Floods in the Sahel: an analysis of anomalies, memory, and anticipatory learning

This study explores the implications of recent extreme rainfall and flood events in the Sahel and the wider West African region for climate change adaptation. Are these events merely a temporal nuisance as suggested by the lingering desertification discourse or will more climatic extremes characterize the region over the next century? After reviewing incidences of severe rainfall and projected future climate variability, the paper examines local flood knowledge and decision-making, drawing upon a case study in Ghana. The data demonstrate that a variety of response strategies to flooding exist; yet, knowledge of and access to climate forecasts and other learning tools are essentially absent. So far, floods have not triggered mass displacement although cumulative environmental deterioration is likely to cause environmental refugees. The paper recommends to lay to rest the desertification narrative, consider the possibility of both floods and droughts, and mobilize local memory for anticipatory learning and practical adaptation.     

Climate change, adaptation and economic growth

This paper explores the links between economic growth and the impacts of climate change. Inclusive, pro-poor growth is central to the development of low-income countries. There is also a broad consensus that growth and development are important to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Growth does not automatically reduce vulnerability, only the right kind of growth does. The paper aims to develop a better understanding of what the ??right kind of growth?? may be. We find that many growth policies, such as investment in skills and access to finance, indeed reduce vulnerability to climate change. However, climate change calls for some adjustments in growth policy. In particular, investment in infrastructure and efforts to stimulate entrepreneurship and competitive markets must take more of a risk management perspective and recognise climate risks.     

What drives policy change for REDD+? A qualitative comparative analysis of the interplay between institutional and policy arena factors

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) has emerged as a promising climate change mitigation mechanism in developing countries. In order to identify the enabling conditions for achieving progress in the implementation of an effective, efficient and equitable REDD+, this paper examines national policy settings in a comparative analysis across 13 countries with a focus on both institutional context and the actual setting of the policy arena. The evaluation of REDD+ revealed that countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America are showing some progress, but some face backlashes in realizing the necessary transformational change to tackle deforestation and forest degradation. A Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) undertaken as part of the research project showed two enabling institutional configurations facilitating progress: (1) the presence of already initiated policy change; and (2) scarcity of forest resources combined with an absence of any effective forestry framework and policies. When these were analysed alongside policy arena conditions, the paper finds that the presence of powerful transformational coalitions combined with strong ownership and leadership, and performance-based funding, can both work as a strong incentive for achieving REDD+ goals.

Key policy insights

• The positive push of already existing policy change, or the negative stress of resource scarcity together with lack of effective policies, represents institutional conditions that can support REDD+ progress.

• Progress also requires the presence of powerful transformational coalitions and strong ownership and leadership. In the absence of these internal drivers, performance-based funding can work as a strong incentive.

• When comparing three assessments (2012, 2014, 2016) of REDD+ enabling conditions, some progress in establishing processes of change can be observed over time; however, the overall fluctuation in progress of most countries reveals the difficulty in changing the deforestation trajectory away from business as usual.

     

大气和植被生态及土壤系统水文过程相互作用的一些研究

利用我国测站的降水资料、卫星测得的OLR和高云量资料、SST和137°E次表层海温资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了东亚夏季风的爆发和北进的年际变化特征及其与热带西太平洋热状态的关系.分析结果表明:当春季热带西太平洋处于暖状态,菲律宾周围对流活动强,在这种情况下,南海上空对流层下层有气旋性距平环流,西太平洋副热带高压偏东,从而使得南海夏季风爆发早;并且,当夏季热带西太平洋也处于暖状态,菲律宾周围对流活动也很强,在这种情况下,西太平洋副热带高压北进时,在6月中旬和7月初存在明显的突跳,从而使得东亚季风雨带在6月中旬明显由华南北跳到江淮流域,并于7月初由江淮流域北跳到黄河流域、华北和东北地区.这将引起江淮流域和长江中、下游夏季风降水偏少,并往往发生干旱,而黄河流域、华北和东北地区的夏季降水正常或偏多.相反,当春季热带西太平洋处于冷状态,菲律宾周围对流活动弱,在这种情况下,南海上空对流层下层有反气旋性距平环流,西太平洋副热带高压偏西,从而使得南海夏季风爆发晚;并且,当夏季热带西太平洋也处于冷状态,菲律宾周围对流活动也很弱,在这种情况下,西太平洋副热带高压北进时,在6月中旬或7月初向北突跳并不明显,而是以渐进式向北移动,从而使得东亚季风雨带一直维持在长江流域和淮河流域.这将引起此两流域夏季风降水偏多,并往往发生洪涝,而黄河流域、华北和东北地区的夏季降水偏少,发生干旱.作者还从非线性多平衡态动力理论说明了菲律宾周围对流活动强弱对西太平洋副热带高压北进时以突跳或渐进式向北移动起到重要作用.     

