Linking social capacities and risk communication in Europe: a gap between theory and practice?

Although both improved risk communication and the building of social capacities have been advocated as vital ways to increase societies?? resilience towards natural hazards across the world, the literature has rarely examined the ways in which these two concepts may integrate in theory and practice. This paper is an attempt to address this gap in a European context. It begins with a conceptual discussion that unites the literature on risk communication with the literature on social capacity building. We then use the insights from this discussion as a basis to conduct a review of 60 risk communication practices from across Europe. This review indicates a gap between theory and practice because, whilst the literature highlights the importance of integrated and coordinated communication campaigns featuring both a one-way transfer and a two-way dialogue between the public, stakeholders and decision-makers, the majority of the communication practices reviewed here appear to be relatively disparate initiatives that rely on one-way forms of communication. On the basis of these findings, we conclude by making some recommendations for the way in which such practices could be improved in order to be more supportive of social capacities across Europe.     

阿尔金断裂乌尊硝段的现今活动速率

利用GPS和水准观测资料 ,对阿尔金断裂的现今活动速率进行研究。阿尔金断裂西段的活动水平普遍高于东段 ,水平分量存在自西往东减弱的趋势。乌尊硝段左旋走滑的断错地貌极为发育。GPS测量表明乌尊硝段断裂相对左旋运动 ,目前最大的走滑速率是 (9± 5 )mm/a ,和东段安南坝附近的观测结果一致。水准测量反映断裂附近并无明显抬升 ,垂直断裂的最大水平缩短速率在 (3± 1)mm/a以下 ,说明阿尔金断裂现今仍以水平运动为主     

Fluvial system response to Late Devensian (Weichselian) aridity,Baston, Lincolnshire,England

Little is known about the impact of Late Devensian (Weichselian) aridity on lowland British landscapes, largely because they lack the widespread coversand deposits of the adjacent continent. The concentration of large interformational ice‐wedge casts in the upper part of many Devensian fluvial sequences suggests that fluvial activity may have decreased considerably during this time. The development of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating enables this period of ice‐wedge cast formation to be constrained for the first time in eastern England, where a marked horizon of ice‐wedge casts is found between two distinctive dateable facies associations. Contrasts between this horizon and adjacent sediments show clear changes in environment and fluvial system behaviour in response to changing water supply, in line with palaeontological evidence. In addition to providing chronological control on the period of ice‐wedge formation, the study shows good agreement of the radiocarbon and OSL dating techniques during the Middle and Late Devensian, with direct comparison of these techniques beyond 15 000 yr for the first time in Britain. It is suggested that aridity during the Late Devensian forced a significant decrease in fluvial activity compared with preceding and following periods, initiating a system with low peak flows and widespread permafrost development. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In Situ Effects of Shoreline Type and Watershed Land Use on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Habitat Quality in the Chesapeake and Mid-Atlantic Coastal Bays

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) is an ecologically and economically valuable component of coastal estuaries that acts as an early indicator of both degrading and improving water quality. This study aimed to determine if shoreline hardening, which is associated with increased population pressure and climate change, acts to degrade SAV habitat quality at the local scale. In situ comparisons of SAV beds adjacent to both natural and hardened shorelines in 24 subestuaries throughout the Chesapeake and Mid-Atlantic Coastal Bays indicated that shoreline hardening does impact adjacent SAV beds. Species diversity, evenness, and percent cover were significantly reduced in the presence of riprap revetment. A post hoc analysis also confirmed that SAV is locally affected by watershed land use associated with increased population pressure, though to a lesser degree than impacts observed from shoreline armoring. When observed over time, SAV recovery at the local level took approximately 3 to 4 years following storm impacts, and SAV adjacent to natural shorelines showed more resilience to storms than SAV adjacent to armored shorelines. The negative impacts of shoreline hardening and watershed development on SAV shown here will inform coastal zone management decisions as increasing coastal populations and sea level rise drive these practices.     

