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81.
Climate change impact on extreme wave conditions in the North Sea: an ensemble study 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
An analysis of today’s mean and extreme wave conditions in the North Sea and their possible future changes due to anthropogenic climate change are presented. The sea state was simulated for the 30-year period 2071–2100 using the wave model WAM and an ensemble of wind field data sets for four climate change realizations as driving data. The wind field data sets are based on simulation outputs from two global circulation models (GCMs: HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3) for two emission scenarios (A2 and B2, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report on Emission Scenarios). They were regionalized by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute using the regional climate model RCAO. The effects of the climate realizations on the sea state statistics were assessed by analyzing the differences between the patterns in the four CGM/emission scenario combinations and those in two control simulations representing reference wave climate conditions for the 30-year period 1961–1990. The analysis of the four emission scenario/GCM combinations has shown that the future long-term 99 percentile wind speed and significant wave height increase by up to 7% and 18%, respectively, in the North Sea, except for significant wave height off the English coast and to the north in the HadAM3H-driven simulation. The climate change response in the ECHAM4/OPYC3-forced experiments is generally larger than in the HadAM3H-driven simulations. The differences in future significant wave height between the different combinations are in the same order of magnitude as those between the control runs for the two GCMs. Nevertheless, there is agreement among the four combinations that extreme wave heights may increase in large parts in the southern and eastern North Sea by about 0.25 to 0.35 m (5–8% of present values) towards the end of the twenty first century in case of global warming. All combinations also show an increase in future frequency of severe sea state. 相似文献
82.
Martin Haas Peter Biermann Rolf Chini Jochen Heidt Wolfram Kollatschny Helmut Meusinger Ralf Siebenmorgen 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2007,328(7):665-680
F11 Jets, supernovae, gammabursts – more light for theory? F35 A Direct Comparison of the QSO Samples from VPMS and SDSS F36 Gravitational Microlensing Simulations and Ensemble Broad‐Band Variability of the QSOs from VPMS F42 Luminosity function of low redshift quasars F43 Star Formation around Active Galactic Nuclei – Results from near infrared observations F58 High‐Redshift Quasars as Probes of Early Star Formation F66 On the dust emission of Seyfert nuclei F72 Propagation of Very Light MHD Jets F78 Giant Outflows in MassiveHigh‐z Radio Galaxies: Direct Evidence for AGNFeedback in the Early Universe F89 Lowfrequency mapping of ‘normal’ FR II radio galaxies: Resolving the puzzle of X‐shaped radio sources F90 Nature of X‐shaped radio sources: A statistical approach F100 Cosmological growth of Supermassive Black Holes: constraints on kinetic and radiative energy feedback F107 Molecular Tori in AGN F136 Electron‐Ion Recombination Rate Coefficients of Iron M‐Shell Ions for X‐Ray Astronomy F139 Hydrodynamic models of obscuring tori F145 The unique BL Lac Object S5 0716+714 F158 On the Cluster Environment of the BL Lac Object OJ 287 F179 The circumnuclear dust in nearby AGN resolved by mid‐infrared interferometry F184 NIR‐imaging of SDSS BL Lac objects F190 Blazar Observations in the TeV energy range with the MAGIC Telescope F198 Gas Inflow Rates in Nearby AGN Galaxies F202 Two zone SSC model for blazar jets F215 Long‐termVHE γ ‐ray monitoring of bright blazars with a dedicated telescope F218 Long termmonitoring of bright TeV Blazars with the MAGIC telescope F220 Fifteen Blazars in Very‐High Energy Gamma Rays: A Comparative Study F229 Numerical calculation of blazar spectra. Application to 1 ES 1218+30.4 F230 Blazar spectral energy distributions corrected for gamma ray attenuation F240 Observation of PG 1553+113 with the MAGIC Telescope F243 VHE Gamma‐Ray Flare of PKS2155‐304 detected by the MAGIC telescope F245 Observations of 3C279 with the MAGIC Telescope F258 Diffraction limited near infrared imaging spectroscopy of the NLR of NGC4151 相似文献
83.
84.
Characterizing the properties of dissolved organic matter isolated by XAD and C-18 solid phase extraction and ultrafiltration 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
85.
The isotopic composition of Ag and the concentration of Ag and Pd have been determined in Canyon Diablo (IA), Grant (IIIB), Hoba, Santa Clara, Tlacotepec and Warburton Range (IVB), Piñon and Deep Springs (anom.). Troilite from Grant and Santa Clara have also been analyzed. All of these meteorites, with the exception of Canyon Diablo, give in the metal phase that is greater than the terrestrial value with the enrichments of 107Ag ranging from ~2% to 212%. These data show that Ag of anomalous isotopic composition is common to all IVB and anomalous meteorites. The results on Grant suggest that the anomalies may be widespread including more common meteorite groups. There is a general correlation of with except for the data from FeS of Santa Clara. It is concluded that the excess 107Ag is the result of decay of 107Pd, a nuclide that is extinct at present with an abundance of of about 3 × 10?5. The troilite in Grant exhibits normal to within errors, a high Ag concentration and a low ratio of ~0.17. Grant metal has that is ~2% greater than normal and a high ratio of ~ 103. The data from Grant appear to represent a 107Pd-107Ag isochron and indicate that the cooling rate at elevated temperatures was sufficiently rapid to preserve substantial isotopic differences between metal and troilite. Troilite in Santa Clara was found to contain Ag with a very high ratio (108% above normal), an Ag concentration only a factor of three above the metal and a high value of ~1.3 × 104. The troilite has a higher than the metal. These data are not compatible with a simple model of in situ decay and subsequent local Ag redistribution between metal and troilite during cooling. These data suggest that Ag in Santa Clara and possibly other IVB meteorites is made up of almost pure 107Ag produced from 107Pd decay and 109Ag produced by nuclear reactions with only a small amount of “normal” Ag. This indicates an intense energetic particle bombardment history in the early solar system (~1020 p/m2) which occurred after the formation of small planetary bodies. We infer that a T-Tauri activity by the early sun contributed to some late stage “nucleosynthesis” and the heating of a dust cloud. In addition, implications on the early thermal evolution of iron meteorites are presented based on 107Pd decay and models of the cooling history. 相似文献
86.
