Fifteen days of continuous activity survey at Stromboli volcano, Italy, in late September 2000: Doppler radar, seismicity, infrared, soil humidity, and mapping of the crater region

The intention of our study was to gain new insight into the complex interplay between different types of eruption of the Stromboli volcano by combining detailed field observation with different geophysical methods. We recorded more than 600 eruptions by use of continuous Doppler radar measurements. We detected the onset of the seismic precursor and the beginning of the visible eruption by use of seismic and infrared data. Two soil samples per day were used to monitor the effect of humidity on the eruptive style. We mapped the crater region as a reference base for the long-term morphological changes of the active region and for the exact positions of our measurement systems. Two distinct types of eruption were distinguished from each other on the basis of seismic and radar data - short, wide-angle Strombolian explosions and pulsating, sharp angle fountain-like eruptions. Data and visual observations imply that weather conditions significantly effect volcanic activity. We also interpret the intensification of eruptive activity during our field study as replenishment of the reservoir with a new batch of magma in late September 2000.     

Analyses of organic and inorganic contaminants in Salton Sea fish

Chemical contamination of fish from the Salton Sea, a quasi-marine lake in Southern California, could adversely impact millions of birds using the Pacific Flyway and thousands of humans using the lake for recreation. Bairdiella icistia (bairdiella), Cynoscion xanthulus (orangemouth corvina), and Oreochromis spp. (tilapia) were sampled from two river mouths and two nearshore areas of the Salton Sea. Muscle tissues were analyzed for a complete suite of 14 trace metals and 53 pesticides. Fish muscle tissues had concentrations of selenium ranging between 1.89 and 2.73 microg/g wet weight. 4,4'-DDE accounted for 94% of the total DDT metabolites. Total DDTs ranged between 17.1 and 239.0 and total PCBs between 2.5 and 18.6 ng/g wet weight. PCB congeners 132, 138, 153, 168, and 180 comprised over 50% of the total PCBs. Given the potential implementation of a commercial fishing at the Salton Sea in the future, the presence of persistent organic pollutants and selenium warrants further research into the effects of these mixtures on fish populations, and on wildlife and humans consuming fish.     

Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models

The coastal zones are facing the prospect of changing storm surge statistics due to anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we examine these prospects for the North Sea based on numerical modelling. The main tool is the barotropic tide-surge model TRIMGEO (Tidal Residual and Intertidal Mudflat Model) to derive storm surge climate and extremes from atmospheric conditions. The analysis is carried out by using an ensemble of four 30-year atmospheric regional simulations under present-day and possible future-enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. The atmospheric regional simulations were prepared within the EU project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). The research strategy of PRUDENCE is to compare simulations of different regional models driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 were prepared by the Hadley Center based on the IPCC A2 SRES scenario. The results suggest that under future climatic conditions, storm surge extremes may increase along the North Sea coast towards the end of this century. Based on a comparison between the results of the different ensemble members as well as on the variability estimated from a high-resolution storm surge reconstruction of the recent decades it is found that this increase is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level for most of the North Sea coast. An exception represents the East coast of the UK which is not affected by this increase of storm surge extremes.     

Quantification of carbon flow from stable isotope fractionation in rice field soils with different organic matter content

