Possible climate change/variability and human impacts,vulnerability of drought-prone regions,water resources and capacity building for Africa

ABSTRACT

This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and land use for drought-prone regions in West, southern and the Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid 20th century. Based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying, such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st century and could become more vulnerable to the impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase by up to 8°C (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which could also affect the water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions are also discussed. Given that traditional climate and hydrological data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill the data gap for Africa in the future.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor N. Ilich     

地震前兆仪器管理系统建设

长期以来,对前兆台网仪器的管理缺乏系统性。为此,研发了前兆仪器管理系统。该系统实现了对前兆仪器从购买到淘汰整个生命周期的管理,其中包括安装、接入、运行、故障、停测、报废等,以及仪器故障维修流程的管理,其中包括故障登记、处理、维修、备机备件库等。基于这些信息,对仪器及故障维修情况进行综合统计分析,为管理决策提供信息支持。本文主要介绍了该系统设计的一些主要技术方面和系统实现的主要功能。     

简单海-气边界层模式中的埃克曼流动Ⅰ——无限深海的情形

近十余年来,海洋和大气相互作用这一课题日益受到人们的关注。从海-气边界层结构以及通过海面的物理量和化学量输送机制的研究到大尺度海洋和大气相互作用的研究都取得了可喜的成果。此外,还从海洋和大气相互作用的观点探索了风暴潮预报的新的可能途径^[2]。然而,由于问题的复杂性,通过海面以及海-气边界层的物理量的小尺度输送机制迄未得到澄清,企图从本质上改善大尺度海洋和大气相互作用的理论是不现实的。     

Frequency-dependent rupture process,stress change,and seismogenic mechanism of the 25 April 2015 Nepal Gorkha <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.8 earthquake

On 25 April 2015, an M _w 7.8 earthquake occurred on the Main Himalaya Thrust fault with a dip angle of ~ 7° about 77 km northwest of Kathmandu, Nepal. This Nepal Gorkha event is the largest one on the Himalayan thrust belt since 1950. Here we use the compressive sensing method in the frequency domain to track the seismic radiation and rupture process of this event using teleseismic P waves recorded by array stations in North America. We also compute the distribution of static shear stress changes on the fault plane from a coseismic slip model. Our results indicate a dominant east-southeastward unilateral rupture process from the epicenter with an average rupture speed of ~3 km s^?1. Coseismic radiation of this earthquake shows clear frequency-dependent features. The lower frequency (0.05–0.3 Hz) radiation mainly originates from large coseismic slip regions with negative coseismic shear stress changes. In comparison, higher frequency (0.3–0.6 Hz) radiation appears to be from the down-dip part around the margin of large slip areas, which has been loaded and presents positive coseismic shear stress changes. We propose an asperity model to interpret this Nepal earthquake sequence and compare the frequency-dependent coseismic radiation with that in subduction zones. Such frequency-dependent radiation indicates the depth-varying frictional properties on the plate interface of the Nepal section in the main Himalaya thrust system, similar to previous findings in oceanic subduction zones. Our findings provide further evidence of the spatial correlation between changes of static stress status on the fault plane and the observed frequency-dependent coseismic radiation during large earthquakes. Our results show that the frequency-dependent coseismic radiation is not only found for megathrust earthquakes in the oceanic subduction environment, but also holds true for thrust events in the continental collision zone.     

内蒙古索伦山蛇绿岩锆石U-Pb年代学、地球化学特征及其地质意义

为加深对中亚造山带东段晚古生代构造背景的认识,选取内蒙古索伦山蛇绿岩中较新鲜的玄武岩和辉长岩开展岩相学、年代学和地球化学研究。结果表明,玄武岩和辉长岩的LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb谐和年龄分别为(276.4±1.4) Ma和(273.9±3.3) Ma,形成于早二叠世。二者均为亚碱性拉斑系列,Mg^#分别变化于41～50和62～65之间,均低于幔源原生岩浆值;主量元素与SiO₂含量之间具有一定的线性关系,反映岩浆演化过程中分离结晶占主要地位。两种岩石的Th/La、Th/Ce和Lu/Yb值均低于大陆地壳的平均值,而与幔源岩浆的比值接近,推测岩浆演化过程中地壳混染的影响不大。稀土元素组成上,玄武岩表现为轻稀土亏损的N-MORB特征,可能起源于尖晶石二辉橄榄岩亏损地幔的5%～10%部分熔融;辉长岩具有轻稀土略亏损、整体平坦的稀土特征,但稀土元素总量明显比N-MORB更亏损,是源区熔融程度更大所致。此外,二者都富集K、Sr、Ba和Pb等大离子亲石元素而亏损Nb、Ta等高场强元素,具有岛弧岩浆特征,指示它们遭受了俯冲板片含水流体或者俯冲沉积物熔体的影响...     

