A Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling of Air Temperature over Scandinavia Using the WRF Model

An accurate simulation of air temperature at local scales is crucial for the vast majority of weather and climate applications.In this work,a hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method and a high-resolution dynamical-only downscaling method are applied to daily mean,minimum and maximum air temperatures to investigate the quality of localscale estimates produced by downscaling.These two downscaling approaches are evaluated using station observation data obtained from the Finnish Meteorological Institute over a near-coastal region of western Finland.The dynamical downscaling is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,and the statistical downscaling method implemented is the Cumulative Distribution Function-transform(CDF-t).The CDF-t is trained using 20 years of WRF-downscaled Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data over the region at a 3-km spatial resolution for the central month of each season.The performance of the two methods is assessed qualitatively,by inspection of quantile-quantile plots,and quantitatively,through the Cramer-von Mises,mean absolute error,and root-mean-square error diagnostics.The hybrid approach is found to provide significantly more skillful forecasts of the observed daily mean and maximum air temperatures than those of the dynamical-only downscaling(for all seasons).The hybrid method proves to be less computationally expensive,and also to give more skillful temperature forecasts(at least for the Finnish near-coastal region).     

Reinterpretation of the Ordovician rotations in NW Argentina and Northern Chile: a consequence of the Precordillera collision?

Early Paleozoic paleomagnetic data from NW Argentina and Northern Chile have shown large systematic rotations within two domains: one composed of the Western Puna that yields very large (up to 80°) counter-clockwise rotations, and the other formed by the Famatina Ranges and the Eastern Puna that shows (~40°) clockwise rotations around vertical axes. In several locations, lack of significant rotations in younger rocks constrains this kinematic pattern to have occurred during the Paleozoic. Previous tectonic models have explained these rotations as indicative of rigid-body rotations of large para-autochthonous crustal blocks or terranes. A different but simple tectonic model that accounts for this pattern is presented in which rotations are associated to crustal shortening and tectonic escape due to the collision of the allochthonous terrane of Precordillera in the Late Ordovician. This collision should have generated dextral shear zones in the back arc region of the convergent SW Gondwana margin, where systematic domino-like clockwise rotations of small crustal blocks accommodate crustal shortening. The Western Puna block, bordering the Precordillera terrane to the north, might have rotated counterclockwise as an independent microplate due to tectonic escape processes, in a fashion similar to the present-day relationship between the Anatolia block and the Arabian microplate.     

Generalized Bootstrap Method for Assessment of?Uncertainty in Semivariogram Inference

The semivariogram and its related function, the covariance, play a central role in classical geostatistics for modeling the average continuity of spatially correlated attributes. Whereas all methods are formulated in terms of the true semivariogram, in practice what can be used are estimated semivariograms and models based on samples. A generalized form of the bootstrap method to properly model spatially correlated data is used to advance knowledge about the reliability of empirical semivariograms and semivariogram models based on a single sample. Among several methods available to generate spatially correlated resamples, we selected a method based on the LU decomposition and used several examples to illustrate the approach. The first one is a synthetic, isotropic, exhaustive sample following a normal distribution, the second example is also a synthetic but following a non-Gaussian random field, and a third empirical sample consists of actual raingauge measurements. Results show wider confidence intervals than those found previously by others with inadequate application of the bootstrap. Also, even for the Gaussian example, distributions for estimated semivariogram values and model parameters are positively skewed. In this sense, bootstrap percentile confidence intervals, which are not centered around the empirical semivariogram and do not require distributional assumptions for its construction, provide an achieved coverage similar to the nominal coverage. The latter cannot be achieved by symmetrical confidence intervals based on the standard error, regardless if the standard error is estimated from a parametric equation or from bootstrap.     

Hydrothermal faunal assemblages and habitat characterisation at the Eiffel Tower edifice (Lucky Strike,Mid‐Atlantic Ridge)

The Eiffel Tower edifice is situated in the Lucky Strike hydrothermal vent field at a mean depth of 1690 m on the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge (MAR). At this 11‐m‐high hydrothermal structure, different faunal assemblages, varying in visibly dominant species (mussels and shrimp), in mussel size and in density of mussel coverage, were sampled biologically and chemically. Temperature and sulphide (∑S) were measured on the different types of mussel‐based assemblages and on a shrimp‐dominated assemblage. Temperature was used as a proxy for calculating total concentrations of CH₄. Based on the physico‐chemical measurements, two microhabitats were identified, corresponding to (i) a more variable habitat featuring the greatest fluctuations in environmental variables and (ii) a second, more stable, habitat. The highest temperature variability and the highest maximum recorded temperatures were found in the assemblages visibly inhabited by alvinocaridid shrimp and dense mussel beds of large Bathymodiolus azoricus, whereas the less variable habitats were inhabited by smaller‐sized mussels with increasing bare surface in between. Larger mussels appeared to consume more ∑S compared with smaller‐sized (<1 cm) individuals and thus had a greater influence on the local chemistry. In addition, the mussel size was shown to be significantly positively correlated to temperature and negatively to the richness of the associated macrofauna. The presence of microbial mats was not linked to specific environmental conditions, but had a negative effect on the presence and abundance of macro‐fauna, notably gastropods. Whereas some taxa or species are found in only one of the two microhabitats, others, such as polychaetes and Mirocaris shrimp, cross the different microhabitats. Temperature was proposed to be a more limiting factor in species distribution than ∑S.     

