Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland

Abstract

Discharge in the Warta River in Poland has been analysed based on long series of measurements at the Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge station (covering the whole catchment area) and at Poznań (middle and upper catchment area), and the Note? River is characterized by the gauge station at Nowe Drezdenko. The annual mean discharge of the Warta River for the period 1981–2010 was equal to the average value for the last 163 years (209 m³ s^-1), and there was no significant change in comparison with the ratio of runoff in the summer and winter half-years. In the driest region of Poland, the climate has been described on the basis of precipitation and air temperature. The annual mean precipitation for 1981–2010 (544 mm) in the Warta River catchment area was the same as that for the period 1848–2010. The precipitation has been increasing in spring and winter, and decreasing in summer. There is a positive and very significant correlation (r = 0.705) between the annual discharge and annual precipitation totals. The annual mean air temperature has risen by 0.6°C between the periods 1848–1980 and 1981–2010.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Ilnicki, P., Farat, R., Górecki, K., and Lewandowski, P., 2014. Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1117–1134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831979     

Hydrochemical characterization of an acid mine drainage-affected reservoir: the Sancho Reservoir,Huelva, southwest Spain

Abstract

The objectives of this study were to discover the relationship between variables in a water reservoir and the hydrochemical variations related to acid mine drainage (AMD), and to describe the horizontal stratification related to vertical salinity and variations in metals present in the region. The information obtained may be used for establishing risk evaluation criteria and to design future remediation strategies, which could be useful for new dams. The hydrochemical characterization was based on a sampling campaign performed in October 2011. A total of 28 samples, at 1-m-deep intervals, were obtained. The hydrogeochemical study of the polluted reservoir shows that the dilution effect is not sufficient to neutralize AMD contributions from mining activity. Sampling carried out from the surface water to the deepest points reveals stratification of the reservoir that allows it to be included in the group of monomictic and holomitic lakes.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor M.D. Fidelibus     

Robust Regulation of Alkalinity in Highly Uncertain Continuous Anaerobic Digestion Processes

In this paper, a multiple‐input multiple‐output (MIMO) model‐based robust control scheme is proposed for the indirect control of both total alkalinity and the ratio (intermediate alkalinity)/(total alkalinity) by regulating volatile fatty acid concentrations and strong ions concentration, while guaranteeing the so‐called operational stability in anaerobic digestion (AD) processes. The proposed MIMO regulator is an adaptive controller derived from an AD model which incorporates the physicochemical equilibrium of the system as well as the use of a robust interval observer to estimate key process bounds that are used in the computation of the control efforts. Numerical simulations were carried out for a number of operating conditions under the most uncertain scenarios. Results showed that the proposed multivariable control law is able to recover the system stability around a pre‐determined set point in the face of parameter uncertainty and load disturbances.     

Geochemistry of groundwater in front of a warm‐based glacier in Southeast Greenland

Groundwater in front of warm‐based glaciers is likely to become a more integrated part of the future proglacial hydrological system at high latitudes due to global warming. Here, we present the first monitoring results of shallow groundwater chemistry and geochemical fingerprinting of glacier meltwater in front of a warm‐based glacier in Southeast Greenland (Mittivakkat Gletscher, 65° 41′ N, 37° 48′ W). The groundwater temperature, electrical conductivity and pressure head were monitored from August 2009 to August 2011, and water samples were collected in 2009 and analyzed for major ions and water isotopes (δD, δ¹⁸O). The 2 yrs of monitoring revealed that major outbursts of glacier water during the ablation season flushed the proglacial aquifer and determined the groundwater quality for the next 2–8 weeks until stable chemical conditions were reached again. Water isotope composition shows that isotopic fractionation occurs in both groundwater and glacier meltwater, but fractionation due to evaporation from near‐surface soil moisture prior to infiltration has the most significant effect. This study shows that groundwater in Low Arctic Greenland is likely to possess a combined geochemical and isotopic composition, which is distinguishable from other water sources in the proglacial environment. However, the shallow groundwater composition at a given time is highly dependent on major outbursts of glacier water in the previous months.     