Rice fields are an important source for the greenhouse gas methane produced by acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Fractionation of ¹³C/¹²C can in principle be used to quantify the relative contribution of these pathways, but our knowledge of isotopic fractionation during reduction of CO₂ and turnover of acetate in different methanogenic environments is still scarce. We therefore measured δ¹³C signatures in two types of anoxic Italian rice field soils, one with high and one with low degradable organic matter (OM) content. Both soils were incubated in the presence and absence of methyl fluoride, a specific inhibitor of acetoclastic methanogenesis. Optimization of methyl fluoride concentration resulted in complete inhibition of acetoclastic methanogenesis. CH₄ was then exclusively produced by hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis, allowing determination of the isotopic signatures and fractionation factors specific for this methanogenic pathway. Acetate, which was then no longer consumed, accumulated and was used for determination of the isotopic signature of the fermentatively produced acetate (both total acetate and methyl carbon of acetate). Hence, all isotopic signatures, including fractionation factors were determined for the methanogenic soil. These data, were then used for computation of the relative contribution of the two methanogenic pathways. In the high OM soil, the contribution of acetoclastic methanogenesis to total CH₄ production increased simultaneously with decreasing acetate concentration. In the low OM soil, methanogenesis from H₂/CO₂ was clearly greater than theoretically expected. Furthermore, isotope fractionation of hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis indicated that the in situ energy status of methanogens strongly depended on the availability of organic carbon in the rice field soil system. Collectively, our data show that the study of isotopic fractionation in methanogenic environments allows a deeper insight into the ongoing processes, which may be quite different in the same ecosystem with different content of degradable OM.     

Estimation of Block Sizes for Rock Masses with Non-persistent Joints

Summary  Discontinuities or joints in the rock mass have various shapes and sizes. Along with the joint orientation and spacing, the joint persistence, or the relative size of the joint, is one of the most important factors in determining the block sizes of jointed rock masses. Although the importance of joint persistence on the overall rock mass strength has long been identified, the impact of persistence on rock strength is in most current rock mass classification systems underrepresented. If joints are assumed to be persistent, as is the case in most designs, the sizes of the rock blocks tend to be underestimated. This can lead to more removable blocks than actually exist in-situ. In addition, a poor understanding of the rock bridge strength may lead to lower rock mass strengths, and consequently, to excessive expenditure on rock support. In this study, we suggest and verify a method for the determination of the block sizes considering joint persistence. The idea emerges from a quantitative approach to apply the GSI system for rock mass classification, in which the accurate block size is required. There is a need to statistically analyze how the distribution of rock bridges according to the combination of joint orientation, spacing, and persistence will affect the actual size of each individual block. For this purpose, we generate various combinations of joints with different geometric conditions by the orthogonal arrays using the distinct element analysis tools of UDEC and 3DEC. Equivalent block sizes (areas in 2D and volumes in 3D) and their distributions are obtained from the numerical simulation. Correlation analysis is then performed to relate the block sizes predicted by the empirical equation to those obtained from the numerical model simulation. The results support the concept of equivalent block size proposed by Cai et al. (2004, Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., 41(1), 3–19).     

The Bayesian approach to an internally consistent thermodynamic database: theory, database, and generation of phase diagrams

An internally consistent thermodynamic dataset has been derived for 148 endmember phases (145 solids and 3 fluids) comprising the elements Li, Na, K, Be, Mg, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Zn, Al, Si, C, H, and O. This has been achieved by simultaneous treatment of phase property (like standard enthalpy of formation, standard entropy, molar heat capacity, molar volume, thermal expansivity, bulk modulus etc.) and reaction reversal data by the Bayesian method. The theory underlying the approach, and the computational methods involved, are briefly outlined. (For the benefit of readers unfamiliar with inference statistics, the basic concepts of the Bayes method are also presented in such a way that they can be grasped intuitively.) Although not yet addressed, this method can be extended to refine the thermodynamic mixing properties of crystalline solutions. The sources of the input data, culled from the literature, are summarized in the Appendix. The resulting database is succinctly documented in this paper. It includes the enthalpies of formation and entropies, their uncertainties, and the correlation among them. The database allows calculation of P-T, T-X _CO2, P-X _CO2, and T-f _O2 sections, with error propagation into the computed phase diagrams on a routine basis. A user-friendly computer program has been written to generate such phase diagrams. It is public domain software. The software and the thermodynamic database (which includes a complete documentation of the thermodynamic data above and beyond those listed (Table 2, here) may be downloaded from the web site http://homepage.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/niranjan.chatterjee/Index.htm. Examples of computed phase diagrams are given to illustrate the quality of the data and the capabilities of the software. Received: 11 March 1998 / Accepted: 11 June 1998     

