Prediction of riverine suspended sediment discharge using fuzzy logic algorithms, and some implications for estuarine settings

The ability of fuzzy logic algorithms to model relationships between stream flow and suspended sediment discharge was investigated using daily measurements of stream flow and suspended sediment discharge for the Escanaba River mouth station, situated on the shore of Lake Michigan and operated by the US Geological Survey. Three different configurations of inputs were applied, whereby the inputs were fuzzified into fuzzy subsets of variables by means of triangular membership functions. The relationships between inputs and suspended sediment discharge (output) were represented by a set of fuzzy rule expressed in IF–THEN format. The weighted average method served for defuzzification. The commonly used sediment rating curve was also applied to the data, and its performance compared with that of the three models by means of statistical analyses. For all three models, suspended sediment discharge predicted by the fuzzy logic algorithm was in satisfactory agreement with observations. Furthermore, the fuzzy logic algorithms performed better than the sediment rating curve, particularly at higher rates of suspended sediment discharge (in this study, more than 50  × 10⁶ g/day). Considered collectively, the use of fuzzy logic algorithms is suggested as a simple and effective approach for better prediction of suspended sediment discharge, also for estuaries.     

PROMETHEE II and fuzzy AHP: an enhanced GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping

This paper describes the application of a well-known multi-criteria decision-making technique, called preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE II), in combination with fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP), as a weighting technique to explore landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM). To this end, eight landslide-related geodata layers of the Minoo Dasht located in the Gorgan province of Iran, involving slope, aspect, distance to river, drainage density, distance to fault, mean annual rainfall, distance to road and lithology have been integrated using the PROMETHEE II enhanced by FAHP technique. Afterward, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves for the proposed LSM were drawn using an inventory of landslides containing 83 recent and historic landslide points, and the area under curve = 0.752 value was calculated accordingly. Additionally, to further verify the practicality of such susceptibility map, it was also evaluated against the landslide inventory using simple overlay. The outcome was that about 11 % of the occurred landslide points fall into the very high susceptibility class of the LSM, but approximately 52 % of them indeed fall into the high and very high susceptibility zones together. Also, it resulted that no recorded landslide occurred in the zone of very low susceptibility. According to the results of the ROC curves analysis and simple overlay evaluation, the produced map has exhibited good performance.     

俄罗斯贝加尔湖-日本石卷地学断面西段地质-地球物理基本特征

对于贝加尔湖-石卷地学断面(BAMSIP)的西段俄罗斯贝加尔湖-中国满洲里断面城内的地质构造背景、地震剖面波类型和基本特征等研究发现：(1)断面域中贝加尔裂谷带地震波速度结构存在异常地幔带；结晶地壳物质成分基性程度较高；基底顶面和Moho界面未观察到明显的镜象关系；(2)西伯利亚南部的复杂相故基底由古生代和前寒武纪岩层所组构；区域构造由古褶皱系、中生代沉积盆地、裂谷带构成。     

Frequency analysis of climate extreme events in Zanjan, Iran

In this study, generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) were fitted to the maximum and minimum temperature, maximum wind speed, and maximum precipitation series of Zanjan. Maximum (minimum) daily and absolute annual observations of Zanjan station from 1961 to 2011 were used. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Quantiles corresponding to 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return periods were calculated. It was found that both candidate distributions fitted to extreme events series, were statistically reasonable. Most of the observations from 1961 to 2011 were found to fall within 1–10 years return period. Low extremal index (θ) values were found for excess maximum and minimum temperatures over a high threshold, indicating the occurrence of consecutively high peaks. For the purpose of filtering the dependent observations to obtain a set of approximately independent threshold excesses, a declustering method was performed, which separated the excesses into clusters, then the de-clustered peaks were fitted to the GPD. In both models, values of the shape parameters of extreme precipitation and extreme wind speed were close to zero. The shape parameter was less negative in the GPD than the GEV. This leads to significantly lower return period estimates for high extremes with the GPD model.     

Intercontinental response to variations in the Arabia-Eurasia Plate convergence,calcite e-twin evidence of the Kuhbanan Fault system,Central Iran

Variations in the plate convergence direction have generally reflected on the kinematics of the major fault zones developed in the intercontinental parts of the collision zones. The Kuhbanan Fault system is one of the most important intercontinental faults in the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone with a dextral strike slip mechanism. This fault system is composed of three fault strands including Kuhbanan, Bazargan, and Kerman Faults. Here we used calcite e-twin analysis of the vein samples developed in these fault zones to reconstruct deformation condition and the paleodifferential stress direction and magnitude at the Kuhbanan Fault system. Our results represent 190°C-200°C of the deformation temperature and related 5–6 ± 1 km of deformation depth at the Kuhbanan Fault system. Calculated paleodifferential stress magnitude in the Kuhbanan Fault system using e-twin parameters ranges from 169-196 MPa similar to the inner parts of the orogenic systems. Comparing the data set of the Kuhbanan Fault system with previous studies at the Zagros orogen represents an increase of deformation depth and paleodifferential stress magnitudes from the foreland of the Zagros orogen to its hinterland and finally northward around the Kuhbanan Fault system in the central Iranian blocks. We have also proposed a shift of the stress direction from paleo NE to recent N directed by comparing paleostress direction deduced from the calcite e-twin and recent stress direction calculated from GPS and earthquake data analysis around the Kuhbanan Fault system. This kinematics change due to plate reorganization is in agreement with the observed regional variation in convergence direction all in the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone.     

