An early estimate for the size of cycle 23

Two features are found in the modern era sunspot record (cycles 10–22: ca. 1850-present) that may prove useful for gauging the size of cycle 23, the next sunspot cycle, several years ahead of its actual onset. These features include an inferred long-term increase against time of maximum amplitude (RM, the maximum value of smoothed sunspot number for a cycle) and the apparently inherent differing natures of even- and odd-numbered sunspot cycles, especially when grouped consecutively as even-odd cycle pairs. Concerning the first feature, one finds that 6 out of the last 6 sunspot cycles have had RM 110.6 (the median value for the modern era record) and that 4 out of 6 have had RM > 150. Presuming this trend to continue, one anticipates that cycle 23 will likewise have RM 110.6 and, perhaps, RM > 150. Concerning the second feature, one finds that, when one groups sunspot cycles into consecutively paired even-odd cycles, the odd-following cycle has always been the larger cycle, 6 out of 6 times. Because cycle 22 had RM = 158.5, one anticipates that cycle 23 will have RM > 158.5. Additionally, because the average difference between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles is 40.3 units (sd = 14.2), one expects cycle 23 to have RM 162.3 (RM = 198.8 ± 36.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Further, because of the rather strong linear correlation (r = 0,959, se = 13.5) found between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles, one infers that cycle 23 should have RM 176.4 (RM = 213.9 ± 37.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Since large values of RM tend to be associated with fast rising cycles of short ascent duration and high levels of 10.7-cm solar radio flux, cycle 23 is envisioned to be potentially one of the greatest cycles of the modern era, if not the greatest.     

The role of overwash in the evolution of mixing zone morphology within barrier islands

Overwash is a major controlling factor in the morphology of the mixing zone of coastal aquifers. Conceptual models of the mixing zone describe an interface controlled by tidal oscillations, wave run-up, and other factors; however, few describe the influence of large storm events. In August 1993, Hatteras Island, North Carolina, USA, experienced a 3-m storm surge due to Hurricane Emily. Sound-side flooding infiltrated a wellfield, causing a dramatic increase in TDS levels that persisted for more than 3 years. Two-dimensional simulations with SUTRA, the USGS finite-element model, are calibrated to the TDS breakthrough data of this storm to infer model dispersivity values. Simulations using the calibrated dispersivity values, predicted flooding levels, and 54 years of hurricane records to determine the influence of the overwash events suggest that it is rare for the mixing zone to approximate the conceptual morphology. Even during quiescent periods such as between 1965 and 1975, TDS levels do not return to theoretical levels before being elevated by a subsequent storm event. Thus, while tidal oscillations and other factors are important to mixing zone development, basic wind events and more severe storm events may have more influence and lasting effect on the morphology of the mixing zone.     

Textures in a poikilitic olivine gabbro cumulate: Evidence for supercooling

Summary Supercooling of repeated influxes of high-MgO ( 13.5 wt% MgO) tholeiitic magma emplaced along the floor of the Kap Edvard Holm magma chamber led to the formation of fine grained, intraplutonic quench zones that define the bases of 12 macrorhythmic units. The quench zones grade upwards into poikilitic cumulates containing olivine dendrites, suggesting supercooling by 40°C. Supercooling led to early, precumulus crystallization of metastable, non-equilibrium plagioclase, followed by co-precipitation of cumulus plagioclase and olivine. Later nucleation of clinopyroxene followed by rapid growth led to crystallization of zoned oikocrysts during the cumulus stage, followed by postcumulus overgrowth and crystallization of discrete intercumulus grains. At least four generations of plagioclase crystals appear to be preserved.

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Gefüge in einem poikilitischen Olivingabbro-Kumulat: Hinweis auf Unterkühlung

Zusammenfassung Unterkühlung von mehrmals nachströmendem MgO-reichen (ca. 13,5 Gew.% MgO), tholeiitischen Magma, das sich am Boden der Magmenkammer vom Kap Edvard Holm sammelte, führte zur Bildung von feinkbrnigen Zonen mit Abschreckungsgefüge, die jeweils die Basis von 12 makrorhythmischen Einheiten bilden. Diese Zonen gehen im Hangenden in poikilitische Kumulate über, die Olivin-Dendriten enthalten, was auf eine Unterkühlung um ca. 40°C hindeutet. Die Unterkühlung führte zu einer frühen präkumulativen Kristallisation von metastabilem, nicht im Gleichgewicht befindlichem Plagioklas, gefolgt von gleichzeitiger Präzipitation von Kumulus-Plagioklas und -Olivin. Eine spätere Keimbildung von Klinopyroxen, die von raschem Wachstum abgelöst wurde, führte während der Akkumulation zur Kristallisation von zonierten Oikokrysten. Danach folgte eine postkumulative Überwachsung und die Kristallisation von Einzelkörnern in den Zwischenräumen. Zumindest vier Generationen von Plagioklaskristallen scheinen erhalten zu sein.

