An agent-based model for risk-based flood incident management

Effective flood incident management (FIM) requires successful operation of complex, interacting human and technological systems. A dynamic agent-based model of FIM processes has been developed to provide new insights which can be used for policy analysis and other practical applications. The model integrates remotely sensed information on topography, buildings and road networks with empirical survey data to fit characteristics of specific communities. The multiagent simulation has been coupled with a hydrodynamic model to estimate the vulnerability of individuals to flooding under different storm surge conditions, defence breach scenarios, flood warning times and evacuation strategies. A case study in the coastal town of Towyn in the United Kingdom has demonstrated the capacity of the model to analyse the risks of flooding to people, support flood emergency planning and appraise the benefits of flood incident management measures.     

Contrasting effects of ecosystem engineering by the cordgrass Spartina maritima and the sandprawn Callianassa kraussi in a marine-dominated lagoon

Ecosystem engineering by plants and animals significantly influences community structure and the physico-chemical characteristics of marine habitats. In this paper we document the contrasting effects of ecosystem engineering by the cordgrass Spartina maritima and the burrowing sandprawn Callianassa kraussi on physico-chemical characteristics, microflora, macrofaunal community structure and morphological attributes in the high shore intertidal sandflats of Langebaan Lagoon, a marine-dominated system on the west coast of South Africa. Comparisons were made at six sites in the lagoon within Spartina and Callianassa beds, and in a “bare zone” of sandflat between these two habitats that lacks both sandprawns and cordgrass. Sediments in Spartina habitats were consolidated by the root-shoot systems of the cordgrass, leading to low sediment penetrability, while sediments in beds of C. kraussi were more penetrable, primarily due to the destabilising effects of sandprawn bioturbation. Sediments in the “bare zone” had intermediate to low values of penetrability. Sediment organic content was lowest in bare zones and greatest in Spartina beds, while sediment chl-a levels were greatest on bare sand, but were progressively reduced in the Spartina and Callianassa beds. These differences among habitats induced by ecosystem engineering in turn affected the macrofauna. Community structure was different between all three habitats sampled, with species richness being surprisingly greater in Callianassa beds than either the bare zone or Spartina beds. In general, the binding of surface sediments by the root systems of Spartina favoured rigid-bodied, surface-dwelling and tube-building species, while the destabilising effect of bioturbation by C. kraussi favoured burrowing species. The contrasting effects of these ecosystem engineers suggest that they play important roles in increasing habitat heterogeneity. Importantly, the role of bioturbation by C. kraussi in enhancing macrofaunal richness was unexpected. By loosening sediments, reducing anoxia and enhancing organic content, C. kraussi may engineer these high shore habitats to ameliorate environmental stresses or increase food availability.     

Advances in the use of observed spatial patterns of catchment hydrological response

Over the past two decades there have been repeated calls for the collection of new data for use in developing hydrological science. The last few years have begun to bear fruit from the seeds sown by these calls, through increases in the availability and utility of remote sensing data, as well as the execution of campaigns in research catchments aimed at providing new data for advancing hydrological understanding and predictive capability. In this paper we discuss some philosophical considerations related to model complexity, data availability and predictive performance, highlighting the potential of observed patterns in moving the science and practice of catchment hydrology forward. We then review advances that have arisen from recent work on spatial patterns, including in the characterisation of spatial structure and heterogeneity, and the use of patterns for developing, calibrating and testing distributed hydrological models. We illustrate progress via examples using observed patterns of snow cover, runoff occurrence and soil moisture. Methods for the comparison of patterns are presented, illustrating how they can be used to assess hydrologically important characteristics of model performance. These methods include point-to-point comparisons, spatial relationships between errors and landscape parameters, transects, and optimal local alignment. It is argued that the progress made to date augers well for future developments, but there is scope for improvements in several areas. These include better quantitative methods for pattern comparisons, better use of pattern information in data assimilation and modelling, and a call for improved archiving of data from field studies to assist in comparative studies for generalising results and developing fundamental understanding.     

Terrigenous dissolved organic matter along an estuarine gradient and its flux to the coastal ocean

The contribution of terrigenous organic matter (TOM) to high molecular weight dissolved and particulate organic matter (POM) was examined along the salinity gradient of the Delaware Estuary. Dissolved organic matter (DOM) was fractionated by ultrafiltration into 1–30 kDa (HDOM) and 30 kDa–0.2 μm (VHDOM) nominal molecular weight fractions. Thermochemolysis with tetramethylammonium hydroxide (TMAH) was used to release and quantify lipids and lignin phenols. Stable carbon isotopes, fatty acids and lignin content indicated shifts in sources with terrigenous material in the river and turbid region and a predominantly algal/planktonic signal in the lower estuary and coastal ocean. Thermochemolysis with TMAH released significant amounts of short chain fatty acids (C₉–C₁₃), not seen by traditional alkaline hydrolysis, which appear to be associated with the macromolecular matrix. Lignin phenol distributions in HDOM, VHDOM and particles followed predicted sources with higher concentrations in the river and turbid region of the estuary and lower concentrations in the coastal ocean. TOM comprised 12% of HDOM within the coastal ocean and up to 73% of HDOM within the turbid region of the estuary. In the coastal ocean, TOM from high molecular weight DOM comprised 4% of total DOC. The annual flux of TOM from the Delaware Estuary to the coastal ocean was estimated at 2.0×10¹⁰ g OC year⁻¹ and suggests that temperate estuaries such as Delaware Bay can be significant sources of TOM on a regional scale.     

