Model ALADIN as regional climate model for Central and Eastern Europe

Results obtained with two versions of the Limited Area Model (LAM) ALADIN over differently sized integration domains (large, intermediate and small) in the European area are presented in order to investigate both the general model performance and the influence of domain choice on the quality of obtained results. The aim is also to illustrate the issues related to the strategy of selection of the optimal integration domain. Each of these studies has been performed with two versions of the ALADIN model: the first one is ALADIN-CLIMATE developed at CNRM/Météo-France, the second one is ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ prepared at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI). This leaves us with total of six experiments forced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-40 reanalysis data. The west Balkan domain covering Bulgaria is used as an evaluation region for investigation of the temporal and spatial properties of simulated precipitation and temperature fields. This region has been selected for its challenging orography making the results obtained here a valuable source for studies leading to further developments in climate modeling. It was found that size of the domain strongly affects the quality of obtained results. We have found that the largest domain reproduces the spatial characteristics of climate (such as bias) very well, but its use results in a poor representation of temporal aspects, which are however captured very well in experiments over both smaller domains. Our findings suggest that there is no optimal choice of domain size, securing the best results for both spatial and temporal evaluation.     

Rock avalanching into a landslide-dammed lake causing multiple dam failure in Las Conchas valley (NW Argentina) — evidence from surface exposure dating and stratigraphic analyses

Generally landslide dams which exist for several hundreds to thousands of years are considered as stable. We show with an example from the Argentine Andes that such dams can exist for several thousands of years but still may fail catastrophically. Multiple rock avalanches impounded two lakes with surface areas of ~8 km² and ~600 km², respectively, in Las Conchas valley, NW Argentina. Surface exposure dating (SED) by ¹⁰Be of the rock-avalanche deposits or landslide scars indicates that these landslides occurred at 15,300±2,000 yr and 13,550±900 yr. The dams were stable during a strong earthquake, as suggested by seismites within related lake sediments and by multiple coeval landslides in this region, which occurred at ~7.5 kyr. However, when a further rock-avalanche fell into the lower, smaller lake at 4,800±500 yr the dam downriver was destroyed, presumably by the resulting tsunami wave. The resulting flood also destroyed an additional rock-fall dam which had formed at ~5,630 yr ¹⁴C cal BP 30 km downriver. The new dam formed by the second rock avalanche was eroded prior to 3,630 yr ¹⁴C cal BP. This dam erosion coincides with an important climatic shift towards more humid conditions in the Central Andes. Our results show that instead of direct effects of strong seismicity on landslide dams, (1) landsliding into a landslide-dammed lake, (2) abrupt hydrological changes, and (3) climate change towards conditions related to enhanced run-off are processes which can produce failures of quasi-stable natural dams.     

Survival of the Earth and the future evolution of the Sun

The question of the survival of the planet Earth as the Sun becomes a red giant and possibly a planetary nebula depends on the maximum extent of the Sun's envelope. This study shows that if the Earth is reached by this envelope, it will be destroyed; but if it is not, it will survive. Present stellar evolution calculations imply that the Earth will be destroyed.     

Accelerated climate change and its potential impact on Yak herding livelihoods in the eastern Tibetan plateau

The Tibetan Plateau has experienced rapid warming like most other alpine regions. Regional assessments show rates of warming comparable with the arctic region and decreasing Asian summer monsoons. We used meteorological station daily precipitation and daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 80 stations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau of southwest China to calculate local variation in the rates and seasonality of change over the last half century (1960–2008). Daily low temperatures during the growing season have increased greatly over the last 24 years (1984–2008). In sites of markedly increased warming (e.g., Deqin, Yunnan and Mangya, Qinghai), daily and growing season daily high temperatures have increased at a rate above 5 °C/100 years. In Deqin, precipitation prior to the 1980s fell as snow whereas in recent decades it has shifted to rain during March and April. These shifts to early spring rains are likely to affect plant communities. Animals like yaks adapted to cold climates are also expected to show impacts with these rising temperatures. This region deserves further investigation to determine how these shifts in climate are affecting local biodiversity and livelihoods.     

