Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China,India, Nepal

Rapidly accelerating climate change in the Himalaya is projected to have major implications for montane species, ecosystems, and mountain farming and pastoral systems. A geospatial modeling approach based on a global environmental stratification is used to explore potential impacts of projected climate change on the spatial distribution of bioclimatic strata and ecoregions within the transboundary Kailash Sacred Landscape (KSL) of China, India and Nepal. Twenty-eight strata, comprising seven bioclimatic zones, were aggregated to develop an ecoregional classification of 12 ecoregions (generally defined by their potential dominant vegetation type), based upon vegetation and landcover characteristics. Projected climate change impacts were modeled by reconstructing the stratification based upon an ensemble of 19 Earth System Models (CIMP5) across four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios (i.e. 63 impact simulations), and identifying the change in spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Large and substantial shifts in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the KSL area by the year 2050, within all bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Over 76 % of the total area may shift to a different stratum, 55 % to a different bioclimatic zone, and 36.6 % to a different ecoregion. Potential impacts include upward shift in mean elevation of bioclimatic zones (357 m) and ecoregions (371 m), decreases in area of the highest elevation zones and ecoregions, large expansion of the lower tropical and sub-tropical zones and ecoregions, and the disappearance of several strata representing unique bioclimatic conditions within the KSL, with potentially high levels of biotic perturbance by 2050, and a high likelihood of major consequences for biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, conservation efforts and sustainable development policies in the region.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

Dissolution–precipitation processes governing the carbonation and silicification of the serpentinite sole of the New Caledonia ophiolite

The weathering of mantle peridotite tectonically exposed to the atmosphere leads commonly to natural carbonation processes. Extensive cryptocrystalline magnesite veins and stock-work are widespread in the serpentinite sole of the New Caledonia ophiolite. Silica is systematically associated with magnesite. It is commonly admitted that Mg and Si are released during the laterization of overlying peridotites. Thus, the occurrence of these veins is generally attributed to a per descensum mechanism that involves the infiltration of meteoric waters enriched in dissolved atmospheric CO₂. In this study, we investigate serpentinite carbonation processes, and related silicification, based on a detailed petrographic and crystal chemical study of serpentinites. The relationships between serpentine and alteration products are described using an original method for the analysis of micro-X-ray fluorescence images performed at the centimeter scale. Our investigations highlight a carbonation mechanism, together with precipitation of amorphous silica and sepiolite, based on a dissolution–precipitation process. In contrast with the per descensum Mg/Si-enrichment model that is mainly concentrated in rock fractures, dissolution–precipitation process is much more pervasive. Thus, although the texture of rocks remains relatively preserved, this process extends more widely into the rock and may represent a major part of total carbonation of the ophiolite.     

Modelling river water temperature using deterministic,empirical, and hybrid formulations in a Mediterranean stream

River water temperature is a common target of water quality models at the watershed scale, owing to its principal role in shaping biogeochemical processes and in stream ecology. Usually, models include physically‐based, deterministic formulations to calculate water temperatures from detailed meteorological information, which usually comes from meteorological stations located far from the river reaches. However, alternative empirical approaches have been proposed, that usually depend on air temperature as master variable. This study explored the performance of a semidistributed water quality application modelling river water temperature in a Mediterranean watershed, using three different approaches. First, a deterministic approach was used accounting for the different heat exchange components usually considered in water temperature models. Second, an empirical approximation was applied using the equilibrium temperature concept, assuming a linear relationship with air temperature. And third, a hybrid approach was constructed, in which the temperature equilibrium concept and the deterministic approach were combined. Results showed that the hybrid approach gave the best results, followed by the empirical approximation. The deterministic formulation gave the worst results. The hybrid approach not only fitted daily river water temperatures, but also adequately modelled the daily temperature range (maximum–minimum daily temperature). Other river water features directly dependent on water temperature, such as river intrusion depth in lentic systems (i.e. the depth at which the river inflow plunges to equilibrate density differences with lake water), were also correctly modelled even at hourly time steps. However, results for the different heat fluxes between river and atmosphere were very unrealistic. Although direct evidence of discrepancies between meteorological drivers measured at the meteorological stations and the actual river microclimate was not found, the use of models including empirical or hybrid formulations depending mainly on air temperature is recommended if only meteorological data from locations far from the river reaches are available. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Convection in large bodies of water open to the atmosphere

Abstract

Convection in large bodies of water open to the atmosphere is studied as a two-layer system, which allows for the accurate modeling of the interfacial boundary conditions. The Biot number associated with the heat transfer across the interface becomes a result of the analysis rather than a condition. The linear and nonlinear analyses yield essentially the same stability results, providing a sharp stability limit.     

