Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PRELIMINARY NOTE ON THE GRANULOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF SEDIMENTARY ROCKS

The observation that the results of line and point counting analyses of the particle size distribution of the same sand are different leads to the conclusion that these results are biased by the sampling technique¹. The influence of the currently used sampling techniques on the numerical results of a particle size analysis is discussed. Evidence is presented to show that the use of line and point counting methods in granulometric analysis leads to results in which the influence of the sampling method is so strong that the practical value of these techniques is doubtful. It is therefore considered advisable to discontinue line and point counting techniques in granulometric analysis in favour of ribbon sampling methods.     

Structural and stratigraphical constraints on the kinematics history of the Southern Tan–Lu Fault Zone during the Mesozoic Anhui Province, China

The Tan–Lu Fault Zone (TLFZ) extends in a NNE–SSW direction for more than 2000 km in Eastern China. It has been considered either as a major sinistral strike-slip fault, as a suture zone or as a normal fault. We have conducted a structural analysis of the southern segment of this fault zone (STLFZ) in the Anhui Province. The ages (Triassic to Palaeocene) of the formations affected by the faults have been re-appraised taking into account recent stratigraphical studies to better constraint the ages of the successive stages of the kinematics of the STLFZ. Subsequently, the kinematics of the faults is presented in terms of strain/stress fields by inversion of the striated fault set data. Finally, the data are discussed in the light of the results obtained by previous workers.We propose the following history of the STLFZ kinematics during the Mesozoic. At the time of collision, a  NNE orientated Tan–Lu margin probably connected two margins located north of the Dabie and Sulu collision belts. During the Middle–Late Triassic, the SCB has been obliquely subducted below the NCB along this margin which has acted as a compressional transfer zone between the Dabie and Sulu continental subduction zones. The STLFZ has been initiated during the Early Jurassic and has acted as a sinistral transform fault during the Jurassic, following which the NCB/SCB collision stopped. A  NW-trending extension related to metamorphic domes was active during the basal Early Cretaceous ( 135–130 Ma); it has been followed by a NW–SE compression and a NE–SW tension during the middle–late Early Cretaceous ( 127 to  105 Ma, possibly  95 Ma); at that time the TLFZ was a sinistral transcurrent fault within the eastern part of the Asian continent. During the Late Cretaceous–Palaeocene, the STLFZ was a normal fault zone under a WNW–ESE tension.     

Burning issues: Whiteness, rurality and the politics of difference

In the past decade geographers have critiqued the exclusivity of idyllic representations of rurality and sought to explore the diverse experiences of Other social groups in the countryside. This paper builds upon that small but significant strand of research which has highlighted the whiteness of representations of rurality and the consequences of this for racialised minorities. These debates have been crucially important in forwarding our understanding of racially-exclusive constructions of idyllic country living; however, it is important that academics neither assume that such ideas are forever fixed, nor that they affect all minority ethnic groups in the same ways. This paper takes both the potential power and frailty of these ideas seriously, as it examines how the concepts of race, racism and rurality are deployed by different commentators as they debate the place of one specific minority ethnic group in the English countryside. The route taken into this is a consideration of print-media reporting of events in Firle, Sussex, where, in 2003, some white rural residents symbolically purged their village of Gypsy-Travellers by burning a mock caravan complete with effigies at their annual bonfire celebrations. In conclusion, the paper challenges the relative lack of attention to these issues within the white-dominated discipline of geography, and argues that it is imperative to trace the dynamic ways in which the whiteness of idyllic understandings of the rural are reinforced and challenged through contemporary social practice.     

Digital Image Based Approach for Three-Dimensional Mechanical Analysis of Heterogeneous Rocks

Summary This paper presents a digital image based approach for three-dimensional (3-D) numerical simulation and failure analysis of rocks by taking into account the actual 3-D heterogeneity. Digital image techniques are adopted to extract two-dimensional (2-D) material heterogeneity from material surface images. The 2-D image mesostructures are further extrapolated to 3-D cuboid mesostructures by assuming the material surface as a representation of the inner material heterogeneity within a very small depth. The iterative milling and scanning system is set up to generate the 3-D rock mesostructures. A Hong Kong granite specimen is used as an example to demonstrate the procedure of 3-D mesostructure establishment. The mechanical responses and failure process under the conventional Brazilian tensile test condition are examined through numerical analyses. The stress distribution, crack propagation process and failure model of heterogeneous material cases are simulated with a finite difference software. The numerical results indicate that material heterogeneity plays an important role in determining the failure behavior of rocks under external loading.     

Automated Image Registration for Hydrologic Change Detection in the Lake-Rich Arctic

Multitemporal remote sensing provides a unique tool to track lake dynamics at the pan-Arctic scale but requires precise registration of thousands of satellite images. This is a challenging task owing to a dearth of stable features to be used as tie points [(TPs), i.e., control points] in the dynamic landscapes. This letter develops an automated method to precisely register images in the lake-rich Arctic. The core premise of the method is that the centers of lakes are generally stable even if their shorelines are not. The proposed procedures first extract lakes in multitemporal satellite images, derive lake centroids and match them between images, and then use the centroids of stable lakes as TPs for image registration. The results show that this approach can achieve subpixel registration accuracy, outcompeting the conventional manual methods in both efficiency and accuracy. The proposed method is fully automated and represents a feasible way to register images for lake change detection at the pan-Arctic scale.