BP模型双样本训练方法

根据气象预报应用情况，分析ＢＰ模型训练人工神经元网络中存在的问题，并提出双样本训练方案。试验表明，采用双样本训练的网络，实际预报能力较高。     

Assessment of the Pacific decadal oscillation’s contribution to the occurrence of local torrential rainfall in north China

On 21–22 July 2012, torrential rains hit North China, with the daily precipitation record at Beijing station reaching 160.6 mm; this event is named the Beijing 7–21 case. This paper assesses the likelihood of the occurrence of local torrential rains, such as the Beijing 7–21 case, from the perspective of climate variability. In particular, the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is assessed. There were five extreme events, with daily precipitation records equal to or larger than 160.6 mm, at Beijing station during the period 1951–2012; all of these events happened during negative phases of the PDO. The present analysis indicates that precipitation events more extreme than the Beijing 7–21 case should happen more than once per decade during negative phases of the PDO, but only about once every four decades during positive PDO phases. The negative phase of the PDO is found to be associated with a much greater probability of daily records of southerly winds in North China during summer. Strong southerly summer monsoons are deemed favorable for increasing the occurrence of local extreme rainfall over North China.     

Is there a stratospheric radiative feedback in global warming simulations?

The radiative impacts of the stratosphere in global warming simulations are investigated using abrupt CO₂ quadrupling experiments of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), with a focus on stratospheric temperature and water vapor. It is found that the stratospheric temperature change has a robust bullhorn-like zonal-mean pattern due to a strengthening of the stratospheric overturning circulation. This temperature change modifies the zonal mean top-of-the-atmosphere energy balance, but the compensation of the regional effects leads to an insignificant global-mean radiative feedback (?0.02 ± 0.04 W m^?2 K^?1). The stratospheric water vapor concentration generally increases, which leads to a weak positive global-mean radiative feedback (0.02 ± 0.01 W m^?2 K^?1). The stratospheric moistening is related to mixing of elevated upper-tropospheric humidity, and, to a lesser extent, to change in tropical tropopause temperature. Our results indicate that the strength of the stratospheric water vapor feedback is noticeably larger in high-top models than in low-top ones. The results here indicate that although its radiative impact as a forcing adjustment is significant, the stratosphere makes a minor contribution to the overall climate feedback in CMIP5 models.     

不同气候情景下华北平原蒸发与径流时空变化分析

基于中国气象局国家气候中心生成的IPCC第四次评估报告中23种气候模式的情景集成数据,采用Schreiber公式和Thornthwaite方法计算实际蒸发和径流,分析了2001-2060年SRES A1B、A2和 B1这3种情景下,华北平原气温、降水、蒸发与径流的时空变化。结果表明：未来华北平原气温呈升高趋势,且冬半年升温幅度大于夏半年;降水亦呈增加趋势,而冬半年降水增加幅度小于夏半年;与此相应,华北平原蒸发和年径流呈增加趋势,增幅和空间差异随时间推移而增大,到2041-2060年蒸发将上升7.1%～9.4%,径流将增加8.7%～10.7%。     

西北太平洋热带气旋频数的年际、年代际变化及预测

利用1950-2009年60 a的热带气旋资料、NOAA海温、NCEP再分析资料及74项环流指数等资料,研究了西北太平洋热带气旋频数的年际、年代际变化特征,结果表明,西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数既有显著的年际变化,同时也存在明显的年代际变化。自1950年以来,西北太平洋热带气旋频数经历了一个先增加再减少的过程,其中转折点在20世纪70年代中后期,与之相对应,热带气旋路径频数也呈现明显年代际变化。在此基础上,通过分析前期春季海温场、大气环流异常及环流指数与夏季(6-10月)热带气旋生成频数的相关关系,选取了影响夏季西北太平洋热带气旋活动频数的预测因子,建立了一个夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的多元回归预测模型。检验结果表明,该模型能较好地拟合1951-2003年夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的年际变化,拟合率为0.6。对2004-2009年夏季热带气旋生成频数的独立样本预测试验表明,该模型对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋活动频数具有较好的预测能力,可以为热带气旋业务预报提供一定参考。     

基于SHAP值机器学习的江西暖季暴雨预报因子重要性分析

机器学习模型（Machine Learning,ML）的不可解释性给其在气象业务中的应用带来了挑战。模型解释和可视化是解决这一问题的有效途径。文中将SHAP值应用于天气预报ML模型解释,研究了江西省暖季暴雨模型的预报因子对预报结果的影响。分别选取2016—2020年、2021—2022年4—9月ECWMF（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts）高分辨率数值模式物理量及国家站降水观测数据进行XGBoost 建模与模型解释。结果表明,全局重要性排名前4位依次是总降水（重要性42.70%）、850 hPa比湿（重要性11.17%）、925 hPa相对湿度（重要性10.44%）、500 hPa相对湿度（重要性 9.16%）。个例分析表明,命中个例中高重要性物理因子在暴雨区的 SHAP 值较大,漏报（空报）个例在漏报（空报）区域高重要性物理因子的SHAP值偏小（偏大）。SHAP值从全局和局部可定量给出ML模型有物理意义的解释,解释结果与天气学原理和业务经验较一致,有利于ML在气象业务中的深入应用。     