Larval growth,size, stage duration and recruitment success of a temperate reef fish

Understanding the causes of variation in recruitment of marine fishes has been a central goal for marine ecologists, fishery scientists and resource managers over the last century. Although the idea that recruitment variability is linked to the pelagic environmental conditions that enhance larval growth, survival, and/or delivery is consensual, such relationship is poorly known for most species. In this study we analyzed patterns of recruitment and early life history of a temperate reef fish, Coris julis from the Azores archipelago to test the relationships between early life history and recruitment success over two consecutive years. Growth from hatch to larval age 30 d was the best predictor of recruitment, implying that fast growing larger-at-age larvae have a survival advantage and contribute more to high recruitment, supporting the “bigger-is-better” hypothesis. The “stage-duration” hypothesis and the predictions regarding the relationships between size at age (SAA), size at settlement (SAS) and recruit abundance were also partially supported. The results presented in this study highlight the importance of understanding the early life traits that determine recruitment and larval-survivorship patterns, especially early larval growth, as this may provide a basis for prediction of recruitment and thus management of resources.     

Auroras Observed in Portugal in Late 18th Century Obtained from Printed and Manuscript Meteorological Observations

We present a new catalogue of observations of the aurora borealis at Lisbon, i.e., at low-latitudes, in the late 18th century by Jacob Præ torius and Henrique Schulze, two German artillery officers. Dates of 18 auroras compiled by Præ torius and Schulze are compared with those published in other catalogues for that period. The number of annual auroras observed by the two Germans is then compared with two indices of solar activity showing a very good level of consistency between all time series. Finally, we have assessed the number of auroras observed taking into consideration the phase of the lunar cycle and the geomagnetic latitude of Lisbon.     

The slow rotation of 253 Mathilde

CCD photometry of the NEAR mission fly-by target 253 Mathilde is presented. Measurements taken during 52 nights of observations, from February to June 1995, allow a rotation period of 17.406±0.010 days and a lightcurve amplitude of 0.45±0.02 mag to be determined. A B-V color index of 0.67±0.02 and a V-R of 0.35±0.02 are measured, which are compatible with C-type membership. The determination of the phase relation results in H = 10.28±0.03 and G = 0.12±0.06. Indications that the lightcurve is not strictly singly-periodic are found. A power-spectrum analysis detects a secondary frequency f₂ = 0.0322±0.0010 d⁻¹, which is interpreted as evidence for a complex rotation state.     

Ocean and atmosphere changes in the Caribbean Sea during the twenty-first century using CMIP5 models

Ocean Dynamics - Coastal communities around the Caribbean Sea are vulnerable to global warming impacts, partly because of constraints on their adaptive capacity. We use three climate models...     

Heavy metal sedimentary record in a Galician Ria (NW Spain): background values and recent contamination

Two long sediment cores were sampled at the Ferrol Ria (Galicia, NW Spain) and the heavy metal (Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb and Zn) concentrations measured in order to (i) state accurate background values providing baseline relationships with respect to a reference element and (ii) to investigate the recent metal contamination trends. Background values were found to agree well with the world average values for granite/schists-genisses rocks. However, Cu, Co, Pb and Zn were found to be lower than those previously reported as background values for the Galician Rias. Results emphasize the importance of using baseline relationships with respect to a normalizing element in order to reduce the scattering of data and to allow an accurate statement of background values. The distribution of metals in the cores showed an evident enrichment in the surface layers belonging to the industrial era. Normalized enrichment factors (NEF) for copper and zinc are in the order of 3-5 (certain/severe contamination) in the surface sediments, decreasing with depth. Lead contamination has decreased in the recent years from NEF of 3-7 down to a NEF of 2 (i.e. moderate contamination), probably due to the introduction of unleaded gasolines. Chromium, cobalt and nickel NEFs were always in the <1-2 range indicating null/low contamination by these metals.     

Plastic ingestion in Franciscana dolphins, Pontoporia blainvillei (Gervais and d'Orbigny, 1844), from Argentina

Plastic debris (PD) ingestion was examined in 106 Franciscana dolphins (Pontoporia blainvillei) incidentally captured in artisanal fisheries of the northern coast of Argentina. Twenty-eight percent of the dolphins presented PD in their stomach, but no ulcerations or obstructions were recorded in the digestive tracts. PD ingestion was more frequent in estuarine (34.6%) than in marine (19.2%) environments, but the type of debris was similar. Packaging debris (cellophane, bags, and bands) was found in 64.3% of the dolphins, with a lesser proportion (35.7%) ingesting fishery gear fragments (monofilament lines, ropes, and nets) or of unknown sources (25.0%). PD ingestion correlated with ontogenetic changes in feeding regimes, reaching maximum values in recently weaned dolphins. Because a simultaneous increase in gillnet entanglement and the bioaccumulation of heavy metals take place at this stage, the first months after trophic independence should be considered as a key phase for the conservation of Franciscana dolphin stocks in northern Argentina.