An introspective glance into damage assessment: challenges and lessons learned from the Paso Robles (San Simeon) earthquake

This paper underscores the importance of damage assessment and recognizes the direct effect it has on post-disaster response and recovery operations. The paper first explores the literature on this subject, including the history, types, methods, and problems relating to damage assessment. After discussing the employed research methodology, the paper uses the Paso Robles (San Simeon, California) earthquake as a case study to illustrate the challenges and successes with regard to damage assessment. Logistics, politics, information management, coordination, preparedness, and other topics are discussed in this section. The paper concludes with lessons and opportunities for research and its application.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clostridium difficile</Emphasis> infection incidence prediction in hospitals (CDIIPH): a predictive model based on decision tree and fuzzy techniques

Several risk factors associated with the increased likelihood of healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) have been identified in the literature. These risk factors are mainly related to age, previous CDI, antimicrobial exposure, and prior hospitalization. No model is available in the published literature that can be used to predict the CDI incidence using healthcare administration data. However, the administrative data can be imprecise and may challenge the building of classical statistical models. Fuzzy set theory can deal with the imprecision inherent in such data. This research aimed to develop a model based on deterministic and fuzzy mathematical techniques for the prediction of hospital-associated CDI by using the explanatory variables controllable by hospitals and health authority administration. Retrospective data on CDI incidence and other administrative data obtained from 22 hospitals within a regional health authority in British Columbia were used to develop a decision tree (deterministic technique based) and a fuzzy synthetic evaluation model (fuzzy technique based). The decision tree model had a higher prediction accuracy than that of the fuzzy based model. However, among the common results predicted by two models, 72 % were correct. Therefore, this relationship was used to combine their results to increase the precision and the strength of evidence of the prediction. These models were further used to develop an Excel-based tool called C. difficile Infection Incidence Prediction in Hospitals (CDIIPH). The tool can be utilized by health authorities and hospitals to predict the magnitude of CDI incidence in the following quarter.     

Development of a predictive model for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Clostridium difficile</Emphasis> infection incidence in hospitals using Gaussian mixture model and Dempster–Shafer theory

Clostridium difficile infection is one of the major patient safety concerns in hospitals worldwide. Clostridium difficile infection can have high economic burden to patients, hospitals, and government. Limited work has been done in the area of predictive modeling. In this article, A new predictive model based on Gaussian mixture model and Dempster–Shafter theory is proposed to predict Clostridium difficile infection incidence in hospitals. First, the Gaussian mixture model and expectation–maximization algorithms are used to generate explicit probability criteria of risk factors based on the given data. Second, Dempster–Shafter theory is used to predict the Clostridium difficile infection incidence based on the generated probability criteria that have different beliefs attributing to their different credits. The main procedure includes (1) generate the probability criteria model using Gaussian mixture model and expectation–maximization algorithm; (2) determine the credit of the probability criteria; (3) generate the basic probability assignment; (4) discount the evidences; (5) aggregate the evidences using Dempster combining rule; (6) predict Clostridium difficile infection incidence using pignistic probability transformation. Results show that the model has a higher accuracy than an existing model. The proposed model can generate the criteria ratings of risk factors automatically, which would potentially prevent the imprecision caused by the subjective judgement of experts. The proposed model can assist risk managers and hospital administrators in the prediction and control of Clostridium difficile infection incidence with optimizing their resources.     

Evaluation of Probe-Induced Flow Distortion of Campbell CSAT3 Sonic Anemometers by Numerical Simulation

The Campbell CSAT3 sonic anemometer is one of the most popular instruments for turbulence measurements in basic micrometeorological research and ecological applications. While measurement uncertainty has been characterized by field experiments and wind-tunnel studies in the past, there are conflicting estimates, which motivated us to conduct a numerical experiment using large-eddy simulation to evaluate the probe-induced flow distortion of the CSAT3 anemometer under controlled conditions, and with exact knowledge of the undisturbed flow. As opposed to wind-tunnel studies, we imposed oscillations in both the vertical and horizontal velocity components at the distinct frequencies and amplitudes found in typical turbulence spectra in the surface layer. The resulting flow-distortion errors for the standard deviations of the vertical velocity component range from 3 to 7%, and from 1 to 3% for the horizontal velocity component, depending on the azimuth angle. The magnitude of these errors is almost independent of the frequency of wind speed fluctuations, provided the amplitude is typical for surface-layer turbulence. A comparison of the corrections for transducer shadowing proposed by both Kaimal et al. (Proc Dyn Flow Conf, 551–565, 1978) and Horst et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 155:371–395, 2015) show that both methods compensate for a larger part of the observed error, but do not sufficiently account for the azimuth dependency. Further numerical simulations could be conducted in the future to characterize the flow distortion induced by other existing types of sonic anemometers for the purposes of optimizing their geometry.     