Observed intra-seasonal to interannual variability of the upper ocean thermal structure in the southeastern Arabian Sea during 2002–2008

The southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS), located in the Indian Ocean warm pool, is a key-region of the regional climate system. It is suspected to play an important role in the dynamics of the Asian summer monsoon system. The present study reports the salient features derived from a newly harvested observational dataset consisting of repeated fortnightly XBT transects in the SEAS over the period 2002–2008. The fortnightly resolution of such a multi-year record duration is unprecedented in this part of the world ocean and provides a unique opportunity to examine the observed variability of the near-surface thermal structure over a wide spectrum, from intra-seasonal to interannual timescales. We find that most of the variability is trapped in the thermocline, taking the form of upwelling and downwelling motions of the thermal stratification. The seasonal variations are consistent with past studies and confirm the role of the monsoonal wind forcing through linear baroclinic waves (coastally-trapped Kelvin and planetary Rossby waves). Sub-seasonal variability takes the form of anomalous events lasting a few weeks to a few months and occurs at two preferred timescales: in the 30–110 day band, within the frequency domain of the Madden–Julian oscillation and in the 120–180 day band. While this sub-seasonal variability appears fairly barotropic in the offshore region, the sign of the anomaly in the upper thermocline is opposite to that in its lower part on many occasions along the coast. Our dataset also reveals relatively large interannual temperature variations of about 1 °C from 50 to 200 m depth that reflect a considerable year-to-year variability of the magnitude of both upwelling and downwelling events. This study clearly demonstrates the necessity for sustained long-term temperature measurements in the SEAS.     

Some Bianchi-type cosmological models in a new scalar-tensor theory

Bianchi type I, III, V, VI₀, and Kantowski-Sachs type models have been investigated in a scalar tensor theory developed by Saez and Ballester (1985) and Saez (1985). The dynamical behaviour of the models has also been analyzed.     

Ecological niches of Arctic deep-sea copepods: Vertical partitioning,dietary preferences and different trophic levels minimize inter-specific competition

The biodiversity of pelagic deep-sea ecosystems has received growing scientific interest in the last decade, especially in the framework of international marine biodiversity initiatives, such as Census of Marine Life (CoML). While a growing number of deep-sea zooplankton species has been identified and genetically characterized, little information is available on the mechanisms minimizing inter-specific competition and thus allowing closely related species to co-occur in the deep-sea pelagic realm. Focussing on the two dominant calanoid copepod families Euchaetidae and Aetideidae in Fram Strait, Arctic Ocean, the present study strives to characterize ecological niches of co-occurring species, with regard to vertical distribution, dietary composition as derived from lipid biomarkers, and trophic level on the basis of stable isotope signatures. Closely related species were usually restricted to different depth layers, resulting in a multi-layered vertical distribution pattern. Thus, vertical partitioning was an important mechanism to avoid inter-specific competition. Species occurring in the same depth strata usually belonged to different genera. They differed in fatty acid composition and trophic level, indicating different food preferences. Herbivorous Calanus represent major prey items for many omnivorous and carnivorous species throughout the water column. The seasonal and ontogenetic vertical migration of Calanus acts as a short-cut in food supply for pelagic deep-sea ecosystems in the Arctic.     

Assessing the impact of the hydraulic properties of a crusted soil on overland flow modelling at the field scale

Soil surface crusts are widely reported to favour Hortonian runoff, but are not explicitly represented in most rainfall‐runoff models. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of soil surface crusts on infiltration and runoff modelling at two spatial scales, i.e. the local scale and the plot scale. At the local scale, two separate single ring infiltration experiments are undertaken. The first is performed on the undisturbed soil, whereas the second is done after removal of the soil surface crust. The HYDRUS 2D two‐dimensional vertical infiltration model is then used in an inverse modelling approach, first to estimate the soil hydraulic properties of the crust and the subsoil, and then the effective hydraulic properties of the soil represented as a single uniform layer. The results show that the crust hydraulic conductivity is 10 times lower than that of the subsoil, thus illustrating the limiting role the crust has on infiltration. Moving up to the plot scale, a rainfall‐runoff model coupling the Richards equation to a transfer function is used to simulate Hortonian overland flow hydrographs. The previously calculated hydraulic properties are used, and a comparison is undertaken between a single‐layer and a double‐layer representation of the crusted soil. The results of the rainfall‐runoff model show that the soil hydraulic properties calculated at the local scale give acceptable results when used to model runoff at the plot scale directly, without any numerical calibration. Also, at the plot scale, no clear improvement of the results can be seen when using a double‐layer representation of the soil in comparison with a single homogeneous layer. This is due to the hydrological characteristics of Hortonian runoff, which is triggered by a rainfall intensity exceeding the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil surface. Consequently, the rainfall‐runoff model is more sensitive to rainfall than to the subsoil's hydrodynamic properties. Therefore, the use of a double‐layer soil model to represent runoff on a crusted soil does not seem necessary, as the increase of precision in the soil discretization is not justified by a better performance of the model. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.