Effects of convective scale downdrafts on the rainfall simulation in NCAR-CAM3

In this work, an attempt is made to systematically evaluate the effect of convective scale downdrafts on the model-simulated rainfall, in both aqua- and actual-planet frameworks, using the NCAR CAM3. From the aqua-planet simulations, it was found that there is a reduction in the total rainfall (TRF) with increase in the intensity of downdrafts, which is primarily attributed to the reduction in the deep convective component (DRF). However, with stronger downdrafts, the shallow convective and the large-scale components (SRF and LRF, respectively) are found to increase. The reduction in DRF is due to the increased evaporation of convective precipitation within the downdrafts. It is found that, with intense downdrafts, there is an increase in relative humidity throughout the troposphere, due to the combined effect of both moisture and temperature. There is an overall increase in specific humidity of the atmosphere with stronger downdrafts, excepting at around the 900-hPa level. In addition, there is a reduction in temperature throughout the troposphere, primarily due to the reduction in the overall temperature tendency due to moist processes and that due to the radiative processes. The changes in the radiative forcing are found to be primarily due to a significant increase in the low cloud fraction with strong downdrafts. In the actual-planet framework, it is seen that, with strong convective downdrafts, there is a reduction in TRF and DRF and a corresponding increase in SRF and LRF, similar to the results obtained from the aqua-planet simulations. The vertical structures of the thermodynamic variables (RH, q, and T) show similar sensitivity to the downdraft intensity as that seen in the aqua-planet framework. Sensitivity of frequency and intensity of model-simulated rainfall to the downdraft intensity was also analyzed, and it was seen that there were significant differences in the frequency distribution of rainfall. It was seen that, with an increase in downdraft intensity, there is an increase in the frequency of light rain (1–10?mm/day) for TRF with a corresponding reduction in all other rainfall bins. A similar behavior was seen for the DRF as well, while the SRF and LRF components showed an increase in rainfall accumulation in all the bins. In addition, the impact of convective downdrafts on the mean spatial pattern of rainfall is also analyzed, for the DJF and JJA periods (boreal winter and summer, respectively). For the DJF period, with strong downdrafts, it was seen that grossly over the whole domain, there were a reduction in DRF and an increase in SRF and LRF. In contrast, during JJA, although a major part of the domain showed a reduction in DRF, there were regions like western Arabian Sea and the Somali coast with increase in DRF with intense downdrafts. The SRF and LRF components, however, show a spatially homogeneous increase over almost the entire domain with increase in downdraft intensity.     

Pacific Walker Circulation variability in coupled and uncoupled climate models

There is still considerable uncertainty concerning twentieth century trends in the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). In this paper, observational datasets, coupled (CMIP5) and uncoupled (AGCM) model simulations, and additional numerical sensitivity experiments are analyzed to investigate twentieth century changes in the PWC and their physical mechanisms. The PWC weakens over the century in the CMIP5 simulations, but strengthens in the AGCM simulations and also in the observational twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) dataset. It is argued that the weakening in the CMIP5 simulations is not a consequence of a reduced global convective mass flux expected from simple considerations of the global hydrological response to global warming, but is rather due to a weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. Further clarification is provided by additional uncoupled atmospheric general circulation model simulations in which the ENSO-unrelated and ENSO-related portions of the observed SST changes are prescribed as lower boundary conditions. Both sets of SST forcing fields have a global warming trend, and both sets of simulations produce a weakening of the global convective mass flux. However, consistent with the strong role of the zonal SST gradient, the PWC strengthens in the simulations with the ENSO-unrelated SST forcing, which has a strengthening zonal SST gradient, despite the weakening of the global convective mass flux. Overall, our results suggest that the PWC strengthened during twentieth century global warming, but also that this strengthening was partly masked by a weakening trend associated with ENSO-related PWC variability.     

National Inventory of Rabi Pulses in India Using Remotely Sensed Data

A scheme called National Food Security Mission was launched by Government of India in 2007 for wheat, rice and pulses crops. At the request of Ministry of Agriculture for monitoring intensification of pulses a project called Pulses Intensification was taken up in Rabi season 2012–2013. Reliable statistics using advanced methods is very important for variety of pulse crops. Remotely sensed data can help in pre-harvest area estimation of pulse crops. Pulses in India are grown as partly scattered and partly contiguous crop. Growth in scattered areas and poor vegetation canopy of some of the pulse crops poses a challenge in its identification and discrimination using remotely sensed data. National Inventory of Rabi pulse crops in major growing regions of northern and southern parts of India was attempted. Multi-date AWiFS data and multi-date NDVI products of AWiFS of Rabi season 2014–2015 were used to study spectral-temporal behavior of pulse crops. Pulse crops accuracies of more than 95 % was observed in contiguous areas and 50–80.77 % in scattered regions. All India area estimate of Rabi pulses for the year 2014–2015 was 8963.327 ‘000 ha.     