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With 5 Figures     

On the use of ‘first spotless day’ as a predictor for sunspot minimum

Defining the first spotless day of a sunspot cycle as the first day without spots relative to sunspot maximum during the decline of the solar cycle, one finds that the timing of that occurrence can be used as a predictor for the occurrence of solar minimum of the following cycle. For cycle 22, the first spotless day occurred in April 1994, based on the International sunspot number index, although other indices (Boulder and American) indicated the first spotless day to have occurred earlier (September 1993). For cycles 9–14, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 72 months, having a range of 62–82 months; for cycles 15–21, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 35 months, having a range of 27–40 months. Similarly, the timing of first spotless day relative to sunspot minimum and maximum for the same cycle reveals that it followed minimum (maximum) by about 69 (18) months during cycles 9–14 and by about 90 (44) months during cycles 15–21. Accepting April 1994 as the month of first spotless day occurrence for cycle 22, one finds that it occurred 91 months into the cycle and 57 months following sunspot maximum. Such values indicate that its behavior more closely matches that found for cycles 15–21 rather than for cycles 9–14. Therefore, one infers that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 will occur in about 2–3 years, or about April 1996 to April 1997. Accepting the earlier date of first spotless day occurrence indicates that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 could come several months earlier, perhaps late 1995.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Coronal changes associated with a disappearing filament

This paper describes Skylab/ATM observations of the events associated with a disappearing filament near the center of the solar disk on January 18, 1974. As the filament disappeared, the nearby coronal plasma was heated to a temperature in excess of 6 × 10⁶K. A change in the pattern of coronal emission occurred during the 11/3 hr period that the soft X-ray flux was increasing. This change seemed to consist of the formation and apparent expansion of a loop-like coronal structure which remained visible until its passage around the west limb several days later. The time history of the X-ray and microwave radio flux displayed the well-known gradual-rise-and-fall (GRF) signature, suggesting that this January 18 event may have properties characteristic of a wide class of X-ray and radio events.In pursuit of this idea, we examined other spatially-resolved Skylab/ATM observations of long-duration X-ray events to see what characteristics they may have in common. Nineteen similar long-lived SOLRAD X-ray events having either the GRF or post-burst radio classification occurred during the nine-month Skylab mission. Sixteen of these occurred during HAO/ATM coronagraph observations, and 7 of these 16 events occurred during observations with both the NRL/ATM slitless spectrograph and the MSFC-A/ATM X-ray telescope. The tabulation of these events suggests that all long-lived SOLRAD X-ray bursts involve transients in the outer corona and that at least two-thirds of the bursts involve either the eruption or major activation of a prominence. Also, these observations indicate that long-lived SOLARD events are characterized by the appearance of new loops of emission in the lower corona during the declining phase of the X-ray emission. However, sometimes these loops disappear after the X-ray event (like the post-flare loops associated with a sporadic coronal condensation), and sometimes the loops remain indefinitely (like the emission from a permanent coronal condensation).Visiting Scientist, Kitt Peak National Observatory, Tucson, Ariz. 85726, U.S.A. operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation.Presently located at NASA/MSFC, Space Sciences Laboratory, Marshall Space Flight Center, Ala. 35812, U. S.A.     

