Toward a rapid probabilistic seismic vulnerability assessment using satellite and ground-based remote sensing

Natural hazards such as earthquakes threaten millions of people all around the world. In a few decades, most of these people will live in fast-growing, inter-connected urban environments. Assessing risk will, therefore, be an increasingly difficult task that will require new, multidisciplinary approaches to be tackled properly. We propose a novel approach based on different imaging technologies and a Bayesian information integration scheme to characterize exposure and vulnerability models, which are among the key components of seismic risk assessment.     

The end of the Ediacara biota: Extinction,biotic replacement,or Cheshire Cat?

The Ediacaran–Cambrian transition signals a drastic change in both diversity and ecosystem construction. The Ediacara biota (consisting of various metazoan stem lineages in addition to extinct eukaryotic clades) disappears, and is replaced by more familiar Cambrian and Paleozoic metazoan groups. Although metazoans are present in the Ediacaran, their ecological contribution is dwarfed by Ediacaran-type clades of uncertain phylogenetic affinities, while Ediacaran-type morphologies are virtually non-existent in younger assemblages. Three alternative hypotheses have been advanced to explain this dramatic change at, or near, the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary: 1) mass extinction of most Ediacaran forms; 2) biotic replacement, with early Cambrian organisms eliminating Ediacaran forms; and 3) a Cheshire Cat model, with Ediacaran forms gradually disappearing from the fossil record (but not necessarily going extinct) as a result of the elimination of unique preservational settings, primarily microbial matgrounds, that dominated the Ediacaran. To evaluate these proposed explanations for the biotic changes observed at the Ediacaran–Cambrian transition, environmental drivers leading to global mass extinction are compared to biological factors such as predation and ecosystem engineering. We explore temporal and biogeographic distributions of Ediacaran taxa combined with evaluations of functional guild ranges throughout the Ediacaran. The paucity of temporally-resolved localities with diverse Ediacaran assemblages, combined with difficulties associated with differences in taphonomic regimes before, during, and after the transition hinders this evaluation. Nonetheless, the demonstration of geographic and niche range changes offers a novel means of assessing the downfall of Ediacara-type taxa at the hands of emerging metazoans, which we hypothesize to be most likely due to the indirect ecological impact metazoans had upon the Ediacarans. Ultimately, the combination of studies on ecosystem construction, biostratigraphy, and biogeography showcases the magnitude of the transition at the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary.     

Modeling approaches and strategies for data-scarce aquifers: example of the Dar es Salaam aquifer in Tanzania

Management of groundwater resources can be improved by using groundwater models to perform risk analyses and to improve development strategies, but a lack of extensive basic data often limits the implementation of sophisticated models. Dar es Salaam in Tanzania is an example of a city where increasing groundwater use in a Pleistocene aquifer is causing groundwater-related problems such as saline intrusion along the coastline, lowering of water-table levels, and contamination of pumping wells. The lack of a water-level monitoring network introduces a problem for basic data collection and model calibration and validation. As a replacement, local water-supply wells were used for measuring groundwater depth, and well-top heights were estimated from a regional digital elevation model to recalculate water depths to hydraulic heads. These were used to draw a regional piezometric map. Hydraulic parameters were estimated from short-time pumping tests in the local wells, but variation in hydraulic conductivity was attributed to uncertainty in well characteristics (information often unavailable) and not to aquifer heterogeneity. A MODFLOW model was calibrated with a homogeneous hydraulic conductivity field and a sensitivity analysis between the conductivity and aquifer recharge showed that average annual recharge will likely be in the range 80–100 mm/year.     

