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To better understand the implications of anthropogenic climate change for three major Mid-Atlantic estuaries (the Chesapeake Bay, the Delaware Bay, and the Hudson River Estuary), we analyzed the regional output of seven global climate models. The simulation given by the average of the models was generally superior to individual models, which differed dramatically in their ability to simulate twentieth-century climate. The model average had little bias in its mean temperature and precipitation and, except in the Lower Chesapeake Watershed, was able to capture the twentieth-century temperature trend. Weaknesses in the model average were too much seasonality in temperature and precipitation, a shift in precipitation’s summer maximum to spring and winter minimum to fall, interannual variability that was too high in temperature and too low in precipitation, and inability to capture the twentieth-century precipitation increase. There is some evidence that model deficiencies are related to land surface parameterizations. All models warmed over the twenty-first century under the six greenhouse gas scenarios considered, with an increase of 4.7 ± 2.0°C (model mean ± 1 standard deviation) for the A2 scenario (a medium-high emission scenario) over the Chesapeake Bay Watershed by 2070–2099. Precipitation projections had much weaker consensus, with a corresponding increase of 3 ± 12% for the A2 scenario, but in winter there was a more consistent increase of 8 ± 7%. The projected climate averaged over the four best-performing models was significantly cooler and wetter than the projected seven-model-average climate. Precipitation projections were within the range of interannual variability but temperature projections were not. The implied research needs are for improvements in precipitation projections and a better understanding of the impacts of warming on streamflow and estuarine ecology and biogeochemistry. 相似文献
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Comparisons of xylem sap flow and water vapour flux at the stand level and derivation of canopy conductance for Scots pine 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
A. Granier P. Biron B. Köstner L. W. Gay G. Najjar 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1996,53(1-3):115-122
Summary Simultaneous measurements of xylem sap flow and water vapour flux over a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forest (Hartheim, Germany), were carried out during the Hartheim Experiment (HartX), an intensive observation campaign of the international programme REKLIP. Sap flow was measured every 30 min using both radial constant heating (Granier, 1985) and two types of Cermak sap flowmeters installed on 24 trees selected to cover a wide range of the diameter classes of the stand (min 8 cm; max 17.5 cm). Available energy was high during the observation period (5.5 to 6.9 mm.day–1), and daily cumulated sap flow on a ground area basis varied between 2.0 and 2.7 mm day–1 depending on climate conditions. Maximum hourly values of sap flow reached 0.33 mm h–1, i.e., 230 W m–2.Comparisons of sap flow with water vapour flux as measured with two OPEC (One Propeller Eddy Correlation, University of Arizona) systems showed a time lag between the two methods, sap flow lagging about 90 min behind vapour flux. After taking into account this time lag in the sap flow data set, a good agreement was found between both methods: sap flow = 0.745* vapour flux,r
2 = 0.86. The difference between the two estimates was due to understory transpiration.Canopy conductance (g
c
) was calculated from sap flow measurements using the reverse form of Penman-Monteith equation and climatic data measured 4 m above the canopy. Variations ofg
c
were well correlated (r
2 = 0.85) with global radiation (R) and vapour pressure deficit (vpd). The quantitative expression forg
c
=f (R, vpd) was very similar to that previously found with maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) in the forest of Les Landes, South Western France.With 6 Figures 相似文献
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K.E. Bailey D.A. Toole B. Blomquist R.G. Najjar B. Huebert D.J. Kieber R.P. Kiene P. Matrai G.R. Westby D.A. del Valle 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2008,55(10-13):1491
Lagrangian time series of dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentrations from a cyclonic and an anticyclonic eddy in the Sargasso Sea were used in conjunction with measured DMS loss rates and a model of vertical mixing to estimate gross DMS production in the upper 60 m during summer 2004. Loss terms included biological consumption, photolysis, and ventilation to the atmosphere. The time- and depth (0–60 m)-averaged gross DMS production was estimated to be 0.73±0.09 nM d−1 in the cyclonic eddy and 0.90±0.15 nM d−1 in the anticyclonic eddy, with respective DMS replacement times of 5±1 and 6±1 d. The higher estimated rate of gross production and lower measured loss rate constants in the anticyclonic eddy were equally responsible for this eddy's 50% higher DMS inventory (0–60 m). When normalized to chlorophyll and total dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP), estimated gross production in the anticyclonic eddy was about twice that in the cyclonic eddy, consistent with the greater fraction of phytoplankton that were DMSP producers in the anticyclonic eddy. Higher rates of gross production were estimated below the mixed layer, contributing to the subsurface DMS maximum found in both eddies. In both eddies, gas exchange, microbial consumption, and photolysis were roughly equal DMS loss terms in the surface mixed layer (0.2–0.4 nM d−1). Vertical mixing was a substantial source of DMS to the surface mixed layer in both eddies (0.2–0.3 nM d−1) owing to the relatively high DMS concentrations below the mixed layer. Estimated net biological DMS production rates (gross production minus microbial consumption) in the mixed layer were substantially lower (by almost a factor of 3) than those estimated in a previous study of the Sargasso Sea, which may explain the relatively low mixed-layer DMS concentrations found here during July 2004 (3 nM) compared to previous summers (4–6 nM). 相似文献
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Hydrographic data collected in cyclonic eddies in the Mozambique Channel and Basin revealed notable differences in temperature and salinity at a depth of 100 m, the upper mixed layer, the nitracline depths, and vertical distribution of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). Differences in temperature and salinity did not show any consistent patterns. In contrast, the differences in the upper mixed layer, nitracline depths and the vertical Chl-a profile appeared to be driven by combined effects of eddy dynamics (i.e. shoaling of isopleths) and the seasonal variation in light availability and mixing conditions in the upper layers. Cyclonic eddies studied during austral spring and summer in the Mozambique Channel exhibited shallower upper mixed layers and nitracline depths, and deeper euphotic zones. Distinct subsurface Chl-a maxima (SCM) were associated with the stratified conditions in the upper layers of these eddies. In contrast, a cyclonic eddy studied during mid-austral winter in the Mozambique Basin had a shallower euphotic zone, deeper upper mixed layer and uniform Chl-a profiles. Another eddy sampled in the Mozambique Basin toward the end of winter showed a less pronounced SCM and roughly equal euphotic zone and upper mixed layer depths, suggestive of a transition from a well-mixed upper layer during winter to stratified conditions in summer. 相似文献
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PETER EMIL KALAND KNUT KRZYWINSKI BJØRG STABELL 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》1984,13(2):243-258
In three different areas in western Norway, large errors are obtained in the radiocarbon dates from lacustrine sediments close to marine/lacustrine sediment boundaries. Differences occur between radiocar-bon and pollenanalytic dates and between dates at isolation/ingression contacts for lakes of the same altitude above the present sea level. Younger radiocarbon dates are also obtained below older ones in undisturbed sediments. When divergent dates occur, the radiocarbon dates always seem to be the youngest. Large differences are also found between NaOH soluble and insoluble fractions of the same sediment samples. Insoluble fractions generally yield younger dates than the soluble. Differences are not found, however, for dates younger than about 8,000 B.P. The dating errors are connected to periods with more oligotrophic conditions with isoetides. Their roots penetrate older sediments. Due to contamination of the organic part of the sediment from partly decomposed roots, some radiocarbon dates will be too young. The isoetide vegetation and the dating errors disappear when the lakes become dystrophic. 相似文献