An investigation of numerical errors in the analysis of consolidation by finite elements

A smoothing technique is developed to remove the oscillatory errors in initial nodal pore pressures, associated with the use of quadratic isoparametric elements to model soil consolidation. Numerical results using this technique are compared with the performance of other types of element in problems of one-and two-dimensional consolidation.     

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO₂. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO₂ levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.     

Late Pleistocene Vertebrates and Other Fossils from Epiguruk, Northwestern Alaska

Sediments exposed at Epiguruk, a large cutbank on the Kobuk River about 170 km inland from Kotzebue Sound, record multiple episodes of glacial-age alluviation followed by interstadial downcutting and formation of paleosols. Vertebrate remains from Epiguruk include mammoth, bison, caribou, an equid, a canid, arctic ground squirrel, lemmings, and voles. Radiocarbon ages of bone validated by concordant ages of peat and wood span the interval between about 37,000 and 14,000 yr B.P. The late Pleistocene pollen record is dominated by Cyperaceae, with Artemisia, Salix, Betula, and Gramineae also generally abundant. The fossil record from Epiguruk indicates that the Kobuk River valley supported tundra vegetation with abundant riparian willows during middle and late Wisconsin time. Large herbivores were present during the height of late Wisconsin glaciation as well as during its waning stage and the preceding interstadial interval. The Kobuk River valley would have been a favorable refugium for plants, animals, and possibly humans throughout the last glaciation.     

Relating groundwater to seasonal wetlands in southeastern Wisconsin, USA

Historically, drier types of wetlands have been difficult to characterize and are not well researched. Nonetheless, they are considered to reflect the precipitation history with little, if any, regard for possible relation to groundwater. Two seasonal coastal wetland types (wet prairie, sedge meadow) were investigated during three growing seasons at three sites in the Lake Michigan Basin, Wisconsin, USA. The six seasonal wetlands were characterized using standard soil and vegetation techniques and groundwater measurements from the shallow and deep systems. They all met wetland hydrology criteria (e.g., water within 30 cm of land surface for 5% of the growing season) during the early portion of the growing season despite the lack of appreciable regional groundwater discharge into the wetland root zones. Although root-zone duration analyses did not fit a lognormal distribution previously noted in groundwater-dominated wetlands, they were able to discriminate between the plant communities and showed that wet prairie communities had shorter durations of continuous soil saturation than sedge meadow communities. These results demonstrate that the relative rates of groundwater outflows can be important for wetland hydrology and resulting wetland type. Thus, regional stresses to the shallow groundwater system such as pumping or low Great Lake levels can be expected to affect even drier wetland types.     

Control strategies for the Clam Wave Energy Device

A promising wave energy device being currently investigated is the ‘clam’. The clam extracts energy by pumping air through a specially designed (Wells) turbine. Although operation of the Wells turbine does not require a rectified air flow, some additional control will be necessary to optimize the phase of the clam motion for good efficiencies. An examination of the equation of motion in the time domain suggests the possibility of phase control by mechanical, power take-off, or pneumatic latching. Latching can be shown to increase the efficiency of the device in the longer wavelengths of the wave spectrum, i.e. those of high incident wave power. Equivalently latching could be used to keep the device efficiency high while reducing its size, possibly resulting in cheaper power extraction.     

Cytochrome P4501A biomarker indication of the timeline of chronic exposure of Barrow's goldeneyes to residual Exxon Valdez oil

We examined hepatic EROD activity, as an indicator of CYP1A induction, in Barrow’s goldeneyes captured in areas oiled during the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill and those from nearby unoiled areas. We found that average EROD activity differed between areas during 2005, although the magnitude of the difference was reduced relative to a previous study from 1996/1997, and we found that areas did not differ by 2009. Similarly, we found that the proportion of individuals captured from oiled areas with elevated EROD activity (?2 times unoiled average) declined from 41% in winter 1996/1997 to 10% in 2005 and 15% in 2009. This work adds to a body of literature describing the timelines over which vertebrates were exposed to residual Exxon Valdez oil and indicates that, for Barrow’s goldeneyes in Prince William Sound, exposure persisted for many years with evidence of substantially reduced exposure by 2 decades after the spill.     

