滇西南地震活动特征分析

对滇西南1970年以来所有M≥4.6级地震前的空间活动图像进行研究,用地震频度作为参数描述地震前区域的地震活动增强与平静现象,用空区、条带描述地震的孕震过程,得到以下认识:①地震频度增加是滇西南地区5级以上地震前的共性特征;②滇西南地区M≥4.6级地震前出现空区的比例随着地震震级的增加而有所增加,4.6~4.9级地震前只有60%的地震出现空区,5.0~5.9级地震前有90.9%的地震出现空区,而6.0级以上地震前全部出现空区;③空区平均持续时间也随着震级的加大而增加,空区平均持续时间为13.58个月,最短为3个月,最长为37个月;④主震位置(27/33)多发生在空区边缘(含长轴端12次、短轴端8次)。震前出现条带的规律则不明显。     

小波分析在前兆资料处理中的应用

利用小波变换分析了河南省2003~2007年地磁、地电、地下流体以及2004~2008年断层气CO2等前兆资料,并将断层气CO2的分析结果与河南省4级以上地震进行了震例研究。结果表明,小波分析方法对不同频率的信息识别功能较强,有助于将数据的趋势变化和局部变化分离,是地震前兆数据处理的一种有效方法;断层气CO2的震例研究表明,在豫北地区4级以上地震前1~6个月,断层气CO2会出现高值突跳异常。     

环境外部性与污染企业城市内空间分布特征——基于深圳污染企业的实证分析

随着城市生态环境的恶化,发达地区环境管理力度不断加强,使得污染企业的空间分布表现出强烈的环境容量制约性和政府规制主导性。为应对这种制约与规制,在城市内部,污染企业向城市边界和环境准入门槛低的区域迁移,使得污染企业空间分布及其所形成的城市污染格局更加复杂。利用2007 年深圳市污染源普查数据,通过OLS和稳健回归分别探讨了废水、废气和固体废弃物污染企业环境外部性及其城市内空间分布特征。研究发现：深圳废水与固体废弃物污染严重企业具有明显地靠近城市外围边界但远离香港、经济特区分布的特征,以邻为壑的污染转嫁将辖区内的环境负外部性扩展到邻近城市,以避免对本城区的污染。同时,废水排放较多的污染企业也有明显的靠近城市环境功能较低的外流河分布的特征。企业所有制性质、经营时间等在一定程度上影响企业的排污能力,进而影响污染企业的空间分布。另外,不同排污类型的企业空间分布也具有显著的差异。本研究对于转型期正确制定城市产业结构空间调整政策,合理引导经济环境协调发展,尤其是避免跨界流域河道等成为转移负外部性的通道具有重要启示。     

The GRAPES Variational Bias Correction Scheme and Associated Preliminary Experiments

The variational assimilation theory is generally based on unbiased observations. In practice, however, almost all observations suffer from biases arising from observational instruments, radiative transfer operator, precondition of data, and so on. Therefore, a bias correction scheme is indispensable. The current scheme for radiance bias correction in the GRAPES 3DVar system is an offline scheme. It is actually a static correction for the radiance bias before the process of cost function minimization. In consideration of its effects on forecast results, this kind of scheme has some shortcomings. Thus, this study provides a variational bias correction (VarBC) scheme for the GRAPES 3DVar system following Dee’s idea. In the VarBC scheme, the observation operator is modified and a new control variable is defined by taking the predictor coefficients as the control parameters. According to the feature of the GRAPES-3DVAR, an incremental formulation is applied and the original bias correction scheme is maintained in the actual process of observations. The VarBC is designed to co-exist with the original scheme, because it is a dynamic revision to the observational operator on the basis of the old method, i.e., it adjusts the model state vector along with the control parameters to an unbiased state in the process of minimization and the assimilation system remains consistent with available information automatically. Preliminary experimental results show that the mean departures of background-minus-observation and analysis-minus-observation are reduced as expected. In a case study of the heavy rainfall that happened in South China on 11–13 June 2008, the 500-hPa geopotential height is better simulated using the analyzed field from the VarBC as the initial condition.     

太阳微波低频段射电III型爆发的一些特性分析

本文介绍了云南天文台四波段（１．４２,２．１３,２．８４和４．２６ＧＨｚ）太阳射电高时间分辩率同步观测得到的五个微波ＩＩ型爆发事件,它们具有宽频带、长和短寿命、内向和外向快速频漂等特征．观测事例表明,非热电子束引起的等离子体辐射和电子回旋脉泽辐射两种机制都可能发生．这些观测特征既不完全同于米波—分米波ＩＩ型爆发,也不完全同于微波高频段ＩＩ型爆发,说明在微波低频段可能存在二重性或过渡现象     

A new soil freeze/thaw discriminant algorithm using AMSR‐E passive microwave imagery

