Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.     

Variation and pattern in the responses of mammal faunas to Late Pleistocene climatic change in southeastern South Australia

We examined mammal occurrence and variability through the Late Pleistocene vertebrate fossil deposit of Grant Hall in Victoria Fossil Cave, Naracoorte, South Australia. To determine long‐term patterns of change, we compared the composition and relative abundance trends of the assemblage with a nearby Middle Pleistocene deposit in Cathedral Cave. Total species richness did not change through the Grant Hall sequence, dated from 93 ± 8 to 70 ± 5 ka. However, species relative abundances varied between ecologically divergent species, and in some cases between species that demonstrate similar environmental preferences. For some species this variation is comparable to that recorded in Cathedral Cave. Of those showing similar trends between the two deposits, the forest inhabitant, Pseudomys fumeus, recorded an 8.6% decline through Grant Hall, coincident with a 9.7% increase in the dry heath/mallee dweller Pseudomys apodemoides. These patterns indicate that climatic transition from relatively warm, moist to cooler, drier conditions impacted some species in similar ways through climatic cycles of the past. However, the majority of the fauna demonstrated complex responses that are individual and variable through time. Statistical tests of species trends from the Grant Hall assemblage caution that large fossil samples are required to validate patterns observed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Clear sky ultraviolet-B radiation in the English Midlands: A comparison of measured and modelled values

Summary Spectral measurements were made of solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) irradiance at Sutton Bonington (52° 50N, 1° 15W) under cloudless skies using a Licor LI 1800 scanning spectroradiometer. The finite bandpass of the instrument and the steep shape of the UVB spectra caused overestimation of irradiance at short wavelengths. Spectra were corrected mathematically for these effects.The corrected spectra were compared to estimates of global UVB irradiance as a function of zenith angle and amount of ozone. Comparisons were made at 300 nm, 310 nm and 320 nm. Estimates were significantly greater (p = 0.05) than the measurements except at 320 nm where differences were not significant. The differences may have been the result of overestimation of UVB at short wavelengths, since some of the assumptions on which the estimates were based may not be valid for Sutton Bonington conditions.

---

Zusammenfassung Unter wolkenlosem Himmel wurden in Sutton Bonington (52° 50N, 1° 15W) mittels eines Licor LI 1800 Spektroradiometer-Scanners Spektralmessungen von Ultraviolett-B (UVB)-Strahlung durchgeführt. Die endliche Bandbreite des Instruments und der steile Anstieg der UVB-Spektren führten zu einer Überschätzung der Strahlung im kurzwelligen Bereich. Die Spektren wurden in dieser Hinsicht mathematisch korrigiert.Die korrigierten Spektren wurden mit den Schätzwerten der globalen UVB-Strahlung — als Funktion von Zenithwinkel und Ozonmenge — bei 300nm, 310nm und 320nm verglichen. Hiebei erwiesen sich die Schätzwerte wesentlich höher (p = 0,05) als die Meßwerte, nur bei 320nm waren die Unterschiede nicht signifikant. Die Unterschiede könnten aus der Überschätzung von UVB im kurzwelligen Bereich resultieren, da einige der Schätzungsvoraussetzungen auf die Bedingungen in Sutton Bonington nicht zutreffen dürften.

---

---

On leave from Department of Agronomy and Soils, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, U.S.A.

---

With 4 Figures     

Experimental Researches on Hydro-Mechanical Properties of Altered Rock Under Confining Pressures

Altered rock, as the abutment materials of Xiaowan Hydropower Station in China, is a kind of geological defective rock mass. It is loosely structured and its strength is low, with some development of pores and cavities. Research on the hydro-mechanical coupling of the altered rock are of important significance to hydropower projects. In this study, the advanced fully automatic triaxial fluid flow-rheological test servo system is employed to study the hydro-mechanical coupling characteristics of the altered rock, and the water pressures and confining pressures in the laboratory tests are set to simulate the conditions of excavation and impoundment of Xiaowan Hydropower Station. Based on the test results, the stress–strain laws of the rock specimens under the effect of complete hydro-mechanical coupling, as well as the lateral strain and volumetric strain characteristics, are studied. The fluid flow laws of the rock specimens and the effects of the confining pressures on the fluid flow are analyzed. The fluid flow failure characteristic under the effect of the complete hydro-mechanical coupling is discussed. The research achievements show that with the change of the stress states, the permeability of the rock also changes, and the permeability evolution shows the phase characteristic during the process of stress and strain. The impacts of the confining pressures on the strength and deformation and permeability of the altered rock are obvious. The failure behaviours of the rock specimens under the effect of coupling relates to the confining pressures, including two kinds of splitting failure and shear failure. The fluid flow failure characteristic of the rock specimens depend upon the initiation, growth and coalesce of micro-cracks, heterogeneity, confining pressures and properties of the rock.     

