Response to comment by Keith Beven on “Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?”

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.     

The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise

The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010–2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.     

Modeling equilibrium bed profiles of short tidal embayments

In many tidal embayments, bottom patterns, such as the channel-shoal systems of the Wadden Sea, are observed. To gain understanding of the mechanisms that result in these bottom patterns, an idealized model is developed and analyzed for short tidal embayments. In this model, the water motion is described by the depth- and width-averaged shallow water equations and forced by a prescribed sea surface elevation at the entrance of the embayment. The bed evolves due to the divergence and convergence of suspended sediment fluxes. To model this suspended-load sediment transport, the three-dimensional advection–diffusion equation is integrated over depth and averaged over the width. One of the sediment fluxes in the resulting one-dimensional advection–diffusion equation is proportional to the gradient of the local water depth. In most models, this topographically induced flux is not present. Using standard continuation techniques, morphodynamic equilibria are obtained for different parameter values and forcing conditions. The bathymetry of the resulting equilibrium bed profiles and their dependency on parameters, such as the phase difference between the externally prescribed M₂ and M₄ tide and the sediment fall velocity, are explained physically. With this model, it is then shown that for embayments that are dominated by a net import of sediment, morphodynamic equilibria only exist up to a maximum embayment length. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the model to different morphological boundary conditions at the entrance of the embayment is investigated and it is demonstrated how this strongly influences the shape and number of possible equilibrium bottom profiles. This paper ends with a comparison between the developed model and field data for the Wadden Sea’s Ameland and Frisian inlets. When the model is forced with the observed M₂ and M₄ tidal constituents, morphodynamic equilibria can be found with embayment lengths similar to those observed in these inlets. However, this is only possible when the topographically induced suspended sediment flux is included. Without this flux, the maximum embayment length for which morphodynamic equilibria can be found is approximately a third of the observed length. The sensitivity of the model to the topographically induced sediment flux is discussed in detail.     

Die stratiforme Sulfidlagerstätte Walchen,Steiermark, Österreich: Geochemie und Genese

Zusammenfassung Die Neubearbeitung derstratiformen Sulfidlagerstätte Walchen bei Öblarn, Steiermark, offen-bart eine eisenbetonte submarin-exhalative Metallkonzentration in einem vulkano-sedimentären Rahmen. Dieser liegt heute in Form metamorpher Gesteine der untersten Grünschieferfazies vor. Mineralchemische Untersuchungen zeigen, daß die ehemalige intensivste metamorphe Überprägung der Lagerstätte im Bereich von 450°–500°C oberhalb 4 kb stattgefunden hat. Metavulkanite, vertreten durch Grünschiefer, lassen alkalibasaltische Affinität erkennen. Die vulkano-tektonische Position der Lagerstätte ist in einem intrakontinentalen Riftsystem zu sehen.

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The stratiform sulphide deposit at walchen, styria, austria: Geochemistry and genesis

Summary The Walchen deposit consists of a 1–2 m thick layer of massive to disseminated pyrite-pyrrhotite-chalcopyrite ore with an average grade of 1% Cu. It has been mined intermittently in the past. The ore horizon occurs within sericitic and quartzitic phyllites which carry intercalations with significant carbonate, garnet and graphite contents. The succession is of lower Paleozoic age and forms part of the Grauwackenzone, a volcano-sedimentary unit which separates the Central Alps from the Northern Calcareous Alps.The precursor rocks of the ore environment have been pelites and sandstones; greenschists occur in the hanging wall of the mineralization. Major and trace element analyses of greenschists reveal them as low-grade metamorphic equivalents of continental alkali basalts. Hydrothermal systems generated by volcanic activity were responsible for deposition of stratiform sulphides. The predominance of clastic sediments and the absence of stringer zones point towards a shallow depositional basin.Microprobe analyses of garnets from the ore environment reveal an increase in spessartine contents from 7 mol% in phyllites to 20 mol% in the vicinity of the ore horizon. Similar data have been reported from other stratabound base metal deposits (Broken Hill, N.S.W.; Kreuzeck Mountains, Austria; Gamsberg, South Africa); the manganese concentrations represent fossil manganese haloes.Pyrite carries minor Ni and Co (up to 0.03, respectively 0.3%), pyrrhotite averages 0.8% Ni and 0.1% Co, Fe-contents of sphalerite vary from 6.41–9.33%; Cd, In and Mn have not been recorded.Garnet-biotite pairs suggest maximum metamorphic temperatures of 450°–500°C: pressures of 4 to 5 kb have been estimated. The Walchen deposit is interpreted as the product of submarine exhalative processes in an incipient rift. It was affected by prograde metamorphism during the Variscan orogeny, and by retrograde affects during a later event. Isochemical metamorphism resulted in the preservation of a primary manganese halo.

