The need for operational reasoning in data‐driven rating curve prediction of suspended sediment

The use of data‐driven modelling techniques to deliver improved suspended sediment rating curves has received considerable interest in recent years. Studies indicate an increased level of performance over traditional approaches when such techniques are adopted. However, closer scrutiny reveals that, unlike their traditional counterparts, data‐driven solutions commonly include lagged sediment data as model inputs, and this seriously limits their operational application. In this paper, we argue the need for a greater degree of operational reasoning underpinning data‐driven rating curve solutions and demonstrate how incorrect conclusions about the performance of a data‐driven modelling technique can be reached when the model solution is based upon operationally invalid input combinations. We exemplify the problem through the re‐analysis and augmentation of a recent and typical published study, which uses gene expression programming to model the rating curve. We compare and contrast the previously published solutions, whose inputs negate their operational application, with a range of newly developed and directly comparable traditional and data‐driven solutions, which do have operational value. Results clearly demonstrate that the performance benefits of the published gene expression programming solutions are dependent on the inclusion of operationally limiting, lagged data inputs. Indeed, when operationally inapplicable input combinations are discounted from the models and the analysis is repeated, gene expression programming fails to perform as well as many simpler, more standard multiple linear regression, piecewise linear regression and neural network counterparts. The potential for overstatement of the benefits of the data‐driven paradigm in rating curve studies is thus highlighted. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling stream flow for use in ecological studies in a large,arid zone river,central Australia

Australian arid zone ephemeral rivers are typically unregulated and maintain a high level of biodiversity and ecological health. Understanding the ecosystem functions of these rivers requires an understanding of their hydrology. These rivers are typified by highly variable hydrological regimes and a paucity, often a complete absence, of hydrological data to describe these flow regimes. A daily time‐step, grid‐based, conceptual rainfall–runoff model was developed for the previously uninstrumented Neales River in the arid zone of northern South Australia. Hourly, logged stage data provided a record of stream‐flow events in the river system. In conjunction with opportunistic gaugings of stream‐flow events, these data were used in the calibration of the model. The poorly constrained spatial variability of rainfall distribution and catchment characteristics (e.g. storage depths) limited the accuracy of the model in replicating the absolute magnitudes and volumes of stream‐flow events. In particular, small but ecologically important flow events were poorly modelled. Model performance was improved by the application of catchment‐wide processes replicating quick runoff from high intensity rainfall and improving the area inundated versus discharge relationship in the channel sections of the model. Representing areas of high and low soil moisture storage depths in the hillslope areas of the catchment also improved the model performance. The need for some explicit representation of the spatial variability of catchment characteristics (e.g. channel/floodplain, low storage hillslope and high storage hillslope) to effectively model the range of stream‐flow events makes the development of relatively complex rainfall–runoff models necessary for multisite ecological studies in large, ungauged arid zone catchments. Grid‐based conceptual models provide a good balance between providing the capacity to easily define land types with differing rainfall–runoff responses, flexibility in defining data output points and a parsimonious water‐balance–routing model. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Towards estimating root‐zone soil moisture using surface multispectral and thermal sensing: A spectral and hydrometeorological dataset from the Dookie experiment site,Victoria, Australia

This paper describes surface hydrometeorological and spectral datasets collected from two tower sites located in the University of Melbourne's Dookie experimental farm, Victoria, Australia. The datasets were collected from different vegetation types including wheat, canola, and grazed pasture during the 2012, 2013, and 2014 cropping seasons. The dataset includes 30‐min frequency latent and sensible heat flux measurements and layer‐average soil moisture data at profile depths of 0–5, 0–30, 30–60, 60–90, and 90–120 cm. Air temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, precipitation, and incoming and outgoing longwave and shortwave radiation data were also collected from two locations in the study area. The dataset described in this paper is available online.     

High spatial and temporal resolution observations of the ionospheric cusp

The Halley PACE HF radar has been operated in a new mode to provide very high time (10 s) and space (15 km) resolution measurements of the iono-spheric signatures of the cusp and the low-latitude boundary layer. The first data show that the iono-spheric signature of flux transfer events occur up to 300 km equatorward of regions showing the HF characteristics of the ionospheric cusp. Whilst larger flux transfer events are seen, on average, every 7 min, many much smaller and short-duration events have been identified. On one occasion DMSP data have been used to show that at least four flux transfer events are occurring simultaneously at the edge of the cusp over 2 h of MLT. There is strong, but not conclusive evidence, that reconnection at the magnetopause is both intermittent and patchy. These data also suggest that flux transfer events can be a significant contributor to the cross-polar cap potential.     

