Evaluation of the exact conditional spectrum and generalized conditional intensity measure methods for ground motion selection

Two existing, contemporary ground motion selection and modification procedures – (i) exact conditional spectrum (CS‐exact) and (ii) generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) – are evaluated in their ability to accurately estimate seismic demand hazard curves (SDHCs) of a given structure at a specified site. The amount of effort involved in implementing these procedures to compute a single SDHC is studied, and a case study is chosen where rigorous benchmark SDHCs can be determined for evaluation purposes. By comparing estimates from ground motion selection and modification procedures with the benchmark, we conclude that estimates from CS‐exact are unbiased in many of the cases considered. The estimates from GCIM are even more accurate, as they are unbiased for most – but not all – of the cases where estimates from CS‐exact are biased. We find that it is possible to obtain biased SDHCs from GCIM, even after employing a very diverse collection of intensity measures to select ground motions and implementing its bias‐checking feature, because it is usually difficult to identify intensity measures that are truly ‘sufficient’ for the response of a complex, multi‐degree‐of‐freedom system. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Morphology,structure and kinematics of a rainfall controlled slow‐moving Andean landslide,Peru

The large slow‐moving landslide of Maca is located in the upper Colca valley (southern Peru), a region characterized by a well pronounced rainy period, and intense and recurrent sustained seismicity. The landslide, developed in deep lacustrine deposits, has recently accelerated, threatening the Maca village. This work aims at understanding the rupture mechanism and the causes of the recent landslide reactivation/acceleration. We present a multidisciplinary characterization of the Maca landslide that includes: (i) geological and morphological mapping in the field; (ii) remote sensing analysis using an historical aerial photograph of 1955 and the Pléiades satellite images (2013); (iii) global positioning system (GPS) including time‐series of surveys over 13 years, and continuous measurements over 14 months; (iv) a geophysical campaign with deep electrical resistivity tomography profiles acquired across the landslide mass. Our study shows that this 60 Mm³ landslide, which can be classified as a clay/silt compound landslide, moved by 15 m between 2001 and 2014 with a large inter‐annual velocity variation (up to a factor of 500) depending on the rainfall intensity. We suggest that these dramatic changes in velocity are the result of the combination of a threshold mechanism and the short intense rainy season in Peru. This study reveals three main driving factors acting at different timescales: (i) over several decades, the river course has significantly changed, causing the Maca landslide reactivation in the 1980s due to the erosion of its toe; (ii) at the year scale, a minimum amount of rainfall is required to trigger the motion and this amount controls the landslide velocity; (iii) transient changes in slide velocity may occur anytime due to earthquakes. This study particularly highlights the non‐linear behaviour of the motion with rainfall. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Review of self-potential methods in hydrogeophysics

The self-potential (SP) method is a passive geophysical method based on the natural occurrence of electrical fields on the Earth's surface. Combined with other geophysical methods, SP surveys are especially useful for localizing and quantifying groundwater flows and pollutant plume spreading, and estimating pertinent hydraulic properties of aquifers (water table, hydraulic conductivity). Laboratory experiments have shown that the involved coupling coefficients mainly depend on the fluid chemistry, conductivity and pH, and on the soil or rock properties. The interpretation of SP observations can be done qualitatively, for instance, by correlation of SP gradients with water fluxes (through electrokinetics) or salt fluxes (through electro-diffusion). In recent years, the interpretation has been improved with the help of modelling or/and inversion of the Poisson equation and endeavours to estimate hydraulic parameters by means of the intensity of electric current sources caused by underground flows.     

