区域自动气象站蓄电池异常状态判别方法

针对天津市一种常见的CAWS600型区域自动气象站对其供电及功耗进行了详细分析,利用对电池放电特性曲线的归一化处理,得到了针对12V38AH铅酸蓄电池的剩余容量估算方法,同时利用该站蓄电池工作电压的统计规律,提出了针对蓄电池工作电压的极值判定、时间/空间一致性质量控制方法,并对2017年逐10min观测数据进行检验。检验结果显示,文章提出的质量控制方法可以有效识别出蓄电池异常站点,针对2017年个站蓄电池持续放电情况可提前10d定位。     

基于暴雨内涝模型的天津市西青区中小河流暴雨洪涝灾害评估

利用ARCGIS对天津市西青区的高精度地理信息数据、排水设施和排水方式进行预处理,以西青区下垫面和明渠河道的水流运动为模拟对象,建立天津市西青区中小河流暴雨洪涝仿真模型。以区内14条二级河道的水位变化作为模型的动态侧边界条件,针对2016年7月20日的大暴雨过程,设计了4个模拟方案,对河道高水位及暴雨造成的洪涝淹没过程进行评估,并将模拟结果与实际调查内涝灾情进行对比,结果表明,模型可以较客观地反映暴雨和河道水位变化对城镇造成的内涝灾害情况。     

碳市场顶层设计路线图

中国正面临着低碳减排和保持经济增速的双重挑战。为利用碳排放权交易机制以最低的社会成本实现减排目标,我国自2013年起开始建设碳排放权交易试点,并于2017年12月起宣布正式启动全国碳市场。然而碳市场的顶层设计不可一蹴而就,需要在我国宏观经济改革的大背景下分阶段逐步推进。短期（2020年前）碳市场建设重在强化产权制度建设,完善市场交易基础。中期（2021—2030年）碳市场建设要形成活跃的市场氛围,充分降低我国的温室气体达峰成本。长期（2031—2050年）碳市场建设要形成稳定上升的碳价趋势,为我国的低碳转型提供长期动力。     

The Representativeness of Air Quality Monitoring Sites in the Urban Areas of a Mountainous City

Lanzhou is a typical mountainous city with severe air pollution in northwestern China. This study uses hourly observational data of air pollutants at five air quality monitoring sites in Lanzhou from July to December 2015 to discuss data quality control and the representativeness of the monitoring sites(four urban sites and one suburban site). A fuzzy matrix is applied to study primary air pollutants. The results show that of the six routinely monitored pollutants,the primary pollutant is PM_10 during the study period. Based on lag correlation analysis and one-way analysis of variance, it is concluded that there are redundant observations at the four urban sites for the timely diffusion and transport of air pollutants from the same general area. The coefficient of divergence(COD) method is then used to evaluate the spatial distribution differences, and the primary air pollutant PM_10 shows differences at each site. COD can be used as a positive indicator to describe site representativeness. To evaluate the overall air pollution in the valley, correlation analysis is performed between the PM_10 concentration retrieved from aerosol optical depth satellite data and the concentration from the four urban monitoring sites. Among these, the correlation between the workers' hospital site data and the retrieval data is the highest, passing the 90% confidence level. A new representative evaluation model for air quality monitoring sites, R_s = 0.77 COD + 0.23R_(retrieval), is established by using COD and correlation coefficients between routine observations and satellite retrieval products. From this model, it can be concluded that the biological products institute site in Lanzhou is the most representative site for the evaluation of air pollution out of the four urban air quality monitoring sites from July to December 2015.     

长岛县旅游气候舒适度分析

气候舒适度是影响一个地区旅游资源开发和发展以及旅游季节游客数量的重要因素。利用长岛国家基本气象站1986—2015年的气温、降水、风速、相对湿度和日照时数等与旅游气候舒适度相关的气象观测资料,对山东省烟台市长岛县气候舒适度进行研究计算,划分出长岛适宜于旅游的季节分布;结合2011—2015年长岛县游客的月统计资料,分析研究长岛旅游气候舒适度与游客数量之间对应关系。结果表明:长岛县5—10月均较适宜旅游,其中最佳旅游时间段为6—9月,其他月份气候舒适度等级较低,基本不适合旅游。旅游游客数量与气候舒适度密切相关,综合气候舒适度指数每变化一个单位,长岛县游客数量月指数增加2.098个百分点。     