Effect of climate change on overland flow generation: a case study in central Germany

The impact of global climate change on runoff components, especially on the type of overland flow, is of utmost significance. High‐resolution temporal rainfall plays an important role in determining the hydrological response of quick runoff components. However, hydrological climate change scenario analyses with high temporal resolution are rare. This study investigates the impact of climate change on discharge peak events generated by rainfall, snowmelt, and soil‐frost induced runoff using high‐resolution hydrological modelling. The study area is Schäfertal catchment (1.44 km²) in the lower Harz Mountains in central Germany. The WaSiM‐ETH hydrological model is used to investigate the rainfall response of runoff components under near future (2021–2050) and far‐distant future (2071–2100) climatic conditions. Disaggregated daily climate variables of WETTREG2010 SRES scenario A1B are used on a temporal resolution of 10 min. Hydrological model parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis was conducted using the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM_(ZS)) uncertainty tool. The scenario results show that total runoff and interflow will increase by 3.8% and 3.5% in the near future and decrease by 32.85% and 31% in the far‐distant future compared to the baseline scenario. In contrast, overland flow and the number and size of peak runoff will decrease moderately for the near future and drastically for the far‐distant future compared to the baseline scenario. We found the strongest decrease for soil‐frost induced discharge peaks at 79.6% in the near future and at 98.2% in the far‐distant future scenario. It can be concluded that high‐resolution hydrological modelling can provide detailed predictions of future hydrological regimes and discharge peak events of the catchment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climatology of dust storm frequency and its association with temperature and precipitation patterns over Pakistan

Natural Hazards - Diversified topography and uneven distribution of both temperature and precipitation contribute to formation of suitable synoptic conditions for incidents of dust storm (DS). This...     

Communicating human health risks associated with disinfection by-products in drinking water supplies: a fuzzy-based approach

Chlorine used for the disinfection of water supplies can react with naturally occurring organic compounds and form potentially harmful disinfection by-products (DBPs). A risk index for two regulated groups of chlorinated DBPs—trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs), using fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering algorithm and fuzzy rule-based modeling is proposed for risk communication. The proposed index evaluates the cancer and non-cancer risks individually for THMs and HAAs using the FCM algorithm. Subsequently, two different fuzzy rule-bases were used to evaluate the overall risk-index based on cancer and non-cancer risks. The overall risk-index will provide drinking water utilities with an effective communication tool for communicating aggregated water quality compliance. Simulated DBP occurrence data obtained from the City of Quebec, Canada, is used to demonstrate the application of this methodology.     

Minimizing the impacts of contaminant intrusion in small water distribution networks through booster chlorination optimization

Contaminant intrusion in a water distribution network (DN) has three basic pre-conditions: source of contaminant (e.g., leaky sewer), a pathway (e.g., water main leaks), and a driving force (e.g., negative pressure). The impact of intrusion can be catastrophic if residual disinfectant (chlorine) is not present. To avoid microbiological water quality failure, higher levels of secondary chlorination doses can be a possible solution, but they can produce disinfectant by-products which lead to taste and odour complaints. This study presents a methodology to identify potential intrusion points in a DN and optimize booster chlorination based on trade-offs among microbiological risk, chemical risk and life-cycle cost for booster chlorination. A point-scoring scheme was developed to identify the potential intrusion points within a DN. It utilized factors such as pollutant source (e.g., sewer characteristics), pollution pathway (water main diameter, length, age, and surrounding soil properties, etc.), consequence of contamination (e.g., population, and land use), and operational factors (e.g., water pressure) integrated through a geographical information system using advanced ArcMap 10 operations. The contaminant intrusion was modelled for E. Coli O156: H7 (a microbiological indicator) using the EPANET-MSX programmer’s toolkit. The quantitative microbial risk assessment and chemical (human health) risk assessment frameworks were adapted to estimate risk potentials. Booster chlorination locations and dosages were selected using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. The methodology was illustrated through a case study on a portion of a municipal DN.     