Assessing spatial variability in soil characteristics with geographically weighted principal components analysis

Dimensionality reduction methods such as principal components analysis (PCA) provide a means of identifying trends in soil characteristics which may be represented by a wide range of variables. However, these characteristics may be highly spatially variable and so the results from PCA represent, in some sense, an “average” of locally distinct characteristics. One approach to account for these local differences is to introduce a geographical weighting scheme into the PCA process. In this paper, such an approach is assessed in the exploration of soil characteristics in the state of Pennsylvania, USA. Data from 878 georeferenced soil profiles which include different soil parameters (n = 12) were extracted from the National Soil Survey Center database. Where data are parts of compositions (e.g., percentages of sand, silt, and clay), analysis using raw data is not appropriate and such data were transformed using log ratios (specifically, balances). Single variables (i.e., those which are not parts of compositions) were logged. The first two principal components explain over 50% of the variance. The mapped values suggest marked spatial variation in soil characteristics, but it is not possible to assess which of these variables explain most variation in particular regions from the simple maps of raw variables. Geographically weighted PCA (GWPCA) provides additional information which is obscured by PCA, and it also provides a set of component scores and loadings at all data locations. The soil variable with the largest loading at most locations of Pennsylvania is the logged base saturation (BSln), and this supports the findings of the conventional PCA analysis. While BSln loads most highly in most of the eastern third, the middle and the south west of the state, the northwest is less spatially consistent in terms of the variables which explain most variation. For GWPC 1, the variable with the second largest loading at most locations (i.e., primarily the south and west) is CEC.B1 (the log ratio of Ca, Mg, and Na to K and EXACID), while CEC.B2 (the log ratio of Ca and Mg to Na), pHln (logged pH) and BSln dominate in other areas. The GWPCA results suggest that there is marked spatial variation in multivariate soil characteristics across Pennsylvania state and that results from standard PCA obscure this considerable variation.     

Effect of frequency-dependent radiation pattern in the strong motion simulation of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake,Japan, using modified semi-empirical method

We perform a strong ground motion simulation using a modified semi-empirical technique (Midorikawa in Tectonophysics 218:287–295, 1993), with frequency-dependent radiation pattern model. Joshi et al. (Nat Hazards 71:587–609, 2014) have modified the semi-empirical technique to incorporate the modeling of strong motion generation areas (SMGAs). A frequency-dependent radiation pattern model is applied to simulate high-frequency ground motion more precisely. Identified SMGAs (Kurahashi and Irikura in Earth Planets Space 63:571–576, 2011) of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake (M _w  = 9.0) were modeled using this modified technique. We analyzed the effect of changing seismic moment values of SMGAs on the simulated acceleration time series. Final selection of the moment values of SMGAs is based on the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of waveform comparison. Records are simulated for both frequency-dependent and constant radiation pattern function. Simulated records for both cases are compared with observed records in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and pseudo-acceleration response spectra at different stations. Comparison of simulated and observed records in terms of RMSE suggests that the method is capable of simulating record, which matches in a wide frequency range for this earthquake and bears realistic appearance in terms of shape and strong motion parameters. The results confirm the efficacy and suitability of rupture model defined by five SMGAs for the developed modified technique.     

Modeling of strong motion generation area of the Uttarkashi earthquake using modified semiempirical approach

The semiempirical approach based on envelope summation method given by Midorikawa (Tectonophysics 218:287–295, 1993) has been modified in this paper for modeling of strong motion generation areas (SMGAs). Horizontal components of strong ground motion have been simulated using modifications in the semiempirical approach given by Joshi et al. (Nat Hazard 71:587–609, 2014). Various modifications in the technique account for finite rupture source, layering of earth, componentwise division of energy and frequency-dependent radiation pattern. In this paper, SMGAs of the Uttarkashi earthquake have been modeled. Two different isolated wave packets in the recorded accelerogram have been identified from recorded ground motion, which accounts for two different SMGAs in the entire rupture plane. The approximate locations of SMGAs within the rupture plane were estimated using spatio-temporal variation of 77 aftershocks. Source parameters of each SMGA were calculated from theoretical and observed source displacement spectra computed from two different wave packets in the record. The final model of rupture plane responsible for the Uttarkashi earthquake consists of two SMGAs, and the same has been used to simulate horizontal components of acceleration records at different station using modified semiempirical technique. Comparison of the observed and simulated acceleration records in terms of root mean square error confirms the suitability of the final source model for the Uttarkashi earthquake.     

Multidecadal to decadal variability in the equatorial Indian Ocean subsurface temperature and the forcing mechanisms

Climate Dynamics - The Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is seen to exhibit robust warming after the 1950s. Most of the previous studies on the Indian Ocean (IO) surface and subsurface temperature...