Selection criteria for linear regression models to estimate individual tree biomasses in the Atlantic Rain Forest,Brazil

Background

Biomass models are useful for several purposes, especially for quantifying carbon stocks and dynamics in forests. Selecting appropriate equations from a fitted model is a process which can involves several criteria, some widely used and others used to a lesser extent. This study analyzes six selection criteria for models fitted to six sets of individual biomass collected from woody indigenous species of the Tropical Atlantic Rain Forest in Brazil. Six models were examined and the respective fitted equations evaluated by the residual sum of squares, adjusted coefficient of determination, absolute and relative estimates of the standard error of estimate, and Akaike and Schwartz (Bayesian) information criteria. The aim of this study was to analyze the numeric behavior of these model selection criteria and discuss the ease of interpretation of them. The importance of residual analysis in model selection is stressed.

Results

The adjusted coefficient of determination (\( R^{2}_{adj.} \)) and the standard error of estimate in percentage (Syx%) are relative model selection criteria and are not affected by sample size and scale of the response variable. The sum of squared residuals (SSR), the absolute standard error of estimate (Syx), the Akaike information criterion and the Schwartz information criterion, in turn, depend on these quantities. The best fit model was always the same within a given data set regardless the model selection criteria considered (except for SSR in two cases), indicating they tend to converge to a common result. However, such criteria are not always closely related across different data sets. General model selection criteria are indicative of the average goodness of fit, but do not capture bias and outlier effects. Graphical residual analysis is a useful tool to this detection and must always be used in model selection.

Conclusions

It is concluded that the criteria for model selection tend to lead to a common result, regardless their mathematical formulation and statistical significance. Relative measures of goodness of fitting are easier to interpret than the absolute ones. Careful graphical residual analysis must always be used to confirm the performance of the models.

     

Assessing the role of forests in mitigating eutrophication downstream of pasture during spring snowmelt

Little research has examined whether forests reduce stream water eutrophication in agricultural areas during spring snowmelt periods. This study evaluated the role of forests in ameliorating deteriorated stream water quality in agricultural areas, including pasture, during snowmelt periods. Temporal variation in stream water quality at a mixed land‐use basin (565 ha: pasture 13%, forestry 87%), northern Japan, was monitored for 7 years. Synoptic stream water sampling was also conducted at 16 sites across a wide range of forest and agricultural areas in a basin (18.3 km²) in spring, summer and fall. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) deposition were measured for 4 years. The results showed that concentration pulses of nitrate, organic N and total P in stream water were observed when discharge increased during spring snowmelt. Their concentrations were high when silicate concentrations were low, suggesting surface water exported from pasture largely contributed to stream water pollution during snowmelt. Atmospheric N and P deposition (4.1 kg N ha^?1 y^?1; 0.09 kg P ha^?1 y^?1, respectively) was too low to affect the background concentrations of N and P in streams from forested areas. Reduction of eutrophication caused by nutrients from pasture was mainly due to dilution by water containing low concentrations of N and P exported from forested areas, whereas in‐stream reduction was not a dominant process. Results indicate that forests have a limited capacity to reduce the concentration pulses of N and P in stream water during snowmelt in this study basin. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of scattering and dust grain size on the temperature structure of protoplanetary discs: a three-layer approach

The temperature in the optically thick interior of protoplanetary discs is essential for the interpretation of millimetre observations of the discs, for the vertical structure of the discs, for models of the disc evolution and the planet formation, and for the chemistry in the discs. Since large icy grains have a large albedo even in the infrared, the effect of scattering of the diffuse radiation in the discs on the interior temperature should be examined. We have performed a series of numerical radiation transfer simulations, including isotropic scattering by grains with various typical sizes for the diffuse radiation as well as for the incident stellar radiation. We also have developed an analytic model including isotropic scattering to understand the physics concealed in the numerical results. With the analytic model, we have shown that the standard two-layer approach is valid only for grey opacity (i.e. grain size ≳10 μm) even without scattering. A three-layer interpretation is required for grain size ≲10 μm. When the grain size is 0.1–10 μm, the numerical simulations show that the isotropic scattering reduces the temperature of the disc interior. This reduction is nicely explained by the analytic three-layer model as a result of the energy loss by scatterings of the incident stellar radiation and of the warm diffuse radiation in the disc atmosphere. For grain size ≳10 μm (i.e. grey scattering), the numerical simulations show that the isotropic scattering does not affect the interior temperature. This is nicely explained by the analytic two-layer model; the energy loss by scattering in the disc atmosphere is exactly offset by the 'green-house effect' due to the scattering of the cold diffuse radiation in the interior.     

