谈新形势下地勘单位改革发展的现状及未来发展方向

新中国成立以来,地勘单位先后在计划经济和市场经济下为国家的发展做出了重要贡献,也先后经历了初步探索、属地化管理、事企分体运行等不同阶段。十九大以来,随着事业单位改革的逐步深入,地勘单位改革迫在眉睫。为了更好的适应时代发展,又快又好地进行地勘单位转型,通过研究不同历史时期地勘单位发展的问题和困难,指出现阶段面临的主要问题是改革意愿不强烈、转型工勘领域受阻、资本占有率低和人才匮乏。以此为基础,提出转变思想、学习集团化企业路线、投身地方产业结构、全面提升自然资源意识、加强自身建设和长期持续稳定转型的发展建议,供转型发展的地勘单位参考。     

Machine learning for pore-water pressure time-series prediction: Application of recurrent neural networks

Knowledge of pore-water pressure(PWP)variation is fundamental for slope stability.A precise prediction of PWP is difficult due to complex physical mechanisms and in situ natural variability.To explore the applicability and advantages of recurrent neural networks(RNNs)on PWP prediction,three variants of RNNs,i.e.,standard RNN,long short-term memory(LSTM)and gated recurrent unit(GRU)are adopted and compared with a traditional static artificial neural network(ANN),i.e.,multi-layer perceptron(MLP).Measurements of rainfall and PWP of representative piezometers from a fully instrumented natural slope in Hong Kong are used to establish the prediction models.The coefficient of determination(R^2)and root mean square error(RMSE)are used for model evaluations.The influence of input time series length on the model performance is investigated.The results reveal that MLP can provide acceptable performance but is not robust.The uncertainty bounds of RMSE of the MLP model range from 0.24 kPa to 1.12 k Pa for the selected two piezometers.The standard RNN can perform better but the robustness is slightly affected when there are significant time lags between PWP changes and rainfall.The GRU and LSTM models can provide more precise and robust predictions than the standard RNN.The effects of the hidden layer structure and the dropout technique are investigated.The single-layer GRU is accurate enough for PWP prediction,whereas a double-layer GRU brings extra time cost with little accuracy improvement.The dropout technique is essential to overfitting prevention and improvement of accuracy.     

武夷山成矿带及邻区上地幔速度结构及其对燕山期岩浆-成矿活动的启示

武夷山成矿带燕山期岩浆-成矿活动的深部动力学机制一直是学者们研究的热点。已有的研究结果表明,武夷山成矿带及邻区的上地幔存在着显著的低速异常,可能与地表的岩浆-成矿活动存在着密切的联系。本研究利用分布在华夏地块98个固定地震台站以及59个流动地震台站所记录到的278个远震事件,采用远震层析成像方法构建了武夷山成矿带及邻区上地幔三维P波速度结构模型。成像结果表明,武夷山成矿带及其东侧的上地幔存在着显著的低速异常,代表了热物质富集的地幔楔,且上地幔的热物质在这些地幔楔间进行着横向流动。东南沿海的地幔过渡带存在着一个显著的低速异常,推测为新生代欧亚板块与菲律宾海板块碰撞俯冲的产物。南岭成矿带下方的低速异常从上地幔一直向上延伸到上地壳,可能指示了一个热物质上涌的通道。结合已有的研究结果,本研究认为武夷山成矿带燕山期岩浆-成矿活动可能与古太平洋板块的俯冲和后撤所引起的热物质上涌有关。

     

Thermal infrared anomalies as a precursor of strong earthquakes in the distant future

Satellite thermal infrared images contain valuable earthquake precursor information. Past studies concluded that such information appeared only a few days or dozens of days before an earthquake would occur. In our study, though, we observed that the time intervals between the thermal infrared precursor and an earthquake??s occurrence can be up to 10?years. An infrared image can also synchronously indicate the locations of additional future earthquakes with different epicenters within a region. The shape, area, intensity, and movement of thermal infrared anomaly areas are a combination of all the future strong earthquakes within a region. These distant future earthquakes are generally located near the edges, endpoints, or corners of the main structure, fine structures or periphery structures of a thermal infrared anomaly area and play a role in confining the anomaly area. There have not been any exceptions among the strong earthquakes we analyzed, which have included the 2011 Japan M _w 9 event, the 2010 Yushu M _S 7.1 event, the 2008 Wenchuan M _S 8 event, and many other strong events following the 2004 Sumatra M _S 9 event. Surprisingly, some of the earthquakes can outline an area of elevated temperature observed many months ago. If we can roughly locate these potential epicenters through the analysis of thermal infrared images and combining the analysis with other information, and then dynamically monitor them, it may be easier to observe the precursor of an earthquake and predict its occurrence.     

