This may have led to inaccurate results because the impacts of climate policy would differ depending on the coverage of regulated companies. Accordingly, this study examines the environmental and economic impacts of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, assuming policy results vary by firm size, as covered by the Korean emission trading system. To this end, a CGE model with a separate social accounting matrix based on company size is used to compare three scenarios that reflect different types of carbon pricing methods. The results show that greenhouse gases will be reduced to a lower extent and utility will decrease more if mitigation policies are only imposed to large companies.

Key policy insights

• Carbon pricing policies should consider the different impacts on companies of different sizes and industry sectors.

• Without considering the different sizes of companies covered by an ETS, the expected carbon price and its economic impact will be underestimated.

• Small and medium-sized companies will face more negative impacts than large companies in some industry sectors under an ETS, even if the mitigation burden is only faced by large companies.

     

Effect of phenol on embryo development and expression of metallothionein in the sea urchin Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus

In this study, we identified and cloned the sea urchin Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus MT (Hp-MT) mRNA. We examined the gameto- and embryo-toxic effects and the expression of Hp-MT mRNA at various concentrations of phenol in H. pulcherrimus. We found that the normal embryogenesis rate was significantly inhibited when H. pulcherrimus was exposed to phenol (EC₅₀ = 1565.86 ppb, 95% Cl = 1183.47-2037.84 ppb). The no observed effective concentration (NOEC) and the lowest observed effective concentration (LOEC) of the normal embryogenesis rate were < 10 ppb and 100 ppb, respectively. Hp-MT cDNA is 651 bp in length and encodes a protein of 64 amino acids. We found that the expression of Hp-MT mRNA was significantly increased with phenol treatment in a concentrationdependent manner. These results suggest that phenol at greater than 100 ppb has a toxic effect during the early embryonic stages of H. pulcherrimus, and MT mRNA may be used as a biomarker for risk assessment of phenol contamination.     

Under-ice measurements of suspended particulate matters using ADCP and LISST-Holo

Ocean Science Journal - Using a mooring package comprising an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and holographic imaging system, a 1-day ice camp study was performed under the Arctic sea ice...