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121.
Clar  Christoph  Löschner  Lukas  Nordbeck  Ralf  Fischer  Tatjana  Thaler  Thomas 《Natural Hazards》2021,105(2):1765-1796
Natural Hazards - This contribution explores the conceptual and empirical linkages between population dynamics and natural hazard risk management (NHRM). Following a review of the international...  相似文献   
122.
The paper presents an approach towards a medium-term (decades) modelling of water levels and currents in a shallow tidal sea by means of combined hydrodynamic and neural network models. The two-dimensional version of the hydrodynamic model Delft3D, forced with realistic water level and wind fields, is used to produce a two-year-database of water levels and currents in the study area. The linear principal component analysis (PCA) of the results is performed to reveal dominating spatial patterns in the analyzed dataset and to significantly reduce the dimensionality of the data. It is shown that only a few principal components (PCs) are necessary to reconstruct the data with high accuracy (over 95% of the original variance). Feed-forward neural networks are set up and trained to effectively simulate the leading PCs based on water level and wind speed and direction time series in a single, arbitrarily chosen point in the study area. Assuming that the spatial modes resulting from the PCA are ‘universally’ applicable to the data from time periods not modelled with Delft3D, the trained neural networks can be used to very effectively and reliably simulate temporal and spatial variability of water levels and currents in the study area. The approach is shown to be able to accurately reproduce statistical distribution of water levels and currents in various locations inside the study area and thus can be viewed as a reliable complementary tool e.g., for computationally expensive hydrodynamic modelling. Finally, a detailed analysis of the leading PCs is performed to estimate the role of tidal forcing and wind (including its seasonal and annual variability) in shaping the water level and current climate in the study area.  相似文献   
123.
The analysis of WIND/WAVES RAD2 spectra with fine structure in the form of different fibers in 14 events covering 1997?–?2005 is carried out. A splitting of broad bands of the interplanetary (IP) type II bursts into narrow band fibers of different duration is observed. The instantaneous-frequency bandwidth of fibers is stable: 200?–?300 kHz for slow-drifting fibers in type II bursts, and 700?–?1000 kHz for fast-drifting fibers in type II?+?IV (continuum). Intermediate drift bursts (IDB or fiber bursts) and zebra patterns with variable frequency drift of stripes, typical for the metric range, were not found. Comparison of spectra with the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (SOHO/LASCO C2) images shows a connection of the generation of the fiber structures with the passage of shock fronts through narrow jets in the wake of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME). Therefore the most probable emission mechanism of fibers in IP type II bursts appears to be resonance transition radiation (RTR) of fast particles at the boundary of two media with different refractive indices. The same mechanism is also valid for striae in the type III bursts. Taking into account a high-density contrast in the CME wake and the actually observed small-scale inhomogeneities, the effectiveness of the RTR mechanism in IP space must be considerably higher than in the meter or decimeter wavelengths. For the most part the fibers in the type IV continuum at frequencies of 14?–?8 MHz were seen as the direct expansion of similar fine structure (as fibers or “herringbone” structure) in the decametric range observed with the Nançay and IZMIRAN spectrographs.  相似文献   
124.
Storm-related sea level variations 1958–2002 along the North Sea coast from a high-resolution numerical hindcast are investigated and compared to the results of earlier studies. Considerable variations were found from year to year and over the entire period. The large-scale pattern of these variations is consistent with that derived from previous studies, while the magnitudes of the long-term trends differ. The latter is attributed to different analysis periods, improvements in the atmospheric forcing, and the enhanced spatial resolution of the numerical simulation. It is shown that the different analysis periods, in particular, represent an issue as the increase in storm-related sea levels was found to be weaker over the last few years that have not been included in earlier studies. These changes are consistent with observed changes of the storm climate over the North Sea. It is also shown that observed and hindcast trends may differ significantly. While the latter are in agreement with observed changes in the storm climate, it may be concluded that observed sea level changes along the North Sea coast comprise a considerable fraction that cannot be attributed to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation.
Ralf WeisseEmail:
  相似文献   
125.
Most states levy severance taxes on the value of natural resources when they are severed or extracted from the ground or subsurface. In Louisiana, severance tax on oil and gas production contributes to the majority of mineral revenue in the state, and over the last decade, has ranged between $400 million and $1.1 billion, or between 5 and 9% of annual state revenue. The purpose of this article is to develop a forecast model for severance tax revenue to better understand the severance tax regime and to assist in state budgeting and planning purposes. We couple an oil and gas production model with empirical relationships describing historical severance tax receipts to perform the forecast. We demonstrate that oil production correlations are robust, but that in recent years, unconventional gas production from the Haynesville shale has led to a significant departure from historic trends. We estimate that cumulative oil and gas severance tax revenues during 2011–2015 will range from $1.0 to $2.1 billion for oil and $1.3–$1.9 billion for gas. Louisiana is transforming into a gas-producing state, and more attention needs to be paid to tax design and the impact of exemptions on future severance revenue receipts.  相似文献   
126.
