Cokriging nonstationary data

Universal cokriging is used to obtain predictions when dealing with multivariate random functions. An important type of nonstationarity is defined in terms of multivariate random functions with increments which are stationary of orderk. The covariance between increments of different variables is modeled by means of the pseudo-cross-covariance function. Criteria are formulated to which the parameters of pseudo-cross-covariance functions must comply so as to ensure positive-definiteness. Cokriging equations and the induced cokriging equations are given. The study is illustrated by an example from soil science.     

GPS for real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems

We identify the key design aspects of a GPS-based system (and in the future, GNSS-based systems) that could contribute to real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems. Our approach is based on models of both transient and permanent displacement of GPS stations caused by large earthquakes, while considering the effect of GPS errors on inverted earthquake source parameters. Our main conclusions are that (1) the spatial pattern, magnitude, and timing of permanent displacement of GPS stations can be inverted for the earthquake source and so predict the 3D displacement field of the ocean bottom, thus providing the initial conditions for tsunami models, and (2) there are no inherently limiting factors arising from real-time orbit and positioning errors, provided sufficient near-field GPS stations are deployed. This signal could be readily exploited by GPS networks currently in place, and will be facilitated by the IGS Real-Time Project as it comes to fruition.     

Simultaneous exposure of English sole (Parophrys vetulus) to sediment-associated xenobiotics: Part 1—uptake and disposition of 14C-polychlorinated biphenyls and 3H-benzo[a]pyrene

English sole (Parophrys vetulus) were exposed to environmentally realistic levels of sediment-associated ³H-benzo[a]pyrene (3 μg BaP/g sediment, dry weight) and ¹⁴C-Aroclor 1254 (1 μg PCBs/g), separately and together, for up to 10 days. BaP and its metabolites in tissues reached steady-state concentrations by the first day of the exposure, whereas PCBs did not approach steady-state concentrations until the tenth day of exposure. Simultaneous exposure of sole to BaP and PCBs, relative to separate exposure to the xenobiotics, significantly increased the concentrations of BaP-derived radioactivity and decreased the concentrations of PCB-derived radioactivity in some tissues and bile. Accumulation of PCB-derived radioactivity, estimated as the burden in tissues, was significantly greater (4- to 13-fold) than that of BaP-derived radioactivity throughout the experiments and regardless of the type of exposure. The rank of the concentrations of PCB-derived radioactivity in tissues and bile was: bile ～ liver > brain > kidney ～ gill > skin ～ blood ～ muscle and for BaP-derived radioactivity the order was: bile > liver > gill > kidney > skin ～ blood > muscle > brain. BaP-derived radioactivity in liver and bile was present primary (85–99%) as metabolites, whereas PCB-derived radioactivity was present equally as parent compounds and metabolites in bile and primarily (98 %) as parent compounds in liver. Hydrolysis of bile from PCB/BaP-exposed sole with β-glucuronidase/arylsulfatase released 35 % of the BaP-derived radioactivity and 32 % of the PCB-derived radioactivity as primary metabolites. A much higher proportion of the BaP-derived radioactivity (64 %) than the PCB-derived radioactivity (13 %) in bile was unaffected by the enzyme treatment, indicating differences in the conjugation of the primary metabolites of PCBs and BaP. The results suggest that in contaminated environments the tissue to sediment concentration ratios for PCBs would exceed that for BaP and its metabolites; however, BaP would be continually absorbed and metabolized by sole to potentially carcinogenic and mutagenic compounds. In addition, the tissue levels of these toxic compounds may be increased by simultaneous exposure to PCBs.     