The soil freeze–thaw controls the hydrological and carbon cycling and thus affects water and energy exchanges at land surface. This article reported a newly developed algorithm for distinguishing the freeze/thaw status of surface soil. The algorithm was based on information from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Enhanced (AMSR‐E) which records brightness temperature (Tb) in the afternoon and after midnight. The criteria and discriminant functions were obtained from both radiometer observations and model simulations. First of all, the microwave radiation from freeze–thaw soil was examined by carrying out experimental measurements at 18·7 and 36·5 GHz using a Truck‐mounted Multi‐frequency Microwave Radiometer (TMMR) in the Heihe River of China. The experimental results showed that the soil moisture is a key component that differentiates the microwave radiation behaviours during the freeze–thaw process, and the differences in soil temperature and emissivity between frozen and thawed soils were found to be the most important criteria. Secondly, a combined model was developed to consider the impacts of complex ground surface conditions on the discrimination. The model simulations quite followed the trend of in situ observations with an overall relation coefficient (R) of approximately 0·88. Finally, the ratio of Tb18·7H (horizontally polarized Tb at 18·7 GHz) to Tb36·5V was considered primarily as the quasi‐emissivity, which is more reasonable and explicit in measuring the microwave radiation changes in soil freezing and thawing than the spectral gradient. By combining Tb36·5V to indicate the soil temperature variety, a Fisher linear discrimination analysis was used to establish the discriminant functions. After being corrected by TMMR measurements, the new discriminant algorithm had an overall accuracy of 86% when validated by 4‐cm soil temperature. The multi‐year discriminant results also provided a good agreement with the classification map of frozen ground in China. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

塔河油田3区石炭系超深薄层碎屑岩储层预测研究

针对塔河油田3区石炭系卡拉沙依组地震数据很难识别薄砂体的问题,对比分析了采用地震资料提频处理、分频处理、储层高分辨率敏感参数反演等不同手段得到的储层预测结果,筛选出高分辨率储层敏感参数反演作为卡拉沙依组砂泥岩段储层主要预测手段。通过探讨砂泥岩对声波时差的响应,以及对比分析自然电位、自然伽马以及补偿中子孔隙度与声波时差的关系,确定自然电位与声波时差的相关性最好,由此选取自然电位作为最佳电性敏感参数参与高分辨率敏感参数反演预测。从井点、剖面、平面等方面检验和评价高分辨率储层预测成果,结果表明其反演预测效果较好,符合塔河油田3区石炭系的储层预测要求,实现了对石炭系主力砂体空间展布的解释与描述,建立了塔河油田3区石炭系卡拉沙依组储层模型。     

吉黑东部斑岩型－浅成热液型铜金矿床多重成矿模型

通过四个典型矿床（小西南岔、闹枝、五凤和刺猬沟）的对比，发现它们在形成时间－空间－成因上既相互联系，又相互区别。小西南岔和闹枝矿床存在三个成矿流体系统：加热天水系统（Ａ）、排放流体系统（Ｂ）、蒸气缕（ｓｔｅａｍｐｌｕｍｅ）反应系统（Ｃ）；五凤和刺猬沟矿床只有一个成矿流体系统，即排放流体系统（Ｂ）。前者的成矿流体由浅成岩浆房的补给；后者的成矿流体主要为循环天水，浅成岩浆房的补给不明显。小西南岔金铜矿床产于中生代火山岩盆地边缘的隆起带，属于斑岩型矿床；闹枝金（铜）矿床产于中生代火山岩盆地内的断隆块，属于斑岩－浅成热液过渡型矿床；五凤和刺猬沟金（银）矿床产于中生代火山岩盆地内断裂带，属于浅成熟液型矿床。在区域成矿上，由浅入深，浅成热液型斑岩－浅成热液过渡型和斑岩型构成多重成矿模型。     

基于定向片模型的SPOT-5遥感影像自检校光束法平差

本文通过建立内方位自检校模型,利用定向片模型对外方位元素进行内插建模,建立了基于定向片模型的自检校光束法平差,研究不同控制点数量和不同定向片间隔对定位精度的影响,并利用河南嵩山地区SPOT-5遥感影像数据对模型进行了实验验证和分析,结果表明,平面精度可以达到10.06m,高程精度可以达到8.84m.     

新石器时代晚期凉山地区粟黍农业初探——来自河东田、河头地遗址先民骨骼生物磷灰石的稳定同位素证据

中国西南地区是新石器时代粟黍向外传播、发展的重要交流通道,然而该区域粟黍南传的具体过程和路线尚不明确。鉴于此,本研究对四川凉山地区河东田遗址（26°10'7.78″N,102°6'51.83″E）和河头地遗址（26°10'25.20″N,102°6'54.84″E）先民骨骼生物磷灰石进行了碳、氧稳定同位素分析,以探讨凉山地区先民的生存策略以及粟黍在该地区的传播。河东田遗址和河头地遗址共获取了6例人骨生物磷灰石的有效数据,其δ¹³C均值分别为-5.5‰±1.8‰（n=4）,-5.5‰（n=2,-6.9‰和-4.0‰）,结果显示该区域人群的饮食呈现为兼具C₃和C₄类食物的混合食物结构,且粟黍等C₄类食物在本地区先民的食物结构中具有重要的贡献;河东田遗址和河头地遗址先民的δ¹⁸O均值分别为-12.3‰±0.4‰（n=4）,-12.0‰（n=2,-12.0‰和-11.9‰）,显示两处遗址先民摄入的水分来源相对一致,当时的先民可能是在本地生活,围绕城河定居。在此基础上,结合中国西南地区同时期稳定同位素数据和其他考古研究发现新石器时代晚期凉山地区的粟作农业应当是当地自然环境和考古学文化互动双重影响的结果,粟黍可能传播至凉山地区后继续南传至云南乃至东南亚地区。