Magmatic gas scrubbing: implications for volcano monitoring

Despite the abundance of SO_2(g) in magmatic gases, precursory increases in magmatic SO_2(g) are not always observed prior to volcanic eruption, probably because many terrestrial volcanoes contain abundant groundwater or surface water that scrubs magmatic gases until a dry pathway to the atmosphere is established. To better understand scrubbing and its implications for volcano monitoring, we model thermochemically the reaction of magmatic gases with water. First, we inject a 915°C magmatic gas from Merapi volcano into 25°C air-saturated water (ASW) over a wide range of gas/water mass ratios from 0.0002 to 100 and at a total pressure of 0.1 MPa. Then we model closed-system cooling of the magmatic gas, magmatic gas-ASW mixing at 5.0 MPa, runs with varied temperature and composition of the ASW, a case with a wide range of magmatic–gas compositions, and a reaction of a magmatic gas–ASW mixture with rock. The modeling predicts gas and water compositions, and, in one case, alteration assemblages for a wide range of scrubbing conditions; these results can be compared directly with samples from degassing volcanoes. The modeling suggests that CO_2(g) is the main species to monitor when scrubbing exists; another candidate is H₂S_(g), but it can be affected by reactions with aqueous ferrous iron. In contrast, scrubbing by water will prevent significant SO_2(g) and most HCl_(g) emissions until dry pathways are established, except for moderate HCl_(g) degassing from pH<0.5 hydrothermal waters. Furthermore, it appears that scrubbing will prevent much, if any, SO_2(g) degassing from long-resident boiling hydrothermal systems. Several processes can also decrease or increase H_2(g) emissions during scrubbing making H_2(g) a poor choice to detect changes in magma degassing.We applied the model results to interpret field observations and emission rate data from four eruptions: (1) Crater Peak on Mount Spurr (1992) where, except for a short post-eruptive period, scrubbing appears to have drastically diminished pre-, inter-, and post-eruptive SO_2(g) emissions, but had much less impact on CO_2(g) emissions. (2) Mount St. Helens where scrubbing of SO_2(g) was important prior to and three weeks after the 18 May 1980 eruption. Scrubbing was also active during a period of unrest in the summer of 1998. (3) Mount Pinatubo where early drying out prevented SO_2(g) scrubbing before the climactic 15 June 1991 eruption. (4) The ongoing eruption at Popocatépetl in an arid region of Mexico where there is little evidence of scrubbing.In most eruptive cycles, the impact of scrubbing will be greater during pre- and post-eruptive periods than during the main eruptive and intense passive degassing stages. Therefore, we recommend monitoring the following gases: CO_2(g) and H₂S_(g) in precursory stages; CO_2(g), H₂S_(g), SO_2(g), HCl_(g), and HF_(g) in eruptive and intense passive degassing stages; and CO_2(g) and H₂S_(g) again in the declining stages. CO_2(g) is clearly the main candidate for early emission rate monitoring, although significant early increases in the intensity and geographic distribution of H₂S_(g) emissions should be taken as an important sign of volcanic unrest and a potential precursor. Owing to the difficulty of extracting SO_2(g) from hydrothermal waters, the emergence of >100 t/d (tons per day) of SO_2(g) in addition to CO_2(g) and H₂S_(g) should be taken as a criterion of magma intrusion. Finally, the modeling suggests that the interpretation of gas-ratio data requires a case-by-case evaluation since ratio changes can often be produced by several mechanisms; nevertheless, several gas ratios may provide useful indices for monitoring the drying out of gas pathways.     

A three-tiered approach to participatory vulnerability assessment in the Solomon Islands

Greater recognition of the seriousness of global environmental change has led to an increase in research that assesses the vulnerability of households, communities and regions to changing environmental or economic conditions. So far, however, there has been relatively little attention given to how assessments can be conducted in ways that help build capacity for local communities to understand and find their own solutions to their problems. This paper reports on an approach that was designed and used to work with a local grass roots organization in the Solomon Islands to promote inclusivity and participation in decision-making and to build the capacity of the organization to reduce the vulnerability of communities to drivers of change. The process involved working collaboratively with the organization and training its members to conduct vulnerability assessments with communities using participatory and deliberative methods. To make best use of the learning opportunities provided by the research process, specific periods for formal reflection were incorporated for the three key stakeholders involved: the primary researchers; research assistants; and community members. Overall, the approach: (1) promoted learning about the current situation in Kahua and encouraged deeper analysis of problems; (2) built capacity for communities to manage the challenges they were facing; and (3) fostered local ownership and responsibility for problems and set precedents for future participation in decision-making. While the local organization and the communities it serves still face significant challenges, the research approach set the scene for greater local participation and effort to maintain and enhance livelihoods and wellbeing. The outcomes highlight the need for greater emphasis on embedding participatory approaches in vulnerability assessments for communities to benefit fully from the process.     

Geopotential topography of deep levels in the Pacific Ocean

After examination of the baroclinic structure below 3000 db, recent data were used to map the geopotential topography at 1000, 1500, and 2000 db (referred to 3000 db) in the Pacific Ocean. In the high-latitude regions and in the western boundary currents, considerable relief is present at 1000 and 1500 db, and the Circumpolar Current is still well-developed at 2000 db. The geostrophic circulation inferred is very similar to the surface circulation in these areas. Neglect of the structure below 1000 db results in appreciable errors in estimates of the transport of these currents; direction of near-surface flow is properly shown, however, and computed speeds are not greatly in error. In the equatorial Pacific and central North Pacific, little relief is present, and the trends are generally unlike the surface flow.