方差的边缘极大似然估计

测量平差问题中,方差估计理论是复杂的。本文基于概括模型,组成自由项f(极大似然估计MLE)的密度函数和改正数向量V的线性函数(边缘极大似然估计MMLE)的密度函数,详细推导了函数模型与随机模型中,未知参数X与σ₀²的似然估计公式,分析了基于两种密度函数所得σ₀²的似然估计存在差异的真正原因,并对两种方法所得的σ₀²和X的统计性质进行了讨论。指出边缘极大似然估计,σ₀²的具有良好的统计性质,可改善极大似然估计σ₀²的不定性(有偏);并且对任一平差模型的边缘极大似然估计,σ₀²无偏、有效的统计性质是一致的。     

Solubilities,Densities,Refractive Indices of Aqueous Ternary Systems PEG400-NaCl/KCl-H2O at 298 K

Phase equilibria for the NaCl/KCl-PEG400-H_2 O aqueous ternary systems at 298 K were studied using an isothermal dissolution method. In addition,the densities and refractive indices were determined. The corresponding phase diagrams,as well as the density vs. composition and refractive index vs.composition diagrams,were plotted. Results revealed that over the entire PEG400 composition range studied at 298 K only 1 liquid phase was obtained,without the formation of a biphase region. The phase diagrams of these 2 systems consist of 1 homogeneous area with unsaturated liquid( L) and an equilibrium area containing the solid phase of NaCl/KCl and the saturated liquid phase( S + L). The solubility of NaCl/KCl decreases with the addition of PEG400 at 298 K.     

New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015–2030

The future development of new-type urbanization has drawn great attention from both the government and public alike. In this context, the present study had three related research aims. Firstly, it sought to predict the urbanization and population dynamics in China at both national and provincial levels for the period of 2015 to 2030. Secondly, on this basis, it sought to examine the spatial variation of urbanization given the predicted national urbanization rate of 70.12%. Thirdly, it sought to estimate and evaluate the national and provincial demands of investment in the development of new-type urbanization. The main conclusions from this study were as follows: (1) The population size and urbanization rate will reach 1.445 billion and 70.12%, respectively, from 2015 to 2030. (2) The demographic dividend will vanish when the population pressure reaches its maximum. During this period, there will be 70.16 million urban population born. The suburban population that becomes urbanized will be 316.7 million, and thus the net increase in urban population will reach 386 million. (3) Although the urbanization rate of every Chinese province will increase during 2015–2030, it will do so unequally, while differences in urbanization quality among provinces will also be substantial. In some provinces, moreover, the urbanization quality is not compatible with their eco-social development. (4) A total of 4,105,380 billion yuan is required to fund new-type urbanization and the investment demand for each province varies greatly; for example, Guangdong province requires the most funding, amounting to approximately 148 times that required by Tibet, the province in least need of funding. In the final part of this study, policy suggestions concerning the investment of the new-type urbanization are put forward and discussed.     

QuikSCAT卫星散射计矢量风检验及南海月平均风场特征分析

采用中国科学院南海海洋研究所2008年建设的,西沙海洋观测研究站上的自动气象站实测数据,对亚太数据研究中心提供的近实时QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场资料(2008年4月6日—12月31日)进行了检验和统计特征分析,得出:这两者风速的相关系数为0.86,平均偏差为-1.50 m/s,均方根误差为1.71 m/s,表明QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场资料在南海具有很高的适用性。在此基础上,利用QuikSCAT卫星遥感的月平均风场资料分析了南海月平均风场特征。结果表明:(1)南海季风10月到次年3月盛行东北风,6—8月盛行西南风,4、5、9月为季风转换季节;(2)存在两个平均风速大值中心,一个位于南海南部(10°N,108°E)附近,另一个位于台湾海峡附近,其位置和强度会随着季节变化而变动。     