Influence of shallow infiltration on time-lapse ERT: Experience of advanced interpretation

Previous time-lapse Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) studies have experienced difficulties in reconstructing reliable calculated resistivity changes in the subsurface. Increases or decreases of resistivity appear in the calculated ERT image where no changes were noted in the subsurface, leading to erroneous hydrological interpretations of the geophysical results. In this article, we investigate how a variation of actual resistivity with time and at shallow depth can influence time-lapse ERT results and produce resistivity artefacts at depth. We use 1 and 2-D numerical modelling to simulate infiltration scenarios. Using a standard time-lapse inversion, we demonstrate the resistivity artefact production according to the electrode spacing parameter. We used an advanced inversion methodology with a decoupling line at shallow depth to attenuate or remove resistivity artefacts. We also applied this methodology to a field data set obtained in a semi-arid environment in Burkina Faso, West Africa. Here, time-lapse ERT shows several resistivity artefacts of calculated resistivity if a standard inversion is used. We demonstrate the importance of a dense sampling of shallow resistivity variations at shallow depth. Advanced interpretation allows us to significantly attenuate or remove the resistivity artefact production at intermediate depth and produce reliable interpretation of hydrological processes.     

Contribution of geophysical surveys to groundwater modelling of a porous aquifer in semiarid Niger: An overview

Subsurface geophysical surveys were carried out using a large range of methods in an unconfined sandstone aquifer in semiarid south-western Niger for improving both the conceptual model of water flow through the unsaturated zone and the parameterization of numerical a groundwater model of the aquifer. Methods included: electromagnetic mapping, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), resistivity logging, time domain electromagnetic sounding (TDEM), and magnetic resonance sounding (MRS). Analyses of electrical conductivities, complemented by geochemical measurements, allowed us to identify preferential pathways for infiltration and drainage beneath gullies and alluvial fans. The mean water content estimated by MRS (13%) was used for computing the regional groundwater recharge from long-term change in the water table. The ranges in permeability and water content obtained with MRS allowed a reduction of the degree of freedom of aquifer parameters used in groundwater modelling.     

A spatially explicit methodology for a priori estimation of field survey effort in environmental observation networks

When establishing environmental monitoring programmes, it crucial to make reliable cost estimates, especially where a field survey is involved. This paper presents a methodology for creating a spatial measure of a field survey effort (SE). A set of relevant variables affecting a SE (e.g. areas with rough terrain, or distant from the main road network) was classified using fuzzy sets and then combined to produce spatially explicit effort indicators, which were integrated to a single measure using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). To evaluate this approach and identify the limits for its application, three spatially nested case studies were used to test the spatial expression of SE and the scalable capacity of the method itself. The presented methodology could cope with variations in the scale and data resolution, retrieving a coherent estimate of SE across the different case studies. The presented methodology is therefore useful for (i) testing the network designs for sampling bias related to SE, (ii) comparing alternative sampling designs, (iii) assessing the sampling costs and (iv) supporting the human and logistical resource management.     

Processes of India’s offshore summer intraseasonal sea surface temperature variability

Active and break phases of the Indian summer monsoon are associated with sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations at 30–90 days timescale in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Mechanisms responsible for basin-scale intraseasonal SST variations have previously been discussed, but the maxima of SST variability are actually located in three specific offshore regions: the South-Eastern Arabian Sea (SEAS), the Southern Tip of India (STI) and the North-Western Bay of Bengal (NWBoB). In the present study, we use an eddy-permitting 0.25° regional ocean model to investigate mechanisms of this offshore intraseasonal SST variability. Modelled climatological mixed layer and upper thermocline depth are in very good agreement with estimates from three repeated expendable bathythermograph transects perpendicular to the Indian Coast. The model intraseasonal forcing and SST variability agree well with observed estimates, although modelled intraseasonal offshore SST amplitude is undere-stimated by 20–30 %. Our analysis reveals that surface heat flux variations drive a large part of the intraseasonal SST variations along the Indian coastline while oceanic processes have contrasted contributions depending of the region considered. In the SEAS, this contribution is very small because intraseasonal wind variations are essentially cross-shore, and thus not associated with significant upwelling intraseasonal fluctuations. In the STI, vertical advection associated with Ekman pumping contributes to ～30 % of the SST fluctuations. In the NWBoB, vertical mixing diminishes the SST variations driven by the atmospheric heat flux perturbations by 40 %. Simple slab ocean model integrations show that the amplitude of these intraseasonal SST signals is not very sensitive to the heat flux dataset used, but more sensitive to mixed layer depth.     

