An early estimate for the size of cycle 23

Two features are found in the modern era sunspot record (cycles 10–22: ca. 1850-present) that may prove useful for gauging the size of cycle 23, the next sunspot cycle, several years ahead of its actual onset. These features include an inferred long-term increase against time of maximum amplitude (RM, the maximum value of smoothed sunspot number for a cycle) and the apparently inherent differing natures of even- and odd-numbered sunspot cycles, especially when grouped consecutively as even-odd cycle pairs. Concerning the first feature, one finds that 6 out of the last 6 sunspot cycles have had RM 110.6 (the median value for the modern era record) and that 4 out of 6 have had RM > 150. Presuming this trend to continue, one anticipates that cycle 23 will likewise have RM 110.6 and, perhaps, RM > 150. Concerning the second feature, one finds that, when one groups sunspot cycles into consecutively paired even-odd cycles, the odd-following cycle has always been the larger cycle, 6 out of 6 times. Because cycle 22 had RM = 158.5, one anticipates that cycle 23 will have RM > 158.5. Additionally, because the average difference between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles is 40.3 units (sd = 14.2), one expects cycle 23 to have RM 162.3 (RM = 198.8 ± 36.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Further, because of the rather strong linear correlation (r = 0,959, se = 13.5) found between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles, one infers that cycle 23 should have RM 176.4 (RM = 213.9 ± 37.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Since large values of RM tend to be associated with fast rising cycles of short ascent duration and high levels of 10.7-cm solar radio flux, cycle 23 is envisioned to be potentially one of the greatest cycles of the modern era, if not the greatest.     

Helical structures around quiescent solar prominences computed from observable magnetic fields

We analyse the magnetic support of solar prominences in two-dimensional linear force-free fields. A line current is added to model a helical configuration, well suited to trap dense plasma in its bottom part. The prominence is modeled as a vertical mass-loaded current sheet in equilibrium between gravity and magnetic forces.We use a finite difference numerical technique which incorporates both vertical photospheric and horizontal prominence magnetic field measurements. The solution of this mixed boundary problem generally presents singularities at both the bottom and top of the model prominence. The removal of the singularities is achieved by superposition of solutions. Together with the line current equilibrium, these three conditions determine the amplitude of the magnetic field in the prominence, the flux below the prominence and the current intensity, for a given height of the line current. A numerical check of accuracy in the removal of singularities, is done by using known analytical solutions in the potential limit.We have investigated both bipolar and quadrupolar photospheric regions. In this mixed boundary problem the polarity of the field component orthogonal to the prominence is mainly fixed by the imposed height of the line current. For bipolar regions above (respectively below) a critical height the configuration is inverse (respectively normal). For quadrupolar regions the polarity is reversed if we refer the prominence polarity to the closest photospheric polarities. We introduce the polarity of the component parallel to the prominence axis with reference to a sheared arcade. Increasing the shear with fixed boundary conditions can increase or decrease the mass supported depending on the configuration.     

Detailed isophotometry of some galaxies,I

Results from a detailed isophotometric survey of NGC 5595, NGC 5597, NGC 5605, and NGC 7769 are given. It includes isophotic maps, luminosity profiles and ellipticity curves as well. Scanning of these galaxies was done in theB andV colours.     

The UV spectrum of the binary system SZ Psc

In this paper we study the far-UV as well as the UV spectrum of the spectroscopic binary system SZ Psc in the wavelength ranges 1235–1950 Å and 2710–3090 Å, respectively, from spectra obtained with the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE). The UV spectrum of SZ Psc is mainly an emission spectrum. The short wavelength region includes emission lines formed from the low chromosphere to the transition region (e.g., Siiv,Civ, andNv) and also a deep and broad absorption line of Feii.The Mgii[1] resonance doublet at about 2800 Å presents a P Cygni profile and a multiple structure with two emission and two absorption satellite components. We also present the emission measure diagram in the temperature region 4.4T _e <53.     

The shape and structure of Mimas

The Voyager images have shown that Mimas and Enceladus have regular shapes, with topography of the order of 1% of the diameter. Therefore, we can compare the global shapes of these satellites with the corresponding figures of gravitational equilibrium. In the case of Mimas, this comparison rules out a homogeneous interior, but implies the existence of a denser, presumably rocky core within this small icy satellite.     