Progress in Semi-arid Climate Change Studies in China

This article reviews recent progress in semi-arid climate change research in China.Results indicate that the areas of semiarid regions have increased rapidly during recent years in China,with an increase of 33%during 1994-2008 compared to 1948-62.Studies have found that the expansion rate of semi-arid areas over China is nearly 10 times higher than that of arid and sub-humid areas,and is mainly transformed from sub-humid/humid regions.Meanwhile,the greatest warming during the past 100 years has been observed over semi-arid regions in China,and mainly induced by radiatively forced processes.The intensity of the regional temperature response over semi-arid regions has been amplified by land-atmosphere interactions and human activities.The decadal climate variation in semi-arid regions is modulated by oceanic oscillations,which induce land-sea and north-south thermal contrasts and affect the intensities of westerlies,planetary waves and blocking frequencies.In addition,the drier climates in semi-arid regions across China are also associated with the weakened East Asian summer monsoon in recent years.Moreover,dust aerosols in semi-arid regions may have altered precipitation by affecting the local energy and hydrological cycles.Finally,semi-arid regions in China are projected to continuously expand in the 21st century,which will increase the risk of desertification in the near future.     

一次冰雹天气过程的云系发展演变及云物理特征研究

利用中尺度数值模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)的数值模拟,结合NECP/FNL再分析资料、地面、探空、多普勒雷达基数据和卫星产品等观测资料,综合分析了2014年3月30日发生在贵州省西南部的一次冰雹天气过程。研究了有利于冰雹发生的环流特征和环境条件,分析了冰雹云系的发展演变特征、云微物理结构特征,初步分析了冰雹形成的云物理机制。结果表明:此次冰雹天气是典型的低压辐合线型降雹类型,地面降雹位置位于700 hPa切变线和近地面辐合线附近及南侧;发生此次冰雹过程的对流云系经历了对流云系的初生阶段、合并加强阶段、成熟降雹阶段和东移阶段。贵州地区上空对流云系的微物理结构具有混合相云特征,高层为冰晶、雪,中层为云水、霰,低层为雨水、冰雹。霰和云水是形成雨水和冰雹的主要来源,霰撞冻过冷云水和霰的自动转化是冰雹形成的主要微物理机制。     

阿尔金断裂花海段新生代变形特征及时间

在地表地质调查并结合钻井资料分析的基础上,主要通过地震剖面的精细地质解释,对阿尔金断裂东段的构造变形特征进行了系统分析。认为阿尔金断裂经阿克塞至肃北向北东东方向延伸,既没有止于玉门市西北的宽台山,也没有延伸至金塔盆地,而是止于其间的花海盆地花探7井东侧。阿尔金断裂花海段的变形时间主要为渐新世晚期、上新世末期和晚更新世末,以后者最为强烈。与红柳峡段的对比说明变形强度自西向东逐渐减弱,变形方式主要为走滑兼逆冲,主要构造样式为半花状构造,并派生有一系列向南西西方向收敛的弧形断裂。     

黄土路堑边坡变形破坏机理的三轴试验研究

通过原状黄土的减压三轴压缩试验,研究了黄土边坡不同深度不同含水量土体的应力-应变关系,并与原状黄土的常规三轴试验结果进行了比较,发现减压三轴试验能合理地模拟和解释开挖卸荷作用下黄土边坡土体的变形与破坏过程。试验结果表明:坡脚开挖卸荷时,黄土边坡中浅层非饱和黄土易出现应变软化或塑性流动,强度较低,易产生较大变形,而深层饱和黄土仅在高围压下发生应变硬化,强度增加,在中低围压时均发生应变软化现象。分析认为黄土边坡特殊的工程地质条件,使得黄土边坡的特定部位在开挖卸荷作用下常形成了不利于土体稳定的含水量和围压组合,导致坡体特定部位的土体变形破坏,进而诱发边坡的变形破坏;开挖卸荷作用下黄土边坡变形破坏的力学机制应为蠕滑-压致拉裂或牵引式滑坡。     

基于计算机模拟模型LESS的落叶松林木质元素影响分析

目前大部分植被辐射传输模型在模拟太阳辐射与植被之间的相互作用过程时,将植物结构进行了简化,只保留了叶片的结构和空间分布特征,而忽略了木质元素(枝干等)对冠层反射特性的影响.计算机模拟模型LESS能够充分考虑植被的多种组分光谱和结构特征,精确模拟植被冠层内部的光散射和辐射过程.本文以地面实测数据为基础,发展了以单木为基本...