Introducing the Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI): a tool to quantify and communicate the intensity of volcanic unrest

Accurately observing and interpreting volcanic unrest phenomena contributes towards better forecasting of volcanic eruptions, thus potentially saving lives. Volcanic unrest is recorded by volcano observatories and may include seismic, geodetic, degassing and/or geothermal phenomena. The multivariate datasets are often complex and can contain a large amount of data in a variety of formats. Low levels of unrest are frequently recorded, causing the distinction between background activity and unrest to be blurred, despite the widespread usage of these terms in unrest literature (including probabilistic eruption-forecasting models) and in Volcanic Alert Level (VAL) systems. Frequencies and intensities of unrest episodes are not easily comparable over time or between volcanoes. Complex unrest information is difficult to communicate simply to civil defence personnel and other non-scientists. The Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI) is presented here to address these issues. The purpose of the VUI is to provide a semi-quantitative rating of unrest intensity relative to each volcano’s past level of unrest and to that of analogous volcanoes. The VUI is calculated using a worksheet of observed phenomena. Ranges for each phenomenon within the worksheet can be customised for individual volcanoes, as demonstrated in the companion paper for Taupo Volcanic Centre, New Zealand (Potter et al. 2015). The VUI can be determined retrospectively for historical episodes of unrest based on qualitative observations, as well as for recent episodes with state-of-the-art monitoring. This enables a long time series of unrest occurrence and intensity to be constructed and easily communicated to end users. The VUI can also assist with VAL decision-making. We present and discuss two approaches to the concept of unrest.     

The pre-Colombian footprint on terrestrial nutrient cycling in Costa Rica: insights from phosphorus in a lake sediment record

The impact of pre-Columbian subsistence agriculture on soil nutrient cycling in the American tropics is poorly quantified. Paleolimnological research can address this deficit by documenting the temporal evolution of nutrient cycling in lake watersheds over different time scales. Here we describe our use of a chemical sequential extraction technique adapted from soil fertility research to discern geochemical fractions of phosphorus (P) in lake sediments that serve as proxies for landscape-scale soil nutrient status. These P fractions are mineral P (the original lithic source of bioavailable P), occluded P (mainly bound to soil oxides), and organic P (remains of organic matter production by plants). We applied the P fractionation technique to a lake sediment core from a small lake in southern Costa Rica, Laguna Zoncho. Prior analyses of microfossils and stable carbon isotopes in this core documented an approximately 3,000 year history of human occupation and agricultural activity in the Zoncho watershed, and shifts in diatom communities in the lake associated both with human impacts and with climate-driven changes in lake level. Our P analyses revealed relatively constant P geochemistry during the first approximately 2,500 years of the record, when other sedimentary proxies reveal forest clearance and maize agriculture of varying intensity. However, the period from approximately 500 to 100 years BP is marked by a drastic shift toward a P geochemistry dominated by occluded forms, with a concomitant decrease in the relative content of both the organic and mineral P forms. This interval coincides with post-Conquest depopulation and forest regeneration at the site, and with an apparent deepening of the lake caused by a shift toward a wetter climate. The dominance of the occluded P fraction during this interval is the opposite of the trend expected with such a climate shift, implicating human dynamics as the principal driver of the changes in soil nutrient status indicated by the P fractions in the Zoncho core. We propose that the entire P geochemical record is dominated by human-induced alteration of the soil nutrient cycles via agriculture and occupation, and that the only interval that reveals the “natural” nutrient status in the region is the short interval when the site is abandoned and surrounding forests regrow. These results for Laguna Zoncho reveal the close connection between even relatively low-technology human activities and soil nutrient status.     

Mariner 9 photometric observations of Mars from November 1971 through March 1972

The large quantity of Mariner 9 television pictures taken at phase angles ranging up to twice those accessible from Earth has been used to describe intergrated photometric properties of Mars. Although frame-to-frame variations emphasize the shortcomings of vidicon cameras when used in a photometric mode, statistical trends have yielded data comparable with Earth-based observations.Analysis of atmospheric parameters over a period of changing opacity, November 1971 through March 1972, has provided time-varying optical depths and light-scattering information. Linear function characterization of the Mars reflectance is clearly discrepant at large incidence or emission angles and at phase angles greater than 40°.     