A Comparative Study of Five Reference Materials and the Lombard Meteorite for the Determination of the Platinum‐Group Elements and Gold by LA‐ICP‐MS

A range of independently characterised reference materials (RMs) for LA‐ICP‐MS, used for the determination of the platinum‐group elements (PGE) and Au in a sulfide matrix, were analysed and compared: 8b, PGE‐A, NiS‐3, Po727‐T1, Po724‐T and the Lombard meteorite. The newly developed RM NiS‐3 was used as the RM for the calibration of all LA‐ICP‐MS analyses and the measured concentrations of the other RMs compared against their published concentrations. This data were also used to assess the consistency of concentrations calibrated against the different RMs. It was found that Po727‐T1 and 8b produced results that were comparable, within uncertainty, for all elements. Po727‐T1 also produced consistent results with NiS‐3 for all elements. All other RMs showed differences for some elements, especially Ru in Po724‐T, and Os, Ir and Au in PGE‐A. The homogeneity of the PGE and Au in each RM was assessed, by comparing the precision of multiple LA‐ICP‐MS spot analyses with the average uncertainty of the signal. Po724‐T, Po727‐T1 and the Lombard meteorite were found to be homogeneous for all elements, but 8b, PGE‐A and NiS‐3 were heterogeneous for some elements. This is the first direct comparison between a range of independently characterised PGE and Au LA‐ICP‐MS RMs.     

Investigating hydrological drivers of nitrate export dynamics in two agricultural catchments in Germany using high-frequency data series

In this study near-continuous time series of nitrate, electrical conductivity, and discharge were used to identify the dominating hydrological mechanisms that control nitrate export dynamics in two agricultural catchments. The main goal was to assess relationships between contrasting event based as well as long-term nitrate transport behaviour and catchment hydrology. Data records were obtained from online probes that allow field based high-frequency analyses over long time periods. The catchments of the Ammer River (southwestern Germany) and the Weida River (eastern Germany) are similar with respect to size (~100 km²), morphology, and climate and are dominated by agricultural use. Main differences are the stronger urbanization and the occurrence of karstic rocks in the Ammer catchment. Nitrate concentrations are high in water of both streams and range mostly between 20 and 50 mg l^?1. Nitrate export in the Ammer catchment is dominated by baseflow and a minor second, diluting runoff component generated in urbanized areas. In contrast, nitrate dynamics of the Weida catchment is governed by the interplay of at least three runoff components, while the largest amount of nitrate is mobilized intermittently by a delayed fast component generated in the catchment’s soils during wet conditions. These interpretations, derived with one online probe at the outlet of each catchment, are well in line with the former modeling results. This study shows that high-resolution data obtained by online techniques offers a large potential to improve the conceptualization of dominating flow and transport processes at catchment scales at relatively low costs and effort.     

Intra-oceanic settings of the western Mexico Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous arc sequences. Implications for the Pacific-Tethys geodynamic relationships during the Cretaceous

Abstract

The Guerrero suspect terrane composed of Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous sequences, extends from Baja California up to Acapulco and is considered to be coeval with the Late Mesozoic igneous and sedimentary arc sequences of the Greater Antilles, Venezuela and Western Cordillera of Colombia. New geological, petrological and geochemical data from central and southern Mexico, led us to propose a new model for the building of the Alisitos-Teloloapan arc. This arc, partly built on the Pacific oceanic lithosphere and partly on continental fragments, could be related to the subduction of an oceanic basin - the Arperos basin - under the Paleo-Pacific plate. This subduction was dipping southwest.

At the beginning of the magmatic activity of the oceanic segment of this arc, depleted tholeiitic basalts were emitted in a submarine environnement below the CCD. While subduction was going on, the arc magmas evolved from LREE depleted tholeiites to slightly LREE enriched tholeiites and then, to calc-alkaline basalts and andesites enriched in LREE and HFSE. Concurrently, the arc sedimentary environment changed from deep oceanic to neritic with the deposition of Aptian-Albian reefal limestones, at the end of the arc building. In the continent-based segment, the arc magmas are exclusively differentiated calc-alkaline suites depleted in HREE and Y, formed of predominantly siliceous lavas and pyroclastic rocks, emitted in a sub-aerial or shallow marine environment.

Thus, taking into account this above mentioned model, the Cretaceous volcanic series, accreted to the margins of cratonal America, in Colombia, Venezuela, Greater Antilles and Mexico, could be related to the same west-south-west dipping subduction of oceanic basins, fringing the North and South American continental cratons and connected directly with the inter-American Tethys. While the subduction was proceeding, this magmatic arc drifted towards the North and South American cratons and finally, collided with the continental margins at different periods during the Cretaceous.     

