Offshore wind capital cost estimation in the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf—A reference class approach

Offshore wind power developed rapidly in Northern Europe in the first decade of the 21st century and is expected to spread to Southern Europe, North America and Asia before 2020. To date, no projects have been built offshore North America because of the high development costs and economic risk and uncertain profitability. The purpose of this paper is to review the development cost of constructing offshore wind farms to inform the U.S. market. The capital expenditures of a reference class of 18 European wind farms constructed after 2005 with monopile foundations are normalized to proxy U.S. capital cost. Regression models are developed to investigate the physical features that influence expenditures. U.S. capital costs are expected to range between $4 and $5.6 million/MW for projects built between 2012 and 2015. Capital costs increase with increasing water depth and steel prices. For most farm components, capital expenditures are expected to be similar in Europe and the U.S., but the installation markets differ and this may impact the reliability of the reference class approach.     

Coal Mining Induced Seismicity in the Ruhr Area, Germany

Over the last 25 years mining-induced seismicity in the Ruhr area has continuously been monitored by the Ruhr-University Bochum. About 1,000 seismic events with local magnitudes between 0.7 ≤ M _L ≤ 3.3 are located every year. For example, 1,336 events were located in 2006. General characteristics of induced seismicity in the entire Ruhr area are spatial and temporal correlation with mining activity and a nearly constant energy release per unit time. This suggests that induced stresses are released rapidly by many small events. The magnitude–frequency distribution follows a Gutenberg–Richter relation which is a result from combining distributions of single longwalls that themselves show large variability. A high b-value of about 2 was found indicating a lack of large magnitude events. Local analyses of single longwalls indicate that various factors such as local geology and mine layout lead to significant differences in seismicity. Stress redistribution acts very locally since differences on a small scale of some hundreds of meters are observed. A regional relation between seismic moment M ₀ and local magnitude M _L was derived. The magnitude–frequency distribution of a single longwall in Hamm was studied in detail and shows a maximum at M _L = 1.4 corresponding to an estimated characteristic source area of about 2,200 m². Sandstone layers in the hanging or foot wall of the active longwall might fail in these characteristic events. Source mechanisms can mostly be explained by shear failure of two different types above and below the longwall. Fault plane solutions of typical events are consistent with steeply dipping fracture planes parallel to the longwall face and nearly vertical dislocation in direction towards the goaf. We also derive an empirical relation for the decay of ground velocity with epicenter distance and compare maximum observed ground velocity to local magnitude. This is of considerable public interest because about 30 events larger than M _L ≥ 1.2 are felt each month by people living in the mining regions. Our relations, for example, indicate that an event in Hamm with a peak ground velocity of 6 mm/s which corresponds to a local magnitude M _L between 1.7 and 2.3 is likely to be felt within about 2.3 km radius from the event.     

Development of a modelling methodology for simulation of long-term morphological evolution of the southern Baltic coast

The Darss–Zingst peninsula at the southern Baltic Sea is a typical wave-dominated barrier island system which includes an outer barrier island and an inner lagoon. The formation of the Darss–Zingst peninsula dates back to the Littorina Transgression onset about 8,000 cal BP. It originated from several discrete islands, has been reshaped by littoral currents, wind-induced waves during the last 8,000 years and evolved into a complex barrier island system as today; thus, it may serve as an example to study the coastal evolution under long-term climate change. A methodology for developing a long-term (decadal-to-centennial) process-based morphodynamic model for the southern Baltic coastal environment is presented here. The methodology consists of two main components: (1) a preliminary analysis of the key processes driving the morphological evolution of the study area based on statistical analysis of meteorological data and sensitivity studies; (2) a multi-scale high-resolution process-based model. The process-based model is structured into eight main modules. The two-dimensional vertically integrated circulation module, the wave module, the bottom boundary layer module, the sediment transport module, the cliff erosion module and the nearshore storm module are real-time calculation modules which aim at solving the short-term processes. A bathymetry update module and a long-term control function set, in which the ‘reduction’ concepts and technique for morphological update acceleration are implemented, are integrated to up-scale the effects of short-term processes to a decadal-to-centennial scale. A series of multi-scale modelling strategies are implemented in the application of the model to the research area. Successful hindcast of the coastline change of the Darss–Zingst peninsula for the last 300 years validates the modelling methodology. Model results indicate that the coastline change of the Darss–Zingst peninsula is dominated by mechanisms acting on different time scales. The coastlines of Darss and the island of Hiddensee are mainly reshaped by long-term effects of waves and longshore currents, while the coastline change of the Zingst peninsula is due to a combination of long-term effects of waves and short-term effects caused by wind storms.     

Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980�C2010 period

Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x and SO₂ show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NO_x emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO₂ emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned.     

Pliocene climate change of the Southwest Pacific and the impact of ocean gateways

The transition from the early Pliocene “Warmhouse” towards the present “Icehouse” climate and the role of Gateway dynamics are intensively debated. Both, the constrictions of the Central American Seaway and the Indonesian Gateway affected ocean circulation and climate during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we use combined δ¹⁸O and Mg/Ca ratios of planktonic foraminifera (marine protozoa) from surface and subsurface levels to reconstruct the thermal structure and changes in salinities from the Southwest Pacific Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 590B from 6.5 to 2.5 Ma. Our data suggest a gradual cooling of ~ 2 °C and freshening of the sea surface during ~ 4.6–4 Ma with an increased meridional temperature gradient between the West Pacific Warm Pool and the Southwest Pacific when the closing of the Central American Seaway reached a critical threshold. After ~ 3.5 Ma, the restricted Indonesian Gateway might have amplified the East Australian Current, allowing enhanced heat transport towards the Southwest Pacific with reduced meridional temperature gradients when the global climate gradually cooled. At the same time our data suggest a cooling and freshening of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) or/and an increased northward flow of SAMW towards Site 590B, possibly a first step towards the present Antarctic Frontal System.     

The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Glacial advances constrained by Be exposure dating of bedrock landslides, Kyrgyz Tien Shan

Numerous large landslide deposits occur in the Tien Shan, a tectonically active intraplate orogen in Central Asia. Yet their significance in Quaternary landscape evolution and natural hazard assessment remains unresolved due to the lack of "absolute" age constraints. Here we present the first ¹⁰Be exposure ages for three prominent (> 10⁷ m³) bedrock landslides that blocked major rivers and formed lakes, two of which subsequently breached, in the northern Kyrgyz Tien Shan. Three ¹⁰Be ages reveal that one landslide in the Alamyedin River occurred at 11–15 ka, which is consistent with two ¹⁴C ages of gastropod shells from reworked loess capping the landslide. One large landslide in Aksu River is among the oldest documented in semi-arid continental interiors, with a ¹⁰Be age of 63–67 ka. The Ukok River landslide deposit(s) yielded variable ¹⁰Be ages, which may result from multiple landslides, and inheritance of ¹⁰Be. Two ¹⁰Be ages of 8.2 and 5.9 ka suggest that one major landslide occurred in the early to mid-Holocene, followed by at least one other event between 1.5 and 0.4 ka. Judging from the regional glacial chronology, all three landslides have occurred between major regional glacial advances. Whereas Alamyedin and Ukok can be considered as postglacial in this context, Aksu is of interglacial age. None of the landslide deposits show traces of glacial erosion, hence their locations and ¹⁰Be ages mark maximum extents and minimum ages of glacial advances, respectively. Using toe-to-headwall altitude ratios of 0.4–0.5, we reconstruct minimum equilibrium-line altitudes that exceed previous estimates by as much as 400 m along the moister northern fringe of the Tien Shan. Our data show that deposits from large landslides can provide valuable spatio-temporal constraints for glacial advances in landscapes where moraines and glacial deposits have low preservation potential.     