The role of prokaryotes in subsurface weathering of hydrothermal sediments: A combined geochemical and microbiological investigation

A detailed geochemical and microbiological study of a ∼2 m sediment core from the inactive Alvin mounds within the TAG hydrothermal field was conducted to examine, for the first time, the role of prokaryotes in subsurface weathering of hydrothermal sediments. Results show that there has been substantial post-depositional remobilisation of metal species and diagenetic overprinting of the original high-temperature hydrothermal minerals, and aspects have involved prokaryotic processes. Prokaryotic enumeration demonstrates the presence of a population smaller than the average for deep sea sediments, probably due to the low organic carbon content, but not inhibited by (and hence adapted to) the metal rich environment. There was a small but significant increase in population size associated with the active redox boundary in an upper metal sulphide layer (50-70 cm) around which active metal remobilisation was concentrated (Cu, Au, Cd, Ag, U, Zn and Zn). Hence, subsurface prokaryotes were potentially obtaining energy from metal metabolism in this near surface zone. Close association of numbers of culturable Mn and Fe reducing prokaryotes with subsurface Fe²⁺ and Mn²⁺ pore water profiles suggested active prokaryotic metal reduction at depth in core CD102/43 (to ∼175 cm). In addition, a prokaryotic mechanism, which is associated with bacterial sulphate reduction, is invoked to explain the U enrichment on pyrite surfaces and Zn and Pb remobilisation in the upper sediment. Although prokaryotic populations are present throughout this metalliferous sediment, thermodynamic calculations indicated that the inferred low pH of pore waters and the suboxic/anoxic conditions limits the potential energy available from Fe(II) oxidation, which may restrict prokaryotic chemolithotrophic biomass. This suggests that intense prokaryotic Fe oxidation and weathering of seafloor massive sulphide deposits may be restricted to the upper portion of the deposit that is influenced by near neutral pH and oxic seawater unless there is significant subsurface fluid flow.     

Changes in the circulation of Tampa Bay due to Hurricane Frances as recorded by ADCP measurements and reproduced with a numerical Ocean model

Hurricane Frances is shown to greatly alter the hydrodynamics within Tampa Bay, Florida, and the exchange of water with the Gulf of Mexico in both observational data and a realistic numerical circulation model of the Tampa Bay estuary. Hurricane Frances hit Tampa Bay on September 5, 2004 with surface winds peaking twice near 22 m s⁻¹. There were three stages to the hydrodynamic effect of Frances on Tampa Bay. The first stage included the approach of Frances up to the first wind peak. The winds were to the south and southeast. During this stage sea level was maintained below mean sea level (MSL) and the residual current (demeaned, detided) was weak. The second stage began as the winds turned to the east and northeast, as the eye passed near the bay, and ended as the second wind peak appeared. During this stage the residual currents were strongly positive (into the bay), raising sea level to 1.2 m above MSL at St. Petersburg. The measured residual circulation peaked at over +0.7 m s⁻¹ near the surface. The model shows this velocity peak yielded a maximum volume flux into the bay of +44,227 m³ s⁻¹, displacing a total volume of 1.5 billion m³ in just a few hours, about 42% of the bay volume. In the third stage a strong negative flow developed as the wind and sea level relaxed to near normal levels. The ADCP measured a peak outflow of −0.8 m s⁻¹ during this time. Model results indicate a maximum flux of −37,575 m³ s⁻¹, and that it took about 50 h to drain the extra volume driven into the bay by Hurricane Frances.     

Monte Carlo simulation of mixing in Ca3Fe2Ge3O12–Ca4Ge4O12 garnets and implications for the thermodynamic stability of pyrope–majorite solid solution

Static lattice energy calculations, based on empirical pair potentials, were performed for a large set of structures differing in the arrangement of octahedral cations within the garnet 2 × 2 × 2 supercell. The compositions of these structures varied between Ca₃Fe₂Ge₃O₁₂ and Ca₄Ge₄O₁₂. The energies were cluster expanded using pair and quaternary terms. The derived ordering constants were used to constrain Monte Carlo simulations of temperature-dependent mixing properties in the ranges of 1,073–3,673 K and 0–10 GPa. The free energies of mixing were calculated using the method of thermodynamic integration. The calculations predict a wide miscibility gap between Fe-rich (cubic) and Fe-pure (tetragonal) garnets consistent with recent experimental observations of Iezzi et al. (Phys Chem Miner 32:197–207, 2005). It is shown that the miscibility gap arises due to a very strong cation ordering at the Fe-pure composition, driven by the charge difference between Ca²⁺ and Ge⁴⁺ cations. The structural and thermodynamic analogies between Ca–Ge and Mg–Si systems suggest that a similar miscibility gap should exist between pyrope and Mg–Si-majorite.     

The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.