Solar Flux Emergence Simulations

We simulate the rise through the upper convection zone and emergence through the solar surface of initially uniform, untwisted, horizontal magnetic flux, with the same entropy as the nonmagnetic plasma, that is advected into a domain 48 Mm wide by 20 Mm deep. The magnetic field is advected upward by the diverging upflows and pulled down in the downdrafts, which produces a hierarchy of loop-like structures of increasingly smaller scale as the surface is approached. There are significant differences between the behavior of fields of 10 kG and 20 or 40 kG strength at 20 Mm depth. The 10 kG fields have little effect on the convective flows and show small magnetic-buoyancy effects, reaching the surface in the typical fluid rise time from 20 Mm depth of 32 hours. 20 and 40 kG fields significantly modify the convective flows, leading to long, thin cells of ascending fluid aligned with the magnetic field and their magnetic buoyancy makes them rise to the surface faster than the fluid rise time. The 20 kG field produces a large-scale magnetic loop that as it emerges through the surface leads to the formation of a bipolar, pore-like structure.     

The dynamics of the Venus ionosphere: II. The effects of the time scale of the solar wind dynamic pressure variations

The effects on the upper dayside Venus ionosphere of a slow increase in solar wind dynamic pressure are simulated numerically with a 1-dimensional (spherically symmetric) Lagrangian hydrodynamical code. The simulation is started with an extended ionosphere in pressure equilibrium with the solar wind at the ionopause. The pressure at the ionopause is gradually increased to five times the initial pressure with rise times of 5, 15, and 30 min. It is found that, for rise times greater than about 10 min, the compression of the ionopause is nearly adiabatic, with the ionopause moving downward at velocities of ～1?2 km/sec until it reaches a maximally compressed states, at which time the motion reverses. For short rise times the compression produces a shock wave similar to that occuring in the case of a sudden increase in pressure. The global implications of these processes are discussed within the context of Pioneer Venus observations and future theoretical work on this problem is outlined.     

U-Th dating of Lake Lisan (late Pleistocene dead sea) aragonite and implications for glacial east Mediterranean climate change

U-series dating can be an effective means to obtain accurate and precise ages on Quaternary carbonates. However, most samples require a correction for U and Th in admixed detritus. This complication is often addressed through generation of U-Th isochrons, requiring analyses of several coeval samples. In addition, presence of water-derived (hydrogenous) Th in the carbonate can cause inaccuracies in isochron ages.This study reports a high-resolution U-series chronology of sediments deposited by Lake Lisan, the last glacial precursor of the Dead Sea. The strategy employed combines multiple measurements from a few stratigraphic heights and fewer analyses from many heights in a single described and measured section. The resulting chronology is based on ages at 22 heights in a ∼40-m-thick section covering the interval of ∼70-14 calendar ka BP. The effects of admixed detritus are evaluated using trace elements. Nearly pure aragonite samples, indicated by very low abundances of insoluble elements such as Nb and Zr, were found to contain hydrogenous Th, which causes the uncorrected U-²³⁰Th age of a modern sample to be ∼2.5 ka. Nevertheless, accurate ages have been obtained by correcting for the detrital and aqueous interferences. The resulting ages are in stratigraphic order, and their accuracy is evidenced by consistency of Lisan Formation U-series and ¹⁴C ages with the coral-based calendar-radiocarbon age calibration.The U-Th ages provide a context to unravel the limnological history of Lake Lisan. Boundaries between the Lower, Middle, and Upper stratigraphic units correspond to the MIS 4/3 and 3/2 transitions, respectively. During MIS 2 and 4 the lake generally showed a stable two-layer configuration and a positive fresh-water balance, reflected by deposition of laminated aragonite-detritus. Dry intervals during MIS 2 and 4 are indicated by thick gypsum layers and an inferred depositional hiatus, which are temporally associated with Heinrich events H1 at ∼17 ka and H6 at ∼65 ka, respectively. During MIS 3 the lake level was unstable with intermittent dry periods indicated by abundant clastic layers and a significant hiatus between ∼43-49 ka. Clastic layers are associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger events during MIS 3, and indicate lake level declines during abrupt Northern Hemisphere warmings. Overall, the climate of the Eastern Mediterranean region shows a strong linkage to the Northern Hemisphere climate, with increasing lake size and stability during cold periods, and fluctuations and dessication during warmings and Heinrich events.     