Lake Floor Morphology and Sediment Architecture of Lake Torneträsk,Northern Sweden

Here we present datasets from a hydroacoustic survey in July 2011 at Lake Torneträsk, northern Sweden. Our hydroacoustic data exhibit lake floor morphologies formed by glacial erosion and accumulation processes, insights into lacustrine sediment accumulation since the beginning of deglaciation, and information on seismic activity along the Pärvie Fault. Features of glacial scouring with a high‐energy relief, steep slopes, and relative reliefs of more than 50 m are observed in the large W‐basin. The remainder of the lacustrine subsurface appears to host a broad variety of well preserved formations from glacial accumulation related to the last retreat of the Fennoscandian ice sheet. Deposition of glaciolacustrine and lacustrine sediments is focused in areas situated in proximity to major inlets. Sediment accumulation in distal areas of the lake seldom exceeds 2 m or is not observable. We assume that lack of sediment deposition in the lake is a result of different factors, including low rates of erosion in the catchment, a previously high lake level leading to deposition of sediments in higher elevated paleodeltas, tributaries carrying low suspension loads as a result of sedimentation in upstream lakes, and an overall low productivity in the lake. A clear off‐shore trace of the Pärvie Fault could not be detected from our hydroacoustic data. However, an absence of sediment disturbance in close proximity to the presumed fault trace implies minimal seismic activity since deposition of the glaciolacustrine and lacustrine sediments.     

An approach to response-based reliability analysis of quasi-linear Errors-in-Variables models

The paper presents an approach to internal reliability analysis of observation systems known as Errors-in-Variables (EIV) models with parameters estimated by the method of least squares. Such problems are routinely treated by total least squares adjustment, or orthogonal regression. To create a suitable environment for derivations in the analysis, a general nonlinear form of such EIV models is assumed, based on a traditional adjustment method of condition equations with unknowns, also known as the Gauss–Helmert model. However, in order to apply the method of reliability analysis based on the approach to response assessment in systems with correlated observations, presented in the earlier work of this author, it was necessary to confine the considerations to a quasi-linear form of the Gauss–Helmert model, representing quasi-linear EIV models. This made it possible to obtain a linear disturbance/response relationship needed in that approach. Several specific cases of quasi-linear EIV models are discussed. The derived formulas are consistent with those already functioning for standard least squares adjustment problems. The analysis shows that, as could be expected, the average level of response-based reliability for such EIV models under investigation is lower than that for the corresponding standard linear models. For EIV models with homoscedastic and uncorrelated observations, the relationship between the average reliability indices for the independent and the dependent variables is formulated for multiple regression and coordinate transformations. Numerical examples for these two applications are provided to illustrate this analysis.     

Quantifying the building stock from optical high-resolution satellite imagery for assessing disaster risk

This study uses high-resolution (HR) satellite imagery to quantify the stock of buildings, referred herein as building stock. The risk assessment requires information on the natural hazards and on the element at risk, that is the building stock in this article. This study combines (1) texture-based image processing to map built-up areas, (2) statistical sampling that allows locating the building samples and (3) photo-interpretation to encoding building footprints. Statistical inference is then used to quantify the building stock per class of building size. Legaspi in the Philippines is used as a case study. The results show that texture-based computer algorithms provide accurate area estimations of the built-up, that the detail of HR imagery allows the mapping of single buildings using photo-interpretation, and that a systematic sampling approach that uses building encoding and built-up maps can be used to quantify the building stock.     

Deforestation and fragmentation of seasonal tropical forests in the southern Yucatán,Mexico (1990–2006)

The southern Yucatán (SY) has been recognized as a hotspot of biodiversity with great risk of deforestation. Land change analysis, based on classified Landsat TM and ETM?+?satellite imagery (1990, 2000 and 2006), was used to estimate the annual deforestation rates of 141 land management units of the SY, and spatial patterns of forest fragmentation around and within the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve (CBR), which comprises approximately one-third of the region. Results indicate a decrease in annual deforestation rates over 1990–2006, from 0.15% year^?1 to 0.06% year^?1, but with significant sub-regional variations in the quantity and rate of forest loss. Despite a decline in deforestation during this period, there was considerable fragmentation both inside and outside the CBR. While population pressures and the expansion of pasture have caused deforestation across the region, agricultural intensification, diversified income strategies and reserve conservation may have contributed to reduced forest loss during the study period.