Neural network and wavelet conjunction model for modelling monthly level fluctuations in Turkey

This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

X-ray,Hα, and radio observations of the two-ribbon flare of 16 May, 1981

The paper is a contribution to the study of two-ribbon flares. A variety of observational material, i.e. Hα pictures, radio spectrum in the frequency band of 150–1000 MHz, radio map at 6 cm, fluxes at other frequencies, magnetograms and X-ray flux in a broad energy interval, enabled us to study the development of the 16 May, 1981 flare. The onset of the flare could be described by the model of Van Tend and Kuperus. A diminishing of the magnetic shear during the activation of the filament was observed. From radio and X-ray data it was found that pulsed acceleration took place in the region under the rising filament, the electrons propagating in a limited region both upwards to greater heights and downwards into the footpoints. Internal oscillations of the filament were observed. A manifestation of the primary process of interplanetary shock-wave generation was found. The 6 cm radio sources could be localized in the footpoints of magnetic loops.     

The design of the Central-Axis Reflector (ZAS)

The Central-Axis Reflector, the design principle which is presented below is a segmented-mirror telescope. The inventions relate mainly to the optical system and to the tracking apparatus.A large number of small individual mirror bodies, ground off-axis (hexagonal/polygonal) produce one primary mirror with closed circular aperture when joined together.The overall design of the tracking apperatus results directly —and thus without unnecessary adornment — from the two planes of to aminimum but which are required for tracking of the telescope.Paper presented at the Symposium on the JNLT and Related Engineering Developments, Tokyo, November 29–December 2, 1988.     

UBV photometry of HR 1176

We present photoelectricUBV observations of the suspected Caii emission line star HR 1176. A period analysis of the observations by using the method of Shell-Metzner failed to yield any true period which is probably due to (i) the large gaps in the observations, (ii) low-amplitude variation, and (iii) the nonconstancy of the period, or there may be no regular light variation. A visual inspection of the present observations shows no systematic or abrupt variability except some scatter. However, a long period eclipsing nature of HR 1176 cannot be ruled out by this observations.     

On depth-dependence of photospheric oscillations

We report on results from photographic observations of photospheric oscillations as a function of depth. Using rms-values and power-spectra from shifts of entire line-profiles, we find qualitatively an increase of the velocity-amplitude with increasing height. We get more quantitative informations by comparing measured asymmetries of line-profiles with calculated ones derived from Voigt-functions containing a depth dependent velocity-field.We find the scale-height H ₀ of photospheric velocity oscillations to be 930±100 km. This result is to be compared with H ₀ = 1100±200 km obtained by Canfield (1976), who used velocity weighting functions of the line centres.Further, we show that a general observed line asymmetry of medium strong lines (c-shape) does not depend on the phase of oscillations.Mitt. aus dem Kiepenheuer-Institut Nr. 178.     

Cosmic ray fluctuations in compressible turbulent medium

The influence of compressibility of the medium on cosmic ray (CR) fluctuations has been investigated. The CR transport equation has been used to obtain an equation for the second moment of CR particle density (correlation function of the particle density). It is shown that the effects due to the compressibility of the medium has an essential influence on CR fluctuations. The relations between CR power spectra and random velocity field have been determined. For the turbulence which is created by an ensemble of weak sound waves we have obtained the connection between the spectral indices of CR power spectra and the velocity field. It is shown that the spectral indices of CR power spectra and the velocity field of random sound waves coincide.     

The radius of the Sun at centimeter waves and the brightness distribution across the disk

We report observations of the solar radio radius at wavelengths between 1.2 and 11 cm performed with the Bonn 100 m-telescope. In combination with former measurements of the centre-to-limb variation of the solar brightness these observations are discussed in terms of atmospheric models. We consider the solar disk to be covered by arches at low latitudes, while at the poles coronal holes are located. The temperature dependence on height is taken from EUV-line intensities, hydrostatic equilibrium is adopted, spicules are assumed to be responsible for the relatively low brightening. The interpretation of our measurements demands certain values of the brightness temperature of spicules as a function of wavelength within a modest interval.