Large dam-reservoir systems: guidelines and tools to estimate loads resulting from natural hazards

This paper examines hydrodynamic pressure diagrams due to earthquakes acting on distinct configurations of the upstream face of a dam, considering the reservoir length and different bathymetries of the reservoir bottom. Two suitable mathematical models are used to obtain the dynamic pressure on the dam, and the reservoir free surface oscillation. Conceptual mathematical models are proposed to study the impact of a landslide triggered by an earthquake, and its progress into the reservoir. The waves formed when a landslide advances into the reservoir are tested with the help of laboratory results. These waves and their propagation in the reservoir are studied using experimental data and numerical results, including wave-type analyses based on dimensionless parameters. Two distinct 1DH and 2DV numerical models based on different mathematical formulations are tested. A discussion of physical and numerical results is detailed in a general risk context and uncertainty associated with the input data in a deterministic model. Numerical simulations are performed for the upper and lower limits of the sliding mass velocity diagram which is obtained as a result of the intrinsic uncertainty of the stochastic nature of the friction angle. Finally, the findings are discussed and some conclusions drawn.     

A simple non‐linear analytical relationship between aerosol accumulation number and sub‐micron volume, explaining their observed ratio in the clean and polluted marine boundary layer

We propose an analytical expression for the relation between aerosol accumulation number and sub‐micron volume over the marine boundary layer (MBL), based on a simple balance equation. By providing appropriate source and sink terms which account for entrainment, coagulation, in‐cloud scavenging and condensational growth, the model is able to reproduce the observed ratio between MBL particles larger than 80 nm diameter (as a proxy for accumulation mode number) and submicron aerosol volume, from freshly polluted to background conditions. Entrainment and coagulation are essential in predicting the observed ratio. Budget and lifetime calculations show that, due to relatively low source rates of oceanic non‐sea‐salt‐sulfate and sea‐salt, the anthropogenic signature in aerosol volume remains significant even after 8 days of MBL transport.     

Multiwavelength observations of blazars: a summary

Because of their broad-band nature, multiwavelength observations of blazars are crucial to constrain the emission mechanisms, structure, and physical quantities of the inner jet on parsec and sub-parsec scales. Here I briefly review selected multiwavelength observations of blazars with a particular emphasis on sources detected at GeV and TeV gamma-rays. Their properties are discussed in the frame of the blazar “luminosity sequence”.     

The role of cryptogams in runoff and erosion control on bariland in the Nepal Middle Hills of the Southern Himalaya

Cryptogams are communities of non-vascular plants that live on the soil surface. Numerous functions have been attributed to these crusts, including changes in soil fertility and nutrient status, soil hydrology and soil erosion. Most significant for this paper is the reported benefit of cryptogams in reducing soil erosion by water in semi-arid areas. However, to date there have been few attempts to understand the soil conservation value of cryptogams in subsistence agricultural systems or in humid mountain environments. This paper investigates the potential of cryptogams in soil erosion by water on agricultural hillslope terraces (bariland) in the Nepal Middle Hills of the southern monsoonal Himalaya. The research is significant because the loss of fertile topsoil is considered by some to be the biggest threat to the livelihoods of subsistence farmers in the area in the medium and long term. The current study was conducted in the field between two of the weeding events that take place under maize cover, grown in the traditional manner. Three groundcover types which represented (i) maize only (types A), (ii) maize and weed cover (types B), and (iii) maize and cryptogam cover (types C) were monitored utilizing multiple microerosion plots. Measurements of runoff and soil loss data were collected sequentially on a storm-by-storm basis throughout the monitored period from 24 July 1997 to 29 August 1997. Measurements of infiltration rates were also taken on each of the groundcover types at selected times. Results collected from the erosion plots demonstrate that runoff and soil losses over distances of <2 m can be significantly reduced by up to 50 per cent with cryptogam cover, compared to maize-only canopies. Mean runoff for all storm events sampled from plot types A, B and C were 3·4 l m⁻², 1·6 l m⁻² and 1·5 l m⁻² respectively. For soil loss, the results were 21·7 g m⁻², 11·3 g m⁻² and 10·2 g m⁻² respectively. Therefore, cryptogams would appear to offer a similar degree of protection to the soil surface from runoff and raindrop erosion, to that afforded by weed cover. Weed and cryptogam covers protect the soil surface from rainfall kinetic energies and work to preserve surface microtopographies, depressional storage and surface water detention. Terminal infiltration rates taken at the end of the monitored period showed that well developed maize- and cryptogam-covered soil surfaces (types C) have a mean terminal infiltration rate of 35·0 mm h⁻¹ compared to 44·5 mm h⁻¹ for comparable maize- and weed-covered soil surfaces (types B), and 15·5 mm h⁻¹ for maize-only soil surfaces (types A). These results show that cryptogams and weeds also have relatively higher infiltration rates than comparable maize-only covered plots, devoid of groundcover. The findings in this study may have implications for traditional weed management practices used by local hill farmers, which often destroy cryptogam soil coatings two to three times during the maize growing period. However, further work needs to be done to ascertain farmers' understandings of cryptogams. It is hoped that conservationists will benefit from incorporating cryptogams into the design of future soil erosion studies relating to development programmes. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Genesis of the mafic impact melt rock in the northwest sector of the Vredefort Dome,South Africa