Geochemistry and Petrogenesis of Siwana Peralkaline Granites, West of Barmer, Rajasthan, India

The bimodal Malani suite, West of Barmer, Rajasthan is characterized by discontinuous, ring shaped outcrops of Siwana peralkaline granite with minor outcrops of basalt. The peralkaline, within- plate and A-type nature of granite are evident by its chemical characteristics. The granite is characterized by high Na₂O+K₂O, Fe/Mg, Zr, Nb, Y, Zn; low Al₂O₃, CaO and Sr and is significantly low in absolute abundance of trace and REE elements compared to type area Siwana granite. The granite is correlated to the “Pan-African” event and its petrogenesis and tectonic significance are discussed.     

Effect of particle density and inflow concentration of suspended sediment on bedload transport in rill flow

Laboratory flume experiments were carried out to evaluate the effect of particle density on bedload transport of sand‐sized particles and the effect of a suspended load of clay particles (kaolinite) on bedload transport of sand‐sized particles in rill flow conditions. Three materials in the range 400–600 µm were selected to simulate bedload transport of primary particles and aggregates: sand (2650 kg/m³), crushed brick (2450 kg/m³) and anthracite (1300–1700 kg/m³). In the two first experiments, two different methods were applied to determine bedload transport capacity of coarse particles for various conditions of flow discharge (from 2 to 15 L/min) and slope (2.2, 3 and 4%). In the third experiment, clear water was replaced with kaolinite–water mixture and bedload transport capacity of crushed brick particles was determined for a 4% slope and different concentrations of kaolinite (0, 7, 41 and 84 g/L). The results showed that bedload transport increased significantly with the decrease in particle density but the effect of particle density on transport rates was much less important than flow discharge. Velocity measurements of clear flow, flow mixed with coarse particles and coarse particles confirmed the existence of a differentiation between suspended load and bedload. In these experimental conditions, suspended load of kaolinite did not affect bedload rates of crushed brick particles. Three transport capacity formulae were tested against observed bedload rates. A calibration of the Foster formula revealed that the shear stress exponent should be greater than 1.5. The Low and the Govers unit stream power (USP) equations were then evaluated. The Low equation was preferred for the prediction of bedload rates of primary particles but it was not recommended in the case of aggregates of low density because of the limited experimental conditions applied to derive this equation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2D equivalent linear site effect simulation: example applications to two deep valleys

In the framework of the Sismovalp European project, an equivalent linear 2D code was developed to compute the response of a valley to SH waves, using the discrete wave-number method proposed by Aki and Larner (Aki K, Larner KL (1970) J Geophys Res 75:5). To overcome the frequency upper bound limitation, the Aki and Larner’s method is combined with a one-dimensional computation using a classical multi-layer method (Aki K, Richards PG (1980) Quantitative Seismology: Theory and Methods, vols. 1 & 2. W.H. Freeman & Co, San Francisco). The so-called “Aki–Larner extended method” is associated to an iterative algorithm, as proposed by Seed and Idriss (Seed HB, Idriss IM (1969) Report No. EERC 70–10, Earthquake Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, California) which accounts for the modulus and damping degradation using a linear visco-elastic model. A comparison of the results in the linear and the equivalent linear cases, for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, shows that the account for the equivalent linear behaviour of the soil significantly reduces the amplification level, especially at frequencies higher than the fundamental resonance frequency of the site. In the case of site effects or microzonation studies devoted to produce design spectra for engineering structures, this can have a major impact on the associated results and costs, depending on the frequency of interest for the considered structure. As a first application of the developed technique, 2D equivalent linear Aki–Larner computations are used to perform the seismic microzonation study of the upper Rhone valley, in the Visp area (Switzerland), a typical 2D alpine valley. These investigations made it possible to determine site specific spectra, associated with different zones, to be used instead of the code spectra that do not take into account the local 2D amplification.