The allocation of CO2 emissions to specific sources is a major policy issue for international aviation, especially for determining allocations for emissions trading schemes. This paper addresses the problem by recommending a possible methodology to allocate emissions to specific sources using detailed air traffic data. The basis for the calculations is an air traffic sample for one full-day of traffic from the UK. In order to analyse aircraft fuel burn use and hence CO2 emissions, the Reorganized Air Traffic Control Mathematical Simulator (RAMS Plus) and the Advanced Emission Model (AEM III) are used. The results from these detailed simulations are compared with two of the most widely-used aviation CO2 emission estimates to have been made for the UK: the SERAS study and NETCEN estimate. Their estimates for the year 2000 are 26.1 and 31.4 Mt, respectively. In addition, the most recent NETCEN estimate for the year 2003 is 34.1 Mt of CO2. Our estimate of total aviation CO2 emissions, using detailed simulations and real air traffic data, is 34.7 Mt for the year 2004. In addition, emission estimates are compared with two global aviation emission inventories: AERO2K and SAGE. Contributions of the highest-emitting flights and aircraft types are identified. International departures dominate; 6% of flights account for 50% of total emissions. The largest aircraft emit the most per flight-km, although not per passenger-km. Different methodologies and their implications are also discussed.  相似文献   
127.
Pale-blue to pale-green tourmalines from the contact zone of Permian pegmatites to mica schists and marbles from different localities of the Austroalpine basement units (Rappold Complex) in Styria, Austria, are characterized. All these Mg-rich tourmalines have small but significant Li contents, up to 0.29 wt% Li2O, and can be characterized as dravite, with FeO contents of ?~?0.9–2.7 wt%. Their chemical composition varies from X (Na0.67Ca0.19?K0.02?0.12) Y (Mg1.26Al0.97Fe2+ 0.36Li0.19Ti4+ 0.06Zn0.01?0.15) Z (Al5.31?Mg0.69) (BO3)3 Si6O18 V (OH)3? W [F0.66(OH)0.34], with a?=?15.9220(3), c?=?7.1732(2) Å to X (Na0.67Ca0.24?K0.02?0.07) Y (Mg1.83Al0.88Fe2+ 0.20Li0.08Zn0.01Ti4+ 0.01?0.09) Z (Al5.25?Mg0.75) (BO3)3 Si6O18 V (OH)3? W [F0.87(OH)0.13], with a?=?15.9354(4), c?=?7.1934(4) Å, and they show a significant Al-Mg disorder between the Y and the Z sites (R1?=?0.013–0.015). There is a positive correlation between the Ca content and?<?Y-O?>?distance for all investigated tourmalines (r?≈?1.00), which may reflect short-range order configurations including Ca and Fe2+, Mg, and Li. The tourmalines have XMg (XMg?=?Mg/Mg?+?Fetotal) values in the range 0.84–0.95. The REE patterns show more or less pronounced negative Eu and positive Yb anomalies. In comparison to tourmalines from highly-evolved pegmatites, the tourmaline samples from the border zone of the pegmatites of the Rappold Complex contain relatively low amounts of total REE (~8–36 ppm) and Th (0.1–1.8 ppm) and have low LaN/YbN ratios. There is a positive correlation (r?≈?0.91) between MgO of the tourmalines and the MgO contents of the surrounding mica schists. We conclude that the pegmatites formed by anatectic melting of mica schists and paragneisses in Permian time. The tourmalines crystallized from the pegmatitic melt, influenced by the metacarbonate and metapelitic host rocks.  相似文献   
128.