The Stratigraphy,Sedimentology, and Fossils of the Haughton Formation: A Post-Impact Crater-Fill,Devon Island,N.W.T., Canada

Abstract— After the impact that formed Haughton crater, 22.4 ± 1.4 Ma ago (early Miocene), the cavity filled with water and began to accumulate lacustrine sediments. These preserve detailed evidence of pre-impact stratigraphy and post-impact morphology and development of the crater, as well as of the climatic and biotic regime in which it lay. In this report we formally designate these sediments as the Haughton Formation, of which only a 48 m thick remnant covering approximately 7 km² still exists. Dolomite-rich, poorly-sorted silt, fine sand, and mud are the principal lithologies. The formation unconformably overlies a blanket of allochthonous impact breccia forming the floor of the original crater. Presence of a debris-flow deposit in the base of the sequence indicates that lacustine deposition began very shortly after crater formation. The Haughton Formation contains a moderately diverse and highly endemic vertebrate fauna as well as palynomorphs and plant macrofossils that indicate a cool-temperate climatic regime. A small percentage of reworked Late Cretaceous and early Tertiary palynomorphs point to the former existence of the Eureka Sound Formation in the drainage area of the crater. In addition, the distribution of the lake beds indicates the absence of an inner ring on the west side of the crater, and the 3° to 3.5° inward dip of Haughton strata implies that the central mass has subsided approximately 300 to 350 m since deposition began.     

Dawn-dusk (y) component of the interplanetary magnetic field and the local time of the harang discontinuity

We describe a simple method for determining the time at which the meridian of a sub-auroral magnetic observatory crosses that of the Harang discontinuity—the separation of the eastward and westward electrojets which flow in the evening and morning sectors of the auroral oval. We then consider how this time, determined from examination of magnetograms from sub-auroral observatories varies with the dawn-dusk (y) component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. We find that the time at which the Harang discontinuity is identified in the Northern Hemisphere is earlier for B_y > 0 than the occasions when B_y < 0, and that the converse is observed in the Southern Hemisphere. Also we suggest that there is no significant seasonal variation in the relationship between the time of the discontinuity and B_y. The sense of the azimuthal shift of the auroral electrojet currents with changes in B_y is consistent with the theory of Cowley (1981). However, the magnitude of the observed shifts is approximately an order of magnitude greater than the theoretical predictions. We suggest that this difference between observation and theory arises from the use of a dipole magnetic field model at auroral zone latitudes in the theoretical estimation of azimuthal displacement.     

Late Holocene coastal sand movements in the Outer Hebrides, N.W. Scotland

Lithostratigraphical and biostratigraphical investigation of coastal marshes along the Atlantic coast of the Outer Hebrides from Lewis in the north to Barra in the south discloses inland-tapering sand units within marshland areas. The inland extent of each sand unit has been radiometrically dated and the units have been collectively interpreted as a proxy for past coastal storminess. The data appear to indicate that for the study sites investigated, the majority of the sand units were produced during episodes of climate deterioration both prior to and after the well-known period of Medieval warmth (MWP). Many were produced after ca. AD 1400. It is argued that the episodes of sand blow indicated by the deposits may reflect periods of increased cyclogenesis in the Atlantic associated with increased sea ice cover and an increase in the thermal gradient across the North Atlantic region.     

Vertical integration in the post-IFQ halibut fishery

In some fisheries, claims have been made that quota programs have led to increased vertical integration, with processors controlling quota and fishermen. In the US halibut fishery a quota program was designed specifically to maintain the small-scale vessel nature of the fishery. This paper reports on what changes have been seen in the vertical structure of the halibut fishery and offers some explanation for these changes. Results indicate that the specific rights granted can have significantly different effects on the vertical structure of the industry. In the case of the halibut fishery vertical integration was avoided and market transactions actually increased.     

Near-shore swell estimation from a global wind-wave model: Spectral process,linear, and artificial neural network models

Estimation of swell conditions in coastal regions is important for a variety of public, government, and research applications. Driving a model of the near-shore wave transformation from an offshore global swell model such as NOAA WaveWatch3 is an economical means to arrive at swell size estimates at particular locations of interest. Recently, some work (e.g. Browne et al. [Browne, M., Strauss, D., Castelle, B., Blumenstein, M., Tomlinson, R., 2006. Local swell estimation and prediction from a global wind-wave model. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters 3 (4), 462–466.]) has examined an artificial neural network (ANN) based, empirical approach to wave estimation. Here, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of two data driven approaches to estimating waves near-shore (linear and ANN), and also contrast these with a more traditional spectral wave simulation model (SWAN). Performance was assessed on data gathered from a total of 17 near-shore locations, with heterogenous geography and bathymetry, around the continent of Australia over a 7 month period. It was found that the ANNs out-performed SWAN and the non-linear architecture consistently out-performed the linear method. Variability in performance and differential performance with regard to geographical location could largely be explained in terms of the underlying complexity of the local wave transformation.