SMOS reveals the signature of Indian Ocean Dipole events

The tropical Indian Ocean experiences an interannual mode of climatic variability, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The signature of this variability in ocean salinity is hypothesized based on modeling and assimilation studies, on account of scanty observations. Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite has been designed to take up the challenge of sea surface salinity remote sensing. We show that SMOS data can be used to infer the pattern of salinity variability linked with the IOD events. The core of maximum variability is located in the central tropical basin, south of the equator. This region is anomalously salty during the 2010 negative IOD event, and anomalously fresh during the 2011 positive IOD event. The peak-to-peak anomaly exceeds one salinity unit, between late 2010 and late 2011. In conjunction with other observational datasets, SMOS data allow us to draw the salt budget of the area. It turns out that the horizontal advection is the main driver of salinity anomalies. This finding is confirmed by the analysis of the outputs of a numerical model. This study shows that the advent of SMOS makes it feasible the quantitative assessment of the mechanisms of ocean surface salinity variability in the tropical basins, at interannual timescales.

     

Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages in recent sediments of Visakhapatnam harbour,east coast of India: Influence of environmental characteristics

The distribution and abundance of dinoflagellate cysts in recent sediments from Visakhapatnam harbour, east coast of India was investigated and compared with sediment characteristics and physico-chemical variables of the overlying water column. The cyst abundance varied from 11 to 1218 cysts g^–1 dry sediment. Changes in the cyst assemblages from phototrophic to heterotrophic forms were observed from inner to outer harbour stations, and related to changes in environmental characteristics. Enhanced cyst production of potentially harmful dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum was recorded in the inner harbour stations with higher nutrient concentrations. Protoperidinium cysts were the most diversified group, and were dominant in the outer harbour stations having improved water conditions and circulation. This study points out the potential use of dinoflagellate cyst populations in providing information on environmental conditions.     

Canadian gravimetric geoid model 2010

A new gravimetric geoid model, Canadian Gravimetric Geoid 2010 (CGG2010), has been developed to upgrade the previous geoid model CGG2005. CGG2010 represents the separation between the reference ellipsoid of GRS80 and the Earth’s equipotential surface of $W_0=62{,}636{,}855.69~\mathrm{m}^2\mathrm{s}^{-2}$ W 0 = 62 , 636 , 855.69 m 2 s ? 2 . The Stokes–Helmert method has been re-formulated for the determination of CGG2010 by a new Stokes kernel modification. It reduces the effect of the systematic error in the Canadian terrestrial gravity data on the geoid to the level below 2 cm from about 20 cm using other existing modification techniques, and renders a smooth spectral combination of the satellite and terrestrial gravity data. The long wavelength components of CGG2010 include the GOCE contribution contained in a combined GRACE and GOCE geopotential model: GOCO01S, which ranges from $-20.1$ ? 20.1 to 16.7 cm with an RMS of 2.9 cm. Improvement has been also achieved through the refinement of geoid modelling procedure and the use of new data. (1) The downward continuation effect has been accounted accurately ranging from $-22.1$ ? 22.1 to 16.5 cm with an RMS of 0.9 cm. (2) The geoid residual from the Stokes integral is reduced to 4 cm in RMS by the use of an ultra-high degree spherical harmonic representation of global elevation model for deriving the reference Helmert field in conjunction with a derived global geopotential model. (3) The Canadian gravimetric geoid model is published for the first time with associated error estimates. In addition, CGG2010 includes the new marine gravity data, ArcGP gravity grids, and the new Canadian Digital Elevation Data (CDED) 1:50K. CGG2010 is compared to GPS-levelling data in Canada. The standard deviations are estimated to vary from 2 to 10 cm with the largest error in the mountainous areas of western Canada. We demonstrate its improvement over the previous models CGG2005 and EGM2008.