Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO₂/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO₂/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

     

High-precision repeat-groundtrack orbit design and maintenance for Earth observation missions

The focus of this paper is the design and station keeping of repeat-groundtrack orbits for Sun-synchronous satellites. A method to compute the semimajor axis of the orbit is presented together with a station-keeping strategy to compensate for the perturbation due to the atmospheric drag. The results show that the nodal period converges gradually with the increase of the order used in the zonal perturbations up to \(J_{15}\). A differential correction algorithm is performed to obtain the nominal semimajor axis of the reference orbit from the inputs of the desired nodal period, eccentricity, inclination and argument of perigee. To keep the satellite in the proximity of the repeat-groundtrack condition, a practical orbit maintenance strategy is proposed in the presence of errors in the orbital measurements and control, as well as in the estimation of the semimajor axis decay rate. The performance of the maintenance strategy is assessed via the Monte Carlo simulation and the validation in a high fidelity model. Numerical simulations substantiate the validity of proposed mean-elements-based orbit maintenance strategy for repeat-groundtrack orbits.     

Efficient design of direct low-energy transfers in multi-moon systems

In this contribution, an efficient technique to design direct (i.e., without intermediate flybys) low-energy trajectories in multi-moon systems is presented. The method relies on analytical two-body approximations of trajectories originating from the stable and unstable invariant manifolds of two coupled circular restricted three-body problems. We provide a means to perform very fast and accurate computations of the minimum-cost trajectories between two moons. Eventually, we validate the methodology by comparison with numerical integrations in the three-body problem. Motivated by the growing interest in the robotic exploration of the Jovian system, which has given rise to numerous studies and mission proposals, we apply the method to the design of minimum-cost low-energy direct trajectories between Galilean moons, and the case study is that of Ganymede and Europa.     

The role of hydrothermal fluids in sedimentation in saline alkaline lakes: Evidence from Nasikie Engida,Kenya Rift Valley

Saline alkaline lakes that precipitate sodium carbonate evaporites are most common in volcanic terrains in semi‐arid environments. Processes that lead to trona precipitation are poorly understood compared to those in sulphate‐dominated and chloride‐dominated lake brines. Nasikie Engida (Little Magadi) in the southern Kenya Rift shows the initial stages of soda evaporite formation. This small shallow (<2 m deep; 7 km long) lake is recharged by alkaline hot springs and seasonal runoff but unlike neighbouring Lake Magadi is perennial. This study aims to understand modern sedimentary and geochemical processes in Nasikie Engida and to assess the importance of geothermal fluids in evaporite formation. Perennial hot‐spring inflow waters along the northern shoreline evaporate and become saturated with respect to nahcolite and trona, which precipitate in the southern part of the lake, up to 6 km from the hot springs. Nahcolite (NaHCO₃) forms bladed crystals that nucleate on the lake floor. Trona (Na₂CO₃·NaHCO₃·2H₂O) precipitates from more concentrated brines as rafts and as bottom‐nucleated shrubs of acicular crystals that coalesce laterally to form bedded trona. Many processes modify the fluid composition as it evolves. Silica is removed as gels and by early diagenetic reactions and diatoms. Sulphate is depleted by bacterial reduction. Potassium and chloride, of moderate concentration, remain conservative in the brine. Clastic sedimentation is relatively minor because of the predominant hydrothermal inflow. Nahcolite precipitates when and where pCO₂ is high, notably near sublacustrine spring discharge. Results from Nasikie Engida show that hot spring discharge has maintained the lake for at least 2 kyr, and that the evaporite formation is strongly influenced by local discharge of carbon dioxide. Brine evolution and evaporite deposition at Nasikie Engida help to explain conditions under which ancient sodium carbonate evaporites formed, including those in other East African rift basins, the Eocene Green River Formation (western USA), and elsewhere.     