Garnet and pyroxene compositions in some diamondiferous eclogites

Analyses are reported for garnet and pyroxene from 17 eclogites that contain diamond. The garnets contain small but significant contents of Na, Ti and P and the pyroxenes contain traces of K. The diamond-bearing eclogites do not constitute a unique compositional group but show a range of mineral compositions consistent with a very high P-T environment.     

A parallel, implicit, cell‐centered method for two‐phase flow with a preconditioned Newton–Krylov solver

A new parallel solution technique is developed for the fully implicit three‐dimensional two‐phase flow model. An expandedcell‐centered finite difference scheme which allows for a full permeability tensor is employed for the spatial discretization, and backwardEuler is used for the time discretization. The discrete systems are solved using a novel inexact Newton method that reuses the Krylov information generated by the GMRES linear iterative solver. Fast nonlinear convergence can be achieved by composing inexact Newton steps with quasi‐Newton steps restricted to the underlying Krylov subspace. Furthermore, robustness and efficiency are achieved with a line‐search backtracking globalization strategy for the nonlinear systems and a preconditioner for each coupled linear system to be solved. This inexact Newton method also makes use of forcing terms suggested by Eisenstat and Walker which prevent oversolving of the Jacobian systems. The preconditioner is a new two‐stage method which involves a decoupling strategy plus the separate solutions of both nonwetting‐phase pressure and saturation equations. Numerical results show that these nonlinear and linear solvers are very effective.     

Indirect crustal contamination: evidence from isotopic and chemical disequilibria in minerals from alkali basalts and nephelinites from northern Tanzania

 Alkali basalts and nephelinites from the volcanic province of northern Tanzania contain pyroxene and nepheline that show evidence for chemical and/or isotopic disequilibria with their host magmas. Olivine, pyroxene, nepheline and plagioclase all appear to be partially xenocrystic in origin. Five whole rock/mineral separate pairs have been analyzed for Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopic compositions. The ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios are distinct by as much as 20.94 (whole rock) vs. 19.10 (clinopyroxene separate). The Sr and Nd isotopic disequilibria vary from insignificant in the case of nepheline, to Δ ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of 0.0002 and Δɛ_Nd of 0.7 in the case of clinopyroxene. The mineral chemistry of 25 samples indicates the ubiquitous presence of minerals that did not crystallize from a liquid represented by the host rock. The northern Tanzanian magmas are peralkaline and exhibit none of the xenocrystic phases expected from crustal assimilation. The disequilibria cannot be the result of mantle source variations. Rather the xenocrystic phases present appear to have been derived from earlier alkali basaltic rocks or magmas that were contaminated by the crust. Material from this earlier magma was then mixed with batches of magma that subsequently erupted on the surface. Disequilibrium in volcanic rocks has potentially serious consequences for the use of whole rock data to identify source reservoirs. However, mass balance calculations reveal that the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb isotopic compositions of the erupted lavas were changed by less than 0.25% as a result of this indirect crustal contamination. Received: 15 February 1995 / Accepted: 4 May 1996     

Reduced sapphirine granulite xenoliths from the Lace Kimberlite,South Africa; implications for the deep structure of the Kaapvaal Craton

Sapphirine-bearing granulites, together with sapphirine-free granulites and eclogites, occur as xenoliths in the kimberlite of the Lace diatreme that penetrates the Kaapvaal craton, S. Africa. Absence of (calculated) Fe³⁺ in sapphirine, garnet and sillimanite, together with presence of graphite and sulphides, suggests highly reducing conditions of metamorphism. Chemical considerations and comparisons with experimental investigations suggest metamorphism of a sedimentary (?chlorite-montmorillonite) protolith at 900–1000° C and > 10 Kb; high Cr in the assemblage may point to a basic/ultrabasic precursor. The xenoliths indicate the presence of a very-high-grade granulite terrain, possibly similar to Enderby Land (Antarctica), beneath the Kaapval craton.