Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.     

The buckling of plastic oblate hemi-ellipsoidal dome shells under external hydrostatic pressure

The paper presents a theoretical and an experimental investigation into the buckling of seven oblate hemi-ellipsoidal dome shells under external hydrostatic pressure. Four of the shells were made in glass reinforced plastic and three were made from a thermosetting plastic called solid urethane plastic. All the vessels were tested to destruction. The theoretical study was made with the aid of a non-linear finite element solution, where both geometrical and material non-linearity were allowed for. Good agreement was found between experiment and theory for all the vessels. The very oblate domes failed axisymmetrically. Theoretical convergence was good for the more oblate domes but it was not as good as for the less oblate domes. This may have been because the less oblate domes did not fail in a classical axisymmetric manner as was expected. This work is of much importance in ocean engineering.     

Geophysical and geochemical observations on actively seeping hydrocarbon gases on the south-eastern Yellow Sea continental shelf

In the southeastern Yellow Sea, active seepage of hydrocarbon gases has been observed by high-resolution (3.5 kHz) seismic profiling both in 1987 and 2001, occurring through a large number of plumes from the topmost pre-Holocene sedimentary layer. It is strong enough to compensate for current speed, extending vertically up to the sea surface. The gas seepage often appears to be explosive to form craters and diapirs, although pockmarks are rare due to the redistribution of mobile palimpsest sands. In core-top seawater and sediments, the gases are characterized by high amounts of C₂, homogenous ¹³C₁ values and a large difference (19.7 on average) between ¹³C₁ (–55.2 to –53.6 PDB) and ¹³C₂ (–36.8 to –32.5 PDB) values. The gases are considered to be generated with a smaller amount of C₁ at the early thermal cracking stage of labile source materials, after which the C₂ gas is enriched in ¹³C by diffusion or biological alternation at the generation or accumulation site. The homogenous ¹³C₁ values may be one of the geochemical characteristics of gases acquired at depth which are less altered in the case of rapid diffusive gas migration to the seafloor.     

Crustal complexity in the Lachlan Orogen revealed from teleseismic receiver functions

There is an ongoing debate about the tectonic evolution of southeast Australia, particularly about the causes and nature of its accretion to a much older Precambrian core to the west. Seismic imaging of the crust can provide useful clues to address this issue. Seismic tomography imaging is a powerful tool often employed to map elastic properties of the Earth's lithosphere, but in most cases does not constrain well the depth of discontinuities such as the Mohorovi?i? (Moho). In this study, an alternative imaging technique known as receiver function (RF) has been employed for seismic stations near Canberra in the Lachlan Orogen to investigate: (i) the shear-wave-velocity profile in the crust and uppermost mantle, (ii) variations in the Moho depth beneath the Lachlan Orogen, and (iii) the nature of the transition between the crust and mantle. A number of styles of RF analyses were conducted: H-K stacking to obtain the best compressional–shear velocity (V _P /V _S) ratio and crustal thickness; nonlinear inversion for the shear-wave-velocity structure and inversion of the observed variations in RFs with back-azimuth to investigate potential dipping of the crustal layers and anisotropy. The thick crust (up to 48 km) and the mostly intermediate nature of the crust?mantle transition in the Lachlan Orogen could be due to the presence of underplating at the base of the crust, and possibly to the existing thick piles of Ordovician mafic rocks present in the mid and lower crust. Results from numerical modelling of RFs at three seismic stations (CAN, CNB and YNG) suggest that the observed variations with back-azimuth could be related to a complex structure beneath these stations with the likelihood of both a dipping Moho and crustal anisotropy. Our analysis reveals crustal thickening to the west beneath CAN station which could be due to slab convergence. The crustal thickening may also be related to the broad Macquarie volcanic arc, which is rooted to the Moho. The crustal anisotropy may arise from a strong N–S structural trend in the eastern Lachlan Orogen and to the preferred crystallographic orientation of seismically anisotropic minerals in the lower and middle crust related to the paleo-Pacific plate convergence.     

Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993–2010 and model reanalysis over 1981–2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981–2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.     

Zum biochemischen Harnstoffabbau in wäßriger Lösung — Übersicht

Urea from natural and anthropogenic sources is one of the most interesting nitrogen compounds in an aquatic environment. Results of experimental investigations are presented for the successive biochemical urea transformation into nitrates via ammonium and nitrite species. Kinetic models based on a combination of Michaelis-Menten and Monod equations have been derived which describe reasonably well the course of the enzymatic reactions and the concentration-time profiles of different N oxydation states. Main factors affecting the rates of nitrogen metabolization are the initial concentration of ureolytic bacteria, the physical state of the nitrifying microorganisms, and the concentration of toxic organics added to the system under study.     

Ammonia-water ice laboratory studies relevant to outer Solar System surfaces

Although water- and ammonia-ices have been observed or postulated as important components of the icy surfaces of planetary satellites in the outer Solar System, significant gaps exist in our knowledge of the spectra and behavior of such mixtures under astrophysical conditions. To that end, we have completed low-temperature spectroscopic studies (1-20 μm) of water-ammonia mixtures, with an emphasis on features in the near-IR, a region which is accessible to ground-based observations. The influences of composition, formation temperature, thermal- and radiation-processing, and phase (crystalline or amorphous) of the components were examined. Spectra of both pure NH₃ and H₂O-NH₃ icy mixtures with ratios from 0.7 to 57 were measured at temperatures from 10 to 120 K. Conditions for the formation and thermal stability of the ammonia hemihydrate (2NH₃⋅H₂O) and the ammonia monohydrate (NH₃⋅H₂O) have been examined. Band positions of NH₃ in different H₂O-ices and major band positions of the hydrates were measured. We report spectral shifts that depend on concentration and temperature. The radiation-induced amorphization of the hemihydrate was observed and the radiation destruction of NH₃ in H₂O-ices was measured. Implications of these results for the formation, stability, and detection of ammonia on outer satellite surfaces are discussed.     

Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 1. Small catchment water balance model

A long-term water balance model has been developed to predict the hydrological effects of land-use change (especially forest clearing) in small experimental catchments in the south-west of Western Australia. This small catchment model has been used as the building block for the development of a large catchment-scale model, and has also formed the basis for a coupled water and salt balance model, developed to predict the changes in stream salinity resulting from land-use and climate change. The application of the coupled salt and water balance model to predict stream salinities in two small experimental catchments, and the application of the large catchment-scale model to predict changes in water yield in a medium-sized catchment that is being mined for bauxite, are presented in Parts 2 and 3, respectively, of this series of papers. The small catchment model has been designed as a simple, robust, conceptually based model of the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments. The responses of the catchment to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three interdependent subsurface stores A, B and F. Store A depicts a near-stream perched aquifer system; B represents a deeper, permanent groundwater system; and F is an intermediate, unsaturated infiltration store. The responses of these stores are characterized by a set of constitutive relations which involves a number of conceptual parameters. These parameters are estimated by calibration by comparing observed and predicted runoff. The model has performed very well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in the Collie River basin in south-west Western Australia. The results from the application of the model to these small catchments are presented in this paper.     

Current convection in solar active regions

Current carrying magnetic fields which penetrate sunspots can be unstable to current convective modes caused by the large gradient of electrical conductivity. The linear growth rates and wavelengths of the unstable modes are found. The unstable modes produce fine-scale vortices perpendicular to the magnetic field, which overshoot well into the solar corona. The modes provide a turbulent vorticity source at the photospheric footpoints of the field. This can cause braiding and reconnection of the coronal magnetic field. The modes twist the coronal magnetic field into loops with a typical radius of 200 km, consistent with recent X-ray observations.