Shallow landslides in deeply weathered slates of the Sierra de Collcerola (Catalonian Coastal Range, Spain)

Stability conditions in an area located NW of Barcelona (Spain) are discussed. Here, several mass movements were observed, mainly affecting weathered Paleozoic slates. Many of these failures involved slopes cut along recent infrastructures: debris flows, wedge and plane failures, generally surficial, occurred more frequently. After a detailed geological and geomorphologic survey, geomechanic characterization was carried out, according to RMR and SMR classifications. This rating gave a prediction of slope behaviour, in fairly good agreement with the real observed one.

Stability numerical analysis was carried out for the main cut slopes, based upon the Limit Equilibrium Method. First of all, the deterministic factor of safety was computed using the mean values of parameters. After that, a simulation technique based upon the Monte Carlo Method was applied in order to obtain factor of safety distributions. The probability of failure was estimated as P(F<1).

Finally, results from deterministic and probabilistic approaches were compared. The effectiveness of different possible remedial measures was highlighted by means of a sensitivity analysis, which showed that the more important parameters in the study area are the geometrical ones (height, slope and failure plane angles). The final technical solutions adopted are briefly outlined.     

Isotope geochemistry of Paleoproterozoic metacarbonates from Itatuba,Borborema Province,Northeastern Brazil: Evidence of marble melting within a collisional suture

Strongly-deformed marbles may be easily confused with linear and elongated carbonatite intrusions. Both rocks may present similar texture and foliation to the host rock, or even cross cutting field relationships, which could be interpreted either as igneous or high-grade metamorphosed marble. Diagnostic criteria are even more complex when there is evidence of melting of the metasedimentary carbonate rock, such as has been described in the Himalayas and in the Eastern Ghats, India.In the Alto Moxotó Terrane, a high-grade gneissic domain of the Borborema Province, Northeastern Brazil, there are metacarbonates associated with banded gneisses and different metaplutonic rocks. Field evidence indicates the absence of other metasedimentary rocks associated with these marbles, thus suggesting that these carbonates were separated from other siliciclastic metasedimentary rocks. The presence of marble also suggests that it may represent the initial stage of a crustal carbon recycling into the mantle. These marbles present many field similarities to carbonatites (e.g., fluid-flow structure) and, together with metagranites and metamafic intrusions, may represent a major collisional tectonic suture.A detailed study of the carbon, oxygen and strontium isotopic composition of these marbles is presented. This study aims to identify the origin of the different isotopic components. It is argued that these rocks were subjected to temperature and pressure conditions that were sufficiently high to have melted them. The isotopic data presented here support this interpretation and indicate the mixing of two components: (i) one characterized by radiogenic Sr isotopes and mantle-like carbon isotopes, which is associated with the gneissic and mafic rocks, and (ii) another characterized by low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios and highly positive δ¹³C values. Available geochemical data for the upper Paleoproterozoic indicate that the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of ocean water, varying between 0.7050 (2.25 ± 0.25 Ga) and 0.7047 (1.91 Ga), falls within the lower range of the samples from Itatuba and thus reinforces the interpretation that these marbles are sedimentary-derived and were partially contaminated by interaction with the host gneissic and mafic rocks.     

Association of phosphate with rhyolite glass in marine Neogene tuffs from Patagonia,Argentina

The precipitation/replacement of Ca‐phosphate is a complex process that commonly takes place during the early diagenesis in marine sediments. The unusual occurrence of shallow marine, early diagenetic phosphatic deposits associated with glassy tuffs in the Neogene Gaiman Formation, in the Chubut Province, Patagonia, Argentina, constitutes a good case example for the study of replacement and precipitation of Ca‐phosphate on an unstable substrate. Isocon diagrams illustrate that chemical changes during glass diagenesis include gains in loss on ignition and Ca, and losses of K. These changes are the result of glass hydration during sea water–glass interaction, together with adsorption and diffusion of ions into the bulk shard; combined, these represent an incipient process of volcanic glass replacement by Ca‐phosphate. Subsequent early diagenetic P enrichment in the pore solutions led to phosphate precipitation, associated with pitting on the glass shards and pumice. The associated development of a reactive surface promoted the incorporation of P and Ca into their margins. Lastly, precipitation of calcium phosphate filled the vesicles and other open cavities, inhibiting further glass dissolution. The high porosity and reactivity of the volcanic glass provided an appropriate substrate for phosphate precipitation, leading to the development of authigenic apatite concretions in the volcanic‐glass bearing strata of the Gaiman Formation. This research is of significance for those concerned with marine phosphatic deposits and sheds light on the processes of early diagenetic phosphate precipitation by replacement of an atypical, unstable substrate like hydrated volcanic glass.     