重庆大学危岩锚固工程简介

重庆大学18层高层建筑物拟建在嘉陵江高陡斜坡脚下,斜坡上部陡崖为侏罗系上沙溪庙组巨厚层砂岩,岩石原生及岸剪裂隙发育,危岩直接威胁着建筑物。川地208队采用锚杆加固及涂抹砂浆水泥护坡综合防治工程,效果明显。     

贵州省矿业开发引起的环境问题及其成因探讨

矿业开发给贵州省造成严重的生态环境问题,主要包括环境污染,矿业荒漠化和环境地质灾害。虽然贵州省矿产开发的历史比较悠久,但解放前的生态破坏和矿业污染仅局限在个别地区,解放后出现的三次大规模资源环境破坏,给贵州省矿业可持续发展带来严重影响,特别是改革开放以来矿山资源的无序开发对环境的危害最重。导致贵州省矿业环境问题的主要因素包括：矿产资源价值的严重扭曲,乡镇企业的超常规发展,部分政府官员的权力寻租,以及资源导向型的脱贫模式等。     

南苏鲁芝麻房石榴石橄榄岩中橄榄石的“C”类组构及其形成条件探讨

上地幔地震的各向异性主要归因于橄榄石的优选方位,不同的橄榄石优选方位模式可以作为上地幔不同动力学作用的指示剂。不同应力和含水量条件下的高温变形实验已经确定出五类橄榄石组构模式(“A”型、“B”型、“C”型、“D”型和“E”型)。本文运用电子背散射(EBSD)技术对来自苏鲁超高压变质带南部的芝麻房石榴石橄榄岩的橄榄石进行了优选方位测定,不同变形程度的橄榄石均显示了[100]轴近垂直于面理和[001]轴近平行于线理的特征,为“C”类组构模式,可见组构类型与变形程度没有关系,并且橄榄石组构所显示的NW向SE的剪切指向,与围岩-正、副片麻岩中形成于折返过程的石英优选方位所显示的SE向NW的剪切指向完全不同,说明芝麻房石榴石橄榄岩中橄榄石的“C”类组构是折返前形成的。结合橄榄石结构水的测量和已有的芝麻房石榴石橄榄岩形成的温压条件,推测该组构形成于含水俯冲带中,认为芝麻房石榴石橄榄岩的原岩来自于高含水的上部地幔楔碎块,与俯冲的陆壳物质一起经历了超高压变质作用并最终折返至地表。     

混凝土重力坝双滑面抗力方向角的取值研究

在《混凝土重力坝设计规范》(SL319-2005)中标准双滑面的稳定性程度推荐采用等K法进行计算,但对于抗力方向角的选取并没有统一的标准,研究表明,该方法中抗力角的选取对计算结果比较敏感。为了得到合理的抗力方向角,采用Sarma法、有限元法及刚体极限平衡法中的无条分法对抗力角的选取进行了深入的探讨,并给出了抗力方向角的选取建议。最后通过具体混凝土重力坝工程实例,依据抗力角的选取建议对其沿缓倾角软弱结构面的抗滑稳定问题进行分析,并给出了其最危险滑移面。     

大同遥测地震台网小震群活动与大同-阳高中强地震预报讨论

根据大同遥测地震台网记录到的小震群资料，用组合模式理论［１］对本区的小震群时空演化规律进行了分析研究。结果表明，对于１９８９年１０月１８日在本区发生的大同—阳高５．８级地震，利用震前小震群资料得出的预报震中与实际震中有较好的一致性。另外，通过震群与外因相关性的分析，对发震时间的预报也取得了较好的效果