Influence of groundwater and topography on stream drying in semi-arid headwater streams

Non-perennial streams comprise over half of the global stream network and impact downstream water quality. Although aridity is a primary driver of stream drying globally, surface flow permanence varies spatially and temporally within many headwater streams, suggesting that these complex drying patterns may be driven by topographic and subsurface factors. Indeed, these factors affect shallow groundwater flows in perennial systems, but there has been only limited characterisation of shallow groundwater residence times and groundwater contributions to intermittent streams. Here, we asked how groundwater residence times, shallow groundwater contributions to streamflow, and topography interact to control stream drying in headwater streams. We evaluated this overarching question in eight semi-arid headwater catchments based on surface flow observations during the low-flow period, coupled with tracer-based groundwater residence times. For one headwater catchment, we analysed stream drying during the seasonal flow recession and rewetting period using a sensor network that was interspersed between groundwater monitoring locations, and linked drying patterns to groundwater inputs and topography. We found a poor relationship between groundwater residence times and flowing network extent (R² < 0.24). Although groundwater residence times indicated that old groundwater was present in all headwater streams, surface drying also occurred in each of them, suggesting old, deep flowpaths are insufficient to sustain surface flows. Indeed, the timing of stream drying at any given point typically coincided with a decrease in the contribution from near-surface sources and an increased relative contribution of groundwater to streamflow at that location, whereas the spatial pattern of drying within the stream network typically correlated with locations where groundwater inputs were most seasonally variable. Topographic metrics only explained ~30% of the variability in seasonal flow permanence, and surprisingly, we found no correlation with seasonal drying and down-valley subsurface storage area. Because we found complex spatial patterns, future studies should pair dense spatial observations of subsurface properties, such as hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity, to observations of seasonal flow permanence.     

Modeling the response of primary production and sedimentation to variable nitrate loading in the Mississippi River plume

Increases in nitrate loading to the Mississippi River watershed during the last 50 years are considered responsible for the increase in hypoxic zone size in Louisiana-Texas shelf bottom waters. There is currently a national mandate to decrease the size of the hypoxic zone to 5000 km² by 2015, mostly by a 30% reduction in annual nitrogen discharge into the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an ecosystem model for the Mississippi River plume to investigate the response of organic matter production and sedimentation to variable nitrate loading. The nitrogen-based model consisted of nine compartments (nitrate, ammonium, labile dissolved organic nitrogen, bacteria, small phytoplankton, diatoms, micro- and mesozooplankton, and detritus), and was developed for the spring season, when sedimentation of organic matter from plume surface waters is considered important in the development of shelf hypoxia. The model was forced by physical parameters specified along the river-ocean salinity gradient, including residence time, light attenuation by dissolved and particulate matter, mixed layer depth, and dilution. The model was developed using measurements of biological biomasses and nutrient concentrations across the salinity gradient, and model validation was performed with an independent dataset of primary production measurements for different riverine NO₃ loads. Based on simulations over the range of observed springtime NO₃ loads, small phytoplankton contributed on average 80% to primary production for intermediate to high salinities (>15), and the main contributors to modeled sedimentation at these salinities were diatom sinking, microzooplankton egestion, and small phytoplankton mortality. We investigated the impact of limiting factors on the relationship between NO₃ loading and ecosystem rates. Model results showed that primary production was primarily limited by physical dilution of NO₃, followed by abiotic light attenuation, light attenuation due to mixing, and diatom sinking. Sedimentation was mainly limited by the first three of these factors. Neither zooplankton grazing or plume residence times acted as limiting factors of ecosystem rates. Regarding nutrient reductions to the watershed, simulations showed that about half of the percent decrease in NO₃ load was reflected in decreased plume sedimentation. For example, a 30% decrease in NO₃ load resulted in a 19% decrease in average plume primary production and a 14% decrease in sedimentation. Finally, our model results indicated that the fraction of primary production exported from surface waters is highly variable with salinity (7–87%), a finding which has important implications for predictive models of hypoxic zone size that assume a constant value for this ratio.     

