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41.
Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Hugues Goosse Hans Renssen Axel Timmermann Raymond S. Bradley Michael E. Mann 《Climate Dynamics》2006,27(2-3):165-184
We present and describe in detail the advantages and limitations of a technique that combines in an optimal way model results and proxy-data time series in order to obtain states of the climate system consistent with model physics, reconstruction of past radiative forcing and proxy records. To achieve this goal, we select among an ensemble of simulations covering the last millennium performed with a low-resolution 3-D climate model the ones that minimise a cost function. This cost function measures the misfit between model results and proxy records. In the framework of the tests performed here, an ensemble of 30 to 40 simulations appears sufficient to reach reasonable correlations between model results and reconstructions, in configurations for which a small amount of data is available as well as in data-rich areas. Preliminary applications of the technique show that it can be used to provide reconstructions of past large-scale temperature changes, complementary to the ones obtained by statistical methods. Furthermore, as model results include a representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, it can be used to provide insights into some amplification mechanisms responsible for past temperature changes. On the other hand, if the number of proxy records is too low, it could not be used to provide reconstructions of past changes at a regional scale. 相似文献
42.
Raymond Hide 《Surveys in Geophysics》1985,7(2):163-167
Variations in the distribution of mass within the atmosphere, and changes in the pattern of winds produce fluctuations in all three components of the angular momentum of the atmosphere on time-scales upwards of a few days. It, has been shown that variations in theaxial component of atmospheric angular momentum during the Special Observing Periods in the recent First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE, where GARP is the Global Atmospheric Research Programme) are well correlated with short-term changes in the length of the day. They are consistent with the total angular momentum of the atmosphere and solid Earth being conserved on short timescales (allowing for lunar and solar effects), without requiring significant angular momentum transfer between the Earth's liquid core and solid mantle on timescales of weeks or months. It has also been shown that fluctuations, in the equatorial components of atmospheric angular momentum make a major contribution to the observed wobble of the instantaneous pole of the Earth's rotation with respect to the Earth's crust. A necessary step in the investigation was a re-examination of the underlying theory of non-rigid body rotational dynamics and angular momentum exchange between the atmosphere and solid Earth. Since only viscous or topographic coupling between the atmosphere and solid Earth can transfer angular momentum, no atmospheric flow that everywhere satisfied inviscid equations (including, but not solely, geostrophic flow) could affect the rotation of a spherical solid Earth. New effective angular momentum functions were introduced in order to exploit the available data and allow for rotational and surface loading deformation of the Earth. A theoretical basis has now been established for future routine determinations of atmopheric, angular momentum fluctuations for the purpose of meteorological and geophysical research, including the assessment of the extent to which movements in the solid Earth associated with very large earthquakes contribute to the excitation of the Chandlerian wobble. 相似文献
43.
Brian J. Harshburger Karen S. Humes Von P. Walden Troy R. Blandford Brandon C. Moore Raymond J. Dezzani 《水文研究》2010,24(10):1285-1295
As demand for water continues to escalate in the western Unites States, so does the need for accurate monitoring of the snowpack in mountainous areas. In this study, we describe a simple methodology for generating gridded‐estimates of snow water equivalency (SWE) using both surface observations of SWE and remotely sensed estimates of snow‐covered area (SCA). Multiple regression was used to quantify the relationship between physiographic variables (elevation, slope, aspect, clear‐sky solar radiation, etc.) and SWE as measured at a number of sites in a mountainous basin in south‐central Idaho (Big Wood River Basin). The elevation of the snowline, obtained from the SCA estimates, was used to constrain the predicted SWE values. The results from the analysis are encouraging and compare well to those found in previous studies, which often utilized more sophisticated spatial interpolation techniques. Cross‐validation results indicate that the spatial interpolation method produces accurate SWE estimates [mean R2 = 0·82, mean mean absolute error (MAE) = 4·34 cm, mean root mean squared error (RMSE) = 5·29 cm]. The basin examined in this study is typical of many mid‐elevation mountainous basins throughout the western United States, in terms of the distribution of topographic variables, as well as the number and characteristics of sites at which the necessary ground data are available. Thus, there is high potential for this methodology to be successfully applied to other mountainous basins. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
44.