综合勘探在武汉军山长江大桥勘察中的应用

单一的勘探手段很难适应高速公路基本建设对勘察设计的高水平、高质量和高效率的要求。将钻探、地震勘探、重力勘探、磁法勘探、电视测井、声波测井等勘探手段综合运用于武汉军山大桥地质勘察中，不但精确探明了桥墩处地层岩性的风化程度，裂隙的位置、产状、规模，岩石完整性等，准确提供了岩石的力学参数，而且缩短了勘察周期，降低了成本。     

液体闪烁测量法测定土壤样品中的镭

本文介绍一种新的分析方法——壤中镭水浸泡液体闪烁测定法。将50克80目土样置于500毫升磨口玻璃瓶中,加水浸泡,用闪烁液萃取氡,以液体闪烁计数法积分计数。该法灵敏度高,当取样50克,计数100秒时镭含量探测极限为5×10~(-13)克/克。方法简单快速,(每人每天可完成40个样品),重现性好,(相对偏差均在20％以下),成本低廉,干扰少(能区分~(222)Rn和~(220)Rn),易于推广(不需复杂的仪器)。经野外试验得到较好的效果。     

The Fragmentation in a Protoplanetary Disk and the Properties of the Resultant Self-Gravitating Clumps

We study the fragmentation properties in the protoplanetary disk and properties of the resultant self-gravitating clumps using our newly constructed disk model. Our disk model includes the mass inflall term from a molecular cloud core and the photoevaporation winds effect. We adopt the conventional fragmentation criterion to judge whether a protoplanetary disk can fragment. In this work, we follow our previous work to investigate the properties of the resultant self-gravitating clumps. In our calculation, the initial masses of the resultant self-gravitating clumps lie in the range of tens of M_J to more than one hundred of M_J, where M_J is the Jupiter mass. These initial masses can seemingly account for the masses of extrasolar planets in magnitude. We also calculate the subsequent gas accretion of clumps in 1.27 × 10⁴ yr after the formation of self-gravitating clumps. We find that the subsequent gas accretion of self-gravitating clumps is very efficient, and the clump masses grow to hundreds of M_J and the physical radii R_c of clumps increase to about 10 AU. Additionally, we also calculate the orbital migration of clumps. We find that most clumps have short migration timescale to be accreted onto the protostar, and only a small fraction of clumps have long migration timescale (>10⁶ yr) to successfully become gas giant planets. These results are consistent with previous studies.     

The influence of the Three Gorges Reservoir regulation on a typical tributary heat budget

Reservoir regulation and local climate both affect the heat budget of tributary bay. It is difficult for traditional methods to identify the influence of different factors on heat budget quantitatively. In this paper, for analysis of the control mechanisms of the heat budget of a large reservoir tributary, the water temperature distribution, and heat budget processes of the Meixi River, a typical tributary to the Three Gorges Reservoir was measured, and a new method was used to calculate the heat content composition of the tributary bay and identify the key factor of the heat balance. The result shows significant variation in the spatial and temporal distributions of water temperatures in the Meixi River, ranging from 12.4 to 28.9 °C on the surface and 12.0 to 24.4 °C at the bottom. The total heat exchange across the air–water interface that ranges from 0.1 to 6% of the budget is not the primary control factor of the annual tributary heat budget. Rather, the change in water depth produced by regulation of the Three Gorges Reservoir is the primary control factor of the tributary heat budget in the whole year, which ranges from 72 to 99% of the budget. The water temperature difference between the main stream and tributary is the not key factor of the heat budget, which ranges from 0.1 to 28% of the heat budget.     

蚌埠隆起老山片麻状二长花岗岩的成岩与变质特征及其地质意义

蚌埠隆起是华北地块上中生代地质研究的一个十分难得的地质单元,它映现了中国东部最重要的两次构造运动(印支运动和燕山运动)所引起的岩浆作用和变质作用,其中,老山片麻状二长花岗岩就是一个代表性产物。该花岗岩的岩相学、地球化学以及锆石学的系统研究显示,它具有两个不同的岩石学特征:①它的斜长石斑晶的牌号(An_(14～18))、相对低硅高钙的主量元素、富Ba、Sr和贫Rb及无Eu负异常的微量元素等特征,以及它所含的岩浆锆石({211}锥面发育、较强的CL亮度及韵律环带构造、包含残核、正常的Hf含量)的U-Pb年龄(223.1 Ma)和ε_(Hf)(t)值(平均值为-14.2),表明它应该是印支运动的同造山花岗岩;②它的片麻状构造(斑晶矿物压扁拉长、各种交代—熔蚀结构)和变质结晶锆石({101}锥面发育、较弱的CL亮度、较高的Hf含量)的U-Pb年龄(156.2 Ma)和ε_(Hf)(t)值(平均值为-17.8),说明它在燕山运动中遭受了同造山变质作用。因此,老山片麻状二长花岗岩的存在,一方面使得大别造山带作为印支期陆陆碰撞造山带的岩石学记录完整,同时也制约了华南与华北两大板块之间碰撞挤压作用峰期的准确时间;另一方面,对燕山运动的起始时间(约170 Ma左右)和挤压高峰出现的时间(155±3 Ma)作出了合理的推断。这两方面的研究结果对于深入了解中国东部中生代的构造演化、岩石类型、成矿作用的现象及其机制具有深远的意义。