Stabilization and reactivation of cratonic lithosphere from the lower crustal record in the western Canadian shield

New U–Pb geochronology for an extensive exposure of high-pressure granulites in the East Lake Athabasca region of the western Canadian shield is consistent with a history characterized by 2.55 Ga stabilization of cratonic lithosphere, 650 million years of lower crustal residence and cratonic stability, and 1.9 Ga reactivation of the craton during lithospheric attenuation and asthenospheric upwelling. High precision single-grain and fragment zircon data define distinctive discordia arrays between 2.55 and 1.9 Ga. U–Pb ion microprobe spot analyses yield a similar range of U–Pb dates with no obvious correlation between date and cathodoluminescence zonation. We attribute the complex U–Pb zircon systematics to growth of the primary populations during a 2.55 Ga high-pressure granulite facies event (~1.3 GPa, 850°C) recorded by the dominant mineral assemblage of the mafic granulite gneisses, with subsequent zircon recrystallization and minor secondary zircon growth during a second high-pressure granulite facies event (1.0 GPa, ~800°C) at 1.9 Ga. The occurrence of two discrete granulite facies metamorphic events in the lower crust, separated by an interval of 650 million years that included isobaric cooling for at least some of this time, suggests that the rocks resided at lower crustal depths until 1.9 Ga. We infer that this phase of lower crustal residence and little tectonic activity is coincident with an extended period of cratonic stability. Detailed structural and thermochronological datasets indicate that multistage unroofing of the lower crustal rocks occurred in the following 200 million years. Extended lower crustal residence would logically be the history inferred for lower crust in most cratonic regions, but the unusual aspect of the history in the East Lake Athabasca region is the subsequent lithospheric reactivation that initiated transport of the lower crust to the surface. We suggest that a weakened strength profile related to the 1.9 Ga heating left the lithosphere susceptible to far-field tectonic stresses from bounding orogens that drove the lower crustal exhumation. An ultimate return to cratonic stability is responsible for the preservation of this extensive lower crustal exposure since 1.7 Ga.     

Finding moving flock patterns among pedestrians through collective coherence

Tracking technologies are able to provide high-resolution movement data that can advance research in different fields, such as tourism management. In this specific field, developing methods to extract moving flock patterns from such data are particularly relevant to enable us to improve our knowledge of the nature of recreational use interactions, which is crucial for a good management of attractions and for designing sustainable development policies. However, ‘flocking’ has been usually associated with the form of collective movement of a large group of birds, fish, insects and certain mammals as well. Very few research efforts have been devoted in finding flock patterns associated with pedestrian movement. In this work, we propose a moving flock pattern definition and a corresponding extraction algorithm based on the notion of collective coherence. We use the term collective coherence to refer to the spatial closeness over some time duration with a minimum number of members. Furthermore, we evaluate the proposed algorithm by applying it to two different pedestrian movement datasets, which have been gathered from visitors of two recreational parks. The results show that the algorithm is capable of extracting moving flock patterns, disqualifying the patterns with flock members that remain stationary in a common place during the considered time interval.     

The Mesolithic–Neolithic transition in southern Iberia

New data and a review of historiographic information from Neolithic sites of the Malaga and Algarve coasts (southern Iberian Peninsula) and from the Maghreb (North Africa) reveal the existence of a Neolithic settlement at least from 7.5 cal ka BP. The agricultural and pastoralist food producing economy of that population rapidly replaced the coastal economies of the Mesolithic populations. The timing of this population and economic turnover coincided with major changes in the continental and marine ecosystems, including upwelling intensity, sea-level changes and increased aridity in the Sahara and along the Iberian coast. These changes likely impacted the subsistence strategies of the Mesolithic populations along the Iberian seascapes and resulted in abandonments manifested as sedimentary hiatuses in some areas during the Mesolithic–Neolithic transition. The rapid expansion and area of dispersal of the early Neolithic traits suggest the use of marine technology. Different evidences for a Maghrebian origin for the first colonists have been summarized. The recognition of an early North-African Neolithic influence in Southern Iberia and the Maghreb is vital for understanding the appearance and development of the Neolithic in Western Europe. Our review suggests links between climate change, resource allocation, and population turnover.