This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained. 相似文献
87.
Katia Sanhueza-Pino Oliver Korup Ralf Hetzel Henry Munack Johannes T. Weidinger Stuart Dunning Cholponbek Ormukov Peter W. Kubik 《Quaternary Research》2011,76(3):295-304
Numerous large landslide deposits occur in the Tien Shan, a tectonically active intraplate orogen in Central Asia. Yet their significance in Quaternary landscape evolution and natural hazard assessment remains unresolved due to the lack of "absolute" age constraints. Here we present the first 10Be exposure ages for three prominent (> 107 m3) bedrock landslides that blocked major rivers and formed lakes, two of which subsequently breached, in the northern Kyrgyz Tien Shan. Three 10Be ages reveal that one landslide in the Alamyedin River occurred at 11–15 ka, which is consistent with two 14C ages of gastropod shells from reworked loess capping the landslide. One large landslide in Aksu River is among the oldest documented in semi-arid continental interiors, with a 10Be age of 63–67 ka. The Ukok River landslide deposit(s) yielded variable 10Be ages, which may result from multiple landslides, and inheritance of 10Be. Two 10Be ages of 8.2 and 5.9 ka suggest that one major landslide occurred in the early to mid-Holocene, followed by at least one other event between 1.5 and 0.4 ka. Judging from the regional glacial chronology, all three landslides have occurred between major regional glacial advances. Whereas Alamyedin and Ukok can be considered as postglacial in this context, Aksu is of interglacial age. None of the landslide deposits show traces of glacial erosion, hence their locations and 10Be ages mark maximum extents and minimum ages of glacial advances, respectively. Using toe-to-headwall altitude ratios of 0.4–0.5, we reconstruct minimum equilibrium-line altitudes that exceed previous estimates by as much as 400 m along the moister northern fringe of the Tien Shan. Our data show that deposits from large landslides can provide valuable spatio-temporal constraints for glacial advances in landscapes where moraines and glacial deposits have low preservation potential. 相似文献
88.
Claire Granier Bertrand Bessagnet Tami Bond Ariela D��Angiola Hugo Denier van der Gon Gregory J. Frost Angelika Heil Johannes W. Kaiser Stefan Kinne Zbigniew Klimont Silvia Kloster Jean-Fran?ois Lamarque Catherine Liousse Toshihiko Masui Frederik Meleux Aude Mieville Toshimasa Ohara Jean-Christophe Raut Keywan Riahi Martin G. Schultz Steven J. Smith Allison Thompson John van Aardenne Guido R. van der Werf Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2011,109(1-2):163-190
Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NOx and SO2 show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NOx emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO2 emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned. 相似文献
89.
The Darss–Zingst peninsula at the southern Baltic Sea is a typical wave-dominated barrier island system which includes an
outer barrier island and an inner lagoon. The formation of the Darss–Zingst peninsula dates back to the Littorina Transgression
onset about 8,000 cal BP. It originated from several discrete islands, has been reshaped by littoral currents, wind-induced
waves during the last 8,000 years and evolved into a complex barrier island system as today; thus, it may serve as an example
to study the coastal evolution under long-term climate change. A methodology for developing a long-term (decadal-to-centennial)
process-based morphodynamic model for the southern Baltic coastal environment is presented here. The methodology consists
of two main components: (1) a preliminary analysis of the key processes driving the morphological evolution of the study area
based on statistical analysis of meteorological data and sensitivity studies; (2) a multi-scale high-resolution process-based
model. The process-based model is structured into eight main modules. The two-dimensional vertically integrated circulation
module, the wave module, the bottom boundary layer module, the sediment transport module, the cliff erosion module and the
nearshore storm module are real-time calculation modules which aim at solving the short-term processes. A bathymetry update
module and a long-term control function set, in which the ‘reduction’ concepts and technique for morphological update acceleration
are implemented, are integrated to up-scale the effects of short-term processes to a decadal-to-centennial scale. A series
of multi-scale modelling strategies are implemented in the application of the model to the research area. Successful hindcast
of the coastline change of the Darss–Zingst peninsula for the last 300 years validates the modelling methodology. Model results
indicate that the coastline change of the Darss–Zingst peninsula is dominated by mechanisms acting on different time scales.
The coastlines of Darss and the island of Hiddensee are mainly reshaped by long-term effects of waves and longshore currents,
while the coastline change of the Zingst peninsula is due to a combination of long-term effects of waves and short-term effects
caused by wind storms. 相似文献
90.
In dynamo theory the toroidal velocity theorem in its classical version (Elsasser, Phys. Rev. 1946, vol. 69, pp. 106–116, Bullard and Gellman, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 1954, vol. A247, pp. 213–278) rules out dynamo action in a spherical conducting volume provided that the fluid is incompressible, the conductivity is uniform, and the velocity field is purely toroidal. We prove in this note that this result is robust in the sense that slight compressibility of the fluid, small non-radial variations and even large radial variations in conductivity, and the presence of a small non-toroidal velocity component do not invalidate the theorem. Moreover, by proper choice of the conductivity distribution modelling the conducting volume, small deviations from spherical symmetry of the conductor can also be taken into account. 相似文献