Textural evolution and metamorphism of pillow basalts from the Franciscan Complex,western Marin County,California

Petrogenesis of Franciscan pillow basalts from the Franciscan Complex of western Marin County California entails both dynamic crystallization of tholeiitic magma and subsequent low-temperature metamorphism. Brittle deformation during tectonic emplacement of pillow basalts into a chert greywacke terrain is manifested by the shearing of interpillow matrix and polishing of pillow rims, but the igneous textures within pillows are well preserved.The cooling history of pillow basalts can be understood through analysis of morphologic variations of primary olivine and plagioclase from rim to core of the pillow. Crystal sizes and plagioclase dendrite spacings are consisted with a cooling rate which generally decreases inward. Some pillows show a marked asymmetry in plagioclase and olivine morphology suggesting lower cooling rates caused by asymmetric cooling of the pillows. Olivine morphologies, primarily hopper and chain forms, are consistent with cooling rates of 2–10 °C/h for pillow cores and 50–75 °C/h for pillow rims.Low temperature hydrothermal alteration has produced secondary minerals indicative of zeolite facies conditions. Pillow matrix is either chloritic or zeolitic (in part laumontized). Pillow rims display incomplete replacement of calcic palagonite by pumpellyite (Fe₂O₃=9–21 wt%), prehnite (Fe₂O₃=5–7 wt%), sphene and quartz. Metamorphism of pillow interiors, manifested by: (1) veins of quartz, pumpellyite, calcite, or harmotome (BaO=15 wt%); (2) amygdules containing analcime, chlorite or quartz; and (3) replacement of olivine by pumpellyite or smectite/illite, of plagioclase by albite (An3)+sericite, and of glassy groundmass by fine-grained chlorite. Primary augite (Wo3₃₉En₁₃Fs₄₈) was not altered. The described paragenesis may be attributed to oceanfloor and/or Franciscan-type metamorphism.     

Poverty and HIV prevalence in Ghana: a geographical perspective

There is a widespread belief that poverty leads to the spread of HIV/AIDS. However, intra-country comparisons of the phenomenon have been limited. This study seeks to fill this gap by examining the relationship between poverty and HIV prevalence amongst the 10 administrative regions of Ghana. Based on the available data for poverty and HIV, certain distinct patterns emerge. For example, poverty levels are the highest in the three northern regions (Upper East, Upper West and Northern region) even though their HIV prevalence is one of the lowest. It clearly follows that there are more complex forces at work than just the effects of poverty alone. To unravel some of these puzzles, the paper proposes a key role for culture, globalization and geographical accessibility. In addition, it is suggested that local level studies in a multivariate framework have much to contribute to the identification and quantification of relevant relationships.     

UD-SV: Urban data services and visualization framework for sharing multidisciplinary research

With the widespread availability of a large volume of urban data, stakeholders from different domains require advanced tools to manage, visualize and understand cities and their evolution. During the last few years, researchers have proposed numerous research works and applications to illustrate the cities of the past and possible scenarios of the future under different conditions. However, many of these approaches are one-time solutions and not based on standards, making them obsolete and unusable for reproducible research. In this article, we present UD-SV: an Urban data-Services and Visualization open-source framework for multidisciplinary research to handle complex processing, analysis, and visualization of urban data. However, our goal is not to present a one-time monolithic software solution for urban data management and analysis, but we demonstrate the design and development of an open and interoperable software framework driven by use cases from diverse users to solve applied research challenges. The main contribution of UD-SV is that it uses open standards and open data with documented and reproducible processes with a particular emphasis on the reuse of existing open-source software components. We also show an enhanced use of standards to enable a shift toward components that are interchangeable or composable with other existing components in the GIS community.