Analysis of recharge conceptualization in inverse groundwater modelling

ABSTRACT

This study presents a systematic illustration quantifying how misleading the calibration results of a groundwater simulation model can be when recharge rates are considered as the model parameters to be estimated by inverse modelling. Three approaches to recharge estimation are compared: autocalibration (Model 1), the empirical return coefficient method (Model 2), and distributed hydrological modelling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT (Model 3). The methodology was applied in the Dehloran Plain, western Iran, using the MODFLOW modular flow simulator and the PEST method for autocalibration. The results indicate that, although Model 1 performed the best in simulating water levels at observation wells in the calibration stage, it did not perform satisfactorily in real future scenarios. Model 3, with SWAT-based recharge rates, performed better than the other models in the validation stage. By not evaluating the model performance solely on calibration results, we demonstrate the relative significance of using more accurate recharge estimates when calibrating groundwater simulation models.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR M. Besbes     

System dynamics approach for simulating water resources of an urban water system with emphasis on sustainability of groundwater

Water resources management is an important driver in social and economic development. Water shortage is one of the most critical issues threatening human welfare, public health, and ecosystems. This issue has turned into a major challenge in many river basins all around the world due to the imbalance in water supply and demand. Use of simulation models can be effective tools in providing water managers with scientifically supported decisions in dealing with complex and uncertain water resource systems. System dynamics approach serves as a management tool and may play an important role in understanding the cause–effect in water resources systems. In the present study, system dynamics approach was applied to simulate management strategies dealing with Tehran metropolitan water resources systems. In the developed model, the trend of water storage in the next 30-year period and the effectiveness of water supply strategies were simulated. The results showed that, despite the growing shortage of the water resources, optimal use of existing resources under appropriate strategies could reduce water deficit within the next 30 years.     

Identifying sky conditions in Iran from MODIS Terra and Aqua cloud products

Clouds can influence climate through many complex interactions within the hydrological cycle. Due to the important effects of cloud cover on climate, it is essential to study its variability over certain geographical areas. This study provides a spatial and temporal distribution of sky conditions, cloudy, partly cloudy, and clear days, in Iran. Cloud fraction parameters were calculated based on the cloud product(collection 6_L2) obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) sensors on board the Terra(MOD06) and Aqua(MYD06) satellites. The cloud products were collected daily from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2014(12 years) with a spatial resolution of 5 km × 5 km. First, the cloud fraction data were converted into a regular geographic coordinate network over Iran. Then, the estimations from both sensors were analyzed. Results revealed that the maximum annual frequency of cloudy days occurs along the southern shores of the Caspian Sea, while the minimum annual frequency occurs in southeast Iran. On average, the annual number of cloudy and clear-sky days was 88 and 256 d from MODIS Terra, as compared to 96 and 244 d from MODIS Aqua. Generally, cloudy and partly cloudy days decrease from north to south, and MODIS Aqua overestimates the cloudy and partly cloudy days compared to MODIS Terra.     

The interannual precipitation variability in the southern part of Iran as linked to large-scale climate modes

The interannual variation of precipitation in the southern part of Iran and its link with the large-scale climate modes are examined using monthly data from 183 meteorological stations during 1974–2005. The majority of precipitation occurs during the rainy season from October to May. The interannual variation in fall and early winter during the first part of the rainy season shows apparently a significant positive correlation with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, a partial correlation analysis used to extract the respective influence of IOD and ENSO shows a significant positive correlation only with the IOD and not with ENSO. The southeasterly moisture flux anomaly over the Arabian Sea turns anti-cyclonically and transport more moisture to the southern part of Iran from the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea, and the Persian Gulf during the positive IOD. On the other hand, the moisture flux has northerly anomaly over Iran during the negative IOD, which results in reduced moisture supply from the south. During the latter part of the rainy season in late winter and spring, the interannual variation of precipitation is more strongly influenced by modes of variability over the Mediterranean Sea. The induced large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly controls moisture supply from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.     

Intercontinental response to variations in the Arabia-Eurasia Plate convergence,calcite e-twin evidence of the Kuhbanan Fault system,Central Iran