Since 1999, Ohio EPA hydrogeologists have used two analytic element models (AEMs), the proprietary software GFLOW and U.S. EPA's WhAEM, to delineate protection areas for 535 public water systems. Both models now use the GFLOW2001 solution engine, integrate well with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, have a user-friendly graphical interface, are capable of simulating a variety of complex hydrogeologic settings, and do not rely upon a model grid. These features simplify the modeling process and enable AEMs to bridge the gap between existing simplistic delineation methods and more complex numerical models. Ohio EPA hydrogeologists demonstrated that WhAEM2000 and GFLOW2000 were capable of producing capture zones similar to more widely accepted models by applying the AEMs to eight sites that had been previously delineated using other methods. After the Ohio EPA delineated protection areas using AEMs, more simplistic delineation methods used by other states (volumetric equation and arbitrary fixed radii) were applied to the same water systems to compare the differences between various methods. GIS software and two-tailed paired t-tests were used to quantify the differences in protection areas and analyze the data. The results of this analysis demonstrate that AEMs typically produce significantly different protection areas than the most simplistic delineation methods, in terms of total area and shape. If the volumetric equation had been used instead of AEMs, Ohio would not have protected 265 km2 of critical upgradient area and would have overprotected 269 km2 of primarily downgradient land. Since an increasing number of land-use restrictions are being tied to drinking water protection areas, this analysis has broad policy implications. 相似文献
45.
Guillaume Le Hir Yannick Donnadieu Yves Goddéris Raymond T. Pierrehumbert Galen P. Halverson Mélina Macouin Anne Nédélec Gilles Ramstein 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2009,277(3-4):453-463
Carbonates capping Neoproterozoic glacial deposits contain peculiar sedimentological features and geochemical anomalies ascribed to extraordinary environmental conditions in the snowball Earth aftermath. It is commonly assumed that post-snowball climate dominated by CO2 partial pressures several hundred times greater than modern levels, would be characterized by extreme temperatures, a vigorous hydrological cycle, and associated high continental weathering rates. However, the climate in the aftermath of a global glaciation has never been rigorously modelled. Here, we use a hierarchy of numerical models, from an atmospheric general circulation model to a mechanistic model describing continental weathering processes, to explore characteristics of the Earth system during the supergreenhouse climate following a snowball glaciation. These models suggest that the hydrological cycle intensifies only moderately in response to the elevated greenhouse. Indeed, constraints imposed by the surface energy budget sharply limit global mean evaporation once the temperature has warmed sufficiently that the evaporation approaches the total absorbed solar radiation. Even at 400 times the present day pressure of atmospheric CO2, continental runoff is only 1.2 times the modern runoff. Under these conditions and accounting for the grinding of the continental surface by the ice sheet during the snowball event, the simulated maximum discharge of dissolved elements from continental weathering into the ocean is approximately 10 times greater than the modern flux. Consequently, it takes millions of years for the silicate weathering cycle to reduce post-snowball CO2 levels to background Neoproterozoic levels. Regarding the origin of the cap dolostones, we show that continental weathering alone does not supply enough cations during the snowball melting phase to account for their observed volume. 相似文献
46.
C. Hsein Juang Haiming Yuan David Kun Li Susan Hui Yang Raymond A. Christopher 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2005,25(5):403-411
An empirical procedure for estimating the severity of liquefaction-induced ground damage at or near foundations of existing buildings is established. The procedure is based on an examination of 30 case histories from recent earthquakes. The data for these case histories consist of observations of the damage that resulted from liquefaction, and the subsurface soil conditions as revealed by cone penetration tests. These field observations are used to classify these cases into one of three damaging effect categories, ‘no damage’, ‘minor to moderate damage’, and ‘major damage’. The potential for liquefaction-induced ground failure at each site is calculated and expressed as the probability of ground failure. The relationship between the probability of ground failure and the damage class is established, which allows for the evaluation of the severity of liquefaction-induced ground damage at or near foundations. The procedure presented herein represents a significant attempt to address the issue of liquefaction effect. Caution must be exercised, however, when using the proposed model and procedure for estimating liquefaction damage severity, because they are developed based on limited number of case histories. 相似文献
47.
J. C. Raymond 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2008,29(1-2):187-193
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections convert large amounts of magnetic free energy into thermal, kinetic and potential energies, and into energy of non-thermal particles. The partitioning among these forms of energy is fundamental to both the physics of the eruptive events and the space weather consequences of the eruptions. This talk describes some aspects of the energy budget that can be derived from ultraviolet observations of the corona. 相似文献
48.