南方涛动(SO)与北大西洋涛动(NAO)百年变化特征的正交小波分析

利用“南海季风科学试验”（SCSMEX）所获得的可靠资料，对1998年区域海陆热力状况进行了分析与对比，并着重讨论了西太平洋和青藏高原地区热力作用对1998年季风爆发及发展的可能影响。结果发现：大气热源分布与海陆分布有密切联系，由于地形的阻挡使得在包含有南北海陆分布差异的地区，热源主要大值带较全海洋区域明显偏南。表面加热存在明显的季节变化和海陆差异。西太平洋地区与夏季风爆发之间的联系主要表现在海温和潜热加热的变化上。高原在亚洲夏季风爆发过程中的作用机制不同：在南海季风爆发期间以感热加热为主，印度季风爆发期间以水汽凝结释放潜热为主。     

利用MM5模式输出产品制作空气质量预报方法探讨

根据2004年中尺度数值预报模式MM5输出产品和临沂市环境监测中心逐日监测资料建立了各污染物浓度预报方程,在2005年夏季的试报中,该方程的试报效果较差,其预报准确率明显低于其历史拟合率。为了提高预报准确率,利用逐步回归筛选的因子及统计模型研究中的有关数据,探讨了使用卡尔曼滤波方法制作空气污染物浓度预报的问题。分析发现,利用卡尔曼滤波方法制作空气质量预报可以取得比较满意的效果。     

2008年加拿大海盆次表层暖水的精细结构的研究

自2004年以来,在加拿大海盆频繁发生的次表层暖水(near surface temperature maximum,NSTM)现象是北极快速变化响应的事实之一.采用2008年中国第3次北极科学考察的CTD数据和西北冰洋联合研究计划与美国波弗特环流观测系统计划2008年航次的CTD数据以及冰浮标ITP18数据,对加拿大...     

不同流路时期黄河三角洲沿岸余流场的数值对比研究

黄河入海流路改道变迁频繁,有关不同流路时期沿岸余流场变化的认识将为理解入海泥沙输送特征的变动和沿岸泥沙动态提供重要的水动力基础,通过数值对比实验,以分处黄河三角洲北、东两岸的钓口和清水沟流路为例,对比研究了两个流路基本稳定后的初期黄河三角洲沿岸余流场结构及其流速的变化.结果表明,虽然两个不同流路时期沿岸流系的总体趋势存在一致性,但不同岸段的局部余流场结构、流速及其分布在不同季节都发生了程度不一的变化.在流场结构上,夏、冬季的差异很小,而春、秋季的差异相对较大,特别是在10m以浅的近岸海域的变化明显.高流速区分布,在钓口流路时期具有随各突出沙嘴而生的特点,清水沟流路时则是沿岸线走向、呈条带状延伸,且其分布范围更大、中心流速更高.沿岸余流流速在清水沟流路时期比钓口流路时期大很多,以清水沟口以南海域的流速增加最显著,北岸海域其次,清水沟口以北、神仙沟以南岸段的变化最小,在季节上以冬季增幅最明显.两个不同流路时期沿岸潮致余流场的总体特征也是基本一致的,分布于甜水沟沙嘴(清水沟口)南、北部的涡环结构在清水沟流路时期明显向东北方向移动,清水沟流路时期神仙沟和甜水沟等原沙嘴附近的潮致余流流速存在明显的减小.     

Arctic oscillation and the antarcic oscillation modes in the atmospheric stratosphere

1IntroductionThompson and Wallace(1998)first found the AOin1998and according to their definition,the spatialpattern of AO from the first EOF mode for the sea lev-el air-pressure(SLP)was that around the North Poleregion there was an oscillation out-of-phase with thatat the mid-latitudes zone.This oscillation had verywide frequency range from interannual to interdecadaltime scales.The AO is similar to the North Atlantic oscilla-tion(NAO)over the Atlantic.As Wallace said,theNAO could be…     

黄海陆架表层水温的低频振动

本文在对位于黄海南部陆架上的朝连岛站30年水温资料进行分析时发现,该站的表层水温有周期大于20个月的低频振动,其中以准两年周期和6年周期最显著。陆架水温的这种低频振动是对东亚季风异常的响应。这种低频振动在冬季与渤海冰情的变化同步;在夏季与黄海底层冷水团的强弱相关。同时,这种低频振动在对马暖流上也有一定的反映。