Rapid photo-oxidation of Mn(II) mediated by humic substances

The oxidation of Mn(II) by O₂ to Mn(III) or Mn(IV) is thermodynamically favored under the pH and pO₂ conditions present in most near surface waters, but the kinetics of this reaction are extremely slow. This work investigated whether reactive oxygen species, produced through illumination of humic substances, could oxidize Mn at an environmentally relavent rate. The simulated sunlight illumination of a solution containing 200 μM Mn(II) and 5 mg/L Aldrich humic acid buffered at pH 8.1 produced ∼19 μM of oxidized Mn (MnO_x where x is between one and two) after 45 minutes. The major oxidants reponsible for this reaction appear to be photoproduced superoxide radical anion, O₂⁻, and singlet molecular oxygen, ¹O₂. The dependencies of MnO_x formation on Mn(II), humic acid, and H⁺ concentration were characterized. A kinetic model based largely on published rate constants was established and fit to the experimental data. As expected, analysis of the model indicates that the key reaction rate controlling MnO_x production is the rate of decomposition of a MnO₂⁺ complex formed from the reaction of Mn(II) with O₂⁻. This rate is strongly dependent on the Mn(II) complexing ligands in solution. The MnO_x production in the seawater sample taken from Bodega Bay, USA and spiked with 200 μM Mn(II) was well reproduced by the model. Extrapolations from the model imply that Mn photo-oxidation should be a significant reaction in typical surface seawaters. Calculated rates, 5.8 to 55 pM h⁻¹, are comparable to reported rates of biological Mn oxidation, 0.07 to 89 pM h⁻¹. Four fresh water samples that were spiked with 200 μM Mn(II) also showed significant MnO_x production. Based on these results, it appears that Mn photo-oxidation could constitute a significant, and apparently unrecognized geochemical pathway in natural waters.     

Geophysical investigation using resistivity and GPR methods: a case study of a lubricant oil waste disposal area in the city of Ribeirão Preto,São Paulo,Brazil

Geophysics has been shown to be effective in identifying areas contaminated by waste disposal, contributing to the greater efficiency of soundings programs and the installation of monitoring wells. In the study area, four trenches were constructed with a total volume of about 25,000 m³. They were almost totally filled with re-refined lubricating oil waste for approximately 25 years. No protection liners were used in the bottoms and laterals of the disposal trenches. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the potential of the resistivity and ground penetrating radar (GPR) methods in characterizing the contamination of this lubricant oil waste disposal area in Ribeirão Preto, SP, situated on the geological domain of the basalt spills of the Serra Geral Formation and the sandstones of the Botucatu Formation. Geophysical results were shown in 2D profiles. The geophysical methods used enabled the identification of geophysical anomalies, which characterized the contamination produced by the trenches filled with lubricant oil waste. Conductive anomalies (smaller than 185 Ωm) immediately below the trenches suggest the action of bacteria in the hydrocarbons, as has been observed in several sites contaminated by hydrocarbons in previously reported cases in the literature. It was also possible to define the geometry of the trenches, as evidenced by the GPR method. Direct sampling (chemical analysis of the soil and the water in the monitoring well) confirmed the contamination. In the soil analysis, low concentrations of several polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were found, mainly naphthalene and phenanthrene. In the water samples, an analysis verified contamination of the groundwater by lead (Pb). The geophysical methods used in the investigation provided an excellent tool for environmental characterization in this study of a lubricant oil waste disposal area, and could be applied in the study of similar areas.