河北平原水系密度与隐伏活动构造的关系

以1926年出版的比例尺为1：5万的顺直地形图作为基础图件，用地理信息系统技术对河北平原作水系密度计量分析，揭示隐伏在第四纪巨厚的沉积物之下活动构造的信息，研究结果证实水系线密度统计图与使用其它地球科学方法获得的成果，例如基底活动断块图，地貌类型图和第四纪厚度图都有很好的对应，特别与布格重力图对应更好，研究结果发现水系密度图与布格重力异常图在总体一致性较好的前提下，多处反向异常区均为近代强震发生的区域，提出这种地表水系密度统计研究的成果不仅可以揭示深部隐伏的活动构造，而且具有较明确的时间含义。     

A Time Monte Carlo method for addressing uncertainty in land-use change models

One of the main objectives of land-use change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in recent years. Many current models consider uncertainty by including a randomness component in their structure. In this paper, we present a novel approach for tuning uncertainty over time, which we refer to as the Time Monte Carlo (TMC) method. The TMC uses a specific range of randomness to allocate new land uses. This range is associated with the transition probabilities from one land use to another. The range of randomness is increased over time so that the degree of uncertainty increases over time. We compare the TMC to the randomness components used in previous models, through a coupled logistic regression-cellular automata model applied for Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Our analysis reveals that the TMC produces results comparable with existing methods over the short-term validation period (2000–2010). Furthermore, the TMC can tune uncertainty on longer-term time horizons, which is an essential feature of our method to account for greater uncertainty in the distant future.     

Hydrocarbon generation and expulsion characteristics of Lower Permian P1f source rocks in the Fengcheng area,northwest margin,Junggar Basin,NW China: implications for tight oil accumulation potential assessment

Combined with the actual geological settings, tight oil is the oil that occurs in shale or tight reservoirs, which has permeability less than 1 mD and is interbedded with or close to shale, including tight dolomitic oil and shale oil. The Fengcheng area (FA), at the northwest margin of the Junggar Basin, northwest China, has made significant progress in the tight oil exploration of the Fengcheng (P₁f) Formation recently, which indicates that the tight oil resources have good exploration prospects. Whereas the lack of recognition of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion characteristics of Permian P₁f source rocks results in the misunderstanding of tight oil resource potential. Based on the comprehensive analysis of geological and geochemical characteristics of wells, seismic inversion, sedimentary facies, tectonic burial depth, etc., the characteristics of P₁f source rocks were investigated, and the horizontal distributions of the following aspects were predicted: the thickness of source rocks, abundance and type of organic matter. And on this basis, an improved hydrocarbon generation potential methodology together with basin simulation techniques was applied to unravel the petroleum generation and expulsion characteristics of P₁f source rocks in FA. Results show that the P₁f source rocks distribute widely (up to 2039 km²), are thick (up to 260 m), have high total organic content (TOC, ranging from 0.15 to 4 wt%), are dominated by type II kerogen and have entered into low mature–mature stage. The modeling results indicate that the source rocks reached hydrocarbon generation threshold and hydrocarbon expulsion threshold at 0.5% Ro and 0.85% Ro and the comprehensive hydrocarbon expulsion efficiency was about 46%. The amount of generation and expulsion from the P₁f source rocks was 31.85 × 10⁸ and 15.31 × 10⁸ t, respectively, with a residual amount of 16.54 × 10⁸ t within the source rocks. Volumetrically, the geological resource of shale oil is up to 15.65 × 10⁸ t. Small differences between the amounts calculated by the volumetric method compared with that by hydrocarbon generation potential methodology may be due to other oil accumulations present within interbedded sands associated with the oil shales. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

未来的国际天球参考架

本文简述了国际天球参考架的发展历史和现在射电参考架的现状—基准源选择的标准和参考架的稳定性。描述了地面上光学观测在依巴谷参考架的维持和加密的一系列工作。介绍由天体测量卫星GAIA和SIM给出的天球参考架可能逵到的精度。详述了在今后十年中地面天体测量的作用以及正在开展有关天球参考架的研究课题 ,同时也列出了我国正在和即将开展天体测量的几个研究课题     

Simulations of strong ground motion in SW Iberia for the 1969 February 28 (Ms= 8.0) and the 1755 November 1 (M∼ 8.5) earthquakes – II. Strong ground motion simulations

This is the second paper of a series of two concerning strong ground motion in SW Iberia due to earthquakes originating from the adjacent Atlantic area. The aim of this paper is to use the velocity model that was proposed and validated in the companion paper for seismic intensity modelling of the 1969 ( M _s= 8.0) and 1755 ( M = 8.5–8.7) earthquakes.
First, we propose a regression to convert simulated values of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) into Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) in SW Iberia, and using this regression, we build synthetic isoseismal maps for a large ( M _s= 8.0) earthquake that occurred in 1969. Based on information on the seismic source provided by various authors, we show that the velocity model effectively reproduces macroseismic observations in the whole region. We also confirm that seismic intensity distribution is very sensitive to a small number of source parameters: rupture directivity, fault strike and fault dimensions. Then, we extrapolate the method to the case of the great ( M = 8.5–8.7) 1755 earthquake, for a series of hypotheses recently proposed by three authors about the location of the epicentral region. The model involving a subduction-related rupture in the Gulf of Cádiz results in excessive ground motion in northern Morocco, suggesting that the source of the 1755 earthquake should be located further west. A rupture along the western coast of Portugal, compatible with an activation of the passive western Iberian margin, would imply a relatively low average slip, which, alone, would could not account for the large tsunami observed in the whole northern Atlantic ocean. A seismic source located below the Gorringe Bank seems the most likely since it is more efficient in reproducing the distribution of high intensities in SW Iberia due to the 1755 earthquake.     

MORPHOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF KARST DEPRESSIONS ON A MEDITERRANEAN KARST MASSIF

Dolines are the most typical landform in karst landscapes. They play an important role in karst hydrogeology; they are effective sediment traps that provide information about past climates and karst evolution, and can also be indicators of tectonic activity. The morphometic analysis of those depressions can help in their study and interpretation. However, detailed identification and delineation of dolines becomes increasingly difficult when the study area is very large, of limited access or covered by vegetation. Here, we have used a method developed by the authors for automatic identification and delineation of karst depressions based on the use of a pit removal algorithm. Next a complete morphometric analysis of the karst depressions has been carried out. The main advantage of the methodology is that by delineating and identifying the depth of each doline from its rim, many morphometric statistics can be obtained, including the relation of doline depth and area with respect to altitude, the main doline orientations, doline density, the fractal dimension of doline area and frequency, and point field analysis, among others. The results are interpreted from a geomorphological point of view and the mapped dolines can be easily integrated into geomorphological mapping. A case study is presented from the large Sierra Gorda karst massif in southern Spain, where 3100 depressions have been identified. A strong structural control of doline shape and orientation is demonstrated; the main areas of doline density are highlighted and doline size is shown to follow a fractal law.     

Uncertainty assessment of ephemeral gully identification,characteristics and topographic threshold when using aerial photographs in agricultural settings

Manual digitizing on aerial photographs is still commonly used for characterizing gully erosion over large areas. Even when automated detection procedures are implemented, manual digitizing is frequently being resorted to in order to constitute reference datasets used for training and validation. In both cases, manual digitizing entails some subjective decisions on behalf of the operator, which introduces uncertainty into the resulting datasets. To assess the magnitude of this uncertainty, 11 experienced operators were asked to digitize and classify ephemeral gullies (EGs) on cropland following a standardized methodology. The resulting 11 datasets were compared in terms of number, type and location of EGs. Furthermore, for EGs located on a well‐defined runoff flow concentration axis, the slope versus contributing area topographic thresholds required for initiating gully channels were assessed using four thresholding methods, and compared across the 11 datasets. The operators identified 259 different EGs. However, the number (52–139) and sum total length (8.9–23.7 km) of EGs varied widely across operators. Only 34% of the EGs were digitized by more than half of the operators, and 7% were identified by all. Identification of EGs located on a well‐defined flow concentration axis proved least subjective. The longer the EG and the more fields the EG crossed, the larger the number of operators that were able to identify it. EGs were also most easily identified when located in sugar beet fields as compared to other crops. EG classification and topographic threshold lines were also found to be strongly operator‐dependent. Quantile regression appeared to be one of the most robust thresholding methods. Operator subjectivity when digitizing EGs on orthophotographs introduces uncertainty that should be taken into account in future remote sensing‐based studies of EG erosion whenever they rely, in part or in full, on manual photograph interpretation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extracting flow structures from tracer data

A method of visualizing structures in closed chaotic flows out of homogenous particle distributions is presented in the example of models of a meandering jet. To this end, the system will be leaked or opened up by defining a region of the flow, so that a particle is considered to be escaped if it leaves this region. By applying this method to an ensemble of nonescaped tracers, we are able to characterize mixing processes by visualizing the converging and stretching filamentations (stable and unstable manifolds) in the flow without using additional mathematical tools. The possibility of applying the algorithm to analyze buoy data, and a comparison with the finite time manifolds are discussed.     

An improved earthquake catalogue (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> ≥ 4.0) for Turkey and its near vicinity (1900–2012)

Many catalogues, agency reports and research articles have been published on seismicity of Turkey and its surrounding since 1950s. Given existing magnitude heterogeneity, erroneous information on epicentral location, event date and time, this past published data however is far from fulfilling the required standards. Paucity of a standardized format in the available catalogues have reinforced the need for a refined and updated catalogue for earthquake related hazard and risk studies. During this study, ~37,000 earthquakes and related parametric data were evaluated by utilizing more than 41 published studies and, an integrated database was prepared in order to analyse all parameters acquired from the catalogues and references for each event. Within the scope of this study, the epicentral locations of M ≥ 5.0 events were firstly reappraised based on the updated Active Fault Map of Turkey. An improved catalogue of 12.674 events for the period 1900–2012 was as a result recompiled for the region between 32–45N° and 23–48E° by analyzing in detail accuracy of all seismological parameters available for each event. The events consist of M ≥ 4.0 are reported in several magnitude scales (e.g. moment magnitude, M_w; surface wave magnitude, M_S; body-wave magnitude m_b; local magnitude M_L and duration magnitude M_d) whereas the maximum focal depth reaches up to 225-km. In order to provide homogenous data, the improved catalogue is unified in terms of M_w. Fore-and aftershocks were also removed from the catalogue and completeness analyses were performed both separately for various tectonic sources and as a whole for the study region of interest. Thus, the prepared homogenous and declustered catalogue consisting of 6573 events provides the basis for a reliable input to the seismic hazard assessment studies for Turkey and its surrounding areas.