Haynesville Shale Well Performance and Development Potential

Louisiana’s Haynesville Shale is one of several unconventional gas plays that have been discovered in the U.S. in recent years and promise to dramatically change the course of future domestic energy development. The Haynesville Shale is the deepest, hottest, and highest pressured shale among the big four plays in the U.S. with drilling and completion cost ranging between 7 and7 and 10 million per well. The average Haynesville well has an initial production rate of 10 MMcfd and declines rapidly, producing 80% of its expected recovery during the first 2 years of production. The purpose of this article is to describe the productivity characteristics of Haynesville wells, project future production from the inventory of active wells, and assess production potential based on drilling scenarios. We offer statistical analysis of the wells drilled to date and construct type profiles to characterize the play. We estimate that the current inventory of Haynesville wells will produce 3 Tcf over their lifecycles, and within the next 3 years, cumulative build-out in the region will range between 3 and 9 Tcf. To maintain current gas production levels in the state, we estimate that about 550 shale gas wells per year will need to be brought online over the next 3 years.     

Intra-annual Variability in Primary Producer Groups and Nitrogen Dynamics in an Intermittently Closed Estuary Exposed to Mediterranean Climate

Nutrient dynamics in estuaries are temporally variable in response to changing physical–chemical conditions and biogeochemical processes involving primary producer groups such as phytoplankton, microphytobenthos, seagrass and macroalgae. In order to reveal intra-annual changes in the biomass of primary producer groups and associated changes in estuarine nutrient dynamics, we developed a box model, coupling water inflows and outflows and nitrogen dynamics in Wilson Inlet, a large, central-basin-dominated, intermittently closed estuary exposed to a Mediterranean climate in Western Australia. The model is calibrated and validated with monitoring data, aquatic plant biomass estimates and biogeochemical rate measurements. Macrophytes and their microalgal epiphytes appear to rapidly assimilate nutrients from the first flush from the catchment in winter, but this buffer capacity then ceases, and a phytoplankton ‘bloom’ develops in response to subsequent river runoff events in spring. Significant amounts of bioavailable nitrogen are exported to the ocean because phytoplankton predominance occurs while the sand bar is breached. Surface sediments play a key role for nitrogen dynamics: In late spring to autumn, high light availability at the sediment surface stimulates high primary production by microphytobenthos, leading to reduced benthic ammonium fluxes particularly in the deep basin. Microphytobenthos contributes about 60% of annual whole-system primary production. Despite high benthic primary production, nitrogen release from sediments is the biggest nitrogen source to the estuary.     

Geochemical studies of the SUBO 18 (Enkingen) drill core and other impact breccias from the Ries crater,Germany

Suevite and melt breccia compositions in the boreholes Enkingen and Polsingen are compared with compositions of suevites from other Ries boreholes and surface locations and discussed in terms of implications for impact breccia genesis. No significant differences in average chemical compositions for the various drill cores or surface samples are noted. Compositions of suevite and melt breccia from southern and northeastern sectors of the Ries crater do not significantly differ. This is in stark contrast to the published variations between within‐crater and out‐of‐crater suevites from northern and southern sectors of the Bosumtwi impact structure, Ghana. Locally occurring alteration overprint on drill cores—especially strong on the carbonate‐impregnated suevite specimens of the Enkingen borehole—does affect the average compositions. Overall, the composition of the analyzed impact breccias from Ries are characterized by very little macroscopically or microscopically recognized sediment‐clast component; the clast populations of suevite and impact melt breccia are dominated consistently by granitic and intermediate granitoid components. The Polsingen breccia is significantly enriched in a dioritic clast component. Overall, chemical compositions are of intermediate composition as well, with dioritic‐granodioritic silica contents, and relatively small contributions from mafic target components. Selected suevite samples from the Enkingen core have elevated Ni, Co, Cr, and Ir contents compared with previously analyzed suevites from the Ries crater, which suggest a small meteoritic component. Platinum‐group element (PGE) concentrations for some of the enriched samples indicate somewhat elevated concentrations and near‐chondritic ratios of the most immobile PGE, consistent with an extraterrestrial contribution of 0.1–0.2% chondrite‐equivalent.