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Mit 6 Abbildungen     

The intensity,velocity and magnetic structure of a sunspot region

The observational set-up for a detailed study of the velocity, intensity and magnetic-field fine structure in and around a sunspot is described. On highly resolved spectra we detected in the vicinity of a sunspot a large number of points with strong magnetic fields (magnetic knots). The magnetic field in these knots causes a striking decrease of the line depth (or a line gap after Sheeley, 1967). The properties of the magnetic knots are: (1) magnetic fields up to 1400 gauss; (2) diameter 1100 km; (3) coincidence with dark intergranular spaces; (4) generally downward material motion; (5) lifetime>30min; (6) estimated total number around an unipolar spot 2000; (7) combined magnetic flux comparable to the sunspot flux; (8) coincidence with Ca⁺ plages.For the smallest sunspots (pores) we obtained magnetic fields >1500 gauss. Hence a magnetic field of about 1400–1500 gauss appears to be a rather critical level for pore and spot formation.We found a large number of small areas producing line gaps without measurable magnetic field. These non-magnetic gap-regions coincide with bright continuum structures.Some aspects arising from the occurrence of hundreds of magnetic knots in an active region are discussed in the last section.Presently guest investigator at the Göttingen Observatory.Previously member of the High Altitude Observatory solar project at Sacramento Peak (Contract Nr. AF (628) - 4078).     

Differential rotation and giant cell circulation of solar Ca+-network

We report new results obtained from high precision computer controlled tracings of ca. 400 bright Ca⁺-mottles made during summer 1975 in continuation of our 1974 program (Schröter and Wöhl, 1975). In particular, we looked in 1975 for the existence of a giant circulation pattern in the equatorial zone. We find for the differential rotation: = 13.93 – 2.90 sin² B (deg/day, sidereal) when combining the new measurements with those obtained in 1974. Observations from 26th April until June 19th give strong evidence that at that time four giant circulation cells, crossing the solar equator, (i.e. a nonaxisymmetric velocity field pattern with respect to the solar equator) did exist. This yields two more rapid and two slower rotating sectors with v = ±80 m s^–1. These giant cells transport angular momentum towards the equator.     

Hα Photometry of Two Contact Binaries

We carried out optical and Hα photometry of two contact binaries (V861 Herculis, EQ Tauri). The light curve modeling revealed stellar spots in both contact systems and strong Hα excess in the position of the observed stellar spots. A correlation was found between the V−R and R−H_α colour indices of V861 Her.     

The solar differential rotation: Present status of observations

The present status of observations regarding the solar differential rotation is reviewed from contributions published in the last two decades. The paper does not deal with the theory; it mentions theoretical aspects only where they are needed to guide and to understand observational efforts and results.Mitteilungen aus dem Kiepenheuer-Institut Nr. 250.     

A cross-ecosystem comparison of spatial and temporal patterns of covariation in the recruitment of functionally analogous fish stocks

Temporal and spatial patterns of recruitment (R) and spawning stock biomass (S) variability were compared among functionally analogous species and similar feeding guilds from six marine ecosystems. Data were aggregated into four regions including the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank, the Norwegian/Barents Seas, the eastern Bering Sea, and the Gulf of Alaska. Variability was characterized by calculating coefficients of variation and anomalies for three response variables: ln(R), ln(R/S), and stock–recruit model residuals. Patterns of synchrony and asynchrony in the response variables were examined among and between ecosystems, between- and within-ocean basins and among functionally analogous species groups using pair-wise correlation analysis corrected for within-time series autocorrelation, multivariate cross-correlation analyses and regime shift detectors. Time series trends in response variables showed consistent within basin similarities and consistent and coherent differences between the Atlantic and Pacific basin ecosystems. Regime shift detection algorithms identified two broad-scale regime shift time periods for the pelagic feeding guild (1972–1976 and 1999–2002) and possibly one for the benthic feeding guild (1999–2002). No spatial patterns in response variable coefficients of variation were observed. Results from multivariate cross-correlation analysis showed similar trends. The data suggest common external factors act in synchrony on stocks within ocean basins but temporal stock patterns, often of the same species or functional group, between basins change in opposition to each other. Basin-scale results (similar within but different between) suggest that the two geographically broad areas are connected by unknown mechanisms that, depending on the year, may influence the two basins in opposite ways. This work demonstrates that commonalities and synchronies in recruitment fluctuations can be found across geographically distant ecosystems but biophysical causes of the fluctuations remain difficult to identify.