Genesis and emplacement of Vredefort Granophyre, the impact melt rock exposed on the Vredefort Dome, the erosional remnant of the central uplift of the Vredefort impact structure, South Africa, have long been debated. This debate was recently reinvigorated by the discovery that besides the previously known felsic variety of >66 wt% SiO₂, a second, somewhat more mafic phase of <66 wt% SiO₂ occurs along a Granophyre dike on farms Kopjeskraal and Eldorado in the northwest sector of the dome. Two hypotheses have been put forward to explain the genesis and emplacement of this second phase: (1) successive injections of impact melt into extensional fractures opened in the course of central uplift formation/crater modification, with melts of distinct compositions derived from a differentiating impact melt body in the crater, and (2) generation of the more mafic phase as a product of admixture/assimilation of a mafic country rock component, either the so-called epidiorite of possible Ventersdorp Supergroup affiliation or the Dominion Group meta-lava (DGL), to Felsic Granophyre. In the latter model, contamination with mafic country rock would have occurred during downward intrusion and stoping into and below the crater floor. The so-called Mafic Granophyre has previously only ever been sampled on a single site (Farm Kopjeskraal). In this study, samples of Granophyre occurring along the southerly extension of this dike on farm Rensburgdrif, and from a second dike on the Rietkuil property further southwest were investigated by field work, and petrographic, geochemical, and isotopic analysis. The mafic phase indeed occurs in the interior of the dike at Rensburgdrif, and also on Rietkuil. New geochemical and Sr-Nd isotope data support the hypothesis that the Mafic Granophyre composition represents a mixture between Felsic Granophyre and a mafic country rock. A 20% admixture of epidiorite or DGL to Felsic Granophyre provides an excellent match for the chemical composition of the Mafic Granophyre. The Sr-Nd isotope data indicate that this admixture likely involved the epidiorite component rather than DGL. Together with earlier Sr-Nd-Os-Se isotopic data, and other geochemical data, these results further support formation of the Mafic Granophyre by local assimilation/admixture of epidiorite to Felsic Granophyre.     

Simulation Study of a Robust Algorithm for Soil Moisture and Surface Roughness Estimation Using L‐Band Radar Backscatter

Abstract

Various inversion algorithms have been developed to obtain estimates of soil moisture and surface roughness parameters from multifrequency, multiangle, and multipolarization radar reflectances. Since the penetration depth for radar signals increases with wavelength, an inversion algorithm using widely separated frequencies does not yield comparable probing depths. Furthermore, existing algorithms assume a linear relationship between the radar backscatter coefficient (in dB) and soil parameters, such as the volumetric soil moisture, soil surface roughness and surface slope. This assumption is valid only over a narrow range of soil parameters, thereby restricting its operational use under realistic conditions. Our research specifically explored the use of inversion algorithms based on L‐Band radar reflectances at 1 GHz and 2 GHz frequencies in order to retain relatively consistent probing depths. In order to extend the range of applicability, a non‐linear exponential‐type relationship was developed between radar reflectance at a specified frequency, polarization and incidence angle combination, and soil parameters of interest, viz., soil moisture, surface roughness, and surface slope. An over‐constrained inversion algorithm using a six‐parameter combination was found to yield relatively accurate estimates of soil parameters over a wide range of soil conditions even in the presence of system error.     