Evaluation of sediment contamination in the Red Sea coastal area combining multiple pollution indices and multivariate statistical techniques

In the recent years,the Red Sea coast of Yemen has been severely affected by intensive anthropogenic activities.The current study constitutes a thorough inquiry to evaluate the extent of heavy metals pollution in Yemen's Red Sea coast sediment and identifies the possible sources of pollution.The concentrations of five metals(copper(Cu),zinc(Zn),cadmium(Cd),lead(Pb),and nickel(Ni))collected from nine sites along the Red Sea coast of Yemen were assessed using an atomic absorption spectrophotometer(ASS).Sediment quality indices,such as the sediment quality guidelines(SQGs),potential ecological risk(RI),contamination factor(CF),pollution load index(PLI),geoaccumulation index(Igeo),and modified degree of contamination(mCd)were computed.In addition,multivariate statistical techniques(principal component analysis(PCA),hierarchical cluster analysis,and Pearson's correlation analysis)were applied to identify the potential sources of metals.The mean concentrations of Cu,Zn,Cd,Pb,and Ni were 51.3,61.9,4.02,9.9,and 33.4 mg/kg dry wt,respectively.The spatial distribution revealed that the metals concentrations were high at the middle zone and low southward of Hodeida city.According to the SQGs,the adverse biological effects of metals were occasionally associated with Cu and Cd,frequently associated with Ni,and not expected to occur with Zn and Pb.The RI indicated that the sediment of the studied sites pose low(RI<50)to considerable(100≤RI<200)ecological risk.The mean effect range-median quotient(M-ERM-Q)indicated that the combination of the studied metals had the toxicity probability of 21%at all studied sites.Igeo and CF indicated that the metals concentrations were in the descending order of:Zn>Ni>Pb>Cd>Cu,whereas the PLI and mCd indicated that Ras Isa(Site 5)and Urj village(Site 6)were the most polluted sites.PCA,cluster analysis,and correlation analysis found that Cd,Pb,and Ni mostly originated from anthropogenic sources while Cu and Zn were mainly derived from natural sources.Thus,it is evident that the intensive anthropogenic activities had negative influence on metals accumulation in the sediment of the Red Sea coast of Yemen leading to detrimental effects to the whole ecosystem.These comprehensive findings provide valuable information and data for future monitoring studies regarding heavy metals pollution and sediment quality at the Red Sea coast of Yemen.     

Optical and physical characterization of ��Iraqi freedom�� dust storm, a case study

Kuwait was exposed to a severe dust storm on 19 March 2003, the eve of operation ??Iraqi Freedom??. Three days of dust events (19, 26, 27 March) were analyzed for their aerosol optical and physical properties using ground-based and satellite-retrieved measurements. Ground-based measurements of aerosol optical depth (or thickness; AOD or AOT) at 675?nm, ?? ₆₅₇, ?ngstrom coefficient ?? _936/657, particulate matter of diameter 10???m or less, PM₁₀ (??g/m³), and meteorological parameters were analyzed for March 2003. AOT exceeded 3 for the 3?days of interest and PM₁₀ concentrations reached as high value as 2,457???g/m³ on 19 March dust storm day. Retrieved aerosol characteristics from space using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) on board Terra and Aqua satellite were examined against ground-based measurements. A strong correlation was found between ground-based measurements of ?? ₆₇₅ and the Terra-MODIS retrieved AOD₅₅₀. The synoptic of the dust storm were analyzed and source regions were identified using back trajectory analysis and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer Aerosol Index.     

System dynamics approach for simulating water resources of an urban water system with emphasis on sustainability of groundwater

Water resources management is an important driver in social and economic development. Water shortage is one of the most critical issues threatening human welfare, public health, and ecosystems. This issue has turned into a major challenge in many river basins all around the world due to the imbalance in water supply and demand. Use of simulation models can be effective tools in providing water managers with scientifically supported decisions in dealing with complex and uncertain water resource systems. System dynamics approach serves as a management tool and may play an important role in understanding the cause–effect in water resources systems. In the present study, system dynamics approach was applied to simulate management strategies dealing with Tehran metropolitan water resources systems. In the developed model, the trend of water storage in the next 30-year period and the effectiveness of water supply strategies were simulated. The results showed that, despite the growing shortage of the water resources, optimal use of existing resources under appropriate strategies could reduce water deficit within the next 30 years.