无控制点条件下SPOT5卫星影像海上目标定位技术

对于海上目标的遥感影像定位,由于控制点获取的困难性严重影响了其发展与应用。研究了SPOT5卫星HRS立体像对的成像原理,通过一系列坐标系变换,构建了一种无需地面控制点的直接对地绝对定位模型。试验表明,在没有控制点的条件下利用SPOT5遥感影像进行定位,平面定位精度和高程定位精度均可以达到优于70m的水平,这对于海上目标定位具有很好的实用价值。     

基于组构组分的变质岩岩相学分类

为建立一个较严密、系统的常见变质岩石的岩相学分类,采用既反映岩石结构构造特征又蕴含岩石基本组成的变质岩组构组分作为岩石分类的一级分类指标,以岩石结构、构造和组构组分的成分依次作为二、三和四级指标,划分了归属于造山区域变质岩、接触热变质岩、断层动力变质岩、蚀变交代变质岩和混合岩这5个大类变质成因的基本岩石.如岩石的地质产状已知,可用对应于地质产状的成因类型变质岩替换组构组分,升级为一级分类指标,然后用同样程序进行划分.本分类方案中,造山区域变质岩与接触热变质岩因具有相同组构组分,因此,大部分基本岩石名称相同,但可借助其地质产状和一些特征变质矿物的特殊显微构造的有无将它们区分开来.本分类方案的分类效果优于国内外现有的岩相学分类方案.     

Highly efficient iterative methods for solving linear equations of three-dimensional sphere discontinuous deformation analysis

The efficiency of solving equations plays an important role in implicit-scheme discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA). A systematic investigation of six iterative methods, namely, symmetric successive over relaxation (SSOR), Jacobi (J), conjugate gradient (CG), and three preconditioned CG methods (ie, J-PCG, block J-PCG [BJ-PCG], and SSOR-PCG), for solving equations in three-dimensional sphere DDA (SDDA) is conducted in this paper. Firstly, simultaneous equations of the SDDA and iterative formats of the six solvers are presented. Secondly, serial and OpenMP-based parallel computing numerical tests are done on a 16-core PC, the result of which shows that (a) for serial computing, the efficiency of the solvers is in this order: SSOR-PCG > BJ-PCG > J-PCG > SSOR>J > CG, while for parallel computing, BJ-PCG is the best solver; and (b) CG is not only the most sensitive to the ill-condition of the equations but also the most time consuming under both serial and parallel computing. Thirdly, to estimate the effects of equation solvers acting on SDDA computations, an application example with 10 000 spheres and 200 000 calculation steps is simulated on this 16-core PC using serial and parallel computing. The result shows that SSOR-PCG is about six times faster than CG for serial computing, while BJ-PCG is about four times faster than CG for parallel computing. On the other hand, the whole computation time using BJ-PCG for parallel computing is 3.37 hours (ie, 0.061 s per step), which is about 36 times faster than CG for serial computing. Finally, some suggestions are given based on this investigation result.     

A preliminary study of tidal current ridges

Tidal current ridges, widely distributed geomorphological phenomena over the continental shelf of the world, are studied. They are formed by tidal current and the trend of their sand bodies runs parallel to the direction of tidal current. There are two types of the plane shapes: the parallel and the fingered. Conditions of forming tidal current ridges are the velocities of tidal current ranging from 1 to 3.5 knots and the supply of abundant sediments. Tidal current ridges often develop in following morphological locations: the bays, estuaries, the mouths of channels, as well as the offshore area with strong tidal current. Tidal current ridges occur generally at a water depth of less than 35 metres. The sediments of tidal current ridges are mainly composed of sand. The grain size of the sediments is uniform and well sorted. The characteristics of grain size of the sand imply that their formation mechanism is similar to that of river sand, that is, both of them are the result of flow movements in a trongth channel controlled by boundary. There is however difference between them that the river sand is formed by one-way flow movement while the tidal current sand by two-way movement. There are two saltation populations in the log-probability curves of tidal current sand, the sorting of first saltation population is better than the second one, and having positive skewness, which differs from beach sand. In the C-M grain size pattern tidal current sand is most found in graded suspension segment. The continental shelves of the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea have favourable conditions for developing tidal current ridges in massive scale and special shape, such as the tidal current ridges in the offshore of Jiangsu, the Gulf of Korea, the shoal of Liaodong, the east and west mouths of the channel of Qiongzhou, Jiaozhou Bay, the shoal of Taiwan, Lingdingyang, the north branch of Changjiang estuary. The studies of them are of vital significance in shipping, fishing, submarine engineering, military installations, oil and gas explorations, as well as in scientific research. This paper was published in Chinese inOceanologia et Limnologia Sinica 14 (3): 286–296.