This paper provides the first measurements of the nitrogen (N) concentrations and isotopic compositions of high- and ultrahigh-pressure mafic eclogites, aimed at characterizing the subduction input flux of N in deeply subducting altered oceanic crust (AOC). The samples that were studied are from the Raspas Complex (Ecuador), Lago di Cignana (Italy), the Zambezi Belt (Zambia) and Cabo Ortegal (Spain), together representing subduction to 50-90 km depths. The eclogites contain 2-20 ppm N with δ15Nair values ranging from −1 to +8‰. These values overlap those of altered oceanic crust, but are distinct from values for fresh MORB (for the latter, ∼1.1 ppm N and δ15Nair ∼ −4‰). Based on N data in combination with other trace element data, the eclogite suites can be subdivided into those that are indistinguishable from their likely protolith, AOC, with or without superimposed effects of devolatilization (Lago di Cignana, Cabo Ortegal), and those that have experienced metasomatic additions during subduction-zone metamorphism (Zambezi Belt, Raspas). For the former group, the lack of a detectable loss of N in the eclogites, compared to various altered MORB compositions, suggests the retention of N in deeply subducted oceanic crust. The metasomatic effects affecting the latter group can be best explained by mixing with a (meta)sedimentary component, resulting in correlated enrichments of N and other trace elements (in particular, Ba and Pb) thought to be mobilized during HP/UHP metamorphism. Serpentinized and high-pressure metamorphosed peridotites, associated with the eclogites at Raspas and Cabo Ortegal, contain 3-15 ppm N with δ15Nair values ranging from +3 to +6‰, significantly higher than the generally accepted values for the MORB mantle (δ15Nair ∼ −5‰). Based on their relatively high N contents and their homogeneous and positive δ15N values, admixing of sedimentary N is also indicated for the serpentinized peridotites.One possible pathway for the addition of sediment-derived N into eclogites and peridotites involves mixing with fluids along the slab-mantle wedge interface. Alternatively, sedimentary N could be incorporated into peridotites during serpentinization at bending-related faults at the outer rise and, during later deserpentinization, released into fluids that then infiltrate overlying rocks. Deep retention of N in subducting oceanic crust should be considered in any attempt to balance subduction inputs with outputs in the form of arc volcanic gases. If materials such as these eclogites and serpentinized peridotites are eventually subducted to beyond sub-arc depths into the deeper mantle, containing some fraction of their forearc-subarc N inventory (documented here), they could deliver isotopically heavy N into the mantle to potentially be sampled by plume-related magmas.  相似文献   
129.
The Spessart district (SW Germany), located at the southwestern margin of the Permian Kupferschiefer basin in Central Europe, hosts abundant stratabound and structurally controlled base metal mineralization. The mineralization styles identified are (1) stratabound Cu-Pb-Zn-(Ag) ores in Zechstein sedimentary rocks, (2) structurally controlled Cu-As-(Ag) ores in Zechstein sedimentary rocks, (3) crosscutting Co-Ni-(Bi)-As and Cu-Fe-As veins, (4) stratabound metasomatic Fe-Mn carbonate ores in Zechstein dolomite, (5) barren barite veins, and (6) Fe-Mn-As veins in Permian rhyolites. Building on previous work that involved mineralogical, textural, and chemical characterization of the major mineralization types, we have performed a comprehensive sulfur isotope study that applied both conventional and novel laser-ablation multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry techniques. The δ34S values of sulfide minerals from the different ore types are consistently negative and highly variable, in the range between −44.5‰ and −3.9‰, whereas the δ34S values of barite are all positive in the range between 4.7‰ and 18.9‰. Remarkably, stratabound and structurally controlled mineralization in Zechstein sedimentary rocks has the least negative δ34S values, whereas vein-type deposits have consistently more negative δ34S values. The observed pattern of sulfide δ34S values can be best interpreted in terms of fluid mixing at the basement-cover interface. Hydrothermal fluids originating from the crystalline basement migrated upward along subvertical fault zones and were periodically injected into groundwaters that were flowing in the post-Variscan sedimentary cover. These groundwaters had interacted with the Zechstein sedimentary rocks, resulting in fluids characterized by elevated concentrations of reduced sulfur (with negative δ34S values) and alkaline pH. Repeated mixing between both chemically contrasting fluids caused rapid and efficient precipitation of sulfide ore minerals in hydrothermal veins with highly variable but distinctly negative δ34S values.  相似文献   
130.
On January 23, 2006, the Cassini/RPWS (Radio and Plasma Wave Science) instrument detected a massive outbreak of SEDs (Saturn Electrostatic Discharges). The following SED storm lasted for about one month and consisted of 71 consecutive episodes. It exceeded all other previous SED observations by Cassini as well as by the Voyagers with regard to number and rate of detected events. At the same time astronomers at the Earth as well as Cassini/ISS (Imaging Science Subsystem) detected a distinctive bright atmospheric cloud feature at a latitude of 35° South, strongly confirming the current interpretation of SEDs being the radio signatures of lightning flashes in Saturn's atmosphere. In this paper we will analyze the main physical properties of this SED storm and of a single small SED storm from 2005. The giant SED storm of 2006 had maximum burst rates of 1 SED every 2 s, its episodes lasted for 5.5 h on average, and the episode's periodicity of about 10.66 h exactly matched the period of the ISS observed cloud feature. Using the low frequency cutoff of SED episodes we determined an ionospheric electron density around 104 cm−3 for the dawn side of Saturn.  相似文献   
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