Architecture,formation and implication of active structure-controlled intraslope channel system southeast offshore Sendai,Tohoku, Japan

Located off the Pacific coast of central Tohoku (NE Japan), the Ishinomaki slope channel (ISC) provides an excellent opportunity to study a structure-controlled intraslope channel and downslope sedimentation along the active margin. The seismic reflection data across ISC show an extensive basal surface and overlying channel complexes between the basement structures of the Abukuma ridge to the south and Kitakami massif to the north, indicating that the formation of the intraslope basin, channelization of ISC and sedimentation of the downstream channel-lobe transition zone (CLTZ) are very likely to be structure-controlled. The oblique channel stacking pattern, faulting of the seafloor and subsurface Abukuma ridge in the upper and lower domains of ISC, collectively suggest that ISC has migrated northward and is currently under the influence of active compression. Differences in styles of accommodation space between the upper and lower domains of ISC suggest that differential subsidence occurred along the strike-slip tectonic line. Based on the regional strike-slip tectonic line, we propose that a Kitakami-Abukuma ridge existed before the formation of ISC. The strike-slip faulting divided the Kitakami-Abukuma ridge into the Kitakami massif to the north and the Abukuma ridge to the south, and an intervening fault trough as the precursor of the intraslope basin and ISC. As the subduction of the Pacific Plate and associated compressional events continued, the Abukuma ridge was reactivated to narrow the intraslope basin into a confined channel. Located near the epicentre of the devastating 2011 Tohoku earthquake event, the ISC, downstream CLTZ and underlying intraslope basin provide information on active basement structure and the evolving sediment routing system on the tectonically active margin.     

The spatial and temporal distributions of spheroidal carbonaceous particles from sediment core samples from industrial cities in Japan and China

Spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs) are produced by the high-temperature combustion of fossil fuels and emitted in to the atmosphere. The distribution and concentration of SCPs in sediments have been used as a proxy for the distribution of pollutants emitted to the atmosphere. However, the effect on the distribution of SCPs due to industrial activity at nearby industrial cities is yet to be quantified. To clarify the origin of SCPs of ~20 μm in size that are preserved in sediments, we evaluated the abundance, surface morphology, and chemical composition of SCPs in sediment core samples recovered from industrial cities in Japan (Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagasaki) and China (Beijing), with the cities being located at least ~500 km away from each other. Vertical profiles of SCP concentration in sediment cores from the Japanese cities and Beijing are different, reflecting the contrasting industrial histories of the two countries. The SCPs from different cities show contrasting morphological and chemical characteristics, suggesting that ~20 μm SCPs in sediments from the industrial cities could represent the local combustion history in detail, as the influx of local SCPs is dominant at such sites.     

A new high-stress undrained ring-shear apparatus and its application to the 1792 Unzen–Mayuyama megaslide in Japan

Sassa and others in the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, developed a series of undrained ring-shear apparatus to physically simulate landslide initiation and motion, from DPRI-3 (Sassa 1992) to DPRI-7 (Sassa et al., Landslides 1(1):7–19, 2004). The maximum undrained capacities in the DPRI series ranged from 300 to 650 kPa. Sassa and others in the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) have developed a new series of undrained ring-shear apparatus (ICL-1and ICL-2) for two projects of the International Programme on Landslides (IPL-161 and IPL-175). Both projects are supported by the Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development Program (SATREPS) of Japan. ICL-1 was developed to create a compact and transportable apparatus for practical use in Croatia; one set was donated to Croatia in 2012. ICL-2 was developed in 2012–2013 to simulate the initiation and motion of megaslides of more than 100 m in thickness. The successful undrained capacity of ICL-2 is 3 MPa. This apparatus was applied to simulate possible conditions for the initiation and motion of the 1792 Unzen–Mayuyama megaslide (volume, 3.4?×?10⁸ m³; maximum depth, 400 m) triggered by an earthquake. The megaslide and resulting tsunami killed about 15,000 people. The Unzen Restoration Office of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT) of Japan systematically collected various papers and reports and published two summary leaflets: one in English in 2002 and an extended version in Japanese in 2003. Samples were taken from the source area (for initiation) and the moving area (for motion). The hazard area was estimated by the integrated landslide simulation model LS-RAPID, using parameters obtained with the ICL-2 undrained ring-shear apparatus. The estimated hazard area agrees reasonably with the landslide moving area reported in the Ministry leaflets.     

Relationship between surface morphology and chemical composition of spheroidal carbonaceous particles within sediment core samples recovered from Osaka Bay,Japan

Spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs) are produced by the high-temperature combustion of fossil fuels and are emitted to the atmosphere. Previous studies are divided regarding whether SCPs derived from the combustion of various fossil fuels can be identified based on their surface morphologies and chemical compositions. In this study, we examined the surface morphology and chemical composition of SCPs in sediment core samples collected from Osaka Bay, Japan, with the aim of evaluating the usefulness of SCPs morphology in identifying their origin. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) observations reveal three distinct surface morphologies: (1) smooth, (2) rough and irregular, and (3) convoluted and layered. According to a morphological classification scheme proposed previously, the former two morphologies correspond to coal-derived carbon particles, whereas the latter corresponds to oil-derived carbon particles. In terms of the chemical compositions of the particles with different morphologies, as analyzed by energy-dispersive spectroscopy, linear discriminant analysis reveals that the two fuel types can be distinguished. An overall success rate of >90% of reference of morphologically classified material correctly assigned to two groups that are chemically different each other, indicating a relationship between surface morphology and chemical composition. This result suggests that morphological characterization based on conventional SEM observations is useful in identifying the source fuel of SCPs.     

The 2000 April multiwavelength campaign of GRS 1915+105

We report results from multiwavelength observations of the microquasarGRS 1915+105 performed during the 2000 April campaign. This is one ofthe biggest campaigns ever made for this source covering the broadband from radio to γ-rays. Multiwavelength light curves compiledfrom all the data reduced up to date and broad band spectra obtainedwith ASCA and RXTE are presented.