Previous interdisciplinary paleoenvironmental and archaeological research along the Río Verde Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico, showed that Holocene erosion in the highland valleys of the upper drainage basin triggered geomorphic changes in the river's coastal floodplain. This article uses stratigraphic data from sediment cores extracted from Laguna Pastoría, an estuary in the lower Río Verde Valley, to examine changes in coastal geomorphology potentially triggered by highland erosion. Coastal lagoon sediments contain a stratigraphically and chronologically distinct record of major hurricane strikes during late Holocene times. Three distinct storm facies are identified from sediment cores obtained from Laguna Pastoría, which indicate that profound coastal environmental changes occurred within the region and are correlated with increased sediment supplied from highland erosion. The Chione/Laevicardium facies was deposited in an open bay while the Mytella/barnacle facies and sand facies were deposited in an enclosed lagoon following bay barrier formation. We argue that highland erosion triggered major geomorphic changes in the lowlands including bay barrier formation by 2500 cal yr B.P. These environmental changes may have had significant effects on human populations in the region. The lagoon stratigraphy further indicates an increase in mid–late Holocene hurricane activity, possibly caused by increased El Niño frequencies. 相似文献
49.
Quantifying flows along hydrological pathways by applying a new filtering algorithm in conjunction with master recession curve analysis 下载免费PDF全文
Ronan J. O'Brien Bruce D. Misstear Laurence W. Gill Paul M. Johnston Raymond Flynn 《水文研究》2014,28(26):6211-6221
Quantifying the proportion of the river hydrograph derived from the different hydrological pathways is essential for understanding the behaviour of a catchment. This paper describes a new approach using the output from master recession curve analysis to inform a new algorithm based on the Lyne and Hollick ‘one‐parameter’ signal analysis filtering algorithm. This approach was applied to six catchments (including two subcatchments of these) in Ireland. The conceptual model for each catchment consists of four main flow pathways: overland flow, interflow, shallow groundwater and deep groundwater. The results were compared with those of the master recession curve analysis, a recharge coefficient approach developed in Ireland and the semi‐distributed, lumped and deterministic hydrological model Nedbør‐Afstrømings‐Model. The new algorithm removes the ‘free variable’ aspect that is typically associated with filtering algorithms and provides a means of estimating the contribution of each pathway that is consistent with the results of hydrograph separation in catchments that are dominated by quick response pathways. These types of catchments are underlain by poorly productive aquifers that are not capable of providing large baseflows in the river. Such aquifers underlie over 73% of Ireland, ensuring that this new algorithm is applicable in the majority of catchments in Ireland and potentially in those catchments internationally that are strongly influenced by the quick‐responding hydrological pathways. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
50.
Raymond M. Valente Donald C. Rhoads Joseph D. Germano Victor J. Cabelli 《Estuaries and Coasts》1992,15(1):1-17
A synoptic reconnaissance survey was performed over a five-day period in August 1988 to assess benthic habitat quality throughout Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, using REMOTS® sediment-profile photography and analysis in combination with measurements of the levels ofClostridium perfringens spores (a fecal indicator) in sediments. Three main areas of degraded benthic habitat quality related to either excessive organic enrichment or physical disturbance were identified based solely on the REMOTS® analysis: the Providence River Reach, Greenwich Bay and its associated coves and harbors, and an area located along the southwest side of Prudence Island. Sediments at many stations in these areas exhibited shallow apparent redox-potential discontinuity (RPD) depths, high apparent oxygen demand, and low-order benthic successional stages. ElevatedClostridium perfringens spore counts in surface sediments were attributed to inputs from wastewater treatment facilities. The highest spore counts occurred at the head of the bay, where wastewater treatment discharges and associated combined sewer overflows are numerous. Using data from the REMOTS® analysis and the sediment inventory ofC. perfringens spores, a distinction was made between organic enrichment of the bottom from sewage, versus nonsewage enrichment or physical disturbance. The combination of techniques employed in this investigation could be used to design more efficient monitoring programs to assess eutrophication effects in estuaries and determine the effectiveness of regulatory or management initiatives to reduce organic overenrichment of benthic habitats. 相似文献