A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe

Traditional impact models combine exposure in the form of scenarios and sensitivity in the form of parameters, providing potential impacts of global change as model outputs. However, adaptive capacity is rarely addressed in these models. This paper presents the first spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity, which can be combined with impact models to support quantitative vulnerability assessment. The adaptive capacity model is based on twelve socio-economic indicators, each of which is projected into the future using four global environmental change scenarios, and then aggregated into an adaptive capacity index in a stepwise approach using fuzzy set theory. The adaptive capacity model provides insight into broad patterns of adaptive capacity across Europe, the relative importance of the various determinants of adaptive capacity, and how adaptive capacity changes over time under different social and economic assumptions. As such it provides a context for the implementation of specific adaptation measures. This could improve integrated assessment models and could be extended to other regions. However, there is a clear need for a better theoretical understanding of the adaptive capacity concept, and its relationship to the actual implementation of adaptation measures. This requires more empirical research and coordinated meta-analyses across regions and economic sectors, and the development of bottom-up modelling techniques that can incorporate human decision making.     

Global models meet global policy: How can global and regional modellers connect with environmental policy makers? What has hindered them? What has helped?

Global modelling has developed over the last two decades largely because of the needs of policymaking, yet it has not yet realized its full potential in assisting policymaking. While the first wave of global models in the 1970s had a clear influence on policy discourse, these models were eventually undermined by attacks on their scientific underpinning. The second wave of global models in the 1990s had a stronger scientific footing than the first wave because they were built on a much larger base of knowledge about the global system. Although the improved scientific credibility of global models has increased their use in policymaking, a more subtle yet important factor has been the direct contact of global model developers with policymakers. Taking an example from the field of climate policy, a global modelling team has conducted formal workshops with a group of international climate policymakers with the aim to increase the relevance of modeling activities to policy issues. This interaction has inspired policyrelevant uses of a global model (IMAGE 2) and spawned the development of a new policy concept ‘Safe Emission Corridors’, which has been discussed in the frame of international climate negotiations. A preliminary conclusion is that both improved scientific credibility and improved interaction between modelers and policymakers are critical ingredients for enhancing the policy-relevance of global models.     

Variability of C02 distributions and sea-air fluxes in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific during the 199–1994 El Nin˜o

As part of the U.S. JGOFS Program and the NOAA Ocean-Atmosphere Carbon Exchange Study (DACES), measurements of C02 partial pressure were made in the atmosphere and in the surface waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific during the boreal spring and autumn of 1992, the spring of 1993, and the spring and autumn of 1994. Surface-water pC0₂ data indicate significant diurnal, seasonal, and interannual variations. The largest variations were associated with the 1991–1994 ENSO event, which reached maximum intensity in the spring of 1992. The lower values of surface-water ΔpC0₂ observed during the 1991–1994 ENSO period were the result of the combined effects of both remotely and locally forced physical processes. The warm pool, which reached a maximum eastward extent in January-February of 1992, began in September of 1991 as a series of westerly wind events lasting about 30 days. Each wind event initiated an eastward propagating Kelvin wave which caused a deepening of the thermocline. By the end of January 1992 the thermocline was at its maximum depth, so that the upwelled water was warm and C0₂-depleted. In April of the same year, the local winds were weaker than normal, and the upwelling was from shallow depths. These changes resulted in a lower-than-normal C02 flux to the atmosphere. The results show that for the one-year period from the fall of 1991 until the fall of 1992, approximately 0.3 GtC were released to the atmosphere; 0.6 GtC were released in 1993, and 0.7 GtC in 1994, in good agreement with the model results of Ciais et al. [Science,269,1098–1102;J. Geophys. Res.,100, 5051–5070]. The net reduction of the ocean-atmosphere C02 flux during the 1991–1994 El Nifio was on the order of 0.8 – 1.2 GtC. Thus, the total amount of C02 sequestered in the equatorial oceans during the prolonged 1991–1994 El Nin˜o period was about 25% higher than the severe El Nin˜o of 1982–1983.     