Isotope variations in a Sierra Nevada snowpack and their relation to meltwater

Isotopic variations in melting snow are poorly understood. We made weekly measurements at the Central Sierra Snow Laboratory, California, of snow temperature, density, water equivalent and liquid water volume to examine how physical changes within the snowpack govern meltwater δ¹⁸O. Snowpack samples were extracted at 0.1 m intervals from ground level to the top of the snowpack profile between December 1991 and April 1992. Approximately 800 mm of precipitation fell during the study period with δ¹⁸O values between −21.35 and −4.25‰. Corresponding snowpack δ¹⁸O ranged from −22.25 to −6.25‰. The coefficient of variation of δ¹⁸O in snowpack levels decreased from −0.37 to −0.07 from winter to spring, indicating isotopic snowpack homogenization. Meltwater δ¹⁸O ranged from −15.30 to −8.05‰, with variations of up to 2.95‰ observed within a single snowmelt episode, highlighting the need for frequent sampling. Early snowmelt originated in the lower snowpack with higher δ¹⁸O through ground heat flux and rainfall. After the snowpack became isothermal, infiltrating snowmelt displaced the higher δ¹⁸O liquid in the lower snowpack through a piston flow process. Fractionation analysis using a two-component mixing model on the isothermal snowpack indicated that δ¹⁸O in the initial and final half of major snowmelt was 1.30‰ lower and 1.45‰ higher, respectively, than the value from simple mixing. Mean snowpack δ¹⁸O on individual profiling days showed a steady increase from −15.15 to −12.05‰ due to removal of lower δ¹⁸O snowmelt and addition of higher δ¹⁸O rainfall. Results suggest that direct sampling of snowmelt and snow cores should be undertaken to quantify tracer input compositions adequately. The snowmelt sequence also suggests that regimes of early lower δ¹⁸O and later higher δ¹⁸O melt may be modeled and used in catchment tracing studies.     

Late Devensian environments in the Vale of Mowbray, North Yorkshire, UK: evidence from palynology

Two radiocarbon-dated Lateglacial pollen diagrams from the Vale of Mowbray (northern Vale of York) are presented from sites in the lowlands between the washlands courses of the rivers Swale and Ure in North Yorkshire, an area with little previous palynological research despite its proximity to the Devensian glacial advance limits in eastern England. The profiles, from Snape Mires and Nosterfield, include the Loch Lomond Stadial (Younger Dryas) and the Holocene transition, while that from Snape Mires also includes the period from the early part of the Lateglacial Interstadial. This profile differs from most published Interstadial diagrams from the Yorkshire region in having a long-delayed expansion of tree and shrub taxa. Juniperus (juniper) remains important after vegetation development takes place and the pollen record includes evidence of two cold climate oscillations before the maximum development of Betula (birch) woodland near the end of the Lateglacial Interstadial. At both profiles Artemisia (mugwort) frequencies are lower during the Loch Lomond Stadial than at many regional sites, probably due to edaphic factors in these lowland locations. The two sites provide valuable environmental data that enable comparison between the more wooded Lateglacial vegetation to the south in the Vale of York and Humberside and the more open contemporaneous vegetation to the north in the Durham and Northumberland lowlands.     

中国当代土地利用对区域气候影响的数值模拟

使用RegCM3区域气候模式，嵌套欧洲数值预报中心(ECMWF)ERA40再分析资料，分别进行了中国区域在实际植被和理想植被分布情况下各15年时间长度（1987-2001）的积分试验，以研究我国土地利用状况对气候的影响。通过两个试验结果的对比，研究了我国土地利用状况对气候的影响。分析主要集中于气温、降水等的变化上，并对结果进行了统计显著性检验。结果表明，当代土地利用/植被覆盖变化加强了中国地区冬、夏季的季风环流，同时改变了地表能量平衡状况，从而对各气候要素产生重要影响。冬季，植被改变引起长江以南降水减少、气温降低，长江以北降水增加。夏季，植被改变显著影响了南方地区的气候，使得这里降水增多，黄淮、江淮气温降低，华南气温上升；同时引起中国北方降水减少，气温在西北部分植被退化地区升高。植被变化对日最低、最高气温的影响更大。总体来说，土地利用引起了年平均降水在南方增加、北方减少，年平均气温在南方显著降低。     

A review of the numerical modelling of salt mobilization from groundwater-surface water interactions

Salinization of land and water is a significant challenge in most continents and particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. The need to accurately forecast surface and groundwater interactions has promoted the use of physically-based numerical modelling approaches in many studies. In this regard, two issues can be considered as the main research challenges. First, in contrast with surface water, there is generally less observed level and salinity data available for groundwater systems. These data are critical in the validation and verification of numerical models. The second challenge is to develop an integrated surface-groundwater numerical model that is capable of salt mobilization modelling but which can be validated and verified against accurate observed data. This paper reviews the current state of understanding of groundwater and surface water interactions with particular respect to the numerical modelling of salt mobilization. 3D physically-based fully coupled surface-subsurface numerical model with the capability of modelling density-dependent, saturated-unsaturated solute transport is an ideal tool for groundwater-surface water interaction studies. It is concluded that there is a clear need to develop modelling capabilities for the movement of salt to, from, and within wetlands to provide temporal predictions of wetland salinity which can be used to assess ecosystem outcomes.     

Derivation of a curve number and kinematic-wave based flood frequency distribution

Abstract

The physically-based flood frequency models use readily available rainfall data and catchment characteristics to derive the flood frequency distribution. In the present study, a new physically-based flood frequency distribution has been developed. This model uses bivariate exponential distribution for rainfall intensity and duration, and the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method for deriving the probability density function (pdf) of effective rainfall. The effective rainfall-runoff model is based on kinematic-wave theory. The results of application of this derived model to three Indian basins indicate that the model is a useful alternative for estimating flood flow quantiles at ungauged sites.     

Statistical properties of optical refractive index fluctuations in the marine boundary layer

The optical refractive index fluctuation has been determined from measurements of turbulent temperature and humidity fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer over the ocean. Probability density, spectral density and even- and odd-order structure functions of the refractive index fluctuation are presented. The spectral density exhibits a significant -5/3 inertial subrange as a result of the existence of a -5/3 subrange in the spectra of temperature and humidity fluctuations and in the temperature-humidity co-spectrum. The behaviour in the inertial subrange of fourth- and sixth-order structure functions of the refractive index is in reasonable agreement with that predicted by the analysis of Antonia and Van Atta (1975, 1978). The third-order structure functions of the refractive index exhibit an approximately linear dependence on separation in the inertial subrange, in agreement with a ramp model for the large coherent structure of the motion.