Comparison of Galerkin-type discretization techniques for two-phase flow in heterogeneous porous media

A comparison of Standard Galerkin, Petrov-Galerkin, and Fully-Upwind Galerkin methods for the simulation of two-phase flow in heterogeneous porous media is presented. On the basis of the coupled pressure-saturation equations, a generalized formulation for all three finite element methods is derived and analysed. For flow in homogeneous media, the Petrov-Galerkin method gives excellent results. But this method fails miserably for problems with heterogeneous media. This is because it is not able to capture correctly processes that take place at interfaces when, for instance, the capillary pressure-saturation relationship after Brooks and Corey is assumed. The Fully-Upwind Galerkin method is superior to the Petrov-Galerkin approach because it is able to give correct results for flow in homogeneous and heterogeneous media for the two models of van Genuchten and Brooks-Corey. The widely used formulation which is correct for the homogeneous case cannot be used for heterogeneous media. Instead the straightforward approach of gradp_c in combination with a chord-slope technique must be utilized.     

The lower symmetric regime and its transition to waves in rotating annulus convection

Measurements of the temperature and zonal velocity fields which develop in a rotating annulus of fluid with an upper surface, differentially heated from the inner to outer cylinder, are described for the lower symmetric regime (small radial temperature differences). The temperature field is essentially conductive for moderate to large rotation rates, Ω (>1.0 sec⁻¹). The zonal velocity field is poorly approximated by the thermal wind equation.Measurements of the transition to waves from the lower symmetric regime at very large rotation rates are presented for positive and negative radial temperature differences. They suggest that the centrifugal buoyancy force and the free surface curvature may be important factors for the lower symmetric-wave transition at large Ω. By varying the stratification of the fluid over a range of 10³ independently of the radial temperature difference, Δr_wT, it is conclusively shown that several theories are correct in predicting that the lower symmetric transition is independent of the stratification at small Δr_wT > 0 for large enough Ω.     

Charcoal and fossil wood from palaeosols,sediments and artificial structures indicating Late Holocene woodland decline in southern Tibet (China)

Charcoal and fossil wood taken from palaeosols, sediments and artificial structures were analysed in order to evaluate the regional pedoanthracological potential and to obtain information on Holocene environmental changes, particularly on possible past tree occurrences in southern Tibet. This research was initiated by the question to what extent this area is influenced by past human impact. Even recent evaluations have perceived the present treeless desertic environment of southern Tibet as natural, and the previous Holocene palaeoenvironmental changes detected were predominantly interpreted to be climate-determined. The material analysed – comprising a total of 53 botanical spectra and 55 radiocarbon datings from 46 sampling sites (c. 3500–4700 m a.s.l.) – represents the largest systematically obtained data set of charcoal available from Tibet so far. 27 taxa were determined comprising trees, (dwarf-) shrubs and herbs as well as grasses. The predominant tree taxa were Juniperus, Hippophae, Salix and Betula. According to their present-day occurrence in the region, the genera Juniperus and Hippophae can be explicitly attributed to tree species. Further, less frequently detected tree taxa were Populus, Pinus, Quercus, Taxus and Pseudotsuga. Charcoal of Juniperus mainly occurred on southern exposures, whereas Betula was associated with northern exposures. In contrast, the (partly) phreatophytic taxa Hippophae and Salix showed no prevalent orientation. The distribution of radiocarbon ages on charcoal revealed a discontinuous record of burning events cumulating in the Late Holocene (c. 5700–0 cal BP). For southern Tibet, these results indicated a Late Holocene vegetation change from woodlands to the present desertic pastures. As agrarian economies in southern and south-eastern Tibet date back to c. 3700 and 5700 cal BP, respectively, and the present-day climate is suitable for tree growth up to c. 4600 m a.s.l., we concluded that the Late Holocene loss or thinning out of woodlands had been primarily caused by humans.