Simulation of ionosphere-plasmasphere coupling taking into account ion inertia and temperature anisotropy

In this paper we offer a model for the Earth's ionosphere and plasmasphere, allowing for the inertia and anisotropic energy distribution of thermal plasma. A procedure for simultaneous solution of equations of continuity and motion for the O⁺ and H⁺ ions, subject to inertia terms, is described. The model also includes transfer equations for longitudinal and transversal thermal energies. The system of simulating equations and the kinetic equation for superthermal electron spectra are concordantly solved along geomagnetic field lines. Within the framework of the model we developed a study is made of the dynamics of filling of the evacuated plasmaspheric reservoir after a magnetospheric disturbance. It is shown that the filling of the tubes offorce with L ? 3.5 proceeds with supersonic speeds during the first several days and the character of filling differs very much from a diffusion-equilibrium one. The spatio-temporal behavior of electron and ion temperature anisotropy that is formed in the process of filling, is considered. It is found that the value of electron anisotropy can be large. A brief analysis is made of the causes of electron and ion temperature anisotropy.     

Response time of the high-latitude dayside ionosphere to sudden changes in the north-south component of the IMF

The time scale of the response of the high-latitude dayside ionospheric flow to changes in the North-South component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been investigated by examining the time delays between corresponding sudden changes. Approximately 40 h of simultaneous IMF and ionospheric flow data have been examined, obtained by the AMPTE-UKS and -IRM spacecraft and the EISCAT “Polar” experiment, respectively, in which 20 corresponding sudden changes have been identified. Ten of these changes were associated with southward turnings of the IMF, and 10 with northward turnings. It has been found that the corresponding flow changes occurred simultaneously over the whole of the “Polar” field-of-view, extending more than 2° in invariant latitude, and that the ionospheric response delay following northward turnings is the same as that following southward turnings, though the form of the response is different in the two cases. The shortest response time, 5.5 ± 3.2 min, is found in the early- to mid-afternoon sector, increasing to 9.5 ± 3.0 min in the mid-morning sector, and to 9.5 ± 3.1 min near to dusk. These times represent the delays in the appearance of perturbed flows in the “Polar” field-of-view following the arrival of IMF changes at the subsolar magnetopause. Overall, the results agree very well with those derived by Etemadi et al. (1988, Planet. Space Sci. 36, 471) from a general cross-correlation analysis of the IMF B_z and “Polar” beam-swinging vector flow data.     

Synthetic secular theories of the planetary orbits: Regular and chaotic behavior

Modern computer technology allows dynamical astronomers to investigate the long term stability of real systems as thoroughly as ever. However, the process is not straightforward and new problems need to be solved. This work deals with only one such problem: the construction-from the numerical integration- of a secular perturbation theory that is able to describe the dynamical behavior of the system. The discussion refers to the outer planets and is based on the knowledge acquired by the author during her participation in project LONGSTOP. A digital filter is used in order to reduce the output and eliminate short periodic terms. Filtering uncovers long term variations in the semimajor axes. From the filtered output a secular perturbation theory is constructed in the assumption that the solution is regular, as secular perturbation theories can only be constructed for regular solutions. If we succeed, this means that the solution is indeed regular for the computed span of time; if not-and this can be established in a rigorous way-it has to be concluded a posteriori that the solution is not regular. The LONGSTOP 1A and 1B integrations show well that as the timespan of the integration increases it is possible to detect the non-regular behavior of the solution. This happens in the eccentricity of Saturn at the 10^–4 level.     

Estimate for radiative forcing of smoke aerosol from 2010 summer fires based on measurements in the Moscow region

Temperature and radiation effects of the 2010 summer fires are estimated on the basis of measurements at the Zvenigorod Scientific Station (ZSS) of the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), in the Moscow region. The surface air temperature during the 2010 summer smoke varied in antiphase with the aerosol mass concentration, and the thermal radiation balance in the surface layer of the atmosphere varied in phase. Under extreme smoke of the surface layer in August 2010, the reduction in surface air temperature at ZSS has been found to reach 4 K with an increase in the downward flux of thermal radiation by an average of 20 W/m² and a decrease in the difference between upward and downward fluxes of thermal radiation by an average of 24 W/m².     

Russian studies of atmospheric electricity in 2011–2014

This review contains the most significant results of Russian studies in the field of atmospheric electricity in 2011–2014. It is part of the Russian National Report on Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences to the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS). The report was presented and approved at the XXVI General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG).¹ The review is followed by a list of the main published works on the studies of atmospheric electricity of Russian scientists in 2011–2014.