Volcanic resurfacing and the early terrestrial crust: Zircon U-Pb and REE constraints from the Isua Greenstone Belt, southern West Greenland

The oldest known bona fide succession of clastic metasediments occurs in the Isua Greenstone Belt, SW Greenland and consists of a variety of mica schists and rare metaconglomerates. The metasediments are in direct contact with a felsic metavolcanic lithology that has previously been dated to 3.71 Ga. Based on trace element geochemical data for > 30 metasediments, we selected the six samples with highest Zr concentrations for zircon extraction. These samples all yielded very few or no zircon. Those extracted from mica schists yielded ion probe U/Pb ages between 3.70 and 3.71 Ga. One metaconglomerate sample yielded just a single zircon of 3.74 Ga age.The mica schist hosted zircons have U/Pb ages, Th / U ratios, REE patterns and Eu anomalies indistinguishable from zircon in the adjacent 3.71 Ga felsic metavolcanic unit. Trace element modelling requires the bulk of material in the metasediments to be derived from variably weathered mafic lithologies but some metasediments contain substantial contribution from more evolved source lithologies. The paucity of zircon in the mica schists is thus explained by incorporation of material from largely zircon-free volcanic lithologies. The absence of older zircon in the mica schists and the preponderance of mafic source material imply intense, mainly basaltic resurfacing of the early Earth. The implications of this process are discussed.Thermal considerations suggest that horizontal growth of Hadean crust by addition of mafic-ultramafic lavas must have triggered self-reorganisation of the protocrust by remelting. Reworking of Hadean crust may have been aided by burial of hydrated (weathered) metabasalt due to semi-continuous addition of new voluminous basalt outpourings. This process causes a bias towards eruption of Zr-saturated partial melts at the surface with O-isotope compositions potentially different from the mantle. The oldest zircons hosted in sediments would have been buried to substantial depth or formed in plutons that crystallised at some depth, from which it took hundreds of millions of years for them to be exhumed and incorporated into much younger sediments.     

Physical universals in problem of precursor soliton generation

Six physical universals and two general relations in the problem of locally forced precursor soliton generation are found thcoretically in terms of the AfKdV equation derived by authors. These six universals and two general relations are examined by experiment and numerical calculation of two-layer flow based on the canonical character of the coefficients of tlie fKdV equations. From comparisons among the theoretical, numerical and experimental results, it is shown that they are in good agreement. There is not any free parameter in this theory, so the theory of the present paper can be used to predict thc wave properties of locally forced precursor soliton generation. Project supported hy Foundation of the State Education Commission for The Dynamics of Upper Ocean and grants of Physical Oceanography Laboratory of Ocean University of Qingdao.     

Soil erosion and sediment transport in Tanzania: Part I – sediment source tracing in three neighbouring river catchments

Water bodies in Tanzania are experiencing increased siltation, which is threatening water quality, ecosystem health, and livelihood security in the region. This phenomenon is caused by increasing rates of upstream soil erosion and downstream sediment transport. However, a lack of knowledge on the contributions from different catchment zones, land-use types, and dominant erosion processes, to the transported sediment is undermining the mitigation of soil degradation at the source of the problem. In this context, complementary sediment source tracing techniques were applied in three Tanzanian river systems to further the understanding of the complex dynamics of soil erosion and sediment transport in the region. Analysis of the geochemical and biochemical fingerprints revealed a highly complex and variable soil system that could be grouped in distinct classes. These soil classes were unmixed against riverine sediment fingerprints using the Bayesian MixSIAR model, yielding proportionate source contributions for each catchment. This sediment source tracing indicated that hillslope erosion on the open rangelands and maize croplands in the mid-zone contributed over 75% of the transported sediment load in all three river systems during the sampling time-period. By integrating geochemical and biochemical fingerprints in sediment source tracing techniques, this study demonstrated links between land use, soil erosion and downstream sediment transport in Tanzania. This evidence can guide land managers in designing targeted interventions that safeguard both soil health and water quality.     

Biodegradation and environmental behavior of biodiesel mixtures in the sea: An initial study

Biodiesel, a mixture of fatty acid methyl esters (FAMEs) derived from animal fats or vegetable oils, is rapidly moving towards the mainstream as an alternative source of energy. However, the behavior of biodiesel, or blends of biodiesel with fossil diesel, in the marine environment have yet to be fully understood. Hence, we performed a series of initial laboratory experiments and simple calculations to evaluate the microbial and environmental fate of FAMEs. Aerobic seawater microcosms spiked with biodiesel or mixtures of biodiesel and fossil diesel revealed that the FAMEs were degraded at roughly the same rate as n-alkanes, and more rapidly than other hydrocarbon components. The residues extracted from these different microcosms became indistinguishable within weeks. Preliminary results from physical-chemical calculations suggest that FAMEs in biodiesel mixtures will not affect the evaporation rates of spilled petroleum hydrocarbons but may stabilize oil droplets in the water column and thereby facilitate transport.