Variations in the plate convergence direction have generally reflected on the kinematics of the major fault zones developed in the intercontinental parts of the collision zones. The Kuhbanan Fault system is one of the most important intercontinental faults in the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone with a dextral strike slip mechanism. This fault system is composed of three fault strands including Kuhbanan, Bazargan, and Kerman Faults. Here we used calcite e-twin analysis of the vein samples developed in these fault zones to reconstruct deformation condition and the paleodifferential stress direction and magnitude at the Kuhbanan Fault system. Our results represent 190°C-200°C of the deformation temperature and related 5–6 ± 1 km of deformation depth at the Kuhbanan Fault system. Calculated paleodifferential stress magnitude in the Kuhbanan Fault system using e-twin parameters ranges from 169-196 MPa similar to the inner parts of the orogenic systems. Comparing the data set of the Kuhbanan Fault system with previous studies at the Zagros orogen represents an increase of deformation depth and paleodifferential stress magnitudes from the foreland of the Zagros orogen to its hinterland and finally northward around the Kuhbanan Fault system in the central Iranian blocks. We have also proposed a shift of the stress direction from paleo NE to recent N directed by comparing paleostress direction deduced from the calcite e-twin and recent stress direction calculated from GPS and earthquake data analysis around the Kuhbanan Fault system. This kinematics change due to plate reorganization is in agreement with the observed regional variation in convergence direction all in the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone.     

Green and Eco‐Friendly Removal of Mycotoxins with Organo‐Bentonites; Isothermal,Kinetic, and Thermodynamic Studies

In the current study the application of organo‐modified bentonite for the adsorption of mycotoxins (aflatoxin B1, citrinin, patulin, and zearalenone) is presented. The modification of clays is carried out using benzyl‐tri‐n‐butyl ammonium bromide (BTB), benzethonium chloride (BTC), and dioctyl sodium sulfosuccinate (DSS). Various experimental parameters such as pH, time, adsorbent dose, and mycotoxins concentration are thoroughly studied. The modified clays (B‐BTB, B‐BTC and B‐DSS) are characterized by X‐ray fluorescence, X‐ray diffraction, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The results depicted the high detoxification efficiency (≈99%) of modified clays for the removal of mycotoxins under optimized conditions (pH 5, time: 30 min, adsorbent amount: 50 mg). The adsorption capacities of modified clays are found in the order of: B‐BTC (AFB1: 18.02, CIT: 18.35, PAT: 18.21, ZEA: 18.09 mg g^?1) > B‐BTB (AFB1: 17.7, CIT: 18.11, PAT: 17.95, ZEA: 17.90 mg g^?1) > B‐DSS (AFB1: 17.5, CIT: 18.02, PAT: 17.86, ZEA: 17.80 mg g^?1). The obtained results fitted well with thermodynamic, isothermal (Langmuir) and pseudo‐second order kinetics. Low cost organo‐modified bentonite shows the promise in mitigating mycotoxin contamination, which could improve food safety and reduce environmental contamination.     

Age and composition of Antarctic sub-glacial bedrock reflected by detrital zircons,erratics, and recycled microfossils in the Ellsworth Land–Antarctic Peninsula–Weddell Sea–Dronning Maud Land sector (240°E–0°–015°E)

The age and composition of the 14 × 10⁶ km² of Antarctica's surface obscured by ice is unknown except for some dated detrital minerals and erratics. In remedy, we present four new analyses (U–Pb age, T_DM^C, εHf, and rock type) of detrital zircons from Neogene turbidites as proxies of Antarctic bedrock, and review published proxies: detrital hornblendes analysed for Ar–Ar age and bulk Sm–Nd isotopes; Pb isotope compositions of detrital K-feldspars; erratics and dropstones that reflect age and composition; and recycled microfossils that reflect age and facies. This work deals with the 240°E–0°–015°E sector, and complements Veevers and Saeed's (2011) analysis of the 70°E–240°E sector. Each sample is located in its ice-drainage basin for backtracking to the potential provenance. Gaps in age between sample and upslope exposure are specifically attributable to the provenance. The major provenance of detritus west of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is West Antarctica, and of detritus east of the AP East Antarctica. We confirm that the Central Antarctic provenance about a core of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains (GSM) and the Vostok Subglacial Highlands (VSH) contains a basement that includes igneous (mafic granitoids) and metamorphic rocks with peak U–Pb ages of 0.65–0.50, 1.20–0.9, 2.1–1.9, 2.8–2.6, and 3.35–3.30 Ga, T_DM^C of 3.6–1.3 Ga, and mainly negative εHf. The potential provenance of zircons of 650–500 Ma age with T_DM^C ages of 1.55 Ga, and of zircons of 1200–900 Ma age with positive εHf lies beneath the ice in East Antarctica south and southeast of Dronning Maud Land within the Antarctic part of the East African–Antarctic Orogen. Zircons with the additional ages of 1.7–1.4 Ga, 2.1–1.9 Ga, and 3.35–3.00 Ga have a potential provenance in the GSM.     

Propulsion Performance of Spanwise Flexible Wing Using Unsteady Panel Method

In this paper, the propulsion performance of a spanwise flexible oscillating wing, which is broadly similar to the undulation of a fin fluke, is investigat