Diatom paleoecology of Laguna Zoncho,Costa Rica

We analyzed diatoms in a sediment profile from Laguna Zoncho in southern Pacific Costa Rica (lake elevation 1190 m asl, depth 2.6 m, area 0.75 ha) spanning some 3240 cal yr. Diatoms are common in the profile, which we subdivide into three zones. Zone C (3240–1020 cal yr B.P.) is dominated by Staurosira construens var. venter and Aulacoseira spp.; during this time, the lake was dilute and circumneutral. Benthic and acidophilous taxa increase gradually in the upper section of this zone. Zone B (1020–460 cal yr B.P.) almost totally lacks Aulacoseira, and instead is dominated by combinations of Eunotia minor, Encyonema lunatum, Gomphonema gracile, and Pinnularia braunii. Previous pollen and charcoal analysis indicates that this zone falls within the peak of prehistoric agricultural activity at the lake, but diatoms may also reflect climate change. During this period, the lake was likely shallower and more acidic, but not eutrophic. Finally, Zone A (460 cal yr B.P. to AD 1997) begins near a 1.5-cm tephra layer from nearby Volcán Barú; diatom assemblages are dominated by Aulacoseira spp., and suggest deepening of the lake and return to conditions similar to Zone C. This was a time of indigenous population decline and forest recovery in the Zoncho region, probably reflecting the impact of European diseases on the native population, although climate change and impacts of the tephra deposition cannot be wholly discounted.     

Factors contributing to the removal of a marine grass invader (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Spartina anglica</Emphasis>) and subsequent potential for habitat restoration

Our goal is to understand how removal regime and habitat type interact to influence removal success of a marine plant invader and the subsequent potential for restoration. In particular, we investigate the management program designed to eradicate the English cordgrass,Spartina anglica C. E. Hubbard, in marine intertidal habitats of Puget Sound, Washington, United States. Observational and manipulative experiments were used to measure the regrowth (vegetative growth), reinvasion (seedling recruitment), and restoration potential (return to native condition) of invaded habitats. Removal regime (consistent: yearly removal; interrupted: yearly removal with the last year missed) and habitat type (low salinity marsh, mudflat, cobble beach, and high salinity marsh sites) were considered. The response to removal regime was dramatic. Under consistent removal, cordgrass slowly declined but under interrupted removal, there was substantial regrowth of the invader. This pattern results from the resiliency of belowground biomass and the subsequent high aboveground productivity and seedling growth ofS. anglica. We also found that removal success depended on differences among sites that represent different habitat types. Cordgrass regrowth and reinvasion were substantially higher in the low salinity marsh sites where soils have lower salinity. We also found that at the low salinity marsh sites, some restoration of native plants and soil conditions was evident. At mudflat, cobble beach, and high salinity marsh sites, colonization of native vascular plants and algae not normally present, in the absence of the invasion, occurred. Whether these habitats will eventually revert back to the pre-invasion conditions over a longer period of time is unknown.     

The propagation of high frequency internal waves in the Celtic Sea

The continental slope to the south of the Celtic Sea is an area of extremely rough topography and tidal currents of the order of 50cm/s (with components both along and across the slope). This is a region of intense and complicated internal wave and internal tide activity. Historical current meter data from moorings close to the shelf-break show bursts of high frequency, large amplitude internal waves occurring, on average, at either once or twice per M2 tidal cycle. Wave packets at 9 moorings along the shelf-break and further on-shelf are identified using conditional sampling. The paths travelled by these wave packets are calculated using their fluctuation orientation, linear wave theory and the low frequency current. The records are up to 60 days long, allowing the ensemble statistics of propagation direction and wave characteristics to be calculated for a large number of wave packets. This analysis shows that only a fraction of the observed wave packets have orientations consistent with generation by the across-slope barotropic tide. This mechanism accounts for 20% of the wave packets in the north-west Celtic Sea and 29% in the southeast Celtic sea. A similar fraction of the wave packets (23% in the north west and 27% in the south east) have orientations clearly consistent with generation by an along-slope flow over the rough topography on the slope. The remaining wave packets are attributed to generation by tidal flow over topography close to the moorings and possibly internal wave resonance within canyons.     

Mucky carrots and other proxies: Problematising the knowledge-fix for sustainable and ethical consumption

This paper uses evidence from focus groups in England to consider how consumers think about and, more importantly, distinguish foods by both primary and secondary qualities, using both their own judgement but also advice produced by various organisations acting as ‘knowledge intermediaries’, such as independent certification bodies. We thus consider the ‘sorting out’ that consumers do with food, particularly in developing typologies of ‘goodness’ and ‘badness’, and the cues on which they base these judgements, from the material immediacy of ‘mucky carrots’ to the abstract remoteness of organic certification. In particular, we problematise the ‘knowledge-fix’ that underlies attempts to provide knowledge to promote more sustainable and ethical consumption. This raises problems of how consumers give assurance schemes meaning, how ethical and sustainable schemes are subject to re-fetishization and how consumers tend towards increasing scepticism and distrust of such claims, thus making a ‘politics of reconnection’ far from easy.