Investigation of landslides with natural lineaments derived from integrated manual and automatic techniques applied on geospatial data

Lineament extraction has long been performed through extensive field mapping. Recent advances in the field of remote sensing have made possible the availability of imageries from earth observation satellites with different Spatio-temporal resolutions, paving way for new automatic, semi-automatic, and manual techniques for the extraction of natural lineaments. The study focuses on the extraction of lineaments representing tectonic fault zones; the lineaments are extracted automatically and semi-automatically/manually. Results show that indirect information about the tectonic lineaments can be derived through automatic techniques whereas, the semi-automatic techniques are more effective to directly identify them. Detailed analyses of lineaments and landslides revealed that areas near lineaments, in general, experienced higher frequency of landslides. Moreover, it is also observed that lineaments are not the only factor that affects landslide density; other parameters like slope and lithology were also found to be the controlling factors in determining the spatial landslide distribution. Lastly, some recommendations have been made based on observations.

     

On the cratonization of the Arabian-Nubian Shield:Constraints from gneissic granitoids in south Eastern Desert,Egypt

The Shaitian granite complex(SGC) spans more than 80 Ma of crustal growth in the Arabian–Nubian Shield in southeast Egypt.It is a voluminous composite intrusion(60 km~2) comprising a host tonalite massif intruded by subordinate dyke-like masses of trondhjemite,granodiorite and monzogranite.The host tonalite,in turn,encloses several,fine-grained amphibolite enclaves.U-Pb zircon dating indicates a wide range of crystallization ages within the SGC(800 ± 18 Ma for tonalites;754 ± 3.9 Ma for trondhjemite;738 ± 3.8 Ma for granodiorite;and 717 ± 3.2 Ma for monzogranite),suggesting crystallization of independent magma pulses.The high positiveεNdi(+6–+8) indicate that the melting sources were dominated by juvenile material without any significant input from older crust.Application of zircon saturation geothermometry indicates increasing temperatures during the generation of melts from 745 ± 31 ℃ for tonalite to 810 ± 25 ℃ for trondhjemite;840 ± 10 ℃ for granodiorite;and 868 ± 10 ℃ for monzogranite.The pressure of partial melting is loosely constrained to be below the stability of residual garnet(10 kbar) as inferred from the almost flat HREE pattern((Gd/Lu)N= 0.9–1.1),but 3 kbar for the stability of residual amphibole as inferred from the significantly lower NbNand TaNcompared with LREENand the sub-chondrite Nb/Ta ratios exhibited by the granitic phases.The inverse relation between the generation temperatures and the ages estimates of the granitoid lithologies argue against a significant role of fractional crystallization.The major and trace element contents indicate the emplacement of the SGC within a subduction zone setting.It lacks distinctive features for melt derived from a subducted slab(e.g.high Sr/Y and high(La/Yb)Nratios),and the relatively low MgO and Ni contents in all granite phases within the SGC suggest melting within the lower crust of an island arc overlying a mantle wedge.Comparison with melts produced during melting experiments indicates an amphibolite of basaltic composition is the best candidate as source for the tonalite,trondhjemite and granodiorite magmas whereas the monzogranite magma is most consistent with fusion of a tonalite protolith.Given the overlapping Sm-Nd isotope ratios as well as several trace element ratios between monzogranite and tonalite samples,it is reasonable to suggest that the renewed basaltic underplating may have caused partial melting of tonalite and the emplacement of monzogranite melt within the SGC.The emplacement of potassic granite(monzogranite) melts subsequent to the emplacement of Na-rich granites(tonalitetrondhjemite-granodiorite) most likely suggests major crustal thickening prior arc collision and amalgamation into the over thickened proto-crust of the Arabian-Nubian shield.Eventually,after complete consolidation,the whole SGC was subjected to regional deformation,most probably during accretion to the Saharan Metacraton(arc–continent collisions) in the late Cryogenian-Ediacaran times(650–542 Ma).