Assessing regression‐based statistical approaches for downscaling precipitation over North America

This paper assesses linear regression‐based methods in downscaling daily precipitation from the general circulation model (GCM) scale to a regional climate model (RCM) scale (45‐ and 15‐km grids) and down to a station scale across North America. Traditional downscaling experiments (linking reanalysis/dynamical model predictors to station precipitation) as well as nontraditional experiments such as predicting dynamic model precipitation from larger‐scale dynamic model predictors or downscaling dynamic model precipitation from predictors at the same scale are conducted. The latter experiments were performed to address predictability limit and scale issues. The results showed that the downscaling of daily precipitation occurrence was rarely successful at all scales, although results did constantly improve with the increased resolution of climate models. The explained variances for downscaled precipitation amounts at the station scales were low, and they became progressively better when using predictors from a higher‐resolution climate model, thus showing a clear advantage in using predictors from RCMs driven by reanalysis at its boundaries, instead of directly using reanalysis data. The low percentage of explained variances resulted in considerable underestimation of daily precipitation mean and standard deviation. Although downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors (or RCM precipitation from RCM predictors) cannot really be considered downscaling, as there is no change in scale, the exercise yields interesting information as to the limit in predictive ability at the station scale. This was especially clear at the GCM scale, where the inability of downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors demonstrates that GCM precipitation‐generating processes are largely at the subgrid scale (especially so for convective events), thus indicating that downscaling precipitation at the station scale from GCM scale is unlikely to be successful. Although results became better at the RCM scale, the results indicate that, overall, regression‐based approaches did not perform well in downscaling precipitation over North America. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the ‘two water worlds’ hypothesis and water sources for native and exotic evergreen species in south‐central Chile

Recent studies using water‐stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) have suggested an ecohydrological separation of water flowing to streams or recharging groundwater and water used by trees, known as the ‘two water worlds’ (TWW) hypothesis. In this study, we measured water isotopic composition in precipitation [open field and throughfall, i.e. local meteoric water line (LMWL)] and the mobile water compartment (i.e. stream and soil solution), bulk soil water and xylem water over a period of 1.5 years in two headwater catchments: NF, covered with old growth native evergreen forest (Aetoxicon punctatum, Laureliopsis philippiana and Eucriphya cordifolia), and EP, covered with 4 and 16‐year‐old Eucalyptus nitens stands. Our results show that precipitation, stream and soil solution plot approximately along the LMWL, while xylem waters from all studied tree species plot below the LMWL, supporting the TWW hypothesis. However, we also found evidence of ecohydrological connectivity during the wet season, likely controlled by the amount of antecedent precipitation. These observations hold for all investigated tree species. On both sites, a different precipitation source for stream and xylem water was observed. However, in EP, bulk soil showed a similar precipitation source as xylem water from both E. nitens stands. This suggests that E. nitens may use water that is recharging the bulk soil compartment. We conclude that under a rainy temperate climate, the TWW hypothesis is temporal and does not apply during wet seasons. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

8000 years of vegetation history in the northern Iberian Peninsula inferred from the palaeoenvironmental study of the Zalama ombrotrophic bog (Basque‐Cantabrian Mountains,Spain)

This paper focuses on pollen, spores, non‐pollen palynomorphs (NPPs) and certain geochemical elements from the ombrotrophic blanket bog of Zalama (Basque‐Cantabrian Mountains, northern Iberian Peninsula), with the support of a robust chronology based on 17 AMS ¹⁴C dates. The main results related to the last 8000 years show that, during the early middle Holocene, pines and deciduous forests were the most extensive tree formations. At the beginning of the succession, pines reach 44%, showing regional presence, whereas after 7600 cal. a BP, deciduous forests were particularly abundant. From c. 6500 cal. a BP the pollen diagram constructed from our samples shows the first anthropogenic evidence, linked with the new economic practices related to the Neolithic of the Basque‐Cantabrian Mountains. From 3300 cal. a BP the expansion of Fagus sylvatica is particularly clear, and has since then become one of the dominant forest species in this region. We also discuss the Holocene evolution of other noteworthy plant communities in southwestern Europe, such as Taxus baccata, Juglans and shrublands.     

Modelling sediment deposition and phosphorus retention in a river floodplain

Phosphorus (P) is one of the major limiting nutrient in many freshwater ecosystems. During the last decade, attention has been focused on the fluxes of suspended sediment and particulate P through freshwater drainage systems because of severe eutrophication effects in aquatic ecosystems. Hence, the analysis and prediction of phosphorus and sediment dynamics constitute an important element for ecological conservation and restoration of freshwater ecosystems. In that sense, the development of a suitable prediction model is justified, and the present work is devoted to the validation and application of a predictive soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) uptake and sedimentation models, to a real riparian system of the middle Ebro river floodplain. Both models are coupled to a fully distributed two‐dimensional shallow‐water flow numerical model. The SRP uptake model is validated using data from three field experiments. The model predictions show a good accuracy for SRP concentration, where the linear regressions between measured and calculated values of the three experiments were significant (r² ≥ 0.62; p ≤ 0.05), and a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (E) that ranged from 0.54 to 0.62. The sedimentation model is validated using field data collected during two real flooding events within the same river reach. The comparison between calculated and measured sediment depositions showed a significant linear regression (p ≤ 0.05; r² = 0.97) and an E that ranged from 0.63 to 0.78. Subsequently, the complete model that includes flow dynamics, solute transport, SRP uptake and sedimentation is used to simulate and analyse floodplain sediment deposition, river nutrient contribution and SRP uptake. According to this analysis, the main SRP uptake process appears to be the sediment sorption. The analysis also reveals the presence of a lateral gradient of hydrological connectivity that decreases with distance from the river and controls the river matter contribution to the floodplain. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.