Characterisation of ground motion recording stations in the Groningen gas field

The seismic hazard and risk analysis for the onshore Groningen gas field requires information about local soil properties, in particular shear-wave velocity (V_S). A fieldwork campaign was conducted at 18 surface accelerograph stations of the monitoring network. The subsurface in the region consists of unconsolidated sediments and is heterogeneous in composition and properties. A range of different methods was applied to acquire in situ V_S values to a target depth of at least 30 m. The techniques include seismic cone penetration tests (SCPT) with varying source offsets, multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) on Rayleigh waves with different processing approaches, microtremor array, cross-hole tomography and suspension P-S logging. The offset SCPT, cross-hole tomography and common midpoint cross-correlation (CMPcc) processing of MASW data all revealed lateral variations on length scales of several to tens of metres in this geological setting. SCPTs resulted in very detailed V_S profiles with depth, but represent point measurements in a heterogeneous environment. The MASW results represent V_S information on a larger spatial scale and smooth some of the heterogeneity encountered at the sites. The combination of MASW and SCPT proved to be a powerful and cost-effective approach in determining representative V_S profiles at the accelerograph station sites. The measured V_S profiles correspond well with the modelled profiles and they significantly enhance the ground motion model derivation. The similarity between the theoretical transfer function from the V_S profile and the observed amplification from vertical array stations is also excellent.     

The local impacts of climate change in the Ferlo, Western Sahel

Recent increases in the accuracy of climate models have enhanced the possibilities for analyzing the impacts of climate change on society. This paper explores how the local, economic impacts of climate change can be modeled for a specific eco-region, the Western Sahel. The people in the Sahel are highly dependent on their natural resource base, and these resources are highly vulnerable to climate change, in particular to changes in rainfall. Climate models project substantial changes in rainfall in the Sahel in the coming 50 years, with most models predicting a reduction in rainfall. To connect climate change to changes in ecosystem productivity and local income, we construct an ecological–economic model that incorporates rangeland dynamics, grazing and livestock prices. The model shows that decreased rainfall in the Sahel will considerably reduce local incomes, in particular if combined with increases in rainfall variability. Adaptation to these climate change projections is possible if reductions in rainfall are followed by destocking to reach efficient grazing levels. However, while such a strategy is optimal from the perspective of society, the stocking rate is determined by individual pastoralists that face few incentives to destock.     

Increase in anthropogenic CO2 in the Atlantic Ocean in the last two decades

Data from the first systematic survey of inorganic carbon parameters on a global scale, the GEOSECS program, are compared with those collected during WOCE/JGOFS to study the changes in carbon and other geochemical properties, and anthropogenic CO₂ increase in the Atlantic Ocean from the 1970s to the early 1990s. This first data-based estimate of CO₂ increase over this period was accomplished by adjusting the GEOSECS data set to be consistent with recent high-quality carbon data. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and extended Multiple Linear Regression (eMLR) analyses to these carbon data are applied by regressing DIC with potential temperature, salinity, AOU, silica, and PO₄ in three latitudinal regions for the western and eastern basins in the Atlantic Ocean. The results from MLR (and eMLR provided in parentheses) indicate that the mean anthropogenic CO₂ uptake rate in the western basin is 0.70 (0.53) mol m^?2 yr^?1 for the region north of 15°N; 0.53 (0.36) mol m^?2 yr^?1 for the equatorial region between 15°N and 15°S; and 0.83 (0.35) mol m^?2 yr^?1 in the South Atlantic south of 15°S. For the eastern basin an estimate of 0.57 (0.45) mol m^?2 yr^?1 is obtained for the equatorial region, and 0.28 (0.34) mol m^?2 yr^?1 for the South Atlantic south of 15°S. The results of using eMLR are systematically lower than those from MLR method in the western basin. The anthropogenic CO₂ increase is also estimated in the upper thermocline from salinity normalized DIC after correction for AOU along the isopycnal surfaces. For these depths the results are consistent with the CO₂ uptake rates derived from both MLR and eMLR methods.     

Sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to CO2-induced climate change: Comparison of four scenarios based on general circulation models

The potential impacts of CO₂-induced climate change on terrestrial carbon storage was estimated using the Holdridge Life-Zone Classification and four climate change scenarios derived from general circulation models. Carbon values were assigned to life-zones and their associated soils from published studies. All four scenarios suggest an increase in area occupied by forests although details of predicted patterns vary among the scenarios. There is a poleward shift of the forested zones, with an increase in the areal extent of tropical forests and a shift of the boreal forest zone into the region currently occupied by tundra. Terrestrial carbon storage increased from 0.4% (8.5 Gt) to 9.5% (180.5 Gt) above estimates for present conditions. These changes represent a potential reduction of 4 to 85 ppm on elevated atmospheric CO₂ levels.     

Increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the Pacific Ocean over the last two decades

The multiple-parameter linear regression method (Monitoring global ocean carbon inventories. Ocean Observing System Development Panel, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 1995, 54pp; Global Biogeochem. Cycles 13 (1999) 179) is used to compare inorganic carbon data from the GEOSECS CO₂ survey in the Pacific Ocean in 1973 to the WOCE/JGOFS global CO₂ survey in the 1990s. A model of total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) as a function of five variables (AOU, θ, S, Si, and PO₄) has been developed from the recent CO₂ survey data (namely CGC91 and CGC96) in the Pacific Ocean. After correcting for a systematic DIC offset of −30.3±7 μmol kg⁻¹ from the GEOSECS data, the residual DIC based on this model as computed from GEOSECS data has been used to estimate the anthropogenic CO₂ penetration in the Pacific Ocean. In the Northeast Pacific, we obtained an increase of CO₂ of 21.3±7.9 mol m⁻² over the period from GEOSECS in 1973 to CGC91 in 1991. This gives a mean anthropogenic CO₂ uptake rate of 1.3±0.5 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹ over this 17 year time period. In the South Pacific, north of 50°S between 180° and 120°W region, the integrated anthropogenic CO₂ inventory is estimated to be 19.7±5.7 mol m⁻² over the period from GEOSECS in 1974 to CGC96 in 1996. The equivalent mean CO₂ uptake rate is estimated to be 0.9±0.3 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹ over the 22 years. These results are compared with the isopycnal method (Nature 396 (1998) 560) to estimate the anthropogenic CO₂ signal in the Northeast Pacific (30°N, 152°W) at the crossover region between CGC91 and GEOSECS. The results of the isopycnal method are consistent with those derived from the MLR method. Both methods show an increase in anthropogenic CO₂ inventory in the ocean over two decades that is consistent with the increase expected if the ocean uptake has kept pace with the atmospheric CO₂ increase.     

Quantifying the effectiveness of climate change mitigation through forest plantations and carbon sequestration with an integrated land-use model

Background

Carbon plantations are introduced in climate change policy as an option to slow the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations. Here we present a methodology to evaluate the potential effectiveness of carbon plantations. The methodology explicitly considers future long-term land-use change around the world and all relevant carbon (C) fluxes, including all natural fluxes. Both issues have generally been ignored in earlier studies.

Results

Two different baseline scenarios up to 2100 indicate that uncertainties in future land-use change lead to a near 100% difference in estimates of carbon sequestration potentials. Moreover, social, economic and institutional barriers preventing carbon plantations in natural vegetation areas decrease the physical potential by 75–80% or more. Nevertheless, carbon plantations can still considerably contribute to slowing the increase in the atmospheric CO₂ concentration but only in the long term. The most conservative set of assumptions lowers the increase of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration in 2100 by a 27 ppm and compensates for 5–7% of the total energy-related CO₂ emissions. The net sequestration up to 2020 is limited, given the short-term increased need for agricultural land in most regions and the long period needed to compensate for emissions through the establishment of the plantations. The potential is highest in the tropics, despite projections that most of the agricultural expansion will be in these regions. Plantations in high latitudes as Northern Europe and Northern Russia should only be established if the objective to sequester carbon is combined with other activities.

Conclusion

Carbon sequestration in plantations can play an important role in mitigating the build-up of atmospheric CO₂. The actual magnitude depends on natural and management factors, social barriers, and the time frame considered. In addition, there are a number of ancillary benefits for local communities and the environment. Carbon plantations are, however, particularly effective in the long term. Furthermore, plantations do not offer the ultimate solution towards stabilizing CO₂ concentrations but should be part of a broader package of options with clear energy emission reduction measures.