Reducing systematic errors by empirically correcting model errors

A methodology for the correction of systematic errors in a simplified atmospheric general‐circulation model is proposed. First, a method for estimating initial tendency model errors is developed, based on a 4‐dimensional variational assimilation of a long‐analysed dataset of observations in a simple quasi‐geostrophic baroclinic model. Then, a time variable potential vorticity source term is added as a forcing to the same model, in order to parameterize subgrid‐scale processes and unrepresented physical phenomena. This forcing term consists in a (large‐scale) flow dependent parametrization of the initial tendency model error computed by the variational assimilation. The flow dependency is given by an analogues technique which relies on the analysis dataset. Such empirical driving causes a substantial improvement of the model climatology, reducing its systematic error and improving its high frequency variability. Low‐frequency variability is also more realistic and the model shows a better reproduction of Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes. A link between the large‐scale flow and the model error is found only in the Euro‐Atlantic sector, other mechanisms being probably the origin of model error in other areas of the globe.     

Icefish Adaptations to Climate Change on the South Georgia Island Shelf (Sub-Antarctic)

Icefish populations continue to decline. Historical as well as current over-exploitations of stocks aggravated by climate change are frequently seen as res     

Northern Adriatic phytoplankton response to short Po River discharge pulses during summer stratified conditions

A 275‐km‐long transversel Northern Adriatic profile from the mouth of the Po River (Italian Adriatic coast) to the Kvarner region (Croatian coastal island area) was investigated in three successive case studies in August 2008, 2009 and 2010. The short Po River pulses in August result in the surface advection of riverine water, nutrients and phytoplankton from the western to the eastern side of the Adriatic. This surface spreading exhibits inter‐annual variability depending on the riverine discharge in the preceding period. The Po River discharge pulse in August 2010 in particular resulted in an extraordinary tongue‐like advection of riverine water, nutrients, and phytoplankton towards the Eastern Adriatic coast. The phenomenon was detected using both satellite imagery and classical oceanographic measurements. In the advective water, toxic dinoflagellates were most abundant in August 2010, when the influence of the Po was greatest.     

Influence of discrete step size on wind setup component of storm surge

Open coast storm surge water levels consist of wind setup due to wind shear at the water surface; a wave setup component caused by wind induced waves transferring momentum to the water column; an atmospheric pressure head component due to the atmospheric pressure deficit over the spatial extent of the storm system; a Coriolis forced setup or setdown component due to the effects of the rotation of the earth acting on the wind driven alongshore current at the coast; a possible seiche component due to resonance effects initiated by moving wind system, and, if astronomical tides are present, an astronomical tide component (although the tide is typically considered to be a forced astronomical event and not really a direct part of the external wind-driven meteorological component of storm surge). Typically the most important component of a storm surge is the wind setup component, especially on the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico shorelines. In many approaches to storm surge modeling, a constant depth approximation is invoked over a limited step size in the computational domain. The use of a constant depth approximation has received little attention in the literature although can be very important to the resulting magnitude of the computed storm surge. The importance of discrete step size to the wind setup storm surge component is considered herein with a simple case computation of the wind setup component on a linear slope offshore profile. The present study findings show that the constant depth approximation to wind setup storm surge estimation is biased on the low side (except in extremely shallow water depths) and can provide large errors if discrete step size is not sufficiently resolved. Guidance has been provided on the error that one might encounter for various step sizes on different slopes.     

Extreme value estimates for arbitrary bandwidth Gaussian processes using the analytic envelope

A procedure is presented for the estimation of extreme values of stationary Gaussian random processes with arbitrary bandwidths. This approach is based on the analytic envelope defined by the Hilbert Transform; this envelope is Rayleigh distributed regardless of bandwidth. For experimentally derived data that has been converted into digital form, the Hilbert Transform is approximated using algorithms implemented on a digital computer to produce samples of the envelope's time history. Next, the degree of correlation between these envelope samples is taken into account using a method developed from simulation studies of a series of synthetic Gaussian time histories with varying bandwidths. Once this correlation effect has been estimated, the standard methods of order statistics are applied to these samples using the Rayleigh probability density function. Examples of applying this procedure to experimentally derived data are presented.     

Consideration of the oasis analogy for chemosynthetic communities at Gulf of Mexico hydrocarbon vents

The analogy between desert oasis and deep-sea chemosynthetic community arose from the biomass contrast between vents and the relatively depauperate background benthic fauna. Fully developed, the analogy helps pose questions about interactions with the background fauna with respect to resources, colonization, and persistence. The chemosynthetic sites of the Gulf of Mexico provide an opportunity to consider possible interactions between vent and nonvent fauna over a 3000-m depth range. It is postulated that deep chemosynthetic communities require the operation of geochemical transporting and concentrating processes to overcome low levels of in situ methane and sulfide production. Clathrate reservoirs may serve these functions. A few chemosynthetic species at the Gulf of Mexico upper slope sites are related to shallow-water sulfide species, but it can be speculated that the dominant chemosynthetic fauna may have originated in a wide spread deep sulfide biome of the Cretaceous. Generic endemism of consumers is low in Gulf of Mexico sites, suggesting a high level of colonization from the surrounding benthos. Chemosynthetic communities may avoid excessive colonization by predators in spite of the apparent food limitation of the surrounding benthos due to toxicity or an evolutionary mechanism selecting against specialized predators. The abundance of large predators is related to the composition of the surrounding benthos and is high at the Gulf of Mexico upper slope sites. Exclusion of chemosyntheic communities from shallower depths may be due to excessive predation by generalists.     

A wave model for the Great Barrier Reef

A new wind wave generation model, WAMGBR, is presented that has been adapted from WAM especially for use in the complex geometry of the Great Barrier Reef. A technique (reef parameterization) has been presented that incorporates sub-grid scale dissipation caused by coral reefs. Three other improvements to WAM have been proposed. An explicit/implicit finite difference scheme has been implemented that allows for more efficient modelling (longer time steps) while maintaining diffusive characteristics that are at least as good as those of WAM. An offset in discrete angles creates more uniform diffusive characteristics. And, a transformed spherical coordinate system allows for more efficient grid sizes and smaller grid dependent refraction. Comparisons between modelling techniques and between model and measured data show that WAMGBR produces very good results in the difficult challenge of modelling both non-cyclonic and tropical cyclone waves in the geographically complex environment of the Great Barrier Reef.     

Sonographs of submarine sediment failure caused by the 1980 earthquake off northern California

In 1980, a large earthquake caused extensive sediment failure on the shallow continental shelf off the Klamath River in northern California. Side-scan sonography was used to complement detailed geophysical profiling in identifying specific features and resolving modes of failure. The features include a nearly flat failure terrace mantled with sand boils, collapse craters and sediment flows, and bounded on the seaward side by a meandering continuous toe ridge. Seaward of the terrace lies a compression zone delineated by small pressure ridges. Our findings indicate a temporal progression of failure from lique-faction of shallow subsurface sand to lateral spread of intact blocks to sediment collapse and flow.