Simulating the effects of social networks on a population’s hurricane evacuation participation

Scientists have noted that recent shifts in the earth’s climate have resulted in more extreme weather events, like stronger hurricanes. Such powerful storms disrupt societal function and result in a tremendous number of casualties, as demonstrated by recent hurricane experience in the US Planning for and facilitating evacuations of populations forecast to be impacted by hurricanes is perhaps the most effective strategy for reducing risk. A potentially important yet relatively unexplored facet of people’s evacuation decision-making involves the interpersonal communication processes that affect whether at-risk residents decide to evacuate. While previous research has suggested that word-of-mouth effects are limited, data supporting these assertions were collected prior to the widespread adoption of digital social media technologies. This paper argues that the influence of social network effects on evacuation decisions should be revisited given the potential of new social media for impacting and augmenting information dispersion through real-time interpersonal communication. Using geographic data within an agent-based model of hurricane evacuation in Bay County, Florida, we examine how various types of social networks influence participation in evacuation. It is found that strategies for encouraging evacuation should consider the social networks influencing individuals during extreme events, as it can be used to increase the number of evacuating residents.     

An Analysis of the Commuting and Jobs–Housing Patterns of Older Adult Workers

Many researchers have explored the relationships between land use and transportation via the jobs–housing balance concept. This type of research involves the disaggregation of commuter groups to understand variances in the relationship between land use and transportation outcomes. Disaggregation by commuter age has not been considered, however. To address this gap, we analyze spatially and temporally disaggregate census data for five areas in Florida. Using several jobs–housing balance metrics we compare and contrast the outcomes of different commuter age groups, across different geographies, and over time (2002–2011). Generally, commutes vary more by region than they do by any age category of commuter. Most of the differences in the commute metrics among the older age group tend to depend on where those commuters live. The results also suggest that there are more efficient and less sprawling commuting landscapes for older workers located near other older workers.     

New high‐resolution age data from the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary indicate rapid,ecologically driven onset of the Cambrian explosion

The replacement of the late Precambrian Ediacaran biota by morphologically disparate animals at the beginning of the Phanerozoic was a key event in the history of life on Earth, the mechanisms and the time‐scales of which are not entirely understood. A composite section in Namibia providing biostratigraphic and chemostratigraphic data bracketed by radiometric dating constrains the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary to 538.6–538.8 Ma, more than 2 Ma younger than previously assumed. The U–Pb‐CA‐ID TIMS zircon ages demonstrate an ultrashort time frame for the LAD of the Ediacaran biota to the FAD of a complex, burrowing Phanerozoic biota represented by trace fossils to a 410 ka time window of 538.99 ± 0.21 Ma to 538.58 ± 0.19 Ma. The extremely short duration of the faunal transition from Ediacaran to Cambrian biota within less than 410 ka supports models of ecological cascades that followed the evolutionary breakthrough of increased mobility at the beginning of the Phanerozoic.     

An upwelling filament off southwest Iberia: Effect on the chlorophyll a and nutrient export

The present paper describes the chemical and biological characteristics of an upwelling filament off southern Iberia in October 2004, based on a total of 42 CTD casts, along with ADCP velocity measurements distributed by an almost regular grid of 15 km mean spacing. Stations were sampled from the surface to a maximum depth of 400 dbar, for nutrients (nitrate, phosphate and silicate) and chlorophyll a determination. The effect of cross-shelf exchange of nutrients and chlorophyll a between the coastal and oceanic waters was also investigated. Data revealed that, during the cruise conducted under relaxed winds, a relatively small filament was formed down to 75 m. However, an amount of 180 t of chlorophyll a was estimated there accompanied by low nutrient concentrations. The observed water properties reveal that SW Iberia is similar to NW Iberia, showing the continuity of the Canary Upwelling System along the Iberian Peninsula, one of poorest upwelling systems of the oceanic eastern boundaries. Nevertheless, the amounts of chlorophyll and nutrients transported through the filament are significant, revealing that those play a key role in the seaward export of matter with an important impact on the regional oceanography of this region. Considering the periods of strong upwelling events and the extent of their duration along the year, the amounts of exported matter must be hugely increased and responsible for the high productivity of these waters.