New Mexico structural zone—an analogue of the Colorado mineral belt

Updated aeromagnetic maps of New Mexico together with current knowledge of the basement geology in the northern part of the state (Sangre de Cristo and Sandia–Manzano Mountains)—where basement rocks were exposed in Precambrian-cored uplifts—indicate that the northeast-trending Proterozoic shear zones that controlled localization of ore deposits in the Colorado mineral belt extend laterally into New Mexico. The shear zones in New Mexico coincide spatially with known epigenetic precious- and base-metal ore deposits; thus, the mineralized belts in the two states share a common inherited basement tectonic setting. Reactivation of the basement structures in Late Cretaceous–Eocene and Mid-Tertiary times provided zones of weakness for emplacement of magmas and conduits for ore-forming solutions. Ore deposits in the Colorado mineral belt are of both Late Cretaceous–Eocene and Mid-Tertiary age; those in New Mexico are predominantly Mid-Tertiary in age, but include Late Cretaceous porphyry-copper deposits in southwestern New Mexico.The mineralized belt in New Mexico, named the New Mexico structural zone, is 250-km wide. The northwest boundary is the Jemez subzone (or the approximately equivalent Globe belt), and the southeastern boundary was approximately marked by the Santa Rita belt. Three groups (subzones) of mineral deposits characterize the structural zone: (1) Mid-Tertiary porphyry molybdenite and alkaline-precious-metal deposits, in the northeast segment of the Jemez zone; (2) Mid-Tertiary epithermal precious-metal deposits in the Tijeras (intermediate) zone; and (3) Late Cretaceous porphyry-copper deposits in the Santa Rita zone. The structural zone was inferred to extend from New Mexico into adjacent Arizona. The structural zone provides favorable sites for exploration, particularly those parts of the Jemez subzone covered by Neogene volcanic and sedimentary rocks.     

Numerical modeling of cyclic mobility based on fuzzy-set concepts in plasticity theory

In this paper, the application of an efficient, transparent and accurate kinematic-cyclic constitutive model based on the fuzzy-set concepts and incremental plasticity theory is presented to show its capability in modeling cyclic mobility of saturated granular soil. The nature and kinematic mechanism of the membership functions in the fuzzy-set constitutive model are illustrated. The model’s capability of modeling soil dilatancy is investigated. Important features of volume change and pore water pressure build-up related to soil cyclic mobility are captured. The formulation of the proposed model is relatively simple and it can be readily implemented in finite element codes. The enhanced fuzzy-set model is capable of simulating ground motion problems particularly related to cyclic mobility, soil liquefaction, and spreading behavior.     

Evaluation of bank filtration as a pretreatment method for the provision of hygienically safe drinking water in Norway: results from monitoring at two full-scale sites

Two case studies were carried out in central Norway in order to assess the performance of bank filtration systems in cold-climate fluvial aquifers relying on recharge from humic-rich surface waters with moderate microbial contamination. Three municipal wells and two surface-water sources at operative bank filtration systems were monitored for naturally occurring bacteriophages, fecal indicators, natural organic matter (NOM) and physico-chemical water quality parameters during a 4-month period. Aquifer passage effectively reduced the microorganism and NOM concentrations at both study sites. Bacteriophages were detected in 13 of 16 (81%) surface-water samples and in 4 of 24 (17%) well-water samples, and underwent 3 ± 0.3 log₁₀ reduction after 50–80-m filtration and 20–30 days of subsurface passage. NOM reductions (color: 74–97%; dissolved organic carbon: 54–80%; very hydrophobic acids: 70%) were similar to those achieved by conventional water-treatment processes and no further treatment was needed. Both groundwater dilution and sediment filtration contributed to the hygienic water quality improvements, but sediment filtration appeared to be the most important process with regard to microbial and NOM reductions. A strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats analysis showed that bank filtration technology has a high potential as a pretreatment method for the provision of hygienically safe drinking water in Norway.